<p>風險資產的新一週開始得相對平靜，使得英鎊從接近 1.3300 的低點反彈至約 1.3380。歐洲股市和美國指數期貨在亞洲市場開盤時最初延續了週五的下跌後，表現出回升的跡象。但這種平靜是否會持續還有待觀察。現在很多事情取決於油價。如果油價回升，我們預計債券市場將面臨進一步壓力，這將限制風險偏好。簡而言之，短期內 GBP/USD 的預測仍然偏向下行，但現在很多因素取決於能源價格、全球債券收益率和投資者的整體情緒。</p>
<h2>美元回落，油價回落</h2>
<p>儘管對英國經濟的擔憂也日益明顯，但主要驅動因素仍然是全球固定收益市場的激進重新定價。今天早上，英鎊和其他風險資產設法從低點反彈。除了獲利了結外，Tasnim 的一份報告稱美國在談判期間提議暫時豁免對伊朗的石油制裁，這導致油價從早前的高點回落。這是否會導致油價大幅下跌，因為投資者在考慮戰爭可能結束的情況下進行定價？伊朗堅持認為，解除對伊朗的所有制裁應是美國的承諾之一，但如果得到確認，這將是一個良好的第一步。油價從早前的高點下跌了約 5 美元，這對美元產生了普遍的壓力。</p>
<h2>關注債券收益率</h2>
<p>油價的回落是否會轉化為收益率的下降還有待觀察。上週五，在通脹數據高於預期後，美國國債收益率再次飆升，強化了市場對美聯儲可能需要維持鷹派基調更長時間的預期。在美國與伊朗的僵局中，原油價格的高企正在給全球市場帶來通脹衝擊。對於像英鎊這樣的貨幣，因其對增長預期和外部風險敏感，環境變得越來越具有挑戰性。</p>
<p>本週，美元開始走低。但這是在上週國債收益率再次大幅上升的背景下發生的。基準 10 年期收益率已攀升至 2025 年初以來的最高水平，延續了上週通脹數據公佈後上漲的趨勢。</p>
<p>除了 CPI 高於預期外，美國的 PPI 通脹也顯著上升，進一步加劇了人們對通脹壓力比政策制定者預期的要持久得多的擔憂。市場越來越質疑美聯儲在價格壓力仍然高企的情況下是否有空間繼續討論最終的放鬆政策。</p>
<p>結果是債券市場普遍重新定價。投資者要求更高的收益率以補償通脹風險，這一變化支撐了美元對大多數主要貨幣的表現。</p>
<p>本週的關注將轉向美聯儲官員的評論以及最新 FOMC 會議紀要的發佈。美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒定於週二發言，而週三的會議紀要可能會提供更多關於政策制定者如何認真對待近期通脹反彈的線索。</p>
<p>目前，收益率上升和風險偏好減弱的組合繼續有利於美元。</p>
<h2>政治不確定性影響 GBP/USD 預測</h2>
<p>由於英國的政治不確定性，英鎊最近也承受了壓力。在上週大幅下跌後，GBP/USD 與大多數其他風險資產一起反彈。但從這裏看，反彈的空間似乎有限，1.3400 可能會提供一些阻力，因為基爾·斯塔默在地方選舉結果令人失望後繼續面臨批評，這使得英國的財政和經濟方向再次充滿不確定性。在英國經濟已經脆弱於高能源成本的情況下，市場對政治不穩定的敏感度正在加大。</p>
<p>考慮到英國對進口能源的依賴，這一風險尤為嚴重。高企的原油價格和霍爾木茲海峽的持續干擾威脅着加深通脹壓力，同時削弱消費者需求和商業信心。在這種背景下，賣方可能會在任何有意義的反彈中重新出現，就像我們今天看到的那樣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1788" height="766" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>在 1.3400 以上，下一個關鍵阻力位在 1.3450，然後是 1.3500。潛在支撐位在 1.3300、1.3250 和 1.3140。</p>
<h2>到目前為止，英國已度過難關</h2>
<p>儘管如此，仍然有一些令人鼓舞的經濟信號。國際貨幣基金組織將其對 2026 年英國經濟增長的預測上調至 1%，高於之前的 0.8%。然而，IMF 也警告稱，英國仍然特別容易受到中東緊張局勢和持續國內不確定性的經濟影響。</p>
<p>上週發佈的英國 GDP 數據展現了一定的韌性。英國經濟在第一季度環比增長 0.6%，高於之前的 0.2% 並符合預期。儘管對能源成本上升和通脹壓力的擔憂，3 月份的 GDP 也意外地增長了 0.3%。</p>
<p>重要的是，增長相對廣泛。服務業、製造業和建築業都作出了積極貢獻，這表明擴張並非僅由臨時因素或消費者支出扭曲所驅動。</p>
<h2>關注英國通脹和全球 PMI</h2>
<p>市場現在將注意力轉向週三的英國通脹數據。考慮到最近油價的跳漲和全球債券收益率的急劇上升，這一發布可能顯得尤為重要。</p>
<p>英國國債收益率在最近幾天大幅上升，反映了政治擔憂和能源市場引發的更廣泛的通脹恐慌。如果英國消費者物價指數（CPI）數據也出現意外上升，投資者可能會開始預期英格蘭銀行將維持更長時間的緊縮貨幣政策。</p>
<p>這種情況可能會在英鎊、國債和英國股票市場產生新的波動。</p>
<p>本週晚些時候，來自英國、歐元區和美國的快速採購經理人指數（PMI）數據將提供全球經濟動能在夏季前的更廣泛快照。投資者將密切關注製造業活動是否受到油價的拖累，以及服務業是否能夠繼續緩解全球經濟增長放緩的壓力。</p>
<p>對於英鎊/美元的預測，短期前景依然困難。油價上漲、頑固的通脹和更高的債券收益率繼續支持美元，而英鎊則面臨國內政治不確定性和對英國外部衝擊暴露的日益擔憂。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

英鎊 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>GBP/USD 的預測顯示短期內可能出現下行，受到能源價格和全球債券收益率的影響。英鎊略微回升至約 1.3380，但英國的政治不確定性和美國國債收益率的上升帶來了挑戰。油價有所回落，影響了美元，而國際貨幣基金組織將英國的增長預測上調至 1%。GBP/USD 的關鍵阻力位在 1.3400 和 1.3450，支撐位在 1.3300</p>

<p>It has been a much calmer start to the new week for risk assets, allowing sterling to stage a decent recovery from near 1.3300 to around 1.3380. European stock markets and US index futures were firmer, after initially extending Friday’s drop at the Asian open overnight. But whether the calm will last remains to be seen. A lot depends on oil now. Should oil go back up, we’d then expect further pressure on the bond markets, and this should limit risk appetite. In short, the near-term GBP/USD forecast still leans to the downside, but a lot now depend on energy prices, global bond yields and investor sentiment generally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>風險資產的新一週開始得相對平靜，使得英鎊從接近 1.3300 的低點反彈至約 1.3380。歐洲股市和美國指數期貨在亞洲市場開盤時最初延續了週五的下跌後，表現出回升的跡象。但這種平靜是否會持續還有待觀察。現在很多事情取決於油價。如果油價回升，我們預計債券市場將面臨進一步壓力，這將限制風險偏好。簡而言之，短期內 GBP/USD 的預測仍然偏向下行，但現在很多因素取決於能源價格、全球債券收益率和投資者的整體情緒。</p>
