<p>昨天多個市場大幅下跌，今天早些時候的歐洲交易時段也出現了一些明顯的下行趨勢。即便是強勁的納斯達克 100 期貨也遭受了打擊，在相對狹窄的科技主導反彈推動基準指數創下新高後，銀價承受了最大的拋售壓力，繼昨天下跌 3% 後又下跌了 7%。黃金下滑了 2%，美元對所有主要貨幣上漲。隨着全球收益率持續飆升，英國 30 年期國債收益率躍升至 5.82%，達到自 1998 年以來的最高水平。但到午餐時間，由於獲利了結，一些走勢有所回落，伊朗外長阿拉基表示他們收到了來自美國的消息，稱希望繼續進行談判。儘管如此，只要霍爾木茲海峽的持續局勢未得到解決，這將繼續支撐油價，並削弱 EUR/USD 的預測，尤其是在全球債券收益率大幅上漲的背景下。</p>
<h2>造成美元強勢的原因是什麼？</h2>
<p>市場似乎對地緣政治樂觀情緒的減退和美聯儲政策重新定價的組合做出了反應。人們對特朗普與習近平的會晤寄予了很大希望，期待至少能帶來一些建設性的頭條新聞——不僅僅是在貿易方面，可能在伊朗問題上也是如此。然而，缺乏實質性進展使得風險情緒受到影響。美國股指期貨與歐洲股票一起下滑，而油價則恢復了上漲，這使得美元在風險規避的背景下再次走高，同時交易員們在本週一系列鷹派的美國數據發佈後繼續降低對美聯儲放鬆政策的預期。</p>
<p>與此同時，債券收益率持續上升，為全球市場增添了另一層波動性。投資者對發達經濟體的政府借貸規模感到越來越不安，以及持續高企的收益率可能對增長前景、債務服務成本和更廣泛的金融狀況意味着什麼。主權收益率的急劇上升不再被視為暫時的調整——它正日益成為一種宏觀逆風。</p>
<p>通脹擔憂依然是焦點。在週二美國 CPI 數據超出預期後，市場受到震動，週三生產者價格又帶來了另一個上行驚喜。四月份的 PPI 錄得自 2022 年 3 月以來的最大月度增幅，遠高於市場預期，強化了基礎價格壓力遠比政策制定者和市場所希望的要頑固的觀點。此外，美國進口價格也大幅上漲，引發了企業要麼通過降低利潤率來吸收更高成本，要麼將其轉嫁給消費者的擔憂，從而使通脹壓力在經濟週期中持續存在。</p>
<p>能源價格仍然是通脹故事的關鍵部分。高企的原油價格已經對廣泛的市場情緒造成了影響，儘管半導體公司和持續的人工智能熱情在此之前幫助美國科技指數抵禦了更廣泛的宏觀壓力。然而，這種韌性今天似乎終於出現了裂痕，隨着收益率上升、油價堅挺以及持續的通脹擔憂，甚至開始挑戰市場上最強勁的動量交易。</p>
<h2>EUR/USD 預測受到關鍵支撐位破裂的影響</h2>
<p>儘管油價高企，仍然保持在 100 美元以上，歐元在 1.1700 水平附近吸引了買盤幾天。但昨天該水平被突破，我們收盤於 20 日均線以下。這反過來為今天早些時候進一步的技術性拋售鋪平了道路。</p>
<p>考慮到全球風險情緒的整體惡化和油價的新一輪上漲，EUR/USD 現在可能會保持在 1.1700 以下。同時，如果推動股市的人工智能熱情也可能減退，尤其是考慮到下週 Nvidia 的財報將是一個重大事件。因此，EUR/USD 預測的下行風險正在增加，正如我們在本週所警告的那樣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>EUR/USD 圖表上的下一個支撐位在 1.1575-1.1605 區域，如果風險急劇惡化，則可能會跌至 1.1500。</p>
<h2>市場接下來會關注什麼？</h2>
<p>如前所述，市場對圍繞伊朗和人工智能相關主題的發展高度敏感，特別是考慮到這些因素對股票和更廣泛風險偏好的影響。隨着海灣局勢進展有限，全球收益率上升，美元可以繼續在此基礎上走高。除非市場很快獲得有意義的積極催化劑，否則風險繼續偏向美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

