<p>英國首相基爾·斯塔默在工黨於 5 月 7 日的歷史性地方選舉失利後，失去了政治生存的鬥爭，這引發了他所在黨內的全面叛亂。</p>
<p>這位身處困境的領導人據報道已告知親密盟友，他決定辭職，認為當前的局勢 “不可持續”。《每日郵報》週日報道稱，他將 “以自己選擇的方式” 辭職，引用了一位內閣部長的話。</p>
<p>近 100 名工黨國會議員呼籲他辭職。包括外交大臣伊薇特·庫珀、內政大臣沙巴娜·馬哈茂德、國防大臣約翰·希利和能源大臣埃德·米利班德在內的高級內閣成員據報道也敦促他辭職。</p>
<p>斯塔默在應對內部叛亂的同時，還要管理大規模的公眾抗議。這為已經在考慮英國政治風險的投資者增添了進一步的不確定性。政府借貸成本飆升至金融危機後最高水平，因為市場在定價日益加劇的不確定性。</p>
<p>“對許多人來説，形勢已經明朗，” 瑞穗銀行 EMEA 固定收益策略負責人喬丹·羅切斯特週二表示。“這只是退出發生的速度問題。如果斯塔默辭職，這將成為歷史。沒有現任工黨首相曾面臨領導挑戰或被自己黨內罷免。”</p>
<p>斯塔默的政治危機與右翼活動家湯米·羅賓遜組織的 “團結王國” 遊行在週六交匯。此次抗議活動吸引了超過 60,000 人聚集在倫敦市中心，成為近期英國曆史上最大的極右翼示威之一。這加大了對一個已經在努力應對選舉崩潰後果的政府的壓力。</p>
<h2>斯塔默承諾應對挑戰</h2>
<p>在 5 月 11 日的演講中，斯塔默承諾 “直面重大挑戰”，包括國防、移民和歐洲問題。他表示有意繼續擔任首相，儘管他所在黨內似乎很少有人在傾聽。</p>
<p>“工黨有一個挑戰領導人的程序，但這一程序尚未啓動，” 他表示。“國家期待我們繼續治理。這就是我正在做的，也是我們作為內閣必須做的。”</p>
<p>工黨和保守黨自 1920 年代以來一直塑造着英國的政治格局，在選舉中失去了大量支持。經濟背景也沒有提供太多安慰。3 月份的 GDP 環比增長僅為 0.3%，低於 2 月份的 0.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102811/image-16.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102811/image-16.png"/></p>
<p>環比 GDP，來源：TradingView</p>
<p>與 2022 年和 2024 年的結果相比，工黨的投票份額平均下降了 18 個百分點。保守黨的支持率與 2022 年相比下降了 11 個百分點，與 2024 年相比下降了 10 個百分點。</p>
<h2>英國改革黨和綠黨取得進展</h2>
<p>這些結果意味着對兩黨現狀的全面拒絕，挑戰者在暗中等待機會。</p>
<p>改革黨贏得了 1454 個地方議會席位，淨增 1372 個席位。工黨僅記錄了 1068 個席位，淨損失約 1229 個席位。保守黨也遭受政治打擊，僅獲得 801 個席位，淨損失 433 個席位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102831/image-17-1024x401.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102831/image-17-1024x401.png"/></p>
<p>各黨贏得的議員數量 – 2026 年英國地方選舉，來源：每日電訊報</p>
<p>改革黨領導人奈傑爾·法拉奇稱這些結果為 “改革震盪”。他聲稱他的黨 “可以並將贏得下屆大選”。</p>
<p>法拉奇在 5 月 8 日於英格蘭羅姆福德鎮的演講中表示：“今天是一個重要的日子，不僅對我們的黨而言，也是對英國政治全面重塑的日子。”</p>
<p>綠黨也取得了顯著進展。它贏得了 587 個席位，淨增 393 個席位，在倫敦的各個區取得了顯著的增幅。</p>
<p>“兩黨政治並沒有消亡，” 綠黨領導人扎克·波蘭斯基在選舉後表示。“它已經死去並被埋葬。”</p>
<h2>英國的政治結構正在崩潰</h2>
<p>選舉結果不僅懲罰了工黨，還引發了一場全面的議會叛亂，現在威脅到一個不到兩年任期的政府。</p>
<p>至少 97 名工黨後座議員和超過五分之一的工黨在下議院的代表呼籲斯塔默辭職或設定離職時間表。這超過了根據工黨規則觸發領導競選所需的 81 個門檻。</p>
<p>前英國衞生大臣韋斯·斯特里廷和前副首相安吉拉·雷納已成為斯塔默的接班人。當前在潛在接班人中民調最有利的挑戰者是大曼徹斯特市市長安迪·伯納姆。</p>
<p>他首先需要確保在下議院獲得一個席位才能參選。工黨的全國執行委員會據報道已批准伯納姆參加即將舉行的梅克菲爾德補選，此前喬什·西蒙斯宣佈將辭去議員職務。</p>
<h2>債券市場懲罰斯塔默</h2>
<p>市場已經做出了自己的判斷。基準 10 年期國債收益率在週二上漲了 11 個基點，達到了 5.11%，略低於 2008 年 3 月創下的高點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102858/image-18-994x1024.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102858/image-18-994x1024.png"/></p>
<p>英國 10 年期國債收益率，來源：CNBC</p>
<p>30 年期收益率上漲 10 個基點，達到了 5.84%，接近自 1998 年以來的最高水平。英國已經在 G7 國家中擁有最高的政府借貸成本，其 0 年、20 年和 30 年期債務均超過 5% 的門檻。</p>
<p>金融諮詢公司 deVere Group 的首席執行官 Nigel Green 警告稱，英國 “沒有太多犯錯的空間”，並且 “增長疲軟，借貸水平高，能源相關的通脹壓力依然存在，這意味着即使是信譽的微小損害也會導致重新定價。”</p>
<p>這發生在由於美國與以色列對伊朗的軍事行動引發的油價衝擊而導致的通脹擔憂上升之際。這表明英國央行加息預期的轉變。</p>
<p>“債券市場不僅對 Starmer 可能的離職做出反應，還對他的繼任者可能是誰，以及可能導致更多英國無法承受的財政承諾的漫長領導權鬥爭的前景做出反應，” 經紀公司 XTB 的研究總監 Kathleen Brooks 表示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18101819/image-15-1024x676.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18101819/image-15-1024x676.png"/></p>
<p>30 年期國債收益率圖表，來源：FT</p>
<h2>市場擔心向左轉變</h2>
<p>投資者擔心，傾向左翼的繼任者可能會增加公共借貸，進一步加大對英國脆弱財政的壓力。摩根大通的分析師預計，隨着政策向左轉變，英國的銀行附加税將從 3% 上升至 5%。</p>
<p>政治分析師們認為，Starmer 作為首相的時間岌岌可危。政治風險諮詢公司 Eurasia Group 將 Starmer 在今年被罷免的概率提高到了 80%，而之前為 65%。</p>
<p>“最可能的情況是，議員們將在 9 月之前迫使進行領導選舉（概率為 35%），” Eurasia Group 分析師 Mujtaba Rahman 表示。“有 25% 的機會進行有序過渡，Starmer 同意辭職，還有 20% 的概率立即進行領導選舉。”</p>
<p>隨着 Robinson 的遊行、對 Starmer 辭職的呼聲以及國債收益率飆升，英國面臨着多年來最嚴重的政治和金融考驗。</p>
