<p>[東京] 日本經濟在第一季度以超出預期的速度增長，儘管這種勢頭現在面臨嚴峻考驗，因為伊朗戰爭帶來的能源衝擊正在全面影響企業和消費者。</p>
<p>數據顯示，日本實際國內生產總值（GDP）年化增長 2.1%，超出市場中值預測的 1.7% 增幅，以及修正後的前一季度（10 月至 12 月）0.8% 的增長。</p>
<p>按季度計算，經濟增長 0.5%，而市場中值預測為 0.4% 的增幅。</p>
<p>分析師預計，隨着中東衝突的影響加劇，全球能源供應遭遇前所未有的干擾，未來幾個季度的增長將放緩。</p>
<p>“今天的數據表明，在伊朗戰爭之前，經濟處於穩固的基礎上，這意味着它有一定的緩衝能力來應對能源衝擊，” 大和生命研究所高級執行經濟學家新家義樹表示。</p>
<p>“經濟可能在第二季度收縮，但如果只是整體價格上漲，之後可能會恢復增長。如果出現嚴重的供應中斷，增長的損害可能會如此嚴重，以至於日本央行可能沒有加息的空間，” 他説。</p>
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<p>私人消費佔日本 GDP 的半數以上，數據顯示增長 0.3%，高於市場預測的 0.2%。</p>
<p>淨外部需求，即出口減去進口，為增長貢獻了 0.3 個百分點。路透社調查的分析師預計貢獻為 0.2 個百分點。</p>
<p>數據顯示，資本支出在 1 月至 3 月季度增長 0.3%，高於市場預測的 0.2%。</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本服務業增長在 4 月降至 11 個月低點：PMI</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本實際工資在 3 月連續第三個月上漲，支持日本央行加息的理由</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本製造業活動增長因囤積而達到四年高點，PMI 顯示</h3>
<p>儘管數據顯示國內需求和企業支出保持穩定，但自 2 月 28 日中東衝突爆發以來，經濟風險加劇。</p>
<p>伊朗在回應美以攻擊時有效關閉霍爾木茲海峽，導致油價飆升，並引發對嚴重供應中斷的擔憂。</p>
<p>由於日本對來自中東的石油進口依賴嚴重，能源衝擊使其特別脆弱，激增的燃料成本推高了通貨膨脹，同時對企業利潤和整體經濟造成壓力。</p>
<p>前景的變化已經在政策預期中產生漣漪效應。日本央行發出了鷹派信號，促使市場預計 6 月加息的可能性很大。路透社</p>
<p>解碼亞洲通訊：您在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲的指南。點擊此處註冊以獲取解碼亞洲通訊，直接發送到您的郵箱。免費。</p>

日本指數 MSCI ETF - iShares

1321

南方日經225

南方兩倍看多日經

南方兩倍看空日經

1570

1357

<p>日本經濟在第一季度年化增長 2.1%，超出預期，但由於伊朗戰爭對能源供應的影響，面臨挑戰。私人消費增長 0.3%，淨外部需求也帶來了積極貢獻。分析師預測，隨着能源成本上升，可能在第二季度出現收縮，這將影響通貨膨脹和企業利潤。日本銀行的加息預期可能會根據供應中斷的嚴重程度而變化</p>

