<h2><strong>加元技術預測：USD/CAD 每週交易水平</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>USD/CAD 正在嘗試保持在一個關鍵突破區間之上，此前從四月低點反彈。</li>
<li>價格仍然被困在一個主要的支點附近，動能難以確認上漲。</li>
<li>如果價格再次跌破之前的阻力，將威脅到虛假突破的情景，並可能重新走低。</li>
<li>持續的上漲將支持更廣泛的恢復，朝向主要阻力水平。</li>
<li>阻力 1.3788-1.3808（關鍵），~1.39，1.3944 – 支持 1.3725/33，1.3617（關鍵），1.3563</li>
</ul>
<p>USD/CAD 正在嘗試在一個主要支點區間之上穩定，此前從多周低點反彈，價格走勢現在正在測試突破是否能在每週收盤時保持。儘管這一走勢改善了短期技術前景，但動能仍然不夠令人信服，增加了虛假突破的風險。現在的焦點轉向買家是否能夠在支撐位之上維持控制，或者更廣泛的下行趨勢是否會重新顯現。USD/CAD 每週技術圖表上的戰鬥線已劃定。</p>
<p>查看我最新的 <strong>每週策略網絡研討會</strong>，深入分析這個加元設置及更多內容。<strong>每週一上午 8:30（東部時間）直播</strong>。</p>
<h3><strong>加元價格圖表 – USD/CAD 每週</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="634" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png"/></p>
<p><em>圖表由</em> <em>Michael Boutros，資深技術策略師；</em> <em>USD/CAD 在 TradingView 上</em></p>
<p><strong>技術展望：</strong> 在上個月的 <strong>加元技術預測</strong> 中，我們指出 USD/CAD 正在 “在經歷了三週的下跌後測試主要支撐，面臨價格反轉的風險。從交易的角度來看，如果價格在這一波段上升，損失需要限制在本週的低點，收盤價需高於 1.3733，以暗示更顯著的中期低點已形成。” USD/CAD 在那一週跌入年度低點收盤，隨後在五月開盤時反彈，價格在上週標記了一個關鍵支點區間之上的每週收盤。是否形成了更顯著的低點？</p>
<p>關注的支點區間是 <strong>1.3725/33</strong>- 這是一個由年度開盤價、二月份高點和 2025 年低周收盤（LWC）定義的區域。儘管上週收盤高於該區間確實為進一步上漲打開了大門，但每週動能仍低於 50，且多頭尚未提供令人信服的推動力。儘管如此，每週開盤區間正在該標記上方形成，未來幾天的突破可能會提供指導。</p>
<p>初步的每週阻力關注 52 周移動平均線和三月下跌的 61.8% 回撤位 <strong>1.3788-1.3808</strong>。若突破/每週收盤高於該閾值，將需要推動下一輪主要上漲，目標指向 2025 年趨勢線（目前約在 <strong>1.39</strong> 附近），並受到年度高周收盤（HWC）<strong>1.3944</strong> 和 2022 年波動高點 <strong>1.3978</strong> 的支持。這兩個水平可能會出現頂部疲軟/價格反轉，若達到請關注更大的反應。</p>
<p>若回落至年度開盤價以下，將威脅到虛假突破的情景，每週支撐目標保持不變，位於年度低周收盤（LWC）<strong>1.3617</strong> 和 2026 年低收盤 <strong>1.3563</strong>。若跌破該閾值，將威脅到年度低點的重新測試，後續支撐見於 2024 年八月低收盤 <strong>1.3494</strong> 和 <strong>1.3360/66</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p><strong>底線：</strong> USD/CAD 正在嘗試驗證突破關鍵支點區間，焦點在於每週收盤是否在 1.3425/33 之上。從交易的角度來看，若價格在這一波段上升，損失需限制在 1.3617，最終收盤高於 1.3808 將是推動下一輪主要上漲所需。</p>
<p>本週經濟日曆相對清淡，加拿大 CPI 明天將成為焦點。本週伊朗戰爭談判將再次成為中心焦點。霍爾木茲海峽的長期封鎖繼續對能源行業施加壓力，解決方案進展甚微。市場開始定價長期衝突，聯邦基金期貨現在將 12 月加息的概率定為 50/50。這一利率預期的變化有利於美元，而持續的高能源價格可能會迫使中央銀行在今年更積極地應對上升的通脹。請關注戰爭頭條，並觀察每週收盤以獲取指導。查看我最新的 <strong>加元短期展望</strong>，以更詳細地瞭解近期 USD/CAD 技術交易水平。</p>
<h3><strong>美國/加拿大經濟數據發佈</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="727" height="662" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png"/></p>
<p><strong>經濟日曆</strong> <strong>-</strong> 最新經濟動態和即將到來的事件風險。</p>
<h3><strong>活躍的每週技術圖表</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>歐元 (EUR/USD)</li>
<li>美元指數 (DXY)</li>
<li>黃金 (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>日元 (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>澳元 (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>瑞士法郎 (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>比特幣 (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>英鎊 (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>標普 500，納斯達克，道瓊斯</li>
</ul>
<p>--- 由 Michael Boutros 撰寫，資深技術策略師</p>
<p>在 X 上關注 Michael <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>美元/加元正在測試一個關鍵的突破區間，此前從四月的低點反彈，價格走勢顯示出潛在的虛假突破風險。動能依然疲弱，令人擔憂能否在支撐位上方維持漲幅。需要收盤價高於 1.3808 才能實現顯著上漲，而跌破 1.3617 可能導致重新測試年度低點。經濟日曆較為清淡，加拿大 CPI 數據和持續的地緣政治緊張局勢影響市場情緒</p>

<h2><strong>Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>加元技術預測：USD/CAD 每週交易水平</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li>USD/CAD is attempting to hold above a key breakout zone after rebounding from April low.</li>
<li>Price remains trapped near a major pivot as momentum struggles to confirm the advance.</li>
<li>A move back below former resistance would threaten a false-break scenario and renewed downside.</li>
<li>A sustained push higher would support a broader recovery toward major resistance levels.</li>
<li>Resistance 1.3788-1.3808 (key), ~1.39, 1.3944 – Support 1.3725/33, 1.3617 (key), 1.3563</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>USD/CAD 正在嘗試保持在一個關鍵突破區間之上，此前從四月低點反彈。</li>