<p><strong>免責聲明：</strong> 本文中表達的任何觀點均不應被視為投資建議，僅代表作者個人觀點。European Capital Insights 對基於本文內容做出的任何財務決策不承擔責任。讀者可以將本文用於信息和教育目的。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性的編輯。</em></strong></p>

IGLT

<p>英國首相基爾·斯塔默在經歷了一次歷史性的地方選舉失利後，面臨工黨內部的叛亂，近 100 名議員呼籲他辭職。在政府借貸成本上升和政治不確定性加劇的背景下，斯塔默承諾解決關鍵挑戰，但他在維持支持方面面臨困難。這次選舉中，改革英國黨和綠黨獲得了顯著的支持，顯示出英國政治的轉變。債券市場反應消極，10 年期國債收益率大幅上升</p>

<p>British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has lost his fight for political survival after the Labor Party’s historic local election defeat on May 7 sparked a full-scale rebellion within his own party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國首相基爾·斯塔默在工黨於 5 月 7 日的歷史性地方選舉失利後，失去了政治生存的鬥爭，這引發了他所在黨內的全面叛亂。</p>
</div><p>The embattled leader has reportedly told close allies he has decided to step down, concluding the current situation is “unsustainable.” He will resign “in a manner of his own choosing,” the Daily Mail reported on Sunday, citing a cabinet minister.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位身處困境的領導人據報道已告知親密盟友，他決定辭職，認為當前的局勢 “不可持續”。《每日郵報》週日報道稱，他將 “以自己選擇的方式” 辭職，引用了一位內閣部長的話。</p>
</div><p>Nearly 100 Labor Members of Parliament (MPs) have called for his resignation. Senior cabinet members, including Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Defense Secretary John Healey, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, reportedly urged him to go.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近 100 名工黨國會議員呼籲他辭職。包括外交大臣伊薇特·庫珀、內政大臣沙巴娜·馬哈茂德、國防大臣約翰·希利和能源大臣埃德·米利班德在內的高級內閣成員據報道也敦促他辭職。</p>
</div><p>Starmer has navigated an internal mutiny while managing mass public protest. This has added a further layer of uncertainty for investors already pricing in UK political risk. Government borrowing costs surged to post-Great Financial Crisis highs as markets priced in the mounting uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯塔默在應對內部叛亂的同時，還要管理大規模的公眾抗議。這為已經在考慮英國政治風險的投資者增添了進一步的不確定性。政府借貸成本飆升至金融危機後最高水平，因為市場在定價日益加劇的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>“For many, the writing is on the wall at this stage,&#34; Jordan Rochester, Head of EMEA FICC Strategy at bank holding company Mizuho, said Tuesday. &#34;It’s just a matter of how quickly the exit happens. If Starmer goes, it will make history. No sitting Labour prime minister has ever faced a leadership challenge or been removed by his own party.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“對許多人來説，形勢已經明朗，” 瑞穗銀行 EMEA 固定收益策略負責人喬丹·羅切斯特週二表示。“這只是退出發生的速度問題。如果斯塔默辭職，這將成為歷史。沒有現任工黨首相曾面臨領導挑戰或被自己黨內罷免。”</p>
</div><p>Starmer’s political crisis converged on Saturday with the Unite the Kingdom march organized by right-wing activist Tommy Robinson. The protest drew more than 60,000 people to central London, one of the largest far-right demonstrations in recent British history. It amplified pressure on a government already struggling to contain the fallout from its election collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯塔默的政治危機與右翼活動家湯米·羅賓遜組織的 “團結王國” 遊行在週六交匯。此次抗議活動吸引了超過 60,000 人聚集在倫敦市中心，成為近期英國曆史上最大的極右翼示威之一。這加大了對一個已經在努力應對選舉崩潰後果的政府的壓力。</p>
</div><h2>Starmer Pledges to Address Challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>斯塔默承諾應對挑戰</h2>
