<p>摩根大通發佈了一份研究報告，指出中國 4 月份的信貸數據顯著低於預期，社會融資規模（流量）和新增人民幣貸款均遠低於市場共識和銀行的預測。其中，家庭貸款和企業貸款的單月收縮均為歷史最大。該銀行認為，4 月份信貸表現疲弱部分受到季節性因素的影響，但幅度超出預期。它建議採取更為防禦性的投資組合定位，並青睞貸款管道更強的四大國有銀行。</p>
<p>報告指出，4 月份社會融資規模（流量）為 6200 億元人民幣，約為市場預期的 1.25 萬億元人民幣和摩根大通預測的 1.24 萬億元人民幣的一半。新增人民幣貸款減少了 100 億元人民幣，遠低於市場預期的 300 億元人民幣和銀行預測的 271 億元人民幣。家庭貸款環比收縮 7870 億元人民幣，而企業貸款環比收縮 8700 億元人民幣，均創下單月最大降幅。票據融資大幅增加了 1.24 萬億元人民幣以填補缺口，該銀行認為這對綜合貸款收益率和淨利差發出了負面信號。</p>
<p>該銀行指出，零售貸款需求進一步惡化，同比下降幅度擴大至 0.7%。短期貸款和中長期貸款均出現環比收縮，表明抵押貸款和消費信貸需求持續疲弱。儘管一線和二線城市的房地產交易量略有改善，但抵押貸款的疲軟表現仍令人驚訝。M1 和 M2 的增長差距略微擴大至負 3.6%，反映出相對於預防性儲蓄，交易性貨幣需求較弱，進一步強化了信貸需求疲軟的信號。 (ad/u)</p>

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<p>摩根大通的報告指出，中國四月份的信貸數據顯著低於預期，社會融資規模為 6200 億元人民幣，新發人民幣貸款減少了 100 億元。家庭和企業貸款的月度降幅創下歷史新高。該銀行建議採取防禦性策略，偏向於四大國有銀行，因為它們的貸款管道更為強勁，同時指出零售貸款需求惡化以及 M1 與 M2 增長之間的差距擴大</p>

<p>JPM released a research report stating that Chinas credit data for April were significantly weaker than expected, with Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (Flow) and new RMB loans both far below market consensus and the banks forecasts. Among them, the single-month contraction in both household loans and corporate loans was the largest on record. The bank believes Aprils weak credit performance was partly affected by seasonal factors, but the magnitude exceeded expectations. It recommends a more defensive portfolio positioning and favors the Big Four state-owned banks with stronger loan pipelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通發佈了一份研究報告，指出中國 4 月份的信貸數據顯著低於預期，社會融資規模（流量）和新增人民幣貸款均遠低於市場共識和銀行的預測。其中，家庭貸款和企業貸款的單月收縮均為歷史最大。該銀行認為，4 月份信貸表現疲弱部分受到季節性因素的影響，但幅度超出預期。它建議採取更為防禦性的投資組合定位，並青睞貸款管道更強的四大國有銀行。</p>
</div><p>The report noted that Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (Flow) in April amounted to RMB620 billion, about half of the market expectation of RMB1.25 trillion and JPMs forecast of RMB1.24 trillion. New RMB loans decreased by RMB10 billion, far below the market expectation of RMB300 billion and the banks forecast of RMB271 billion. Household loans contracted by RMB787 billion MoM, while corporate loans contracted by RMB870 billion MoM, both marking the largest single-month declines on record. Bill financing increased sharply by RMB1.24 trillion to fill the gap, which the bank believes sends a negative signal for blended loan yields and NIM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出，4 月份社會融資規模（流量）為 6200 億元人民幣，約為市場預期的 1.25 萬億元人民幣和摩根大通預測的 1.24 萬億元人民幣的一半。新增人民幣貸款減少了 100 億元人民幣，遠低於市場預期的 300 億元人民幣和銀行預測的 271 億元人民幣。家庭貸款環比收縮 7870 億元人民幣，而企業貸款環比收縮 8700 億元人民幣，均創下單月最大降幅。票據融資大幅增加了 1.24 萬億元人民幣以填補缺口，該銀行認為這對綜合貸款收益率和淨利差發出了負面信號。</p>
</div><p>The bank pointed out that retail loan demand further deteriorated, with the YoY decline widening to 0.7%. Both short-term and medium- to long-term loans recorded MoM contractions, indicating continued weakness in mortgage and consumer credit demand. Although property transaction volumes in first- and second-tier cities showed slight improvement, the weak performance of mortgage loans remained surprising. The gap between M1 and M2 growth slightly widened to negative 3.6%, reflecting weaker transactional money demand relative to precautionary savings, further reinforcing signals of subdued credit demand. (ad/u)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該銀行指出，零售貸款需求進一步惡化，同比下降幅度擴大至 0.7%。短期貸款和中長期貸款均出現環比收縮，表明抵押貸款和消費信貸需求持續疲弱。儘管一線和二線城市的房地產交易量略有改善，但抵押貸款的疲軟表現仍令人驚訝。M1 和 M2 的增長差距略微擴大至負 3.6%，反映出相對於預防性儲蓄，交易性貨幣需求較弱，進一步強化了信貸需求疲軟的信號。 (ad/u)</p>
</div>

JPM: China Apr Credit Data Far Below Expectations, Favor Big Four State-owned Banks for Defensive Positioning

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摩根大通表示，中國四月份的信貸數據遠低於預期，建議選擇四大國有銀行以採取防禦性策略