<p>大和發佈了一份研究報告，指出自四月以來，中國房地產板塊股票從低谷反彈超過 20%，主要是由於對一線城市（尤其是上海）已觸底的説法。然而，該券商並不相信這種復甦代表着結構性轉變，因為開發商和購房者目前都缺乏信心。</p>
<p>該券商解釋稱，四月份的房地產銷售超出預期，尤其是在傳統的淡季。新房和二手房銷售同比分別增長 2.4% 和 5.0%。復甦在一線城市尤為明顯，那裏新房和二手房銷售同比激增 20% 和 14%，強勁的勢頭延續到了勞動節假期。同時，二手房價格也顯示出穩定的跡象。然而，大和指出，二手市場的改善主要是由老舊、小户型和低價高租金的次標準公寓推動的。售價超過 500 萬人民幣的商品房銷售仍遠未復甦，同比下降 25%。此外，開發商迅速抓住了改善的市場情緒，四月份上海的新房預售許可證同比激增 70.8%。然而，少數項目已撤回折扣，這表明開發商和買家之間缺乏信心，這是結構性和可持續復甦的前提。</p>
<p>大和認為，如果一線城市的銷售勢頭持續，板塊股價在短期至中期內可能進一步上漲，儘管修正風險是真實存在的。該券商更傾向於真正接觸一線城市的國有開發商，而非私營開發商，因為後者在勢頭減弱時將面臨降級風險。其首選股票為華潤置地（01109.HK）+0.040 (+0.105%) 空頭頭寸 7161 萬美元；比例 28.165% 和中國海外發展（00688.HK）+0.230 (+1.438%) 空頭頭寸 4495 萬美元；比例 24.408%，均評級為買入。（ad/u）（香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026-05-13 12:25。）</p>

華潤置地

中國海外發展

<p>大和的研究報告指出，儘管中國房地產板塊股票自四月以來反彈超過 20%，但由於開發商和購房者信心持續不足，這一復甦並不被視為結構性。房地產銷售超出預期，尤其是在一線城市，但高端住宅銷售同比下降 25%。大和看好國有開發商，如華潤置地和中國海外發展，均被評級為買入，因為它們在當前市場中處於更有利的位置。報告警告儘管短期內價格上漲，但仍存在潛在的修正風險</p>

<p>Daiwa published a research report stating that since April, CN Home sector stocks have rebounded by more than 20% from their trough, mainly driven by claims that Tier-1 cities (especially Shanghai) have bottomed out. However, the broker is not convinced that the recovery represents a structural shift, as both developers and homebuyers currently lack confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大和發佈了一份研究報告，指出自四月以來，中國房地產板塊股票從低谷反彈超過 20%，主要是由於對一線城市（尤其是上海）已觸底的説法。然而，該券商並不相信這種復甦代表着結構性轉變，因為開發商和購房者目前都缺乏信心。</p>
</div><p>The broker explained that property sales in April beat expectations, particularly during the traditional slack season. Primary and secondary residential sales rose 2.4% YoY and 5.0% YoY, respectively. The recovery was especially evident in Tier-1 cities, where primary and secondary sales surged 20% YoY and 14% YoY, with strong momentum extending into the Labour Day holiday. Meanwhile, secondary home prices have also shown signs of stabilizing. However, Daiwa noted that the improvement in the secondary market was mainly driven by older, small-sized and substandard apartments with low prices and high rental yields. Sales of commodity housing priced above RMB5 million remain far from recovery, falling 25% YoY. In addition, developers swiftly seized the improved market sentiment, with new home pre-sale permits in Shanghai surging 70.8% YoY in April. Yet few projects have withdrawn discounts, indicating a lack of confidence among both developers and buyers a prerequisite for a structural and sustainable recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該券商解釋稱，四月份的房地產銷售超出預期，尤其是在傳統的淡季。新房和二手房銷售同比分別增長 2.4% 和 5.0%。復甦在一線城市尤為明顯，那裏新房和二手房銷售同比激增 20% 和 14%，強勁的勢頭延續到了勞動節假期。同時，二手房價格也顯示出穩定的跡象。然而，大和指出，二手市場的改善主要是由老舊、小户型和低價高租金的次標準公寓推動的。售價超過 500 萬人民幣的商品房銷售仍遠未復甦，同比下降 25%。此外，開發商迅速抓住了改善的市場情緒，四月份上海的新房預售許可證同比激增 70.8%。然而，少數項目已撤回折扣，這表明開發商和買家之間缺乏信心，這是結構性和可持續復甦的前提。</p>
</div><p>Daiwa believes that if the sales momentum in Tier-1 cities continues, sector share prices may rise further in the short to medium term, though correction risks are real. The broker prefers state-owned developers with genuine exposure to Tier-1 cities over private developers, as the latter would face downgrade risks once momentum fades. Its top picks are CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) +0.040 (+0.105%)  Short selling $71.61M; Ratio 28.165%  and CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) +0.230 (+1.438%)  Short selling $44.95M; Ratio 24.408%  , both rated Buy. (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-13 12:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大和認為，如果一線城市的銷售勢頭持續，板塊股價在短期至中期內可能進一步上漲，儘管修正風險是真實存在的。該券商更傾向於真正接觸一線城市的國有開發商，而非私營開發商，因為後者在勢頭減弱時將面臨降級風險。其首選股票為華潤置地（01109.HK）+0.040 (+0.105%) 空頭頭寸 7161 萬美元；比例 28.165% 和中國海外發展（00688.HK）+0.230 (+1.438%) 空頭頭寸 4495 萬美元；比例 24.408%，均評級為買入。（ad/u）（香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026-05-13 12:25。）</p>
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大和證券：國內房地產市場尚未全面復甦；首選華潤置地和中國海外發展