<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>“我很難想象市場會對此置之不理，” Evercore 創始人 Roger Altman 表示。</p>
<p>Evercore 創始人 Roger Altman 在週一接受了 CNBC 的採訪。</p>
<p>“我認為目前的大問題是……我們是否正處於油市的轉折點，以及在接下來的兩週內，油價是否會大幅上漲。”</p>
<p>這是 Evercore 的創始人兼高級主席 Roger Altman 的警告，他表示油價可能很快會給迄今為止表現出驚人韌性的股市帶來更多問題。</p>
<p>Altman 在週一的 CNBC 採訪中表示，原油價格的急劇上漲可能會通過引發 “本十年第二次大通脹衝擊（繼 COVID 之後）” 來破壞市場，尤其是在油價攀升至每桶 150 美元或更高的情況下。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，Altman 表示：“我很難想象市場會對此置之不理，” 並補充道：“但也許他們會。”</p>
<p>在唐納德·特朗普總統週日發文稱 “時間在流逝” 後，油價在週一上漲。他在 Truth Social 上表示，伊朗 “最好快點行動，否則他們將不復存在。” 根據 FactSet 的數據，布倫特原油（BRN00）週一上漲 1.4%，超過每桶 110 美元，而西德克薩斯中質原油（CL.1）上漲 1.3%，突破每桶 106 美元。</p>
<p>到目前為止，股市對油價上漲表現得相對從容。標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）和納斯達克綜合指數（COMP）在上週仍處於歷史高位，投資者押注企業盈利、人工智能支出和依然強勁的經濟能夠繼續支撐市場。但持續的油價衝擊可能會考驗這種觀點。</p>
<p>儘管投資者在很大程度上將最新的能源驅動的通脹壓力視為暫時，但 Evercore 的 Altman 表示，曾經幫助吸收失去的石油供應衝擊的緩衝措施可能正在減弱。</p>
<p>他指出，每天有 1200 萬到 1400 萬桶的石油被排除在市場之外，而全球日均消費量約為 1.02 億桶。到目前為止，影響已被儲存的石油庫存、已經在海上的油輪、戰略石油儲備的釋放以及中國的大量庫存所緩解。換句話説，市場有備用供應可供調配。</p>
<p>但他表示，這些緩衝措施已經減少，可能很快失去緩衝市場免受供應短缺全面影響的能力。</p>
<p>這將使 Altman 所描述的美國經濟的強勁背景變得複雜。Altman 表示，在面臨油價上漲的潛在衝擊之前，市場和經濟的條件看起來非常強勁，指出企業利潤、消費者韌性和商業投資，其中大部分投資集中在人工智能上，但並不限於此。</p>
<p>問題在於，油價現在可能會壓倒這些積極因素，Altman 表示。</p>
<p>根據 Altman 的説法，原油已成為市場的 “關鍵”。如果美國與伊朗達成某種協議，油價在年底前回落至每桶 70 至 80 美元，經濟和市場將 “處於良好狀態”。</p>
<p>“但目前看起來正好相反，這很危險，” Altman 補充道。</p>
<p>-Frances Yue</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>05-18-26 1210ET</p>

