<ul>
<li>日本國債的熊市陡峭化信號顯示出財政和通脹擔憂上升</li>
<li>能源衝擊風險加劇日本的經常賬户前景</li>
<li>日本央行外匯干預風險加劇長期國債的壓力</li>
<li>市場現在預計美聯儲今年將加息 14 個基點</li>
</ul>
<h2>債券警惕者重返日本？</h2>
<p>日本的債券市場發出了越來越令人不安的信號，表明全球能源市場長期中斷所帶來的風險，長期收益率飆升和日元再次走弱表明市場對政策制定者能否在不最終犧牲貨幣或債券市場的情況下控制後果的信心正在減弱。</p>
<p>這種緊張局勢在週一再次顯現，報道稱政府可能編制另一份補充預算，以緩解中東衝突帶來的經濟衝擊，這可能需要在投資者已經要求大幅提高持有長期國債的補償時，進行新的債務發行。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>10 年期日本國債收益率攀升至 1996 年以來的最高水平，而 20 年和 30 年期收益率在另一輪熊市陡峭化中繼續大幅上升。儘管曲線遠端的交易條件往往變得稀薄且不連貫，誇大了個別波動的幅度，但投資者對日益加劇的通脹、經濟和財政擔憂的更廣泛信號正變得越來越難以忽視。</p>
<p>重要的是，儘管美國短期收益率仍然是美元/日元的主要驅動因素，尤其是市場現在預計今年將加息約 14 個基點，但日本的國內背景在理解當局為何在抵禦進一步日元貶值的能力上顯得越來越受限時，正變得越來越重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>為了明確，JGB 的波動並不反映市場對日本央行激進加息的預期。如果是那樣，曲線可能會因短期收益率上升而變得平坦或扭曲。相反，掉期交易者似乎更擔心日本央行落後於形勢，加上財政和經濟風險加劇。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Bloomberg</p>
<h2>日本的能源脆弱性暴露</h2>
<p>在這種環境下，日本尤其脆弱，因為其幾乎完全依賴進口能源。持續高企的油氣價格不僅威脅到進一步抬高通脹，還可能削弱日本的經常賬户狀況，因為更多資金流向海外以支付能源進口。</p>
<p>簡單來説，如果日本需要出售更多日元以購買外幣用於能源採購，而出口收入未能跟上，這可能在錯誤的時機對貨幣施加進一步的下行壓力。</p>
<h2>捍衞日元還是限制收益率？</h2>
<p>本月早些時候在懷疑干預活動後的市場反應也可能為政策制定者提供了重要警示。一旦當局採取措施減緩美元/日元的上漲壓力，壓力立即轉移到 JGB 曲線的後端，長期收益率飆升。壓力並沒有消失，而是找到了另一個出口。</p>
<p>這使得日本政策制定者面臨越來越困難的平衡。允許收益率上升，債務可持續性擔憂加劇。但如果日本央行試圖通過加大市場操作，包括在波動性進一步上升時進行非計劃或緊急的債券購買，來抑制長期債券的波動，壓力釋放閥可能反而會通過更弱的日元來實現。</p>
<h2>美元/日元朝着 160 邁進</h2>
<p>如果日本央行宣佈大規模購買 JGB，可能會導致美元/日元大幅上漲，可能與年初至今的高點 160.73 相撞，如果突破，將與 2024 年設定的數十年高點 161.95 相遇。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>目前，該貨幣對正在測試 159.00 的次要阻力，繼續在本月早些時候日本央行代表政府進行干預活動時設定的低點上升。價格現在高於每個關鍵的中長期移動平均線，早些時候已經突破 50 日均線。突破 159.00 將增加重新測試年初至今高點的可能性。</p>
<p>在當前水平下，值得關注的下行支撐區包括 50 日均線、157.92 的突破區，以及 100 日均線。</p>
<p>在當前環境下，動量指標的作用較小，因為本月早些時候的下行是由非市場力量驅動的。但即便如此，RSI（14）在 50 以上持續上升，而 MACD 已從下方穿越信號線，正朝着正區間邁進。結合近期價格走勢，仍然傾向於上漲。</p>
<p>在當前市場環境中，日本央行的干預風險可能適得其反，可能僅僅是為多頭提供更好的入場水平。如本月早些時候所見，干預不僅未能阻止迴歸先前水平，還可能加劇 JGB 曲線的壓力。</p>

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

日本指數 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>美元/日元的前景受到日本國債收益率上升的困擾，這表明財政和通脹方面的擔憂。日本對進口能源的依賴加劇了其經常賬户問題，可能導致日元走弱。日本央行面臨着一個兩難選擇：是允許收益率上升還是進行干預，這可能進一步削弱日元。目前的市場狀況表明，美元/日元可能上漲至 160，關鍵阻力位在 159.00。近期的干預措施未能有效穩定局勢，引發了對日本債務可持續性的擔憂</p>

<ul>
<li>JGB bear steepening signals rising fiscal and inflation concerns</li>
<li>Energy shock risks worsening Japan’s current account outlook</li>
<li>BOJ FX intervention risks intensifying stress in long-dated JGBs</li>
<li>Markets now price 14bp of Fed tightening this year</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本國債的熊市陡峭化信號顯示出財政和通脹擔憂上升</li>
<li>能源衝擊風險加劇日本的經常賬户前景</li>
<li>日本央行外匯干預風險加劇長期國債的壓力</li>
<li>市場現在預計美聯儲今年將加息 14 個基點</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Bond vigilantes return to Japan?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>債券警惕者重返日本？</h2>
</div><p>Japan’s bond market is sending an increasingly uncomfortable message about the risks posed by prolonged disruption to global energy markets, with soaring long-dated yields and renewed yen weakness suggesting markets are becoming less convinced policymakers can contain the fallout without eventually sacrificing either the currency or the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的債券市場發出了越來越令人不安的信號，表明全球能源市場長期中斷所帶來的風險，長期收益率飆升和日元再次走弱表明市場對政策制定者能否在不最終犧牲貨幣或債券市場的情況下控制後果的信心正在減弱。</p>