德銀美元指數 做空 - PowerShares

2 倍做空歐元 ETF - ProShares

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>EUR/USD 的預測面臨壓力，因為全球風險情緒惡化，歐元跌破關鍵支撐位 1.1700。美國國債收益率上升和通脹擔憂，加上高企的油價，正在推動美元走強。市場對地緣政治緊張局勢和對美聯儲政策路徑的重新評估作出反應，導致波動性增加。EUR/USD 的下一個支撐位預計在 1.1575-1.1605 附近，如果風險情緒進一步惡化，可能會出現更大幅度的下跌</p>

<p>Yesterday saw a number of markets drop sharply and we have seen some good downside follow-through so far into today’s early European session. Even the mighty Nasdaq 100 futures took a hit, after a relatively narrow tech-led rally pushed the benchmark to fresh record highs. Silver took the brunt of the sell-off, down another 7% after yesterday’s 3% drop. Gold slipped 2% and the dollar was up against all major currencies. As global yields continued to surge, the UK’s 30-year yield jumped to 5.82% to reach its highest level since 1998. But by lunchtime, some of those moves unwound a little amid profit-taking and as Iran's foreign minister Araqchi said they had received messages from the US saying they are seeking continued talks. Still, for as long as ongoing situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, this should keep the price of oil support and the EUR/USD forecast undermined, especially in light of the big surge in global bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天多個市場大幅下跌，今天早些時候的歐洲交易時段也出現了一些明顯的下行趨勢。即便是強勁的納斯達克 100 期貨也遭受了打擊，在相對狹窄的科技主導反彈推動基準指數創下新高後，銀價承受了最大的拋售壓力，繼昨天下跌 3% 後又下跌了 7%。黃金下滑了 2%，美元對所有主要貨幣上漲。隨着全球收益率持續飆升，英國 30 年期國債收益率躍升至 5.82%，達到自 1998 年以來的最高水平。但到午餐時間，由於獲利了結，一些走勢有所回落，伊朗外長阿拉基表示他們收到了來自美國的消息，稱希望繼續進行談判。儘管如此，只要霍爾木茲海峽的持續局勢未得到解決，這將繼續支撐油價，並削弱 EUR/USD 的預測，尤其是在全球債券收益率大幅上漲的背景下。</p>
</div><h2>What is causing all this dollar strength?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>造成美元強勢的原因是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Markets look to be reacting to a combination of fading geopolitical optimism and a fresh repricing of the Fed path. A great deal of hope had been pinned on the Trump-Xi meeting delivering at least a handful of constructive headlines — not just on trade, but potentially on Iran too. Instead, the absence of meaningful progress has left risk sentiment exposed. US equity futures have slipped alongside European stocks, while oil prices have resumed their climb, handing the dollar another leg higher both from a risk-off point of view and also as traders continue to scale back expectations for Fed easing following this week’s run of hawkish US data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場似乎對地緣政治樂觀情緒的減退和美聯儲政策重新定價的組合做出了反應。人們對特朗普與習近平的會晤寄予了很大希望，期待至少能帶來一些建設性的頭條新聞——不僅僅是在貿易方面，可能在伊朗問題上也是如此。然而，缺乏實質性進展使得風險情緒受到影響。美國股指期貨與歐洲股票一起下滑，而油價則恢復了上漲，這使得美元在風險規避的背景下再次走高，同時交易員們在本週一系列鷹派的美國數據發佈後繼續降低對美聯儲放鬆政策的預期。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, bond yields continue to grind higher, adding another layer of volatility across global markets. Investors are becoming increasingly uneasy about the scale of government borrowing across developed economies and what persistently elevated yields could mean for growth prospects, debt servicing costs, and broader financial conditions. The sharp move higher in sovereign yields is no longer being treated as a temporary adjustment — it is increasingly becoming a macro headwind in its own right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，債券收益率持續上升，為全球市場增添了另一層波動性。投資者對發達經濟體的政府借貸規模感到越來越不安，以及持續高企的收益率可能對增長前景、債務服務成本和更廣泛的金融狀況意味着什麼。主權收益率的急劇上升不再被視為暫時的調整——它正日益成為一種宏觀逆風。</p>
