<p>作者：Jeffry Bartash</p>
<p>到目前為止，伊朗戰爭的影響有限</p>
<p>由於消費者支出，美國經濟並未受到伊朗戰爭的嚴重影響。</p>
<p>在伊朗戰爭開始近三個月後，美國人仍在大量消費，以保持美國經濟的持續增長。雖然出現了一些壓力跡象，但不足以表明經濟會出現重大下滑。</p>
<p>關於消費者支出的最新證據——經濟的主要引擎——顯示，自 2 月底伊朗衝突開始以來，家庭購買幾乎沒有減少。</p>
<p>例如，美國零售銷售在四月份連續第三個月以高於趨勢的速度增長，信用卡消費上個月尤其強勁。</p>
<p>“美國消費者真是令人驚歎，” 桑坦德資本市場首席美國經濟學家斯蒂芬·斯坦利表示。“無論遇到什麼困難，消費者支出似乎總能在美國保持穩定。”</p>
<p>穩定的消費者支出，加上人工智能領域商業投資的大幅增長，可能會導致第二季度的強勁增長，這一增長基於被稱為國內生產總值的官方經濟評分標準。</p>
<p>雖然週期仍處於早期階段，但亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的 GDPNow 預測工具預測第二季度增長 4%，是第一季度 2% 增幅的兩倍。</p>
<p>需求與需要</p>
<p>毫無疑問，消費者支出的一個不容忽視的部分是由於與伊朗衝突相關的油價大幅上漲。更高的能源成本已將通貨膨脹率推高至三年來的最高點 3.8%——而且可能還會進一步上升。</p>
<p>然而，大多數商品和服務的成本自戰爭以來並沒有上漲太多，除了汽油或機票等非常明顯的價格。更高的能源價格需要時間才能滲透到經濟的每一個角落。</p>
<p>在四月份，美國人在網上購物或外出就餐上花了很多錢。互聯網銷售增長超過 1%，餐廳消費在過去三個月中第二次大幅上升。</p>
<p>“顯然，消費者並沒有減少他們的亞馬遜訂單或外出就餐的次數，” 傑富瑞公司的首席美國經濟學家托馬斯·西蒙斯表示。</p>
<p>這些購買——需求而非需要——在經濟信號中至關重要。當美國人感到經濟安全時，這些消費會增加，而當家庭面臨壓力時則會減少。</p>
<p>“如果家庭面臨嚴重的財務困境，他們就不會經常外出就餐，” 斯坦利認為。“我認為這一類別的良好增長是消費者感到不錯的明顯跡象。”</p>
<p>消費者行為分析師奇普·韋斯特表示，美國人對油價上漲的反應是更加挑剔地選擇購買的商品。他們尋找更多的優惠和折扣，購買自有品牌，並使用忠誠度計劃的積分。</p>
<p>“購物者對價格感到沮喪，但他們並沒有停止消費，” RR Donnelley 的類別戰略總監韋斯特表示。“相反，他們變得更加具有戰略性和選擇性。”</p>
<p>信用卡還是借記卡？</p>
<p>信用卡和銀行賬户數據也顯示出消費者支出的韌性。</p>
<p>美國銀行研究所表示，其內部數據顯示，在截至四月份的 12 個月中，除了汽油外，所有商品和服務的信用卡消費增長了 4%。</p>
<p>“無論是否包括汽油，四月份的消費都很強勁，” 該研究所表示。</p>
<p>一些經濟學家對此持不同意見。他們認為消費者只是原地踏步；更高的通貨膨脹意味着他們的生活水平沒有改善。</p>
<p>“雖然資金可能在消費，但購買的東西卻不多，” 宏觀復興研究的經濟學主管尼爾·達圖表示。</p>
<p>其他分析師指出，信用卡消費的增加是一個警告信號，表明消費者的財務狀況日益緊張，預示着隨着能源價格和通貨膨脹的上升，家庭財務將受到影響，消費將放緩。</p>
<p>“越來越多的消費者轉向儲蓄和信用來維持消費，” 安永帕特農的經濟學家格雷戈裏·達科和莉迪亞·布索爾寫道。“這些趨勢越來越難以維持，特別是對於低收入家庭。”</p>
<p>‘K 型’ 經濟</p>
<p>美國銀行研究所同意，低收入家庭感受到更多壓力並在削減開支。</p>
<p>然而，它也指出，銀行存款狀況良好，信用卡使用處於安全水平，只有大約一半的税收退款被花費。</p>
<p>“家庭在短期內有一些緩衝來支持他們的消費，” 該研究所表示。</p>
<p>低失業率和接近歷史低點的裁員水平也是進一步消費的重要支柱，因為人們在工作安全時會消費更多。</p>
<p>然而，高收入和低收入家庭之間的差距是經濟學家最擔憂的問題之一——他們稱之為 “K 型” 經濟。</p>
<p>富裕的美國人過得很好：強勁的股票牛市創造了大量 401(k) 百萬富翁，他們的房產價值也相當可觀。高收入人羣還擁有更多的電動車和混合動力車，且在汽油上的支出較少。</p>
<p>生活在薪水到薪水之間的低收入家庭幾乎沒有財務緩衝。如果油價持續高企，情況將變得更糟，因為他們在燃料和交通成本上的支出佔收入的比例更大。</p>
<p>最終，這些壓力可能足以抑制經濟，尤其是如果利率繼續上升。富裕的美國人無法無限期地支撐經濟——他們的數量並不足夠。</p>
<p>“財富效應和個人所得税減免繼續支撐美國消費者支出，但上升的通貨膨脹和較高的長期利率可能會開始產生更大的壓力，” BMO 資本市場的高級經濟學家薩爾·瓜特里表示。</p>
<p>——Jeffry Bartash</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》發佈。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>05-16-26 0900ET</p>