</div><h2>Dollar eases as oil falls back</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元回落，油價回落</h2>
</div><p>While concerns surrounding the UK economy are also becoming more visible, the key driver remains the aggressive repricing in global fixed income markets. This morning, though, the pound and other risk assets managed to bounce off their lows. As well as profit-taking, a report by Tasnim that the US had proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions during the negotiation period caused oil to ease back from its earlier highs. Will this lead to a big drop in oil as investors price in a potential end to the war? Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US's commitments, but this is good first step, if confirmed. Oil fell around $5 from its earlier highs and this weighed on the US dollar across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對英國經濟的擔憂也日益明顯，但主要驅動因素仍然是全球固定收益市場的激進重新定價。今天早上，英鎊和其他風險資產設法從低點反彈。除了獲利了結外，Tasnim 的一份報告稱美國在談判期間提議暫時豁免對伊朗的石油制裁，這導致油價從早前的高點回落。這是否會導致油價大幅下跌，因為投資者在考慮戰爭可能結束的情況下進行定價？伊朗堅持認為，解除對伊朗的所有制裁應是美國的承諾之一，但如果得到確認，這將是一個良好的第一步。油價從早前的高點下跌了約 5 美元，這對美元產生了普遍的壓力。</p>
</div><h2>Keep an eye on bond yields</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關注債券收益率</h2>
</div><p>Whether the easing of oil will translate into lower yields remains to be seen. On Friday, a renewed surge in US Treasury yields after hotter-than-expected inflation data last week reinforced expectations that the Fed may need to maintain a hawkish tone for longer. Elevated crude prices amid the US-Iran stalemate are creating inflationary shock for global markets. For currencies such as sterling, which are sensitive to growth expectations and external risks, the environment is becoming increasingly challenging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價的回落是否會轉化為收益率的下降還有待觀察。上週五，在通脹數據高於預期後，美國國債收益率再次飆升，強化了市場對美聯儲可能需要維持鷹派基調更長時間的預期。在美國與伊朗的僵局中，原油價格的高企正在給全球市場帶來通脹衝擊。對於像英鎊這樣的貨幣，因其對增長預期和外部風險敏感，環境變得越來越具有挑戰性。</p>
</div><p>This week, the US dollar has started the lower. But this comes on the back of a noticeable rally last week after another sharp rise in Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield has meanwhile climbed to its highest level since the opening months of 2025, extending the move higher that followed last week’s inflation figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，美元開始走低。但這是在上週國債收益率再次大幅上升的背景下發生的。基準 10 年期收益率已攀升至 2025 年初以來的最高水平，延續了上週通脹數據公佈後上漲的趨勢。</p>
</div><p>As well as a hotter CPI, PPI inflation in the US surprised significantly to the upside, fuelling concern that inflationary pressures are proving far more persistent than policymakers had hoped. Markets are increasingly questioning whether the Federal Reserve has room to continue discussing eventual easing while price pressures remain elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 CPI 高於預期外，美國的 PPI 通脹也顯著上升，進一步加劇了人們對通脹壓力比政策制定者預期的要持久得多的擔憂。市場越來越質疑美聯儲在價格壓力仍然高企的情況下是否有空間繼續討論最終的放鬆政策。</p>
