<p>不需要經濟學家告訴你，今年春天美國人在財務上感受到顯著壓力。伊朗持續戰爭最明顯的影響之一就是對油價的影響。</p>
<p>美國人平均每加侖支付 4.50 美元，自衝突開始以來上漲了約 50%。燃料價格影響幾乎所有事物，這在四月份的消費者物價指數（CPI）上漲中得到了體現，CPI 的增幅高於預期，達到了 3.8%。</p>
<p>分析師們現在將目光轉向五月及以後，而美聯儲剛剛向股票投資者傳遞了一些糟糕的消息，發佈了最新的通脹預測。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzAwMDUvMjYwODgyODAxODZfMDliZTcwMmUxYl9rLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzAwMDUvMjYwODgyODAxODZfMDliZTcwMmUxYl9rLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：美聯儲。</p>
<h2>通脹何時會減緩？</h2>
<p>在上個月通脹激增之後，消費者和投資者可能都在想，伊朗戰爭和唐納德·特朗普總統持續的關税影響是否是暫時的。由於霍爾木茲海峽沒有明確的完全重開的路徑，通常通過該通道運輸的商品出現短缺，進一步加大了從食品雜貨到航空票價等各種費用的價格壓力。</p>
<p>至少在目前，沒有通脹減緩的跡象。克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行根據最新數據更新了五月的預測，預計本月 CPI 將上漲 4.2%。這將是自 2023 年四月以來 CPI 讀數的最高年增幅。</p>
<p>克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行還發布了對美國製造業和服務業首席執行官的最新預期調查。他們預計未來 12 個月的通脹平均約為 3.7%，高於之前調查的 3.1%。換句話説，他們認為短期內不會出現降價。</p>
<p>雖然如果供應限制緩解，油價和其他商品相關價格可能會下降，但許多日常商品和服務的成本並不會那麼容易下降。投資者應該為另一個通脹超過 3% 的年份做好準備，無論伊朗戰爭多快解決。然而，戰爭持續的時間越長，通脹可能越嚴重。</p>
<p>歷史上，相對較高的通脹導致股票投資者的結果顯著惡化。</p>
<h2>股票如何應對高通脹？</h2>
<p><strong>標普 500</strong> 歷史上在通脹之前的平均年化回報率約為 10%。考慮到通脹後，這一數字降至接近 7%。</p>
<p>但股市通常不會通過更高的名義回報來抵消更高的通脹。事實上，低通脹時期通常會產生顯著更好的通脹調整回報，而高通脹時期則相對較差。根據經濟學家羅伯特·希勒自 1871 年以來的股票市場回報和通脹數據分析，一旦現行通脹率超過 3%，標普 500 的實際回報將顯著下降。</p>
<p>這種相關性可能與各種原因有關。高通脹對消費者造成壓力，可能促使他們減少消費，從而減緩經濟增長。這可能促使美聯儲提高利率，增加企業的借貸成本，使債券對股票投資者更具吸引力。高通脹還提高了投資者對未來收益的折現率，降低了他們今天願意為股票支付的金額。</p>
<p>到目前為止，標普 500 在很大程度上避免了通脹的負面影響。投資者對這些擔憂不以為然，在三月份大幅拋售後，股票飆升。截止目前，該基準指數的交易接近歷史最高點。以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 恢復得更快，人工智能股票趨勢繼續推動市場。</p>
<p>但到目前為止，投資者對通脹對公司盈利的影響數據有限。第一季度通脹相對温和，僅在三月份開始上升。</p>
<p>投資者可能要等到許多公司在三個月左右後報告第二季度財報時，才能看到真正的影響。通脹持續高企的時間越長，對今年剩餘時間的股價影響就會越大。</p>

