<ul>
<li>英鎊/美元呈現看漲關鍵反轉，隨着國債拋售減緩</li>
<li>市場預計今年至少兩次英央行加息</li>
<li>英國工資和通脹數據備受關注</li>
<li>英鎊/澳元在假突破下測試關鍵下行趨勢</li>
</ul>
<h2>英鎊多頭的完美風暴</h2>
<p>週一為英鎊多頭提供了近乎完美的發展組合，在上週財政和政治動盪重創英鎊並使長期國債收益率飆升至 1990 年代以來的最高水平後，觸發了英國資產的急劇反轉。工黨領導候選人安迪·伯納姆關於財政紀律的平靜言論、國際貨幣基金組織的增長上調、英格蘭銀行決策者梅根·格林的鷹派言論以及特朗普的又一次發言共同推動了英鎊/美元的急劇反轉，同時長期國債收益率也出現了適度回撤。</p>
<p>儘管海灣地區的衝突仍然是英鎊對美元的主要宏觀驅動因素，但英鎊再次開始受到特有的英國因素的影響。</p>
<h2>英央行再次成為焦點</h2>
<p>伯納姆重返議會的潛在路徑仍需數週時間，並且他在補選中是否能勝出並無保證，考慮到改革黨在該地區地方政府選舉中的近期強勢，斯塔默面臨的直接政治威脅目前看起來不那麼緊迫，為其他因素影響英鎊走勢創造了空間。越來越多的情況下，這可能是英格蘭銀行的反應功能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView (BST)</p>
<p>這使得本週的英國數據備受關注。週二發佈的勞動力市場報告中，除獎金外的平均週薪仍然是關鍵數據，因為英央行對國內產生的通脹壓力持續關注，而失業率也將受到關注，儘管對調查數據的可靠性仍存在疑問。</p>
<p>這尤其重要，因為市場預計到年底英央行將至少再加息兩次，使得即將發佈的數據在本週的宏觀背景下對英鎊和英國利率定價具有更大意義。</p>
<p>對於 24 小時後的通脹報告，關注的焦點將是是否有明確證據表明更高的能源價格開始進一步滲透到供應鏈中，影響更廣泛的定價行為。這使得核心、服務和生產者價格指標的關注度進一步提高，尤其是後者，因為它將提供關於向英國消費者傳遞的管道壓力的信號。</p>
<p>在英國數據發佈之間，交易者還應密切關注影響力巨大的美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒即將發表的講話，他對通脹衝擊美國經濟的看法以及對聯邦公開市場委員會貨幣政策框架的潛在變化，包括可能的通脹測量方法的轉變，市場對此非常關注。</p>
<h2>國債壓力暫時緩解</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>長期國債收益率目前似乎已經穩定，這不僅反映了圍繞英國政治的消息流有所改善，也反映了上週持續拋售後收益率上升的幅度已經變得相當緊張。</p>
<p>圍繞英國財政前景、政治不穩定和通脹風險的根本擔憂並沒有消失，遠未結束，但當各地的頭條新聞開始大聲喊叫收益率達到 1990 年代以來的最高水平時，這通常是一個良好的跡象，表明市場定位和情緒可能已經接近極端。到目前為止，這一情況得到了驗證。</p>
<h2>英鎊關注突破</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>週一，國債市場的表現優於英鎊，英鎊/美元在亞洲時段早盤交易走低後迅速上漲，幫助在日線圖上形成了看漲的關鍵反轉蠟燭。該貨幣對目前位於 50 日和 200 日移動平均線的交匯處，前支撐位在 1.3450 略高於當前水平，成為交易者關注的直接水平。</p>
<p>鑑於關鍵反轉預示着上行風險，交易者應關注突破 1.3450 的情況，從而建立多頭頭寸，並在下方設置緊密止損以保護。如果該貨幣對突破、回測並從 1.3450 反彈，設置的優點將進一步提高。100 日移動平均線是多頭的第一個目標，1.3500 和 1.3550 是之後的下一個目標，因為英鎊有向大整數和半整數靠攏的歷史。</p>
<p>相反，如果看漲信號被證明是虛假的，這在這個以頭條新聞驅動的環境中仍然是一個真實風險，那麼回落至 50 日和 200 日移動平均線區域將再次允許考慮空頭，並在上方設置緊密止損以保護，目標為週一的低點 1.3304。</p>
<p>振盪器發出的信號完全中立，更加強調價格行動而不是保持強烈的方向性偏見。</p>
<h2>英鎊/澳元關注趨勢突破</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>隨着海灣地區的頭條新聞主導了更廣泛的美元方向，英國利率定價和國內基本面的變化可能在交叉貨幣對中更為明顯。</p>
<p>英鎊/澳元值得關注，在上週五假突破 12 月 2023 年低點後急劇反轉，形成了吞沒蠟燭，幫助週一進一步上漲。該貨幣對目前正關注自 3 月底以來的下行趨勢，交易者需警惕潛在的趨勢突破。</p>
<p>今天的下行趨勢位於 1.8775 附近，輕微的阻力位於 1.8825 稍遠處。如果價格突破下行趨勢並保持在後者之上，將允許建立多頭頭寸，並在下方設置緊密止損以保護，目標為 50 日移動平均線與 1.8950 阻力的交匯處。</p>
<p>另一方面，如果該貨幣對測試下行趨勢並失敗，確認其為阻力，則可以考慮在下方建立空頭頭寸，並在上方設置緊密止損以保護，初始目標為 1.8696，之後是上週設定的低點 1.8550 以下。</p>
<p>在最近幾周偏向下行趨勢的情況下，振盪指標現在開始對多頭變得更加積極，RSI（14）突破了其下行趨勢但仍保持在 50 以下，而 MACD 看起來接近形成看漲交叉，同時仍然略微處於負區間。這尚未發出看漲動能信號，但推動該貨幣對達到多年低點的下行力量幾乎已經消失。</p>

英鎊 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>GBP/USD 顯示出看漲的關鍵反轉，因為英國國債收益率趨於穩定，這暗示近期英鎊拋售可能接近尾聲。市場預期今年至少會有兩次英格蘭銀行加息，接下來的英國勞動力和通脹數據變得愈發重要。英鎊的表現受到國內因素和持續的地緣政治緊張局勢的影響。交易者應關注是否突破 1.3450，以尋找潛在的多頭機會，而未能維持該水平可能會導致空頭機會</p>

<ul>
<li>GBP/USD delivers bullish key reversal as gilt rout eases</li>
<li>Markets pricing at least two BoE hikes this year</li>
<li>UK wages and inflation data shift into sharp focus</li>
<li>GBP/AUD tests key downtrend after false downside break</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英鎊/美元呈現看漲關鍵反轉，隨着國債拋售減緩</li>
<li>市場預計今年至少兩次英央行加息</li>
<li>英國工資和通脹數據備受關注</li>
<li>英鎊/澳元在假突破下測試關鍵下行趨勢</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Perfect Storm for Pound Bulls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英鎊多頭的完美風暴</h2>
