<p>作者：龍月，華爾街洞察</p>
<p>接管美聯儲，Warsh 可能剛剛接下全球金融界最熱門的職位。</p>
<p>根據 Fringe Finance 於 5 月 17 日發佈的一篇分析文章，Warsh 上週正式被確認為新任美聯儲主席，投票結果創下歷史上最黨派化的記錄。他面臨着一個充滿問題的宏觀經濟環境：加速的通貨膨脹、飆升的油價、債券市場的波動以及股市估值的飆升。</p>
<p>在他即將接任的那天（5 月 15 日），市場給出了一個預覽。</p>
<p>在他即將接任的那天（5 月 15 日），市場給出了一個預覽。</p>
<p>當天標普 500 指數下跌了 1.24%，納斯達克下跌了 1.54%。然而，Fringe Finance 指出，真正的 “主角” 並不是股市，而是債券市場——30 年期美國國債收益率當天突破了 5.1%，因為債券投資者消化了上週更高的通脹數據以及 “利率可能會比華爾街預期的更長時間保持高位” 的現實。債券市場才是真正的風險源。雖然金融媒體在股市下跌 5% 時可以呼籲 “買入抄底”，但債券市場則不同。分析表明，當國債收益率迅速上升時，金融條件會同時收緊：抵押貸款利率保持高位，企業融資成本增加，商業房地產的再融資壓力加大，聯邦政府自身的利息支出開始膨脹。這不是孤立的市場波動。它將從債券市場蔓延到每一個角落——首次購房者、企業首席財務官、私募股權基金，甚至財政部都會同時感受到壓力。與此同時，美國消費者的財務狀況正在惡化。數據顯示，美國汽車貸款的違約率接近 2008 年金融危機的水平，信用卡違約率也徘徊在危機峯值附近。隨着實際工資不斷被通貨膨脹侵蝕，消費者越來越依賴高利貸來維持日常消費。通貨膨脹數據也不樂觀：CPI 保持在 3.8%，PPI 高達 6%，油價已超過 100 美元。Fringe Finance 直接指出了問題：在這種環境下，美聯儲沒有 “隨意降息” 或重新啓動量化寬鬆的空間——這樣做只會給已經過熱的通貨膨脹火上澆油。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7467633_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7467633_image3.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Warsh 的困境：理想與現實的正面衝突</strong></p>
<p>這正是 Warsh 的困境所在。</p>
<p>這正是 Warsh 的處境最為尷尬的地方。</p>
<p>多年來，他公開主張美聯儲對金融市場的干預過於深入，應該加速減少其 6.7 萬億美元的資產負債表，停止充當 “永久市場承銷商”，迴歸傳統貨幣政策工具。文章的評估直言不諱：“這聽起來高尚、嚴謹，並且與 ‘市場應該自我調節’ 的理念非常一致。但現在，市場正在考驗他是否真正踐行自己的話。” Fringe Finance 指出，當股市繁榮、波動性低時，談論 “道德風險” 很容易。但當債券市場開始 “扔傢俱”（即拋售資產），長期收益率持續攀升，壓力同時施加到經濟的每一個角落時，情況就大不相同了。Warsh 面臨三種選擇，均不輕鬆。這些選擇各有代價：允許收益率繼續上升——市場面臨更廣泛的重新定價，違約率上升，房地產市場疲軟，信貸壓力蔓延至實體經濟。激進降息或恢復債券購買——通貨膨脹已經過熱；這一舉動無異於火上澆油。保持穩定並觀察——債券市場可能會為他做出決定。Fringe Finance 引用了前英國首相莉茲·特拉斯的案例作為提醒：債券投資者可以比你想象的更快讓政策制定者 “屈服”。股市估值：懸在我們頭上的另一個危險時刻與此同時，美國股市估值並未反映這些風險。Shiller P/E 比率目前約為 42，極度高估。這個估值水平的前提是：通貨膨脹迅速降温、利率下降、企業盈利強勁以及流動性充足——換句話説，“幾乎所有事情都需要順利進行，但現在許多事情都在惡化。” 文章總結道：“這不是軟着陸；這是偽裝成晉升的壓力測試。當每個人都關注英偉達一天 4% 的下跌時，Warsh 應該關注美國國債市場——因為那才是他真正的麻煩開始的地方。”</p>

納斯達克 100 指數

納斯達克綜合指數

標普 500 指數

<p>斯坦利·沃什已在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中接任美聯儲主席，該環境的特點是通貨膨脹上升、債券市場波動以及股價下跌。在他任命之前，標普 500 指數和納斯達克指數均出現下跌，而 30 年期美國國債收益率超過 5.1%。沃什面臨兩難局面：他必須在不採取可能加劇通貨膨脹的激進降息措施的情況下，駕馭威脅經濟穩定的收益率上升。目前的股票估值也令人擔憂，表明未來可能存在風險</p>