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<p>儘管油價高企和通貨膨脹，美國消費者支出依然強勁，支持經濟增長。四月份零售銷售上升，信用卡消費增加，顯示出消費者的韌性。然而，一些經濟學家警告稱，通貨膨脹可能正在侵蝕生活水平，低收入家庭感受到更大的財務壓力。經濟顯示出 “K 型” 復甦的跡象，富裕的美國人表現得比低收入者更好</p>

<p>By Jeffry Bartash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jeffry Bartash</p>
</div><p>The effects of Iran war have been muted so far</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，伊朗戰爭的影響有限</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economy hasn't been hurt much by the Iran war thanks to consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於消費者支出，美國經濟並未受到伊朗戰爭的嚴重影響。</p>
</div><p>Nearly three months into the Iran war, Americans are still spending plenty of money to keep the U.S. economy on the up and up. Some signs of stress have emerged, but not enough to suggest a major stumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗戰爭開始近三個月後，美國人仍在大量消費，以保持美國經濟的持續增長。雖然出現了一些壓力跡象，但不足以表明經濟會出現重大下滑。</p>
</div><p>The latest evidence on consumer spending - the main engine of the economy - shows little or no pullback in household purchases since the Iran conflict began at the end of February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於消費者支出的最新證據——經濟的主要引擎——顯示，自 2 月底伊朗衝突開始以來，家庭購買幾乎沒有減少。</p>
</div><p>U.S retail sales rose in April at an above-trend pace for the third month in a row, for example, and credit-card spending was particularly strong last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，美國零售銷售在四月份連續第三個月以高於趨勢的速度增長，信用卡消費上個月尤其強勁。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The U.S. consumer is simply remarkable,&#34; said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander Capital Markets. &#34;Through thick and thin, consumer spending always seems to hold up in the U.S., regardless of the headwinds that households face. &#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美國消費者真是令人驚歎，” 桑坦德資本市場首席美國經濟學家斯蒂芬·斯坦利表示。“無論遇到什麼困難，消費者支出似乎總能在美國保持穩定。”</p>
</div><p>Stable consumer spending, plus a big surge in business investment in artificial intelligence, could lead to robust second-quarter growth based on the official scorecard for the economy known as gross domestic product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穩定的消費者支出，加上人工智能領域商業投資的大幅增長，可能會導致第二季度的強勁增長，這一增長基於被稱為國內生產總值的官方經濟評分標準。</p>
</div><p>It's still early in the cycle, but the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecasting tool predicts 4% growth in the second quarter, double the 2% increase in the first three months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然週期仍處於早期階段，但亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的 GDPNow 預測工具預測第二季度增長 4%，是第一季度 2% 增幅的兩倍。</p>
</div><p>Wants and needs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求與需要</p>
</div><p>A not-insignificant portion of consumer spending, to be sure, is the result of a big jump in gas prices since the conflict with Iran. Higher energy costs have pushed the rate of inflation to a three-year high of 3.8% - and it could go higher still.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，消費者支出的一個不容忽視的部分是由於與伊朗衝突相關的油價大幅上漲。更高的能源成本已將通貨膨脹率推高至三年來的最高點 3.8%——而且可能還會進一步上升。</p>
</div><p>The cost of most goods and services, however, haven't risen that much since the war, save for very visible prices such as gasoline or airline tickets. It takes time for higher energy prices to work their way into every nook and cranny of the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，大多數商品和服務的成本自戰爭以來並沒有上漲太多，除了汽油或機票等非常明顯的價格。更高的能源價格需要時間才能滲透到經濟的每一個角落。</p>