</div><p>Monday delivered a near-perfect combination of developments for sterling bulls, triggering a sharp reversal in UK assets after last week’s fiscal and political turmoil hammered the pound and sent long-end gilt yields surging to levels not seen since the 1990s. Calming remarks from Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham on fiscal discipline, an IMF growth upgrade, hawkish rhetoric from Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene and another Trump TACO combined to fuel a sharp reversal in GBP/USD alongside a modest retracement in long-end gilt yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一為英鎊多頭提供了近乎完美的發展組合，在上週財政和政治動盪重創英鎊並使長期國債收益率飆升至 1990 年代以來的最高水平後，觸發了英國資產的急劇反轉。工黨領導候選人安迪·伯納姆關於財政紀律的平靜言論、國際貨幣基金組織的增長上調、英格蘭銀行決策者梅根·格林的鷹派言論以及特朗普的又一次發言共同推動了英鎊/美元的急劇反轉，同時長期國債收益率也出現了適度回撤。</p>
</div><p>While the conflict in the Gulf remains the dominant macro driver for the pound against the dollar, for the first time in a while sterling is once again starting to trade on idiosyncratic UK factors too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管海灣地區的衝突仍然是英鎊對美元的主要宏觀驅動因素，但英鎊再次開始受到特有的英國因素的影響。</p>
</div><h2>BoE Back in Focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英央行再次成為焦點</h2>
</div><p>With Burnham’s potential path back to parliament still weeks away and no guarantee he even wins the byelection given Reform’s recent strength in local government elections in the area, the immediate political threat to Starmer looks less pressing for now, creating room for other drivers to influence sterling movements. Increasingly, that may now be the Bank of England reaction function.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯納姆重返議會的潛在路徑仍需數週時間，並且他在補選中是否能勝出並無保證，考慮到改革黨在該地區地方政府選舉中的近期強勢，斯塔默面臨的直接政治威脅目前看起來不那麼緊迫，為其他因素影響英鎊走勢創造了空間。越來越多的情況下，這可能是英格蘭銀行的反應功能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (BST)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView (BST)</p>
</div><p>That puts this week’s UK data into focus. For the labour market report out Tuesday, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses remains the key release given the Bank’s continued concern surrounding domestically generated inflation pressures, while the unemployment rate will also matter despite lingering questions about the reliability of the survey data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得本週的英國數據備受關注。週二發佈的勞動力市場報告中，除獎金外的平均週薪仍然是關鍵數據，因為英央行對國內產生的通脹壓力持續關注，而失業率也將受到關注，儘管對調查數據的可靠性仍存在疑問。</p>
</div><p>That’s especially important with markets pricing at least two further Bank of England rate hikes by year-end, leaving incoming data carrying far greater significance for sterling and UK rate pricing during what’s otherwise a fairly quiet week on the macro front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這尤其重要，因為市場預計到年底英央行將至少再加息兩次，使得即將發佈的數據在本週的宏觀背景下對英鎊和英國利率定價具有更大意義。</p>
</div><p>For the inflation report 24 hours later, attention will be on whether there’s clear evidence higher energy prices are starting to bleed further down supply chains into broader pricing behaviour. That places extra emphasis on the core, services and producer price measures, especially the latter given it will provide signal on pipeline pressures heading towards UK consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 24 小時後的通脹報告，關注的焦點將是是否有明確證據表明更高的能源價格開始進一步滲透到供應鏈中，影響更廣泛的定價行為。這使得核心、服務和生產者價格指標的關注度進一步提高，尤其是後者，因為它將提供關於向英國消費者傳遞的管道壓力的信號。</p>