標普 500 指數

美國大盤成長股 ETF - Charles Schwab

羅素 2000 價值股指數 ETF - iShares

<p>美聯儲在五月的通脹預測中顯示，消費者價格指數（CPI）將上升至 4.2%，主要受到高油價和持續供應限制的推動。首席執行官們預計未來一年通脹將平均達到 3.7%。歷史上，高通脹對股票回報產生負面影響，當通脹超過 3% 時，標普 500 的實際回報顯著下降。儘管當前市場處於高位，但持續的通脹可能導致投資者面臨更糟糕的結果，因為即將在即將發佈的報告中，企業盈利的真實影響將變得更加清晰</p>

<p>It doesn't take an economist to tell you that Americans are feeling a significant strain on their finances this spring. One of the most noticeable impacts of the ongoing war in Iran is the effect on gas prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不需要經濟學家告訴你，今年春天美國人在財務上感受到顯著壓力。伊朗持續戰爭最明顯的影響之一就是對油價的影響。</p>
</div><p>Americans are paying an average of $4.50 per gallon, up about 50% since the start of the conflict. Fuel prices impact just about everything, and that's reflected in April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase, which came in higher than anticipated at 3.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國人平均每加侖支付 4.50 美元，自衝突開始以來上漲了約 50%。燃料價格影響幾乎所有事物，這在四月份的消費者物價指數（CPI）上漲中得到了體現，CPI 的增幅高於預期，達到了 3.8%。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are now turning their attention to May and beyond, and the Federal Reserve just shared some terrible news for stock investors with its latest inflation forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師們現在將目光轉向五月及以後，而美聯儲剛剛向股票投資者傳遞了一些糟糕的消息，發佈了最新的通脹預測。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzAwMDUvMjYwODgyODAxODZfMDliZTcwMmUxYl9rLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F870005%2F26088280186_09be702e1b_k.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：美聯儲。</p>
</div><h2>When will inflation subside?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通脹何時會減緩？</h2>
</div><p>After last month's spike in inflation, consumers and investors alike may be wondering whether the impacts of the war in Iran and President Donald Trump's ongoing tariffs are transitory. Without a clear path to fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, there's a shortage of commodities that are typically transported through the passageway, putting further price pressure on all sorts of expenses from groceries to airline fares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上個月通脹激增之後，消費者和投資者可能都在想，伊朗戰爭和唐納德·特朗普總統持續的關税影響是否是暫時的。由於霍爾木茲海峽沒有明確的完全重開的路徑，通常通過該通道運輸的商品出現短缺，進一步加大了從食品雜貨到航空票價等各種費用的價格壓力。</p>
</div><p>At least for the time being, there are no signs of inflation subsiding. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland updated its forecast for May with the most recent data and expects the CPI to climb 4.2% this month. That would be the highest year-over-year increase in the CPI reading since April 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少在目前，沒有通脹減緩的跡象。克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行根據最新數據更新了五月的預測，預計本月 CPI 將上漲 4.2%。這將是自 2023 年四月以來 CPI 讀數的最高年增幅。</p>
</div><p>The Cleveland Fed also released its most recent survey of expectations from U.S. CEOs in the manufacturing and services sectors. They see inflation averaging about 3.7% over the next 12 months, up from 3.1% in the previous survey. In other words, they don't see lower pricing coming anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行還發布了對美國製造業和服務業首席執行官的最新預期調查。他們預計未來 12 個月的通脹平均約為 3.7%，高於之前調查的 3.1%。換句話説，他們認為短期內不會出現降價。</p>
</div><p>While gas prices and other commodity-linked pricing could come down if supply constraints ease, costs for many everyday goods and services don't drop as easily. Investors should prepare for another year of inflation exceeding 3%, regardless of how quickly the war in Iran is resolved. However, the longer it goes on, the worse inflation could get.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然如果供應限制緩解，油價和其他商品相關價格可能會下降，但許多日常商品和服務的成本並不會那麼容易下降。投資者應該為另一個通脹超過 3% 的年份做好準備，無論伊朗戰爭多快解決。然而，戰爭持續的時間越長，通脹可能越嚴重。</p>