</div><p>In April, Americans spent a lot of money shopping online or going out to eat for dinner. Internet sales rose more than 1% and restaurant spending was up sharply for the second time in the past three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在四月份，美國人在網上購物或外出就餐上花了很多錢。互聯網銷售增長超過 1%，餐廳消費在過去三個月中第二次大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Clearly, consumers didn't trim back their Amazon shipments or restaurant trips,&#34; said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“顯然，消費者並沒有減少他們的亞馬遜訂單或外出就餐的次數，” 傑富瑞公司的首席美國經濟學家托馬斯·西蒙斯表示。</p>
</div><p>These are the sorts of purchases - wants, not needs - that are crucial as an economic signal. They rise when Americans feel secure enough financially, and soften when families are under duress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些購買——需求而非需要——在經濟信號中至關重要。當美國人感到經濟安全時，這些消費會增加，而當家庭面臨壓力時則會減少。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Households would not be going out to dinner regularly if they were in serious financial trouble,&#34; Stanley contended. &#34;The decent gains in this category are, in my view, a telltale sign that the consumer feels OK.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果家庭面臨嚴重的財務困境，他們就不會經常外出就餐，” 斯坦利認為。“我認為這一類別的良好增長是消費者感到不錯的明顯跡象。”</p>
</div><p>Consumer-behavior analyst Chip West says Americans have responded to higher gas prices by being more selective in what they buy. They search for more deals and discounts, buy in-house brands and use bonus points from loyalty programs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者行為分析師奇普·韋斯特表示，美國人對油價上漲的反應是更加挑剔地選擇購買的商品。他們尋找更多的優惠和折扣，購買自有品牌，並使用忠誠度計劃的積分。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Shoppers are frustrated by prices, but they haven't stopped spending,&#34; said West, director of category strategy at RR Donnelley. &#34;Instead, they've become far more strategic and selective.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“購物者對價格感到沮喪，但他們並沒有停止消費，” RR Donnelley 的類別戰略總監韋斯特表示。“相反，他們變得更加具有戰略性和選擇性。”</p>
</div><p>Credit or debit?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信用卡還是借記卡？</p>
</div><p>Credit-card and banking account data also point to resilient consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信用卡和銀行賬户數據也顯示出消費者支出的韌性。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America Institute said its internal data showed a springy 4% increase in credit-card spending in the 12 months ended in April on all goods and services other than gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行研究所表示，其內部數據顯示，在截至四月份的 12 個月中，除了汽油外，所有商品和服務的信用卡消費增長了 4%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;With or without gasoline, spending was strong in April,&#34; the institute said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“無論是否包括汽油，四月份的消費都很強勁，” 該研究所表示。</p>
</div><p>Some economists disagree. They argue consumers are just running in place; higher inflation means their standard of living isn't getting any better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些經濟學家對此持不同意見。他們認為消費者只是原地踏步；更高的通貨膨脹意味着他們的生活水平沒有改善。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Dollars might be getting spent, but not much stuff is being bought,&#34; said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Macro Renaissance Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“雖然資金可能在消費，但購買的東西卻不多，” 宏觀復興研究的經濟學主管尼爾·達圖表示。</p>
</div><p>Other analysts point to higher credit-card spending as a warning sign that consumers are increasingly stretched, foreshadowing slower spending ahead as higher energy prices and rising inflation sap household finances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他分析師指出，信用卡消費的增加是一個警告信號，表明消費者的財務狀況日益緊張，預示着隨着能源價格和通貨膨脹的上升，家庭財務將受到影響，消費將放緩。</p>