<li>價格仍然被困在一個主要的支點附近，動能難以確認上漲。</li>
<li>如果價格再次跌破之前的阻力，將威脅到虛假突破的情景，並可能重新走低。</li>
<li>持續的上漲將支持更廣泛的恢復，朝向主要阻力水平。</li>
<li>阻力 1.3788-1.3808（關鍵），~1.39，1.3944 – 支持 1.3725/33，1.3617（關鍵），1.3563</li>
</ul>
</div><p>USD/CAD is attempting to stabilize above a major pivot zone after rebounding from multi-week lows, with price action now testing whether the breakout can hold into the weekly close. While the move has improved the near-term technical outlook, momentum remains unconvincing, raising the risk of a false break scenario. The focus now shifts to whether buyers can sustain control above support or if the broader downtrend begins to reassert itself. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>USD/CAD 正在嘗試在一個主要支點區間之上穩定，此前從多周低點反彈，價格走勢現在正在測試突破是否能在每週收盤時保持。儘管這一走勢改善了短期技術前景，但動能仍然不夠令人信服，增加了虛假突破的風險。現在的焦點轉向買家是否能夠在支撐位之上維持控制，或者更廣泛的下行趨勢是否會重新顯現。USD/CAD 每週技術圖表上的戰鬥線已劃定。</p>
</div><p>Review my latest <strong>Weekly Strategy Webinar</strong> for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. <strong>Join live</strong> on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我最新的 <strong>每週策略網絡研討會</strong>，深入分析這個加元設置及更多內容。<strong>每週一上午 8:30（東部時間）直播</strong>。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>加元價格圖表 – USD/CAD 每週</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png"/></p>
<p><em>Chart Prepared by</em> <em>Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist;</em> <em>USD/CAD on TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖表由</em> <em>Michael Boutros，資深技術策略師；</em> <em>USD/CAD 在 TradingView 上</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Technical Outlook:</strong> In last month’s <strong>Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast</strong> we noted that USD/CAD was, “testing major support here on the back of a three-week selloff from the yearly high- risk for price inflection ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on <em>this</em> stretch with a close above 1.3733 needed to suggest a more significant medium-term low is in place.” USD/CAD dropped into the yearly low-close that week before rebounding into the May open with price marking a weekly close above a key pivot zone last week. Is a more significant low in place?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>技術展望：</strong> 在上個月的 <strong>加元技術預測</strong> 中，我們指出 USD/CAD 正在 “在經歷了三週的下跌後測試主要支撐，面臨價格反轉的風險。從交易的角度來看，如果價格在這一波段上升，損失需要限制在本週的低點，收盤價需高於 1.3733，以暗示更顯著的中期低點已形成。” USD/CAD 在那一週跌入年度低點收盤，隨後在五月開盤時反彈，價格在上週標記了一個關鍵支點區間之上的每週收盤。是否形成了更顯著的低點？</p>
</div><p>The pivot zone in focus is <strong>1.3725/33</strong>- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the February high, and the 2025 low-week close (LWC). While a close above this zone last week dose open the door to further gains, weekly momentum remains sub-fifty and the bulls have not yet offered a convincing push. That said, the weekly opening-range is taking shape just above this mark and a breakout in the days ahead may offer guidance here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關注的支點區間是 <strong>1.3725/33</strong>- 這是一個由年度開盤價、二月份高點和 2025 年低周收盤（LWC）定義的區域。儘管上週收盤高於該區間確實為進一步上漲打開了大門，但每週動能仍低於 50，且多頭尚未提供令人信服的推動力。儘管如此，每週開盤區間正在該標記上方形成，未來幾天的突破可能會提供指導。</p>
</div><p>Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline at <strong>1.3788-1.3808</strong>. A topside breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the 2025 trendline (currently near ~ <strong>1.39</strong>) backed by the yearly high-week close (HWC) at <strong>1.3944</strong> and the 2022 swing high at <strong>1.3978</strong>. Both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步的每週阻力關注 52 周移動平均線和三月下跌的 61.8% 回撤位 <strong>1.3788-1.3808</strong>。若突破/每週收盤高於該閾值，將需要推動下一輪主要上漲，目標指向 2025 年趨勢線（目前約在 <strong>1.39</strong> 附近），並受到年度高周收盤（HWC）<strong>1.3944</strong> 和 2022 年波動高點 <strong>1.3978</strong> 的支持。這兩個水平可能會出現頂部疲軟/價格反轉，若達到請關注更大的反應。</p>