</div><p>In a speech on May 11, Starmer pledged to “face up to the big challenges” on defense, immigration, and Europe. He stated his intention to remain prime minister, though few in his own party appeared to be listening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 11 日的演講中，斯塔默承諾 “直面重大挑戰”，包括國防、移民和歐洲問題。他表示有意繼續擔任首相，儘管他所在黨內似乎很少有人在傾聽。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered,&#34; he said. &#34;The country expects us to get on with governing. That is what I am doing and what we must do as a cabinet.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“工黨有一個挑戰領導人的程序，但這一程序尚未啓動，” 他表示。“國家期待我們繼續治理。這就是我正在做的，也是我們作為內閣必須做的。”</p>
</div><p>Labour and the Conservatives, who have shaped Britain’s political landscape since the 1920s, hemorrhaged support during the elections. The economic backdrop offered little comfort. GDP grew just 0.3% month-on-month in March, slowing from 0.4% in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工黨和保守黨自 1920 年代以來一直塑造着英國的政治格局，在選舉中失去了大量支持。經濟背景也沒有提供太多安慰。3 月份的 GDP 環比增長僅為 0.3%，低於 2 月份的 0.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102811/image-16.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102811/image-16.png"/></p>
<p>Month-on-Month GDP, source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>環比 GDP，來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Labour's vote share fell by an average of 18 percentage points compared to its 2022 and 2024 results. Support for the Conservative party dropped 11 points compared to 2022 and by 10 points compared to 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 2022 年和 2024 年的結果相比，工黨的投票份額平均下降了 18 個百分點。保守黨的支持率與 2022 年相比下降了 11 個百分點，與 2024 年相比下降了 10 個百分點。</p>
</div><h2>Reform UK, Green Party Make Gains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英國改革黨和綠黨取得進展</h2>
</div><p>The results amounted to a sweeping rejection of the two-party status quo, and challengers were waiting in the wings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些結果意味着對兩黨現狀的全面拒絕，挑戰者在暗中等待機會。</p>
</div><p>Reform UK won over 1,454 council seats with a net gain of 1,372 seats. Labor recorded just 1,068 seats and a net loss of about 1,229 seats across the country. The Conservatives also suffered political blows, securing just 801 seats and suffering a net loss of 433 seats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>改革黨贏得了 1454 個地方議會席位，淨增 1372 個席位。工黨僅記錄了 1068 個席位，淨損失約 1229 個席位。保守黨也遭受政治打擊，僅獲得 801 個席位，淨損失 433 個席位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102831/image-17-1024x401.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102831/image-17-1024x401.png"/></p>
<p>Number of Councillors Won By Party – UK Local Elections 2026, Source: The Telegraph</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各黨贏得的議員數量 – 2026 年英國地方選舉，來源：每日電訊報</p>
</div><p>Reform leader Nigel Farage declared the results a “Reform-quake.” He asserted that his party “can and will win the next general election.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>改革黨領導人奈傑爾·法拉奇稱這些結果為 “改革震盪”。他聲稱他的黨 “可以並將贏得下屆大選”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's a big, big day, not just for our party, but for a complete reshaping of British politics in every way,&#34; Farage said on May 8 during a speech in the English town of Romford.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法拉奇在 5 月 8 日於英格蘭羅姆福德鎮的演講中表示：“今天是一個重要的日子，不僅對我們的黨而言，也是對英國政治全面重塑的日子。”</p>