</div><p>That tension is on full display again Monday following reports the government may compile another supplementary budget to cushion the economic hit from the Middle East conflict, potentially requiring fresh debt issuance at a time investors are already demanding sharply higher compensation to hold longer-dated government bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種緊張局勢在週一再次顯現，報道稱政府可能編制另一份補充預算，以緩解中東衝突帶來的經濟衝擊，這可能需要在投資者已經要求大幅提高持有長期國債的補償時，進行新的債務發行。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The 10-year JGB yield climbed to the highest level since 1996, while 20 and 30-year yields continued to push aggressively higher in another bear steepening move. While trading conditions further out the curve can often become thin and disjointed, exaggerating the size of individual moves even in Japan, the broader signal from investors about mounting inflation, economic and fiscal concerns is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期日本國債收益率攀升至 1996 年以來的最高水平，而 20 年和 30 年期收益率在另一輪熊市陡峭化中繼續大幅上升。儘管曲線遠端的交易條件往往變得稀薄且不連貫，誇大了個別波動的幅度，但投資者對日益加劇的通脹、經濟和財政擔憂的更廣泛信號正變得越來越難以忽視。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, while US front-end yields remain the primary driver for USD/JPY, especially with markets now pricing around 14 basis points of additional Fed tightening this year, Japan’s domestic backdrop is becoming an increasingly important secondary story when it comes to understanding why authorities appear increasingly constrained in their ability to repel further yen weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，儘管美國短期收益率仍然是美元/日元的主要驅動因素，尤其是市場現在預計今年將加息約 14 個基點，但日本的國內背景在理解當局為何在抵禦進一步日元貶值的能力上顯得越來越受限時，正變得越來越重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>For clarity purposes, the move in JGBs does not reflect markets pricing in aggressive BOJ tightening. If that were the case, the curve would likely bear or twist flatten as short-dated yields increase more than those for longer-dated bonds. Instead, swaps traders appear more concerned by a combination of the BOJ being behind the curve coupled with escalating fiscal and economic risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了明確，JGB 的波動並不反映市場對日本央行激進加息的預期。如果是那樣，曲線可能會因短期收益率上升而變得平坦或扭曲。相反，掉期交易者似乎更擔心日本央行落後於形勢，加上財政和經濟風險加劇。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Bloomberg</p>
</div><h2>Japan’s energy vulnerability exposed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本的能源脆弱性暴露</h2>
</div><p>Japan is especially vulnerable in this environment given its near-total reliance on imported energy. Persistently high oil and gas prices threaten not only to lift inflation further but also weaken Japan’s current account position as more money flows overseas to pay for energy imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種環境下，日本尤其脆弱，因為其幾乎完全依賴進口能源。持續高企的油氣價格不僅威脅到進一步抬高通脹，還可能削弱日本的經常賬户狀況，因為更多資金流向海外以支付能源進口。</p>
</div><p>In simple terms, if Japan needs to sell more yen to buy foreign currencies for energy purchases while export revenues fail to keep pace, it can create another source of downward pressure on the currency at precisely the wrong time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，如果日本需要出售更多日元以購買外幣用於能源採購，而出口收入未能跟上，這可能在錯誤的時機對貨幣施加進一步的下行壓力。</p>
</div><h2>Defend the yen or cap yields?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>捍衞日元還是限制收益率？</h2>
