<p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜警告稱，如果債券市場波動持續，股票市場將面臨自三月底以來的首次重大回調，儘管該行將其 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點。</p>
<p>在你繼續之前，特朗普對收益率上升和股票下跌的反應，正如他一貫所做的那樣，發表了一個 TACO：</p>
<ul>
<li>特朗普：應沙特和阿聯酋的請求，停止對伊朗的計劃攻擊</li>
<li>特朗普表示，在海灣國家確保攻擊暫停後，達成伊朗協議的機會很大</li>
</ul>
<p>回到摩根士丹利。<strong>總結：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如果債券市場波動加劇，長期收益率繼續上升，股票面臨顯著回調風險</li>
<li>標普 500 在上週末從歷史高位回落，期貨指向週一進一步下跌</li>
<li>與伊朗衝突相關的持續高企的能源價格引發的通脹擔憂，推動國債收益率在整個期限上升，30 年期收益率達到近三年來的最高水平</li>
<li>日本收益率也飆升至數十年來的最高水平</li>
<li>摩根士丹利上週將其 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點，稱這是 20 多年來除重大沖擊復甦外最強勁的盈利增長</li>
<li>威爾遜指出，投資者低估了盈利增長在 AI 公司之外的廣泛延伸，但注意到對這種擴展的佈局仍然有限</li>
<li>解決伊朗衝突被視為收益率回落和盈利擴展交易加速的關鍵前提</li>
</ul>
<p>摩根士丹利的策略師警告稱，全球債券拋售對股票市場構成嚴重威脅，受 AI 驅動的股票反彈面臨自市場在三月底觸底以來的首次重大回調風險。</p>
<p>邁克·威爾遜領導的團隊在一份報告中表示，如果債券市場波動加劇，長期利率繼續上升，股票價格應預期出現顯著回調。標普 500 在上週末從歷史高位回落，股票指數期貨指向新一週開始時進一步下跌，使得這一警告具有直接的相關性。</p>
<p>催化劑是熟悉的。由於與伊朗衝突相關的持續高企的能源價格引發的通脹擔憂，推動國債收益率在整個期限上升。30 年期收益率上升至近三年來的最高水平，而日本收益率飆升至數十年來未見的水平，突顯出債券壓力並非純粹的美國現象。威爾遜將國債拋售直接與油價飆升和強勁經濟聯繫在一起，同時指出美聯儲在新主席凱文·沃什領導下日益鷹派的基調正在加劇這一趨勢。他認為，伊朗衝突的持久解決是債券市場在利率能夠顯著回落之前所需的。</p>
<p>儘管短期內謹慎，摩根士丹利仍然維持對股票的長期看漲立場。該行上週將其 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點，基於其所描述的 20 多年來最強勁的盈利增長，排除重大經濟衝擊後的復甦。</p>
<p>威爾遜指出，盈利復甦的廣泛性是市場最不具備佈局的交易。他認為，盈利增長已經超出了 AI 受益者的核心羣體，但投資者對這種擴展的佈局意願仍然有限。在他看來，關鍵的觸發因素是油價和收益率從近期高位回落，這些發展在很大程度上取決於結束伊朗衝突的進展。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>30 年期國債收益率達到近三年來的最高水平是股票市場需要密切關注的數字，因為它代表了在 AI 驅動的成長股上，拉伸估值的折現率壓力點。威爾遜的框架將責任明確歸於伊朗衝突的解決，以使利率回落，這意味着地緣政治新聞流現在直接影響股票佈局決策。盈利復甦的廣泛性是長期看漲的案例，但它仍然在很大程度上未被定價，使市場在這一理論有機會發揮之前，面臨利率驅動的回調風險。</p>

標普 500 指數

3 倍做空標普 500 ETF - ProShares

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 指數股票型基金

標普 500 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

<p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜警告稱，如果債券市場的波動性持續，股票可能面臨重大調整，儘管他將 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點。由於與伊朗衝突相關的通脹擔憂，標普 500 最近從歷史高點回落，受到國債收益率上升的影響。解決這一衝突被視為穩定收益率和支持更廣泛盈利增長的關鍵，而這一點仍未得到投資者的充分重視</p>