</div><p>&#34;More consumers are turning to savings and credit to sustain spending,&#34; wrote economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of EY Parthenon. &#34;These trends are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, particularly for lower-income households.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“越來越多的消費者轉向儲蓄和信用來維持消費，” 安永帕特農的經濟學家格雷戈裏·達科和莉迪亞·布索爾寫道。“這些趨勢越來越難以維持，特別是對於低收入家庭。”</p>
</div><p>'K-shaped' economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘K 型’ 經濟</p>
</div><p>Bank of America Institute concurred that lower-income households are feeling more stress and cutting back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行研究所同意，低收入家庭感受到更多壓力並在削減開支。</p>
</div><p>Yet it also noted bank deposits are in good shape, credit-card usage is at safe levels and only about half of all tax refunds have been spent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，它也指出，銀行存款狀況良好，信用卡使用處於安全水平，只有大約一半的税收退款被花費。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Households have some near-term buffers to support their spending,&#34; the institute said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“家庭在短期內有一些緩衝來支持他們的消費，” 該研究所表示。</p>
</div><p>A low unemployment rate and near-record-low level of layoffs are also big pillars of support for further spending, as people spend more when they feel secure in their jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低失業率和接近歷史低點的裁員水平也是進一步消費的重要支柱，因為人們在工作安全時會消費更多。</p>
</div><p>Still, the split between higher- and lower-income families is one of the chief worries of economists - what they refer to as a &#34;K-shaped&#34; economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，高收入和低收入家庭之間的差距是經濟學家最擔憂的問題之一——他們稱之為 “K 型” 經濟。</p>
</div><p>Wealthier Americans are doing fine: A powerful bull market in stocks has created scores of 401(k) millionaires, and their homes are worth a small fortune. Upper-income people also own a larger share of electric vehicles and hybrids, and don't spend as much on gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富裕的美國人過得很好：強勁的股票牛市創造了大量 401(k) 百萬富翁，他們的房產價值也相當可觀。高收入人羣還擁有更多的電動車和混合動力車，且在汽油上的支出較少。</p>
</div><p>Lower-income families living from paycheck to paycheck have far less of a financial cushion, if any at all. The longer gas prices remain high, the worse it will get, since they spend a bigger share of their income on fuel and transportation costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生活在薪水到薪水之間的低收入家庭幾乎沒有財務緩衝。如果油價持續高企，情況將變得更糟，因為他們在燃料和交通成本上的支出佔收入的比例更大。</p>
</div><p>Eventually, these strains could be enough to depress the economy, especially if interest rates keep rising. Richer Americans can't carry the economy by themselves indefinity -there is not enough of them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，這些壓力可能足以抑制經濟，尤其是如果利率繼續上升。富裕的美國人無法無限期地支撐經濟——他們的數量並不足夠。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Wealth effects and personal income-tax cuts continue to prop up American consumer spending, but rising inflation and elevated longer-term interest rates could begin to weigh more heavily,&#34; said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“財富效應和個人所得税減免繼續支撐美國消費者支出，但上升的通貨膨脹和較高的長期利率可能會開始產生更大的壓力，” BMO 資本市場的高級經濟學家薩爾·瓜特里表示。</p>
</div><p>-Jeffry Bartash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Jeffry Bartash</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》發佈。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>05-16-26 0900ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-16-26 0900ET</p>
</div>

High gas prices and inflation are stressing people out - but the economy will be fine as long as they keep spending

Dow Jones

桑坦德銀行

Banco Santander, S.A.

Jefferies Financial

美國銀行

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

高油價和通貨膨脹讓人們感到壓力，但只要人們繼續消費，經濟就會保持穩定