</div><p>Historically, relatively high inflation has led to significantly worse outcomes for stock investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，相對較高的通脹導致股票投資者的結果顯著惡化。</p>
</div><h2>How do stocks handle high inflation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票如何應對高通脹？</h2>
</div><p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has historically produced an average annualized return of around 10% before inflation. That drops closer to 7% when you factor in inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>標普 500</strong> 歷史上在通脹之前的平均年化回報率約為 10%。考慮到通脹後，這一數字降至接近 7%。</p>
</div><p>But the stock market doesn't usually offset higher inflation with higher nominal returns. In fact, periods of low inflation generally produce significantly better inflation-adjusted returns than periods of high inflation. There's a significant drop-off in real returns for the S&amp;P 500 once prevailing inflation rates exceed 3%, based on an analysis of stock market returns and inflation from economist Robert Shiller's data going back to 1871.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但股市通常不會通過更高的名義回報來抵消更高的通脹。事實上，低通脹時期通常會產生顯著更好的通脹調整回報，而高通脹時期則相對較差。根據經濟學家羅伯特·希勒自 1871 年以來的股票市場回報和通脹數據分析，一旦現行通脹率超過 3%，標普 500 的實際回報將顯著下降。</p>
</div><p>That correlation could be linked to all sorts of causes. High inflation weighs on consumers, which may push them to spend less and slow down the economy. It may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, increasing borrowing costs for businesses and making bonds more attractive to stock investors. High inflation also increases the discount rate that investors assign to future earnings, decreasing the amount they're willing to pay for a stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種相關性可能與各種原因有關。高通脹對消費者造成壓力，可能促使他們減少消費，從而減緩經濟增長。這可能促使美聯儲提高利率，增加企業的借貸成本，使債券對股票投資者更具吸引力。高通脹還提高了投資者對未來收益的折現率，降低了他們今天願意為股票支付的金額。</p>
</div><p>So far, the S&amp;P 500 has largely avoided the negative impact of inflation. Investors have brushed off the concerns, sending stocks soaring after a huge sell-off in March. The benchmark index now trades near an all-time high as of this writing. The tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> has recovered even faster, as the artificial intelligence stock trend continues to drive the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，標普 500 在很大程度上避免了通脹的負面影響。投資者對這些擔憂不以為然，在三月份大幅拋售後，股票飆升。截止目前，該基準指數的交易接近歷史最高點。以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 恢復得更快，人工智能股票趨勢繼續推動市場。</p>
</div><p>But investors have limited data on the impact of inflation on companies' bottom lines so far. Inflation remained relatively mild in the first quarter, only starting its ascent in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但到目前為止，投資者對通脹對公司盈利的影響數據有限。第一季度通脹相對温和，僅在三月份開始上升。</p>
</div><p>Investors may not see the true impact on many companies until they report their second-quarter earnings in three months or so. The longer inflation remains elevated, the worse it will be for stock prices throughout the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能要等到許多公司在三個月左右後報告第二季度財報時，才能看到真正的影響。通脹持續高企的時間越長，對今年剩餘時間的股價影響就會越大。</p>
</div>

From Bad to Worse: The Federal Reserve's May Inflation Forecast Is Terrible News for Stock Investors

- 美國消費者面臨財務壓力，油價上漲至每加侖 $4.50，增幅達 50%。  
- 四月消費者價格指數 (CPI) 超出預期，增幅為 3.8%。  
- 聯邦儲備預計五月 CPI 將上升至 4.2%，並表示高通脹或導致股市表現不佳。

Motley Fool

超大盤股成長 ETF - Vanguard

羅素 1000 成長指數 ETF - iShares

Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF

標普 600 小盤價值股 ETF - SPDR

全美價值股指數 ETF - Vanguard

美國小盤價值股 ETF - Avantis

標普 500 指數股票型基金

中盤價值股 ETF - Vanguard

核心標普美國增長 ETF - iShares

標普 500 ETF - iShares

標普 400 中盤價值股 ETF - Vanguard

全美成長股指數 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

納指 100 ETF - Invesco

美國小盤成長股 ETF - Vanguard

納斯達克綜合指數

從壞到更糟：美聯儲五月的通脹預測對股票投資者而言是個壞消息