<p>Author: Long Yue, Wall Street Insights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：龍月，華爾街洞察</p>
</div><p>Taking over the Federal Reserve, Warsh may have just taken on the hottest position in the global financial world right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接管美聯儲，Warsh 可能剛剛接下全球金融界最熱門的職位。</p>
</div><p>According to an analysis article published by Fringe Finance on May 17, Warsh was officially confirmed as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve last week with the most partisan vote in history. He faces a macroeconomic environment riddled with problems: accelerating inflation, soaring oil prices, bond market volatility, and soaring stock market valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Fringe Finance 於 5 月 17 日發佈的一篇分析文章，Warsh 上週正式被確認為新任美聯儲主席，投票結果創下歷史上最黨派化的記錄。他面臨着一個充滿問題的宏觀經濟環境：加速的通貨膨脹、飆升的油價、債券市場的波動以及股市估值的飆升。</p>
</div><p>On the Friday he was about to take over (May 15), the market gave a preview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他即將接任的那天（5 月 15 日），市場給出了一個預覽。</p>
</div><p>On the Friday he was about to take over (May 15), the market gave a preview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他即將接任的那天（5 月 15 日），市場給出了一個預覽。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.24% and the Nasdaq fell 1.54% that day. However, Fringe Finance pointed out that the real &#34;protagonist&#34; of the day was not the stock market, but the bond market—the yield on the 30-year US Treasury note broke through 5.1% that day, as bond investors digested last week's hotter inflation data and the reality that &#34;interest rates may remain high for longer than Wall Street expects.&#34; The bond market is the real source of risk. While financial media can call for &#34;buying the dip&#34; when the stock market falls 5%, the bond market is different. Analysis indicates that when Treasury yields rise rapidly, financial conditions tighten simultaneously: mortgage rates remain high, corporate financing costs increase, refinancing pressure on commercial real estate intensifies, and the federal government's own interest expenses begin to balloon. This is not an isolated market fluctuation. It will spread from the bond market to every corner—first-time homebuyers, corporate CFOs, private equity funds, and even the Treasury Department will all feel the pressure simultaneously. Meanwhile, the financial situation of American consumers is deteriorating. Data shows that the default rate on US auto loans is approaching the level of the 2008 financial crisis, and the credit card default rate is also hovering near the crisis peak. Consumers are increasingly relying on high-interest debt to maintain daily consumption as real wages are continuously eroded by inflation. Inflation data is also not optimistic: CPI remains at 3.8%, PPI is as high as 6%, and oil prices have exceeded $100. Fringe Finance directly points out the problem: in this environment, the Federal Reserve has no room to &#34;cut interest rates at will&#34; or restart quantitative easing—doing so would only add fuel to the already overheated inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當天標普 500 指數下跌了 1.24%，納斯達克下跌了 1.54%。然而，Fringe Finance 指出，真正的 “主角” 並不是股市，而是債券市場——30 年期美國國債收益率當天突破了 5.1%，因為債券投資者消化了上週更高的通脹數據以及 “利率可能會比華爾街預期的更長時間保持高位” 的現實。債券市場才是真正的風險源。雖然金融媒體在股市下跌 5% 時可以呼籲 “買入抄底”，但債券市場則不同。分析表明，當國債收益率迅速上升時，金融條件會同時收緊：抵押貸款利率保持高位，企業融資成本增加，商業房地產的再融資壓力加大，聯邦政府自身的利息支出開始膨脹。這不是孤立的市場波動。它將從債券市場蔓延到每一個角落——首次購房者、企業首席財務官、私募股權基金，甚至財政部都會同時感受到壓力。與此同時，美國消費者的財務狀況正在惡化。數據顯示，美國汽車貸款的違約率接近 2008 年金融危機的水平，信用卡違約率也徘徊在危機峯值附近。隨着實際工資不斷被通貨膨脹侵蝕，消費者越來越依賴高利貸來維持日常消費。通貨膨脹數據也不樂觀：CPI 保持在 3.8%，PPI 高達 6%，油價已超過 100 美元。Fringe Finance 直接指出了問題：在這種環境下，美聯儲沒有 “隨意降息” 或重新啓動量化寬鬆的空間——這樣做只會給已經過熱的通貨膨脹火上澆油。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7467633_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7467633_image3.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Wash's Dilemma: A Head-on Clash Between Ideals and Reality</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Warsh 的困境：理想與現實的正面衝突</strong></p>
</div><p>This is precisely where Walsh's predicament lies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是 Warsh 的困境所在。</p>
</div><p>This is precisely where Walsh's situation is most awkward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是 Warsh 的處境最為尷尬的地方。</p>
</div><p>For years, he has publicly argued that the Federal Reserve has intervened too deeply in the financial markets and should accelerate the reduction of its $6.7 trillion balance sheet, stop acting as the &#34;permanent market undertaker,&#34; and return to traditional monetary policy tools. The article's assessment is blunt: &#34;It sounds noble, disciplined, and very much in line with the idea that 'the market should stand on its own.' But now, the market is testing whether he truly lives up to his words.&#34; Fringe Finance points out that it's easy to give a speech about &#34;moral hazard&#34; when the stock market is booming and volatility is low. But when the bond market starts to &#34;throw furniture&#34; (i.e., sell off assets), long-term yields continue to climb, and pressure is applied to every corner of the economy simultaneously, that's a different story. Warsh faced three options, none of which were easy. Each of these options came at a cost: Allowing yields to continue rising—the market faced broader repricing, default rates rose, the housing market weakened, and credit pressure spread to the real economy. Aggressive interest rate cuts or a resumption of bond purchases—Inflation is already overheated; this move would be tantamount to adding fuel to the fire. Holding steady and observing—The bond market may make the decision for him. Fringe Finance cites the case of former British Prime Minister Liz Truss as a reminder: bond investors can make policymakers &#34;bow down&#34; faster than you might expect. Stock Market Valuation: Another Time of Danger Hanging Over Our Heads Meanwhile, US stock valuations do not reflect these risks. The Shiller P/E ratio is currently around 42, which is extremely overvalued. This valuation level is predicated on: rapidly cooling inflation, declining interest rates, strong corporate earnings, and ample liquidity—in other words, &#34;almost everything needs to be going well, but right now many things are going badly.&#34; The article concludes: &#34;This isn't a soft landing; it's a stress test disguised as a promotion. While everyone's focused on Nvidia's 4% drop one day, Walsh should be watching the US Treasury market—because that's where his real trouble begins.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年來，他公開主張美聯儲對金融市場的干預過於深入，應該加速減少其 6.7 萬億美元的資產負債表，停止充當 “永久市場承銷商”，迴歸傳統貨幣政策工具。文章的評估直言不諱：“這聽起來高尚、嚴謹，並且與 ‘市場應該自我調節’ 的理念非常一致。但現在，市場正在考驗他是否真正踐行自己的話。” Fringe Finance 指出，當股市繁榮、波動性低時，談論 “道德風險” 很容易。但當債券市場開始 “扔傢俱”（即拋售資產），長期收益率持續攀升，壓力同時施加到經濟的每一個角落時，情況就大不相同了。Warsh 面臨三種選擇，均不輕鬆。這些選擇各有代價：允許收益率繼續上升——市場面臨更廣泛的重新定價，違約率上升，房地產市場疲軟，信貸壓力蔓延至實體經濟。激進降息或恢復債券購買——通貨膨脹已經過熱；這一舉動無異於火上澆油。保持穩定並觀察——債券市場可能會為他做出決定。Fringe Finance 引用了前英國首相莉茲·特拉斯的案例作為提醒：債券投資者可以比你想象的更快讓政策制定者 “屈服”。股市估值：懸在我們頭上的另一個危險時刻與此同時，美國股市估值並未反映這些風險。Shiller P/E 比率目前約為 42，極度高估。這個估值水平的前提是：通貨膨脹迅速降温、利率下降、企業盈利強勁以及流動性充足——換句話説，“幾乎所有事情都需要順利進行，但現在許多事情都在惡化。” 文章總結道：“這不是軟着陸；這是偽裝成晉升的壓力測試。當每個人都關注英偉達一天 4% 的下跌時，Warsh 應該關注美國國債市場——因為那才是他真正的麻煩開始的地方。”</p>
</div>