</div><p>Wedged in between the UK data, traders should also keep a close eye on an upcoming speech from influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller, with his views on the inflation impulse hitting the US economy and potential changes to the FOMC’s monetary policy framework, including a possible shift in inflation measurement, of interest to markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英國數據發佈之間，交易者還應密切關注影響力巨大的美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒即將發表的講話，他對通脹衝擊美國經濟的看法以及對聯邦公開市場委員會貨幣政策框架的潛在變化，包括可能的通脹測量方法的轉變，市場對此非常關注。</p>
</div><h2>Gilt Stress Eases for Now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>國債壓力暫時緩解</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Long-end gilt yields look to have stabilised for now, likely reflecting not only the improved news flow surrounding UK politics, but also just how stretched the move higher had become after last week’s relentless selloff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期國債收益率目前似乎已經穩定，這不僅反映了圍繞英國政治的消息流有所改善，也反映了上週持續拋售後收益率上升的幅度已經變得相當緊張。</p>
</div><p>The underlying concerns surrounding Britain’s fiscal outlook, political instability and inflation risks haven’t disappeared, not by a long shot, but when headlines everywhere start screaming yields are hitting the highest levels since the 1990s, it’s often a decent sign positioning and sentiment may already be nearing an extreme. So far, that’s proven to be the case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圍繞英國財政前景、政治不穩定和通脹風險的根本擔憂並沒有消失，遠未結束，但當各地的頭條新聞開始大聲喊叫收益率達到 1990 年代以來的最高水平時，這通常是一個良好的跡象，表明市場定位和情緒可能已經接近極端。到目前為止，這一情況得到了驗證。</p>
</div><h2>Sterling Eyes Break Higher</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英鎊關注突破</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The outperformance in gilt markets filtered through to sterling on Monday, with GBP/USD ripping higher after trading lower early in the Asian session, helping to deliver a bullish key reversal candle on the daily chart. The pair now finds itself resting on the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages with former support at 1.3450 sitting marginally overhead, leaving them as the immediate levels for traders to focus on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一，國債市場的表現優於英鎊，英鎊/美元在亞洲時段早盤交易走低後迅速上漲，幫助在日線圖上形成了看漲的關鍵反轉蠟燭。該貨幣對目前位於 50 日和 200 日移動平均線的交匯處，前支撐位在 1.3450 略高於當前水平，成為交易者關注的直接水平。</p>
</div><p>Given the key reversal warns of upside risks, traders should be on the lookout for a break above 1.3450, allowing for longs to be established with a tight stop beneath for protection. The merits of the setup would improve further if the pair were to break, retest and bounce from 1.3450 before entry. The 100-day moving average is the first level for longs to target, with 1.3500 and 1.3550 the next levels after that given sterling’s track record to gravitate towards big and half-big figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於關鍵反轉預示着上行風險，交易者應關注突破 1.3450 的情況，從而建立多頭頭寸，並在下方設置緊密止損以保護。如果該貨幣對突破、回測並從 1.3450 反彈，設置的優點將進一步提高。100 日移動平均線是多頭的第一個目標，1.3500 和 1.3550 是之後的下一個目標，因為英鎊有向大整數和半整數靠攏的歷史。</p>