<p>[TOKYO] Japan’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, though that momentum now faces a severe test as the full force of the energy shock from the Iran war filters through businesses and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[東京] 日本經濟在第一季度以超出預期的速度增長，儘管這種勢頭現在面臨嚴峻考驗，因為伊朗戰爭帶來的能源衝擊正在全面影響企業和消費者。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased an annualised 2.1 per cent, data showed on Tuesday, outstripping the median market forecast for a 1.7 per cent gain and a revised 0.8 per cent rise in the previous October-to-December quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據顯示，日本實際國內生產總值（GDP）年化增長 2.1%，超出市場中值預測的 1.7% 增幅，以及修正後的前一季度（10 月至 12 月）0.8% 的增長。</p>
</div><p>On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the economy grew 0.5 per cent compared with the median market forecast for a 0.4 per cent gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按季度計算，經濟增長 0.5%，而市場中值預測為 0.4% 的增幅。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as the fallout from the Middle East conflict, which has caused an unprecedented disruption to global energy supplies, intensifies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計，隨着中東衝突的影響加劇，全球能源供應遭遇前所未有的干擾，未來幾個季度的增長將放緩。</p>
</div><p>“Today’s data shows the economy was on a solid footing before the Iran war, which means it has some buffers to weather the energy shock,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“今天的數據表明，在伊朗戰爭之前，經濟處於穩固的基礎上，這意味着它有一定的緩衝能力來應對能源衝擊，” 大和生命研究所高級執行經濟學家新家義樹表示。</p>
</div><p>“The economy may contract in the second quarter but if it’s just about prices rising overall, it can probably resume a recovery thereafter. If there’s huge supply disruptions, the damage to growth could be so severe the BOJ may not have scope to raise interest rates,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“經濟可能在第二季度收縮，但如果只是整體價格上漲，之後可能會恢復增長。如果出現嚴重的供應中斷，增長的損害可能會如此嚴重，以至於日本央行可能沒有加息的空間，” 他説。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>獲取洞察信息，直接發送到您的郵箱。</p>
</div><p>Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s GDP, rose 0.3 per cent, compared with market forecasts for a 0.2 per cent gain, the government data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人消費佔日本 GDP 的半數以上，數據顯示增長 0.3%，高於市場預測的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Net external demand, or exports minus imports, added 0.3 percentage point to growth. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected a 0.2 percentage point contribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨外部需求，即出口減去進口，為增長貢獻了 0.3 個百分點。路透社調查的分析師預計貢獻為 0.2 個百分點。</p>
</div><p>Capital expenditure grew 0.3 per cent in January-to-March quarter compared with market forecasts for a 0.2 per cent gain, the data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據顯示，資本支出在 1 月至 3 月季度增長 0.3%，高於市場預測的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan service sector growth slows to 11-month low in April: PMI</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本服務業增長在 4 月降至 11 個月低點：PMI</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan real wages climb for third month in March, backing case for BOJ rate hike</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本實際工資在 3 月連續第三個月上漲，支持日本央行加息的理由</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan’s factory activity growth hits 4-year high on stockpiling, PMI shows</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本製造業活動增長因囤積而達到四年高點，PMI 顯示</h3>
</div><p>While the data suggests domestic demand and business spending were holding up, risks to the economy have heightened since the Middle East conflict erupted on Feb 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管數據顯示國內需求和企業支出保持穩定，但自 2 月 28 日中東衝突爆發以來，經濟風險加劇。</p>
</div><p>Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli attacks, sending oil prices soaring and stoking fears of severe supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗在回應美以攻擊時有效關閉霍爾木茲海峽，導致油價飆升，並引發對嚴重供應中斷的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Japan is particularly vulnerable to the energy shock due to its heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East, with surging fuel costs driving up inflation, while weighing on corporate profits and the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於日本對來自中東的石油進口依賴嚴重，能源衝擊使其特別脆弱，激增的燃料成本推高了通貨膨脹，同時對企業利潤和整體經濟造成壓力。</p>
</div><p>The shift in the outlook is already rippling through policy expectations. The Bank of Japan has dialled up hawkish signals that had prompted markets to price in a strong chance of an interest-rate hike in June. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前景的變化已經在政策預期中產生漣漪效應。日本央行發出了鷹派信號，促使市場預計 6 月加息的可能性很大。路透社</p>
</div><p>Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解碼亞洲通訊：您在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲的指南。點擊此處註冊以獲取解碼亞洲通訊，直接發送到您的郵箱。免費。</p>
</div>

Japan’s economy grows at solid pace in Q1, but Iran war set to upend momentum

- 日本第一季度 GDP 年化增長 2.1%，超出預期 1.7%。
- 能源衝擊因伊朗戰爭影響經濟前景，未來增長可能放緩。
- 日本央行可能因供應中斷而無法加息。

日本經濟在第一季度穩步增長，但伊朗戰爭可能會擾亂這一增長勢頭