<p>Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson warns equities face their first meaningful correction since late March if bond volatility persists, even as the bank raises its 12-month S&amp;P 500 target to 8,300.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜警告稱，如果債券市場波動持續，股票市場將面臨自三月底以來的首次重大回調，儘管該行將其 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點。</p>
</div><p>Before you go on, Trump reacted to rising yields and falling stocks, as he reliably does, with a TACO:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你繼續之前，特朗普對收益率上升和股票下跌的反應，正如他一貫所做的那樣，發表了一個 TACO：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Trump: Stops the planned attack on Iran on request from Saudi's and UAE</li>
<li>Trump says good chance of Iran deal after Gulf states secure attack pause</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>特朗普：應沙特和阿聯酋的請求，停止對伊朗的計劃攻擊</li>
<li>特朗普表示，在海灣國家確保攻擊暫停後，達成伊朗協議的機會很大</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Back to Morgan Stanley. <strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到摩根士丹利。<strong>總結：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Equities face a significant pullback risk if bond market volatility intensifies and long-term yields continue to rise</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 pulled back from an all-time high late last week, with futures pointing to further losses on Monday</li>
<li>Inflation fears tied to prolonged elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict have pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the 30-year at its highest in nearly three years</li>
<li>Japanese yields also surged to multi-decade highs</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month S&amp;P 500 target to 8,300 last week, citing the strongest earnings growth in more than two decades outside of major shock recoveries</li>
<li>Wilson flagged that investors have underestimated how broadly profit growth has extended beyond AI names, but noted positioning for that broadening remains limited</li>
<li>A resolution to the Iran conflict is seen as the key prerequisite for yields to retreat and the broadening earnings trade to accelerate</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果債券市場波動加劇，長期收益率繼續上升，股票面臨顯著回調風險</li>
<li>標普 500 在上週末從歷史高位回落，期貨指向週一進一步下跌</li>
<li>與伊朗衝突相關的持續高企的能源價格引發的通脹擔憂，推動國債收益率在整個期限上升，30 年期收益率達到近三年來的最高水平</li>
<li>日本收益率也飆升至數十年來的最高水平</li>
<li>摩根士丹利上週將其 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點，稱這是 20 多年來除重大沖擊復甦外最強勁的盈利增長</li>
<li>威爾遜指出，投資者低估了盈利增長在 AI 公司之外的廣泛延伸，但注意到對這種擴展的佈局仍然有限</li>
<li>解決伊朗衝突被視為收益率回落和盈利擴展交易加速的關鍵前提</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley strategists are warning that the global bond selloff poses a serious threat to equity markets, with the AI-driven stock rally at risk of its first meaningful correction since markets bottomed at the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的策略師警告稱，全球債券拋售對股票市場構成嚴重威脅，受 AI 驅動的股票反彈面臨自市場在三月底觸底以來的首次重大回調風險。</p>
</div><p>The team led by Mike Wilson said in a note that if bond market volatility intensifies and long-term interest rates continue to climb, a significant pullback in equity prices should be expected. The S&amp;P 500 retreated from a record high late last week, and equity index futures pointed to further losses at the start of the new week, giving the warning immediate relevance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邁克·威爾遜領導的團隊在一份報告中表示，如果債券市場波動加劇，長期利率繼續上升，股票價格應預期出現顯著回調。標普 500 在上週末從歷史高位回落，股票指數期貨指向新一週開始時進一步下跌，使得這一警告具有直接的相關性。</p>
</div><p>The catalyst is familiar. Inflation fears driven by persistently elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have pushed Treasury yields higher across the maturity spectrum. The 30-year yield rose to its highest level in nearly three years, while Japanese yields surged to levels not seen in several decades, underscoring that the bond pressure is not a purely American phenomenon. Wilson tied the Treasury selloff directly to surging oil prices and a strong economy, while noting that the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish tone under new chair Kevin Warsh is amplifying the move. A lasting resolution to the Iran conflict, he argued, is what bond markets need before rates can meaningfully retreat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>催化劑是熟悉的。由於與伊朗衝突相關的持續高企的能源價格引發的通脹擔憂，推動國債收益率在整個期限上升。30 年期收益率上升至近三年來的最高水平，而日本收益率飆升至數十年來未見的水平，突顯出債券壓力並非純粹的美國現象。威爾遜將國債拋售直接與油價飆升和強勁經濟聯繫在一起，同時指出美聯儲在新主席凱文·沃什領導下日益鷹派的基調正在加劇這一趨勢。他認為，伊朗衝突的持久解決是債券市場在利率能夠顯著回落之前所需的。</p>
</div><p>Despite the near-term caution, Morgan Stanley maintained its longer-term bullish stance on equities. The bank raised its 12-month S&amp;P 500 target to 8,300 last week, underpinned by what it described as the strongest earnings growth in more than two decades, excluding recoveries from major economic shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管短期內謹慎，摩根士丹利仍然維持對股票的長期看漲立場。該行上週將其 12 個月的標普 500 目標上調至 8300 點，基於其所描述的 20 多年來最強勁的盈利增長，排除重大經濟衝擊後的復甦。</p>
</div><p>Wilson identified a broadening of that earnings recovery as the trade that markets are most poorly positioned for. Profit growth has extended well beyond the core group of AI beneficiaries, he argued, but investor appetite to position for that broadening remains limited. The key triggers to watch, in his view, are oil prices and yields pulling back from recent highs, developments that hinge heavily on progress toward ending the Iran conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威爾遜指出，盈利復甦的廣泛性是市場最不具備佈局的交易。他認為，盈利增長已經超出了 AI 受益者的核心羣體，但投資者對這種擴展的佈局意願仍然有限。在他看來，關鍵的觸發因素是油價和收益率從近期高位回落，這些發展在很大程度上取決於結束伊朗衝突的進展。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level in nearly three years is the number that equity markets need to watch most closely, as it represents the discount rate pressure point at which stretched valuations on AI-driven growth stocks become hardest to defend. Wilson's framework puts the onus squarely on an Iran conflict resolution to bring rates back down, meaning geopolitical newsflow is now a direct input into equity positioning decisions. A broadening earnings recovery is the longer-term bullish case, but it remains largely unpriced, leaving the market vulnerable to a rates-driven unwind before that thesis gets the chance to play out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期國債收益率達到近三年來的最高水平是股票市場需要密切關注的數字，因為它代表了在 AI 驅動的成長股上，拉伸估值的折現率壓力點。威爾遜的框架將責任明確歸於伊朗衝突的解決，以使利率回落，這意味着地緣政治新聞流現在直接影響股票佈局決策。盈利復甦的廣泛性是長期看漲的案例，但它仍然在很大程度上未被定價，使市場在這一理論有機會發揮之前，面臨利率驅動的回調風險。</p>
</div>

Morgan Stanley warns bond rout could trigger equity correction, still sees S&P500 @ 8300

- 摩根士丹利警告稱，如果債市波動加劇，股市將面臨重大回調風險。  
- 標普 500 指數在上週末從歷史高位回落，週一期貨預示進一步下跌。  
- 解決伊朗衝突被視為利率回落的關鍵前提。

Investinglive

摩根士丹利

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

摩根士丹利警告稱，債券市場的拋售可能會導致股市出現調整，但仍然預計標普 500 指數將達到 8300 點