</div><p>The Green Party made notable gains. It won 587 seats with a net gain of 393 seats, with noteworthy gains amongst London's boroughs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綠黨也取得了顯著進展。它贏得了 587 個席位，淨增 393 個席位，在倫敦的各個區取得了顯著的增幅。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Two party politics isn't dying,&#34; Green leader Zack Polanski posted following the elections. &#34;It's dead and it's buried.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“兩黨政治並沒有消亡，” 綠黨領導人扎克·波蘭斯基在選舉後表示。“它已經死去並被埋葬。”</p>
</div><h2>UK's Political Structure Coming Apart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英國的政治結構正在崩潰</h2>
</div><p>The electoral verdict did more than punish Labour at the ballot box. It ignited a full parliamentary revolt that now threatens to bring down a government less than two years into its term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>選舉結果不僅懲罰了工黨，還引發了一場全面的議會叛亂，現在威脅到一個不到兩年任期的政府。</p>
</div><p>At least 97 Labor backbenchers and over a fifth of the party’s representation in the House of Commons called for Starmer to resign or set a timetable for his departure. This surpassed the threshold of 81 required to trigger a leadership contest under Labor rules.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少 97 名工黨後座議員和超過五分之一的工黨在下議院的代表呼籲斯塔默辭職或設定離職時間表。這超過了根據工黨規則觸發領導競選所需的 81 個門檻。</p>
</div><p>Former UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner have emerged as successors to Starmer. The most likely challenger, currently polling most favorably among potential successors, is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前英國衞生大臣韋斯·斯特里廷和前副首相安吉拉·雷納已成為斯塔默的接班人。當前在潛在接班人中民調最有利的挑戰者是大曼徹斯特市市長安迪·伯納姆。</p>
</div><p>He first needs to secure a Commons seat in order to stand. Labor's National Executive Committee has reportedly approved Burnham to contest the upcoming Makerfield by-election after Josh Simons announced he would step down as MP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他首先需要確保在下議院獲得一個席位才能參選。工黨的全國執行委員會據報道已批准伯納姆參加即將舉行的梅克菲爾德補選，此前喬什·西蒙斯宣佈將辭去議員職務。</p>
</div><h2>Bond Market Punishes Starmer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>債券市場懲罰斯塔默</h2>
</div><p>Markets have delivered their own judgment. The benchmark 10-year gilt yield jumped 11 basis points Tuesday to 5.11%, just below the post-2008 highs hit in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場已經做出了自己的判斷。基準 10 年期國債收益率在週二上漲了 11 個基點，達到了 5.11%，略低於 2008 年 3 月創下的高點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102858/image-18-994x1024.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18102858/image-18-994x1024.png"/></p>
<p>UK 10-Year Bond Yields, Source: CNBC</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國 10 年期國債收益率，來源：CNBC</p>
</div><p>The 30-year yield climbed 10 basis points to 5.84%, nearing its highest level since 1998. The UK already holds the highest government borrowing costs in the G7. Its 0, 20, and 30-year debt are all above the 5% threshold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期收益率上漲 10 個基點，達到了 5.84%，接近自 1998 年以來的最高水平。英國已經在 G7 國家中擁有最高的政府借貸成本，其 0 年、20 年和 30 年期債務均超過 5% 的門檻。</p>
</div><p>Nigel Green, CEO of financial consultancy deVere Group, cautioned that the UK “doesn’t have much room for error” and that “growth is weak, borrowing is elevated, and inflation pressures linked to energy remain, meaning even a small dent in credibility forces a repricing.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融諮詢公司 deVere Group 的首席執行官 Nigel Green 警告稱，英國 “沒有太多犯錯的空間”，並且 “增長疲軟，借貸水平高，能源相關的通脹壓力依然存在，這意味着即使是信譽的微小損害也會導致重新定價。”</p>