西方石油

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>Evercore 創始人羅傑·阿爾特曼警告稱，石油市場可能正處於一個臨界點，這可能導致價格大幅上漲，從而使股市不穩定。他強調，原油價格上漲至每桶 150 美元可能會引發 COVID 後的第二次通脹衝擊。儘管股票市場保持韌性，但對石油供應短缺的緩衝減少可能會使經濟前景複雜化，而經濟前景本來因企業利潤和消費者韌性而顯得強勁</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>'I would have a hard time seeing markets just shrugging that off', says Evercore founder Roger Altman</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我很難想象市場會對此置之不理，” Evercore 創始人 Roger Altman 表示。</p>
</div><p>Evercore founder Roger Altman was interviewed on CNBC on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 創始人 Roger Altman 在週一接受了 CNBC 的採訪。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think the big question of the moment ... is whether we're now at a tipping point in terms of the oil market and whether we're about to see over the next two weeks, really substantially higher oil prices.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我認為目前的大問題是……我們是否正處於油市的轉折點，以及在接下來的兩週內，油價是否會大幅上漲。”</p>
</div><p>That was Roger Altman, founder and senior chairman of Wall Street investment bank Evercore, warning that oil prices could soon create more problems for a stock market that has proved remarkably resilient so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是 Evercore 的創始人兼高級主席 Roger Altman 的警告，他表示油價可能很快會給迄今為止表現出驚人韌性的股市帶來更多問題。</p>
</div><p>Altman said in a CNBC interview on Monday that a sharp rise in crude could destabilize markets by triggering &#34;the second big inflation shock of this decade after COVID,&#34; especially if oil prices climb toward $150 a barrel or higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Altman 在週一的 CNBC 採訪中表示，原油價格的急劇上漲可能會通過引發 “本十年第二次大通脹衝擊（繼 COVID 之後）” 來破壞市場，尤其是在油價攀升至每桶 150 美元或更高的情況下。</p>
</div><p>In that case, &#34;I would have a hard time seeing markets just shrugging that off,&#34; Altman said, adding: &#34;But maybe they will.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，Altman 表示：“我很難想象市場會對此置之不理，” 並補充道：“但也許他們會。”</p>
</div><p>Oil prices pushed higher on Monday after President Donald Trump wrote on Sunday that the &#34;Clock is Ticking&#34; for Iran. Iran had &#34;better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them,&#34; he said on Truth Social then. Brent crude oil (BRN00) rose 1.4% to above $110 a barrel on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) went up 1.3% passing $106 a barrel, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在唐納德·特朗普總統週日發文稱 “時間在流逝” 後，油價在週一上漲。他在 Truth Social 上表示，伊朗 “最好快點行動，否則他們將不復存在。” 根據 FactSet 的數據，布倫特原油（BRN00）週一上漲 1.4%，超過每桶 110 美元，而西德克薩斯中質原油（CL.1）上漲 1.3%，突破每桶 106 美元。</p>
</div><p>Stocks have taken higher oil prices in stride so far. With the S&amp;P 500 SPX and Nasdaq composite COMP trading in record territory as recently as last week, investors are betting that corporate earnings, AI spending and a still-solid economy can continue to support the market. But a sustained oil-price shock could test that view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，股市對油價上漲表現得相對從容。標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）和納斯達克綜合指數（COMP）在上週仍處於歷史高位，投資者押注企業盈利、人工智能支出和依然強勁的經濟能夠繼續支撐市場。但持續的油價衝擊可能會考驗這種觀點。</p>
</div><p>While investors have largely treated the latest energy-driven inflation pressures as temporary, the buffers that had helped absorb the shock from lost oil supply may be fading, Evercore's Altman said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管投資者在很大程度上將最新的能源驅動的通脹壓力視為暫時，但 Evercore 的 Altman 表示，曾經幫助吸收失去的石油供應衝擊的緩衝措施可能正在減弱。</p>
</div><p>He noted that 12 million to 14 million barrels a day have been taken out of the oil market, compared with the average daily global consumption of about 102 million barrels. So far, the impact has been softened by stored oil inventories, tankers already at sea, releases from strategic petroleum reserves and large inventories in China. In other words, the market has had backup supplies to draw on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，每天有 1200 萬到 1400 萬桶的石油被排除在市場之外，而全球日均消費量約為 1.02 億桶。到目前為止，影響已被儲存的石油庫存、已經在海上的油輪、戰略石油儲備的釋放以及中國的大量庫存所緩解。換句話説，市場有備用供應可供調配。</p>
</div><p>But those buffers have been reduced, he said, and may soon lose their ability to cushion the market from the full impact of the supply shortfall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他表示，這些緩衝措施已經減少，可能很快失去緩衝市場免受供應短缺全面影響的能力。</p>
</div><p>It would complicate what Altman described as an otherwise strong backdrop for the U.S. economy. Altman said the conditions for markets and the economy looked very strong before the potential hit from higher oil prices, pointing to corporate profits, consumer resilience, and business investment, with much of that investment centered on AI, but not limited to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將使 Altman 所描述的美國經濟的強勁背景變得複雜。Altman 表示，在面臨油價上漲的潛在衝擊之前，市場和經濟的條件看起來非常強勁，指出企業利潤、消費者韌性和商業投資，其中大部分投資集中在人工智能上，但並不限於此。</p>
</div><p>The problem is that oil may now overwhelm those positives, Altman said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於，油價現在可能會壓倒這些積極因素，Altman 表示。</p>
</div><p>Crude has become the &#34;linchpin&#34; for markets, according to Altman. If the U.S. were to reach some accommodation with Iran and oil prices fell back toward $70 to $80 a barrel by the end of the year, the economy and markets would be &#34;in good shape,&#34; he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Altman 的説法，原油已成為市場的 “關鍵”。如果美國與伊朗達成某種協議，油價在年底前回落至每桶 70 至 80 美元，經濟和市場將 “處於良好狀態”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But at the moment it looks like the opposite is going to happen, and that's risky,&#34; Altman added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但目前看起來正好相反，這很危險，” Altman 補充道。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>05-18-26 1210ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-18-26 1210ET</p>
</div>

The oil market is reaching a 'tipping point' that could create problems for stocks, according to this Wall Street legend

Dow Jones

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

能源業 ETF - SPDR

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

Evercore

輝盛研究系統

標普 500 指數

納斯達克綜合指數

根據這位華爾街傳奇人物的説法，石油市場正在接近一個可能會給股票市場帶來問題的'臨界點'