<p><strong>標普 500</strong>（^GSPC 0.16%）在三月份大幅下跌，因為伊朗衝突使得油價首次超過每桶 100 美元。該指數已經恢復了損失，但反彈可能為時已晚。</p>
<p>地緣政治緊張局勢仍然高企，能源價格持續上漲，沒人知道局勢何時會改善。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在最近的新聞發佈會上表示：“經濟前景仍然高度不確定，中東的衝突加劇了這種不確定性。”</p>
<p>與此同時，美聯儲官員最近警告稱，通脹壓力可能導致加息，而標普 500 則發出了自互聯網泡沫崩潰以來首次出現的警報。以下是投資者需要了解的當前市場環境。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1ODIvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UtNS5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1ODIvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UtNS5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上回答記者提問。圖片來源：美聯儲官方照片。</p>
<h2>美聯儲表示通脹壓力可能導致加息</h2>
<p>美聯儲的半年一次金融穩定報告識別並評估美國金融系統的風險。最新報告於 2026 年 5 月發佈，認為地緣政治緊張局勢和高油價是最緊迫的擔憂。</p>
<p>美聯儲理事會警告稱：“來自能源衝擊的通脹壓力可能迫使中央銀行收緊貨幣政策，即使經濟增長減弱。” 在當前環境下，這可能特別糟糕，因為股票的估值已經按歷史標準來看非常高。</p>
<p>在正常情況下，美聯儲會降息以刺激疲軟的經濟。但由於伊朗衝突導致能源價格飆升，通脹在三月份大幅加速，隨着油價衝擊推動製造和運輸成本上升，通脹可能繼續攀升。在這種情況下，美聯儲可能被迫提高基準利率。</p>
<p>這可能以多種方式打擊股市。更高的利率將直接通過增加利息支出和間接通過減少消費者需求來損害企業盈利。更高的利率還會使債券更具吸引力，這可能導致投資者拋售股票。</p>
<p>歷史背景在這裏是有價值的。美聯儲上一次加息週期始於 2022 年 3 月，標普 500 在接下來的三個月中下跌了 17%。事實上，自 1999 年以來，美聯儲已經啓動了四個加息週期，而標普 500 在接下來的三個月中總是下跌，平均回撤為 7%。</p>
<h2>股市發出自互聯網泡沫崩潰以來首次出現的警報</h2>
<p>週期性調整後的市盈率（CAPE）有時被稱為希勒市盈率，是用於評估整個股票市場指數的估值指標。截至 5 月初，標普 500 的 CAPE 比率為 39.6。除去過去幾個月，該指數自 2000 年 9 月互聯網泡沫崩潰以來未曾以如此高的估值交易。</p>
<p>事實上，自 1957 年創建以來，標普 500 的平均 CAPE 比率僅在 27 個月內超過 39。換句話説，標普 500（美國股市的基準）在過去 70 年中僅在約 3% 的時間裏如此昂貴，而如此高的估值歷史上與未來回報的慘淡相關。</p>
<p>下圖顯示了標普 500 在每月 CAPE 讀數超過 39 後的不同時間段的平均回報。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>時間段</th>
<th>標普 500 的平均回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1 年</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2 年</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3 年</td>
<td>(30%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：羅伯特·希勒。</p>
<p>上圖所示的內容對未來的暗示是：如果標普 500 的回報與歷史平均水平相符，該指數將在 2027 年 5 月下跌 4%。到 2028 年 5 月將下跌 20%。到 2029 年 5 月將暴跌 30%。</p>
<p>投資者現在應該拋售股票嗎？不。過去的表現從來不能保證未來的結果。CAPE 比率是基於標普 500 在過去 10 年的平均通脹調整後盈利。而且，隨着人工智能提高生產力，未來盈利可能會更快增長。在這種情況下，標普 500 可能會繼續上漲，而其 CAPE 比率降至更合理的水平。</p>
<p>然而，雖然僅僅因為標普 500 的 CAPE 比率接近歷史範圍的上限而退出股市並不明智，但同樣愚蠢的是忽視股市的高估值。在當前環境下，投資者應僅購買那些他們願意在大幅下跌中持有的高信念股票，並且僅在股票以合理價格交易時購買。</p>
<p>我將以沃倫·巴菲特的建議結束。“作為投資者，你的目標應該簡單地是在一個理性的價格下購買一個易於理解的業務的部分權益，其盈利在五年、十年和二十年後幾乎肯定會大幅提高。”</p>