</div><p>The market reaction following suspected intervention activity earlier this month may also provide an important warning for policymakers. Once authorities moved to slow USD/JPY upside, pressure immediately migrated into the back-end of the JGB curve with long-dated yields surging higher. Rather than disappearing, the stress simply found another outlet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些時候在懷疑干預活動後的市場反應也可能為政策制定者提供了重要警示。一旦當局採取措施減緩美元/日元的上漲壓力，壓力立即轉移到 JGB 曲線的後端，長期收益率飆升。壓力並沒有消失，而是找到了另一個出口。</p>
</div><p>That leaves Japanese policymakers facing an increasingly difficult balancing act. Allow yields to rise and concerns around debt sustainability intensify. But if the BOJ attempts to suppress volatility in longer-dated bonds through stepped-up market operations involving heavier bond buying, including unscheduled or emergency operations should volatility spike further, the pressure release valve may instead come through a much weaker yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得日本政策制定者面臨越來越困難的平衡。允許收益率上升，債務可持續性擔憂加劇。但如果日本央行試圖通過加大市場操作，包括在波動性進一步上升時進行非計劃或緊急的債券購買，來抑制長期債券的波動，壓力釋放閥可能反而會通過更弱的日元來實現。</p>
</div><h2>USD/JPY marches towards 160</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元朝着 160 邁進</h2>
</div><p>If large-scale JGB purchases were to be announced by the BOJ, it could see USD/JPY rip higher, potentially putting it on a collision course with the YTD high of 160.73 and, if broken, the multi-decade swing high of 161.95 set in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果日本央行宣佈大規模購買 JGB，可能會導致美元/日元大幅上漲，可能與年初至今的高點 160.73 相撞，如果突破，將與 2024 年設定的數十年高點 161.95 相遇。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Right now, the pair is testing minor resistance at 159.00, continuing to push higher in an established uptrend from the lows set earlier this month during suspected intervention activity from the BOJ on behalf of the government. The price now trades above each of the key medium and longer-term moving averages, having breezed through the 50DMA earlier in the session. A break above 159.00 would increase the likelihood of a retest of the YTD highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，該貨幣對正在測試 159.00 的次要阻力，繼續在本月早些時候日本央行代表政府進行干預活動時設定的低點上升。價格現在高於每個關鍵的中長期移動平均線，早些時候已經突破 50 日均線。突破 159.00 將增加重新測試年初至今高點的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Underneath current levels, downside support zones to watch include the 50DMA, the breakout zone at 157.92, followed by the 100DMA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前水平下，值得關注的下行支撐區包括 50 日均線、157.92 的突破區，以及 100 日均線。</p>
</div><p>The momentum indicators are less useful in the current environment given the downside created earlier this month was driven by non-market forces. But even then, RSI (14) is trending higher above 50 while MACD has crossed the signal line from below and is motoring towards positive territory. Combined with recent price action, it continues to favour upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前環境下，動量指標的作用較小，因為本月早些時候的下行是由非市場力量驅動的。但即便如此，RSI（14）在 50 以上持續上升，而 MACD 已從下方穿越信號線，正朝着正區間邁進。結合近期價格走勢，仍然傾向於上漲。</p>
</div><p>In the current market regime, BOJ intervention risks proving counterproductive, potentially doing little more than generating better levels for bulls to enter. As seen earlier this month, intervention not only failed to prevent a return towards prior levels but also risks exacerbating stress further out the JGB curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前市場環境中，日本央行的干預風險可能適得其反，可能僅僅是為多頭提供更好的入場水平。如本月早些時候所見，干預不僅未能阻止迴歸先前水平，還可能加劇 JGB 曲線的壓力。</p>
</div>

美元兑日元的前景：日本國債收益率曲線熊市陡峭化暗示日元面臨更嚴重的問題