</div><p>This comes amid rising inflationary concerns due to oil shocks from U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran. It has signaled a shift in expectations from the Bank of England to hike rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這發生在由於美國與以色列對伊朗的軍事行動引發的油價衝擊而導致的通脹擔憂上升之際。這表明英國央行加息預期的轉變。</p>
</div><p>“The bond market is reacting not only to Starmer’s potential departure, but also to who his successor could be, and to the prospect of a drawn-out leadership battle that leads to more fiscal promises that the UK cannot afford,” Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at broker XTB, stated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“債券市場不僅對 Starmer 可能的離職做出反應，還對他的繼任者可能是誰，以及可能導致更多英國無法承受的財政承諾的漫長領導權鬥爭的前景做出反應，” 經紀公司 XTB 的研究總監 Kathleen Brooks 表示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18101819/image-15-1024x676.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/18101819/image-15-1024x676.png"/></p>
<p>30-year Gilt Yield Chart, Source: FT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期國債收益率圖表，來源：FT</p>
</div><h2>Markets Fear a Leftward Shift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場擔心向左轉變</h2>
</div><p>Investors are concerned that a more left-leaning successor could increase public borrowing, putting further pressure on Britain’s already fragile finances. Analysts at JPMorgan expect Britain’s banking surcharge to rise to 5% from 3% with a leftward policy shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者擔心，傾向左翼的繼任者可能會增加公共借貸，進一步加大對英國脆弱財政的壓力。摩根大通的分析師預計，隨着政策向左轉變，英國的銀行附加税將從 3% 上升至 5%。</p>
</div><p>Political analysts have bet that Starmer's time as prime minister is hanging by a thread. Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group has raised the probability of Starmer being ousted this year to 80%, up from 65%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政治分析師們認為，Starmer 作為首相的時間岌岌可危。政治風險諮詢公司 Eurasia Group 將 Starmer 在今年被罷免的概率提高到了 80%，而之前為 65%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The most likely scenario is that MPs will force a leadership election by September (a 35% probability),&#34; Eurasia Group analyst Mujtaba Rahman said. &#34;There is a 25% chance of an orderly transition in which Starmer agrees to stand down and a 20% probability of an immediate leadership election.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“最可能的情況是，議員們將在 9 月之前迫使進行領導選舉（概率為 35%），” Eurasia Group 分析師 Mujtaba Rahman 表示。“有 25% 的機會進行有序過渡，Starmer 同意辭職，還有 20% 的概率立即進行領導選舉。”</p>
</div><p>With Robinson's march, calls for Starmer's resignation, and soaring gilt yields, Britain faces its gravest political and financial test in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 Robinson 的遊行、對 Starmer 辭職的呼聲以及國債收益率飆升，英國面臨着多年來最嚴重的政治和金融考驗。</p>
</div><p><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. European Capital Insights is not responsible for any financial decisions made based on the contents of this article. Readers may use this article for information and educational purposes only.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>免責聲明：</strong> 本文中表達的任何觀點均不應被視為投資建議，僅代表作者個人觀點。European Capital Insights 對基於本文內容做出的任何財務決策不承擔責任。讀者可以將本文用於信息和教育目的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性的編輯。</em></strong></p>
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斯塔默岌岌可危，債券市場動盪