標普 500 指數

標普 500 指數股票型基金

2 倍做多標普 500 ETF - Direxion

標普 500 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - Direxion

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

2 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

<p>標普 500 指數因地緣政治緊張局勢和油價上漲而出現警示信號，這給市場帶來了不確定性。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，通脹壓力可能導致加息，而歷史上這通常會導致標普 500 指數下跌。該指數目前的 CAPE 比率為 39.6，表明其被高估，未來幾年的潛在下跌幅度可能在 4% 到 30% 之間。建議投資者關注合理價格的高信念股票，而不是完全退出市場</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.16%) fell sharply in March when the Iran conflict pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. The index has already recovered its losses, but the rebound may have been premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>標普 500</strong>（^GSPC 0.16%）在三月份大幅下跌，因為伊朗衝突使得油價首次超過每桶 100 美元。該指數已經恢復了損失，但反彈可能為時已晚。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical tensions are still elevated, energy prices are still increasing, and no one knows when the situation will improve. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said as much during a recent press conference: &#34;The economic outlook remains highly uncertain and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地緣政治緊張局勢仍然高企，能源價格持續上漲，沒人知道局勢何時會改善。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在最近的新聞發佈會上表示：“經濟前景仍然高度不確定，中東的衝突加劇了這種不確定性。”</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Fed officials recently warned that inflationary pressure could lead to interest rate hikes, and the S&amp;P 500 just sounded an alarm last witnessed during the dot-com crash. Here's what investors need to know about the current market environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美聯儲官員最近警告稱，通脹壓力可能導致加息，而標普 500 則發出了自互聯網泡沫崩潰以來首次出現的警報。以下是投資者需要了解的當前市場環境。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1ODIvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UtNS5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F869582%2Fjerome-powell-chair-powell-answers-reporters-questions-at-the-fomc-press-conference-5.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters at a press conference. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上回答記者提問。圖片來源：美聯儲官方照片。</p>
</div><h2>The Federal Reserve says inflationary pressure could lead to interest rate hikes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲表示通脹壓力可能導致加息</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's biannual financial stability report identifies and assesses risks to the U.S. financial system. The latest report was released in May 2026, and it ranked geopolitical tension and elevated oil prices as the most pressing concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的半年一次金融穩定報告識別並評估美國金融系統的風險。最新報告於 2026 年 5 月發佈，認為地緣政治緊張局勢和高油價是最緊迫的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Inflationary pressure from an energy shock could force central banks to tighten monetary policy even if economic growth were to weaken,&#34; warned the Fed Board of Governors. That could be particularly bad in the current environment because stocks already trade at very rich valuations by historical standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲理事會警告稱：“來自能源衝擊的通脹壓力可能迫使中央銀行收緊貨幣政策，即使經濟增長減弱。” 在當前環境下，這可能特別糟糕，因為股票的估值已經按歷史標準來看非常高。</p>
</div><p>Under normal circumstances, the Fed would cut rates to stimulate a weak economy. But inflation accelerated substantially in March due to soaring energy prices caused by the Iran conflict, and inflation may continue climbing as the oil shock drives up manufacturing and transportation costs. In that scenario, the Fed may be forced to raise its benchmark rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情況下，美聯儲會降息以刺激疲軟的經濟。但由於伊朗衝突導致能源價格飆升，通脹在三月份大幅加速，隨着油價衝擊推動製造和運輸成本上升，通脹可能繼續攀升。在這種情況下，美聯儲可能被迫提高基準利率。</p>
</div><p>That could sink the stock market in several ways. Higher interest rates would hurt corporate earnings, both directly by increasing interest expense and indirectly by reducing consumer demand. Higher interest rates would also make bonds more attractive, which could cause investors to sell stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能以多種方式打擊股市。更高的利率將直接通過增加利息支出和間接通過減少消費者需求來損害企業盈利。更高的利率還會使債券更具吸引力，這可能導致投資者拋售股票。</p>
</div><p>Historical context is valuable here. The Federal Reserve's last rate-hike cycle started on March 17, 2022, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 17% in the next three months. In fact, the Fed has initiated four rate-hike cycles since 1999, and the S&amp;P 500 has always declined over the next three months, with an average drawdown of 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史背景在這裏是有價值的。美聯儲上一次加息週期始於 2022 年 3 月，標普 500 在接下來的三個月中下跌了 17%。事實上，自 1999 年以來，美聯儲已經啓動了四個加息週期，而標普 500 在接下來的三個月中總是下跌，平均回撤為 7%。</p>