</div><p>Inflation concerns remain front and centre. After Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI print rattled markets, Wednesday brought another upside surprise through producer prices. April’s PPI posted its strongest monthly gain since March 2022 and came in well above consensus, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain far stickier than policymakers — and markets — had hoped. Adding to that, US import prices also surged, raising concerns that companies will either have to absorb higher costs through weaker margins or pass them on to consumers, keeping inflationary pressures alive deeper into the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹擔憂依然是焦點。在週二美國 CPI 數據超出預期後，市場受到震動，週三生產者價格又帶來了另一個上行驚喜。四月份的 PPI 錄得自 2022 年 3 月以來的最大月度增幅，遠高於市場預期，強化了基礎價格壓力遠比政策制定者和市場所希望的要頑固的觀點。此外，美國進口價格也大幅上漲，引發了企業要麼通過降低利潤率來吸收更高成本，要麼將其轉嫁給消費者的擔憂，從而使通脹壓力在經濟週期中持續存在。</p>
</div><p>Energy prices remain a key part of the inflation story. Elevated crude oil prices have already weighed on broad market sentiment for some time, although the resilience in semiconductor names and ongoing AI enthusiasm had until now helped shield US tech indices from the broader macro pressure. That resilience finally appears to be cracking today, with higher yields, firmer oil, and persistent inflation concerns beginning to challenge even the market’s strongest momentum trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源價格仍然是通脹故事的關鍵部分。高企的原油價格已經對廣泛的市場情緒造成了影響，儘管半導體公司和持續的人工智能熱情在此之前幫助美國科技指數抵禦了更廣泛的宏觀壓力。然而，這種韌性今天似乎終於出現了裂痕，隨着收益率上升、油價堅挺以及持續的通脹擔憂，甚至開始挑戰市場上最強勁的動量交易。</p>
</div><h2>EUR/USD forecast hit as it breaks key support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>EUR/USD 預測受到關鍵支撐位破裂的影響</h2>
</div><p>Despite elevated oil prices remaining well above the $100 mark, the euro was able to attract buyers around the 1.1700 level for several days. But yesterday that level gave way and we closed below the 20-day. That, in turn, paved the way for further technical selling that took place earlier today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管油價高企，仍然保持在 100 美元以上，歐元在 1.1700 水平附近吸引了買盤幾天。但昨天該水平被突破，我們收盤於 20 日均線以下。這反過來為今天早些時候進一步的技術性拋售鋪平了道路。</p>
</div><p>The EUR/USD could now hold below 1.1700 given the broader deterioration in global risk sentiment, and a fresh rally in oil prices. At the same time, if the AI-driven enthusiasm that has fuelled equity markets could also fade, especially with Nvidia’s earnings next week representing a major event. So, the downside risk to the EUR/USD forecast are increasing as we have been warning throughout the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到全球風險情緒的整體惡化和油價的新一輪上漲，EUR/USD 現在可能會保持在 1.1700 以下。同時，如果推動股市的人工智能熱情也可能減退，尤其是考慮到下週 Nvidia 的財報將是一個重大事件。因此，EUR/USD 預測的下行風險正在增加，正如我們在本週所警告的那樣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Next support on the EUR/USD chart is seen around the 1.1575-1.1605 area, followed by 1.1500 handle if risk deteriorates sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR/USD 圖表上的下一個支撐位在 1.1575-1.1605 區域，如果風險急劇惡化，則可能會跌至 1.1500。</p>
</div><h2>What will markets be watching next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場接下來會關注什麼？</h2>
</div><p>As before, markets remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding Iran and AI-related themes, particularly given the knock-on impact through equities and broader risk appetite. With little progress emerging from the Gulf situation, and global yields risings, the US dollar can keep on pushing higher from here. Unless markets receive a meaningful positive catalyst soon, the risks continue to favour the greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，市場對圍繞伊朗和人工智能相關主題的發展高度敏感，特別是考慮到這些因素對股票和更廣泛風險偏好的影響。隨着海灣局勢進展有限，全球收益率上升，美元可以繼續在此基礎上走高。除非市場很快獲得有意義的積極催化劑，否則風險繼續偏向美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

歐元/美元預測：隨着收益率和美元的持續上漲，市場風險偏好受到衝擊——外匯週五