<ul>
<li>全球債券收益率因伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊而飆升，通脹擔憂加劇</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>預計各國央行將加息，今年幾乎沒有降息的可能</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>分析師警告在通脹波動中可能出現更高的赤字和燃料補貼</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：阿曼達·庫珀</p>
<p>倫敦，5 月 15 日（路透社）- 全球債券市場在經歷了一週的劇烈波動後，於週五勉強收尾，隨着伊朗戰爭造成的經濟損害證據不斷增加，投資者開始假設利率將比預期更快上升，經濟增長將受到影響。由於交易員預計美聯儲可能需要加息以遏制因伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊帶來的通脹壓力，美國國債收益率達到了近一年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>英國國債收益率再次飆升，達到數十年來的最高水平，隨着對首相基爾·斯塔默因其工黨在地方選舉中遭受重大損失而辭職的壓力加大，挑戰者也開始出現。歐元區的收益率普遍上升，而日本的債券收益率創下歷史新高。</p>
<p>意大利 10 年期債券表現最差，收益率上升 11 個基點至約 3.89%，本週累計上升 16 個基點，而基準德國國債收益率幾乎上升 7 個基點，達到約 3.12%，本週上漲 11 個基點。</p>
<p>本週的通脹數據顯示，消費者和企業開始感受到由於戰爭導致的價格壓力大幅增加，原油價格上漲超過 50%。</p>
<p>“我們看到全球債券風險溢價的重置，因為市場意識到我們生活在一個更加動盪的通脹氣候中，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的高級宏觀策略師丹尼爾·馮·阿倫表示。</p>
<p>兩年期收益率對通脹和利率預期變化最為敏感，本週上漲幅度最大，但長期債券的收益率也開始上升，反映出投資者對價格衝擊的長期影響的擔憂。</p>
<p>“全球收益率可能已經達到足以傷害市場情緒的水平。在一個由人工智能建設推動的強勁全球經濟和高企的能源價格之間，各國央行可能更擔心通脹，” DBS 的高級利率策略師尤金·劉表示。</p>
<p>貨幣市場顯示，交易員認為美聯儲今年加息的可能性為 60%。在戰爭之前，至少已經定價了兩次降息。</p>
<p>利率市場還顯示，全球 24 家最具影響力的央行中，只有四家有任何實質性降息的可能性，絕大多數傾向於加息，根據 LSEG 的數據。</p>
<p>“關注的焦點不僅是通脹，還有更高的赤字，” 傑富瑞的策略師莫希特·庫馬爾表示。</p>
<p>“我們可能會在未來幾個月看到一系列支持燃料補貼的措施被宣佈。”</p>
<p>庫馬爾表示，他預計政府債券收益率曲線將出現陡峭化的趨勢，指的是長期債券收益率上升速度快於短期債券收益率的市場動態。</p>
<p>本週 G7 國家的 10 年期收益率平均上升了 17 個基點，而兩年期 G7 債務收益率的平均上升為 12 個基點。基準 10 年期美國國債 US10YT=RR 的收益率最後為 4.54%，當天上漲 8 個基點，接近去年 6 月以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>基準 10 年期英國國債本週上漲超過 20 個基點，週五再上漲 15 個基點，達到 5.14%；而 10 年期日本債券收益率上漲 7 個基點，收於 2.7%。</p>
<p>（新加坡的瑞·韋和班加羅爾的特韋莎·迪克希特補充報道；安德魯·海文斯、基爾斯滕·多諾萬編輯）</p>

美國短期公司債 - Vanguard

美國長期公司債 - Vanguard

美國中期公司債 - Vanguard

<p>全球債券收益率因伊朗戰爭的經濟影響而激增，通脹擔憂加劇，促使市場預期中央銀行將加快加息步伐。美國國債收益率達到了一年以來的最高點，而英國國債收益率則創下數十年來的高位。分析師警告稱，在通脹波動加劇的背景下，赤字可能會增加，並可能出現燃料補貼，預計政府債券收益率曲線將出現陡峭化的趨勢。市場預計美聯儲今年加息的概率為 60%，與之前的降息預期形成對比</p>