</div><p>The result has been a broad repricing across bond markets. Investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for inflation risks, and that shift is supporting the dollar against most major currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果是債券市場普遍重新定價。投資者要求更高的收益率以補償通脹風險，這一變化支撐了美元對大多數主要貨幣的表現。</p>
</div><p>Attention this week will turn towards commentary from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, while Wednesday’s minutes may provide further clues about how seriously policymakers are taking the recent inflation rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週的關注將轉向美聯儲官員的評論以及最新 FOMC 會議紀要的發佈。美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒定於週二發言，而週三的會議紀要可能會提供更多關於政策制定者如何認真對待近期通脹反彈的線索。</p>
</div><p>For now, the combination of rising yields and weakening risk appetite continues to favour the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，收益率上升和風險偏好減弱的組合繼續有利於美元。</p>
</div><h2>Political uncertainty clouds GBP/USD forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>政治不確定性影響 GBP/USD 預測</h2>
</div><p>Sterling has also been under pressure in recent times because of political uncertainty in the UK. Following last week’s steep decline, the GBP/USD has bounced back along with most other risk assets. But the upside looks limited form here with 1.3400 likely to offer some resistance as Keir Starmer continues to face criticism following disappointing local election results, creating renewed uncertainty around the UK’s fiscal and economic direction. Markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to political instability at a time when the UK economy is already vulnerable to higher energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於英國的政治不確定性，英鎊最近也承受了壓力。在上週大幅下跌後，GBP/USD 與大多數其他風險資產一起反彈。但從這裏看，反彈的空間似乎有限，1.3400 可能會提供一些阻力，因為基爾·斯塔默在地方選舉結果令人失望後繼續面臨批評，這使得英國的財政和經濟方向再次充滿不確定性。在英國經濟已經脆弱於高能源成本的情況下，市場對政治不穩定的敏感度正在加大。</p>
</div><p>That risk is particularly acute given Britain’s reliance on imported energy. Elevated crude prices and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz threaten to deepen inflationary pressures while simultaneously weakening consumer demand and business confidence. Against this backdrop, the sellers could come back on any meaningful rebounds like the one we have seen today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到英國對進口能源的依賴，這一風險尤為嚴重。高企的原油價格和霍爾木茲海峽的持續干擾威脅着加深通脹壓力，同時削弱消費者需求和商業信心。在這種背景下，賣方可能會在任何有意義的反彈中重新出現，就像我們今天看到的那樣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Above 1.3400, the next key resistance is at 1.3450 and then 1.3500. Potential support is seen at 1.3300, 1.3250 and then 1.3140.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1.3400 以上，下一個關鍵阻力位在 1.3450，然後是 1.3500。潛在支撐位在 1.3300、1.3250 和 1.3140。</p>
</div><h2>So far, the UK has weathered the storm</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>到目前為止，英國已度過難關</h2>
</div><p>There have nevertheless been some encouraging economic signals. The International Monetary Fund upgraded its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 1%, up from 0.8% previously. However, the IMF also warned that the UK remains particularly exposed to the economic fallout from Middle East tensions and ongoing domestic uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，仍然有一些令人鼓舞的經濟信號。國際貨幣基金組織將其對 2026 年英國經濟增長的預測上調至 1%，高於之前的 0.8%。然而，IMF 也警告稱，英國仍然特別容易受到中東緊張局勢和持續國內不確定性的經濟影響。</p>