</div><p>A pivot back below the yearly open would threaten a false break scenario with weekly support targets unchanged at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at <strong>1.3617</strong> and the 2026 low close at <strong>1.3563</strong>. Losses below this threshold would threaten a retest of the yearly lows with subsequent support seen at the 2024 August low close at <strong>1.3494</strong> and <strong>1.3360/66</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>若回落至年度開盤價以下，將威脅到虛假突破的情景，每週支撐目標保持不變，位於年度低周收盤（LWC）<strong>1.3617</strong> 和 2026 年低收盤 <strong>1.3563</strong>。若跌破該閾值，將威脅到年度低點的重新測試，後續支撐見於 2024 年八月低收盤 <strong>1.3494</strong> 和 <strong>1.3360/66</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p><strong>Bottom line:</strong> USD/CAD is attempting to validate a break above a key pivot zone, and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 1.3425/33. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3617 IF price is heading higher on <em>this</em> stretch with a close above 1.3808 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>底線：</strong> USD/CAD 正在嘗試驗證突破關鍵支點區間，焦點在於每週收盤是否在 1.3425/33 之上。從交易的角度來看，若價格在這一波段上升，損失需限制在 1.3617，最終收盤高於 1.3808 將是推動下一輪主要上漲所需。</p>
</div><p>The economic calendar is rather light this week with Canada CPI tomorrow headlining the docket. The Iranian war negotiations will be central focus again this week. The prolonged blockade of the Hormuz Strait has continued to squeeze the energy sector with little progress made on a resolution. Markets are beginning to price in a protracted conflict with Fed Fund Futures now putting a December rate hike at 50/50. This shift in interest rate expectations has favored the US Dollar and persistent high energy prices may pressure the central bank to address rising inflation this year more aggressively. Keep an eye on the war headlines and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest <strong>Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook</strong> for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週經濟日曆相對清淡，加拿大 CPI 明天將成為焦點。本週伊朗戰爭談判將再次成為中心焦點。霍爾木茲海峽的長期封鎖繼續對能源行業施加壓力，解決方案進展甚微。市場開始定價長期衝突，聯邦基金期貨現在將 12 月加息的概率定為 50/50。這一利率預期的變化有利於美元，而持續的高能源價格可能會迫使中央銀行在今年更積極地應對上升的通脹。請關注戰爭頭條，並觀察每週收盤以獲取指導。查看我最新的 <strong>加元短期展望</strong>，以更詳細地瞭解近期 USD/CAD 技術交易水平。</p>
</div><h3><strong>US / Canada Economic Data Release</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>美國/加拿大經濟數據發佈</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economic Calendar</strong> <strong>-</strong> latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>經濟日曆</strong> <strong>-</strong> 最新經濟動態和即將到來的事件風險。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Active Weekly Technical Charts</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>活躍的每週技術圖表</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>Euro (EUR/USD)</li>
<li>US Dollar Index (DXY)</li>
<li>Gold (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>Bitcoin (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>British Pound (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Dow</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐元 (EUR/USD)</li>
<li>美元指數 (DXY)</li>
<li>黃金 (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>日元 (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>澳元 (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>瑞士法郎 (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>比特幣 (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>英鎊 (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>標普 500，納斯達克，道瓊斯</li>
</ul>
</div><p>--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>--- 由 Michael Boutros 撰寫，資深技術策略師</p>
</div><p>Follow Michael on X <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 X 上關注 Michael <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>
</div>

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tests Breakout—False Break Risk Looms

加元預測：美元/加元正在測試突破——虛假突破的風險正在逼近