<p>* Bond yields surge globally as inflation fears rise after Iran war energy shocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球債券收益率因伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊而飆升，通脹擔憂加劇</li>
</ul>
</div><p>* Central banks expected to hike rates, with few cuts seen likely this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>預計各國央行將加息，今年幾乎沒有降息的可能</li>
</ul>
</div><p>* Analysts warn of higher deficits and possible fuel subsidies amid volatile inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>分析師警告在通脹波動中可能出現更高的赤字和燃料補貼</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Amanda Cooper</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：阿曼達·庫珀</p>
</div><p>LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - The global bond market limped to the end of a bruising week on Friday, as growing evidence of economic damage from the Iran war prompted investors to assume interest rates will rise faster than expected and growth will suffer. U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest in around a year as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates to rein in inflationary pressures stemming from Iran war-fuelled energy shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，5 月 15 日（路透社）- 全球債券市場在經歷了一週的劇烈波動後，於週五勉強收尾，隨着伊朗戰爭造成的經濟損害證據不斷增加，投資者開始假設利率將比預期更快上升，經濟增長將受到影響。由於交易員預計美聯儲可能需要加息以遏制因伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊帶來的通脹壓力，美國國債收益率達到了近一年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>UK gilt yields surged again, hitting their highest in decades, as pressure mounts on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign over his Labour Party's hefty losses in local elections, and as challengers emerge. Yields across the euro zone jumped, while Japanese bond yields hit record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國國債收益率再次飆升，達到數十年來的最高水平，隨着對首相基爾·斯塔默因其工黨在地方選舉中遭受重大損失而辭職的壓力加大，挑戰者也開始出現。歐元區的收益率普遍上升，而日本的債券收益率創下歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>Italian 10-year bonds were among the worst performers, with yields up 11 basis points to around 3.89%, bringing the rise for the week to 16 bps, while benchmark German Bund yields rose almost 7 bps to around 3.12%, up 11 bps this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>意大利 10 年期債券表現最差，收益率上升 11 個基點至約 3.89%，本週累計上升 16 個基點，而基準德國國債收益率幾乎上升 7 個基點，達到約 3.12%，本週上漲 11 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Inflation data this week has shown consumers and businesses are starting to see big increases in price pressures as a result of the war, which has pushed up the price of crude oil by more than 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週的通脹數據顯示，消費者和企業開始感受到由於戰爭導致的價格壓力大幅增加，原油價格上漲超過 50%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We see a reset of this global bond risk premium because the market is just realising we're living in a much more volatile inflation climate,&#34; Daniel von Ahlen, senior macro strategist at GlobalData TS Lombard, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們看到全球債券風險溢價的重置，因為市場意識到我們生活在一個更加動盪的通脹氣候中，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的高級宏觀策略師丹尼爾·馮·阿倫表示。</p>
</div><p>Two-year yields, which are the most sensitive to changes in expectations for inflation and interest rates, have risen most sharply this week, but yields on longer-dated bonds have started to increase as well, reflecting investors' concern about the longer-running impact from a price shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩年期收益率對通脹和利率預期變化最為敏感，本週上漲幅度最大，但長期債券的收益率也開始上升，反映出投資者對價格衝擊的長期影響的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Global yields have probably come to the point where they are high enough to hurt sentiment. Between a resilient global economy powered by AI build-out and elevated energy prices, central banks are probably more worried about inflation,&#34; DBS senior rates strategist Eugene Leow said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“全球收益率可能已經達到足以傷害市場情緒的水平。在一個由人工智能建設推動的強勁全球經濟和高企的能源價格之間，各國央行可能更擔心通脹，” DBS 的高級利率策略師尤金·劉表示。</p>
</div><p>Money markets show traders see a 60% chance of the Fed delivering a rate hike this year. Before the war, at least two cuts had been priced in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣市場顯示，交易員認為美聯儲今年加息的可能性為 60%。在戰爭之前，至少已經定價了兩次降息。</p>
</div><p>The rates market also shows that just four out of 24 of the world's most influential central banks have any meaningful chance of delivering a rate cut this year, with the vast majority tilted in favour of hikes, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率市場還顯示，全球 24 家最具影響力的央行中，只有四家有任何實質性降息的可能性，絕大多數傾向於加息，根據 LSEG 的數據。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's not just inflation, but also higher deficits that should be the focus,&#34; Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“關注的焦點不僅是通脹，還有更高的赤字，” 傑富瑞的策略師莫希特·庫馬爾表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We are likely to see a number of support measures for fuel subsidies announced in the coming months.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們可能會在未來幾個月看到一系列支持燃料補貼的措施被宣佈。”</p>
</div><p>Kumar said he anticipated a steepening bias in government bond curves, referring to a market dynamic in which longer-dated bond yields rise more quickly than those of shorter maturities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫馬爾表示，他預計政府債券收益率曲線將出現陡峭化的趨勢，指的是長期債券收益率上升速度快於短期債券收益率的市場動態。</p>
</div><p>Ten-year yields across the G7 nations have risen by an average of 17 bps this week, compared with an average rise of 12 bps for two-year G7 debt yields. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were last yielding 4.54%, up 8 bps on the day and around their highest since last June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週 G7 國家的 10 年期收益率平均上升了 17 個基點，而兩年期 G7 債務收益率的平均上升為 12 個基點。基準 10 年期美國國債 US10YT=RR 的收益率最後為 4.54%，當天上漲 8 個基點，接近去年 6 月以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Benchmark 10-year gilts, which have risen by over 20 bps this week, were up another 15 bps at 5.14% on Friday, while 10-year Japanese yields closed up 7 bps at 2.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基準 10 年期英國國債本週上漲超過 20 個基點，週五再上漲 15 個基點，達到 5.14%；而 10 年期日本債券收益率上漲 7 個基點，收於 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>(Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Kirsten Donovan)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（新加坡的瑞·韋和班加羅爾的特韋莎·迪克希特補充報道；安德魯·海文斯、基爾斯滕·多諾萬編輯）</p>
</div>

全球債券市場受到重創，因通脹加劇令投資者感到恐慌