</div><h2>The stock market sounds an alarm last seen during the dot-com crash</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股市發出自互聯網泡沫崩潰以來首次出現的警報</h2>
</div><p>The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, sometimes called the Shiller PE, is a valuation metric used to evaluate entire stock market indexes. As of early May, the S&amp;P 500 had a CAPE ratio of 39.6. Excluding the last few months, the index has not traded at such a high valuation since the dot-com crash in September 2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週期性調整後的市盈率（CAPE）有時被稱為希勒市盈率，是用於評估整個股票市場指數的估值指標。截至 5 月初，標普 500 的 CAPE 比率為 39.6。除去過去幾個月，該指數自 2000 年 9 月互聯網泡沫崩潰以來未曾以如此高的估值交易。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the S&amp;P 500's average CAPE ratio has only exceeded 39 during 27 months since its creation in 1957. In other words, the S&amp;P 500 (a benchmark for the U.S. stock market) has only been this expensive about 3% of the time in the last 70 years, and such rich valuations have historically correlated with dismal future returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，自 1957 年創建以來，標普 500 的平均 CAPE 比率僅在 27 個月內超過 39。換句話説，標普 500（美國股市的基準）在過去 70 年中僅在約 3% 的時間裏如此昂貴，而如此高的估值歷史上與未來回報的慘淡相關。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows the S&amp;P 500's average return over different time periods following a monthly CAPE reading above 39.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖顯示了標普 500 在每月 CAPE 讀數超過 39 後的不同時間段的平均回報。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Time Period</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500's Average Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1 year</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2 years</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3 years</td>
<td>(30%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>時間段</th>
<th>標普 500 的平均回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1 年</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2 年</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3 年</td>
<td>(30%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Robert Shiller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：羅伯特·希勒。</p>
</div><p>Here is what the chart above suggests about the future: If the S&amp;P 500's returns match the historical average, the index will fall 4% by May 2027. It will drop 20% by May 2028. And it will plummet 30% by May 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上圖所示的內容對未來的暗示是：如果標普 500 的回報與歷史平均水平相符，該指數將在 2027 年 5 月下跌 4%。到 2028 年 5 月將下跌 20%。到 2029 年 5 月將暴跌 30%。</p>
</div><p>Should investors sell their stocks right now? No. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results. The CAPE ratio is based on the S&amp;P 500's average inflation-adjusted earnings from the past 10 years. And earnings could grow faster in the future as artificial intelligence boosts productivity. In that case, the S&amp;P 500 may keep moving higher while its CAPE ratio falls to something more reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者現在應該拋售股票嗎？不。過去的表現從來不能保證未來的結果。CAPE 比率是基於標普 500 在過去 10 年的平均通脹調整後盈利。而且，隨着人工智能提高生產力，未來盈利可能會更快增長。在這種情況下，標普 500 可能會繼續上漲，而其 CAPE 比率降至更合理的水平。</p>
</div><p>However, while it doesn't make sense to exit the stock market simply because the S&amp;P 500's CAPE ratio is near the upper end of its historical range, it would be equally foolish to dismiss the stock market's rich valuation. In the current environment, investors should only buy high-conviction stocks they would be comfortable holding through a steep downturn, and only if shares trade at reasonable prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，雖然僅僅因為標普 500 的 CAPE 比率接近歷史範圍的上限而退出股市並不明智，但同樣愚蠢的是忽視股市的高估值。在當前環境下，投資者應僅購買那些他們願意在大幅下跌中持有的高信念股票，並且僅在股票以合理價格交易時購買。</p>
</div><p>I'll end with advice from Warren Buffett. &#34;Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, 10, and 20 years from now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我將以沃倫·巴菲特的建議結束。“作為投資者，你的目標應該簡單地是在一個理性的價格下購買一個易於理解的業務的部分權益，其盈利在五年、十年和二十年後幾乎肯定會大幅提高。”</p>
</div>

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as Investors Get a Warning From the Federal Reserve. History Says This Will Happen Next.

- S&P 500 指數因伊朗衝突而大幅下跌，油價突破 100 美元。  
- 美聯儲警告因通脹壓力可能加息，且股市估值偏高。  
- 投資者應選擇高信心股票，避免市場高估。

股市發出警報，投資者收到美聯儲的警告。歷史告訴我們接下來會發生什麼