US Treasury bonds can no longer hold up, US stocks have started to fall, what should Walsh do?

- Warsh 成為美聯儲新主席，面臨高通脹和市場波動的挑戰。  
- 債市風險上升，30 年期國債收益率突破 5.1%。  
- 美國消費者信貸狀況惡化，違約率接近 2008 年危機水平。

CoinLive

道瓊斯指數

3 倍做空納指 ETF - ProShares

道瓊斯工業平均分紅 ETF - Invesco

3 倍做空標普 500 ETF - ProShares

納斯達克綜合指數 ETF - Fidelity

3 倍做空道指 30 ETF - ProShares

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

2 倍做多納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多道指 ETF - ProShares

美國短期國債 ETF - Vanguard

20 年期以上美國國債 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多道指 30 ETF - ProShares

納指 100 ETF - Invesco

道富SPDR彭博1-3個月美國國債ETF

納斯達克 100 平均加權指數 ETF - First Trust

道瓊斯指數 ETF - SPDR

美國中期國債 ETF - iShares

標普 500 指數股票型基金

3 倍做多納指 ETF - ProShares

納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - Invesco

美國短期國債指數 ETF - iShares

7-10 年美國國債 ETF - iShares

英偉達

NVIDIA Corporation

美國國債已經無法支撐，美國股市開始下跌，沃爾什應該如何應對？