</div><p>Last week’s release of UK GDP figures offered a degree of resilience. The UK economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, accelerating from 0.2% previously and matching expectations. March GDP also surprised positively with a 0.3% monthly increase despite concerns over rising energy costs and inflation pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週發佈的英國 GDP 數據展現了一定的韌性。英國經濟在第一季度環比增長 0.6%，高於之前的 0.2% 並符合預期。儘管對能源成本上升和通脹壓力的擔憂，3 月份的 GDP 也意外地增長了 0.3%。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, growth was relatively broad-based. Services, manufacturing and construction all contributed positively, suggesting the expansion was not solely driven by temporary factors or consumer spending distortions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，增長相對廣泛。服務業、製造業和建築業都作出了積極貢獻，這表明擴張並非僅由臨時因素或消費者支出扭曲所驅動。</p>
</div><h2>Focus turns to UK inflation and global PMIs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關注英國通脹和全球 PMI</h2>
</div><p>Markets will now shift attention towards Wednesday’s UK inflation figures. The release could prove particularly important given the recent jump in oil prices and the sharp rise in global bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場現在將注意力轉向週三的英國通脹數據。考慮到最近油價的跳漲和全球債券收益率的急劇上升，這一發布可能顯得尤為重要。</p>
</div><p>UK gilt yields have moved aggressively higher in recent sessions, reflecting both political concerns and broader inflation fears stemming from energy markets. If UK CPI data also surprises to the upside, investors may begin pricing in a more prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy from the Bank of England.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國國債收益率在最近幾天大幅上升，反映了政治擔憂和能源市場引發的更廣泛的通脹恐慌。如果英國消費者物價指數（CPI）數據也出現意外上升，投資者可能會開始預期英格蘭銀行將維持更長時間的緊縮貨幣政策。</p>
</div><p>That scenario could generate fresh volatility across sterling, gilts and UK equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況可能會在英鎊、國債和英國股票市場產生新的波動。</p>
</div><p>Later in the week, flash PMI data from the UK, eurozone and the US will offer a broader snapshot of global economic momentum heading into the summer months. Investors will be watching closely for signs that manufacturing activity is being weighed down by oil. and whether the services sector can continue cushioning the slowdown in global growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週晚些時候，來自英國、歐元區和美國的快速採購經理人指數（PMI）數據將提供全球經濟動能在夏季前的更廣泛快照。投資者將密切關注製造業活動是否受到油價的拖累，以及服務業是否能夠繼續緩解全球經濟增長放緩的壓力。</p>
</div><p>For the GBP/USD forecast, the near-term picture remains difficult. Rising oil prices, stubborn inflation and higher bond yields continue to favour the dollar, while sterling faces the additional burden of domestic political uncertainty and growing concerns over the UK’s exposure to external shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於英鎊/美元的預測，短期前景依然困難。油價上漲、頑固的通脹和更高的債券收益率繼續支持美元，而英鎊則面臨國內政治不確定性和對英國外部衝擊暴露的日益擔憂。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

英鎊/美元預測：本週的貨幣對 |2026年5月18日