</div><p>Alternatively, if the bullish signal proves false, which remains a genuine risk in this headline-driven environment, a reversal back beneath the 50 and 200-day moving average zone would allow for shorts to be considered once again with a tight stop above for protection, targeting Monday’s low of 1.3304.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果看漲信號被證明是虛假的，這在這個以頭條新聞驅動的環境中仍然是一個真實風險，那麼回落至 50 日和 200 日移動平均線區域將再次允許考慮空頭，並在上方設置緊密止損以保護，目標為週一的低點 1.3304。</p>
</div><p>The message from the oscillators remains entirely neutral, placing greater emphasis on price action rather than maintaining a strong directional bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>振盪器發出的信號完全中立，更加強調價格行動而不是保持強烈的方向性偏見。</p>
</div><h2>GBP/AUD Eyes Trend Break</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英鎊/澳元關注趨勢突破</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>With Gulf headlines dominating broader dollar direction, cleaner expressions of shifting UK rate pricing and domestic fundamentals may be more evident against the crosses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着海灣地區的頭條新聞主導了更廣泛的美元方向，英國利率定價和國內基本面的變化可能在交叉貨幣對中更為明顯。</p>
</div><p>GBP/AUD is one to keep on the radar, reversing hard after a false break beneath the December 2023 swing low last Friday, delivering an engulfing candle that helped herald further gains on Monday. The pair now finds itself eyeing the downtrend from the late March swing high of 1.9400, putting traders on alert for a potential trend break.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英鎊/澳元值得關注，在上週五假突破 12 月 2023 年低點後急劇反轉，形成了吞沒蠟燭，幫助週一進一步上漲。該貨幣對目前正關注自 3 月底以來的下行趨勢，交易者需警惕潛在的趨勢突破。</p>
</div><p>The downtrend sits around 1.8775 today with minor resistance located just beyond at 1.8825. If the price were to break the downtrend and hold above the latter, it would allow for longs to be established with a tight stop beneath for protection, targeting the confluence of the 50-day moving average and 1.8950 resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的下行趨勢位於 1.8775 附近，輕微的阻力位於 1.8825 稍遠處。如果價格突破下行趨勢並保持在後者之上，將允許建立多頭頭寸，並在下方設置緊密止損以保護，目標為 50 日移動平均線與 1.8950 阻力的交匯處。</p>
</div><p>Alternatively, if the pair were to test the downtrend and fail, validating it as resistance, shorts could be considered beneath with a tight stop above for protection, targeting 1.8696 initially and, beyond that, the swing low set last week beneath 1.8550.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，如果該貨幣對測試下行趨勢並失敗，確認其為阻力，則可以考慮在下方建立空頭頭寸，並在上方設置緊密止損以保護，初始目標為 1.8696，之後是上週設定的低點 1.8550 以下。</p>
</div><p>Having favoured downside for a prolonged period over recent weeks, the oscillators are now starting to turn more constructive for bulls with RSI (14) breaking its downtrend while holding beneath 50, while MACD looks close to staging a bullish crossover while remaining marginally in negative territory. It’s not a bullish momentum signal yet, but the downside strength that helped drive the pair to multi-year lows has all but evaporated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近幾周偏向下行趨勢的情況下，振盪指標現在開始對多頭變得更加積極，RSI（14）突破了其下行趨勢但仍保持在 50 以下，而 MACD 看起來接近形成看漲交叉，同時仍然略微處於負區間。這尚未發出看漲動能信號，但推動該貨幣對達到多年低點的下行力量幾乎已經消失。</p>
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英鎊/美元的看漲關鍵反轉形態警示英鎊的拋售可能已經接近尾聲