<p>倒計時已經開始，<strong>Nvidia (</strong> <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong> 將於本週三公佈其第一季度財報。投資者在發佈前充滿期待，因為 Nvidia 一再實現了巨大的增長，這得益於超大規模企業和企業在擴展計算能力方面的持續 AI 基礎設施支出。</p>
<h3>在 TipRanks 上享受 55% 的折扣</h3>
<p>忘掉保證金或期權吧。專業人士是如何交易 NVDA 的</p>
<p>在財報發佈前，NVDA 股票本月迄今已上漲約 11%，反映出市場對該公司再次交出超出預期業績的信心依然強烈。</p>
<p>然而，投資者 Florian Muller 表示，有理由相信 Nvidia 可能無法以投資者習慣的幅度超出預期。</p>
<p>Muller 指出：“Nvidia 仍然是核心持股，擁有強勁的收入和盈利質量，但我在財報發佈前不再進一步增持。”</p>
<p>Muller 的謹慎主要歸結於一個問題——預期可能終於追上了 Nvidia 的增長軌跡。這位投資者指出，超大規模企業的資本支出歷來是 Nvidia 收入表現最強的領先指標之一，谷歌、微軟、Meta 和亞馬遜的支出趨勢與 Nvidia 的收入在一個季度後表現出極高的相關性。</p>
<p>這種關係在過去幾個季度表現得尤為明顯，隨着 AI 基礎設施支出的加速，Nvidia 的收入持續遠超華爾街的預期。然而，這一次，Muller 認為情況看起來有所不同。儘管谷歌最新的資本支出數據仍然強勁，但投資者指出，微軟和 Meta 的支出趨勢在環比上有所減弱，微軟的資本支出幾乎保持 “平穩”，而 Meta 的支出實際上較上個季度有所下降。</p>
<p>使用相同的歷史框架，Muller 估計 Nvidia 本季度的收入可能在 780 億美元到 800 億美元之間。問題在於，這些數字現在與分析師的共識大致相符，而不是明顯高於共識。Muller 認為，投資者逐漸習慣於 Nvidia 的巨大超預期，導致上漲驚喜的幅度隨時間縮小。</p>
<p>Muller 解釋道：“驚喜的幅度總體上在縮小，因為分析師習慣了超預期，投資者繼續提高他們的預期。”</p>
<p>重要的是，Muller 明確表示，他的謹慎並不是基於對 Nvidia 基礎業務質量的擔憂。事實上，他稱讚了公司的 “強勁收入和盈利質量”，同時強調 Nvidia 強大的自由現金流生成和改善的現金轉化指標。這位投資者還反駁了關於應收賬款的擔憂，認為應將其與公司快速擴張的銷售基礎相對比，而不是孤立地看待。</p>
<p>在估值層面，Muller 承認，隨着現金流預期的改善和淨現金頭寸的上升，他的折現現金流假設在最近幾個月變得更加積極。然而，他表示，Nvidia 最近的反彈已經在很大程度上反映了樂觀情緒。儘管他仍然將 Nvidia 視為核心的長期持股，但他表示，如果股價低於 200 美元，他會更願意增加持倉。</p>
<p>目前，Muller 仍然持有 Nvidia 的投資，儘管他指出，在可能成為本季度市場最受關注的財報發佈之前，他相對於更廣泛的指數和 ETF 保持了低配的倉位。</p>
<p>為此，Muller 對 NVDA 股票給予持有（即中性）評級。</p>
<p>這在華爾街並不是一個常見的觀點。NVDA 擁有 40 個買入評級，僅有 1 個持有和 1 個賣出評級，整體共識評級為強烈買入。其 12 個月的平均目標價為 281.59 美元，意味着從當前水平約有 27% 的上漲空間。（見 <strong>NVDA 股票預測</strong>）</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Direxion

1.5 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Tradr

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>投資者 Florian Muller 在英偉達財報發佈前建議謹慎對待該股票，認為市場預期可能已經追趕上公司的增長。他承認英偉達的收入和盈利質量強勁，但認為潛在的重大上行驚喜的可能性已經減小。Muller 對 NVDA 股票維持持有評級，表明中立立場，儘管該股近期反彈且分析師的共識評級強勁</p>

<p>The countdown has begun, as <strong>Nvidia (</strong> <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong> prepares to unveil its first-quarter report this Wednesday. Investors are heading into the release with expectations running high, as Nvidia has repeatedly delivered massive growth fueled by relentless AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers and enterprises racing to expand computing capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倒計時已經開始，<strong>Nvidia (</strong> <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong> 將於本週三公佈其第一季度財報。投資者在發佈前充滿期待，因為 Nvidia 一再實現了巨大的增長，這得益於超大規模企業和企業在擴展計算能力方面的持續 AI 基礎設施支出。</p>
</div><h3>Claim 55% Off TipRanks</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在 TipRanks 上享受 55% 的折扣</h3>
</div><p>Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade NVDA</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忘掉保證金或期權吧。專業人士是如何交易 NVDA 的</p>
</div><p>Heading into the print, NVDA stock has climbed about 11% so far this month, reflecting continued confidence that the company can once again deliver results well ahead of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財報發佈前，NVDA 股票本月迄今已上漲約 11%，反映出市場對該公司再次交出超出預期業績的信心依然強烈。</p>
</div><p>However, according to investor Florian Muller, there are reasons to believe Nvidia may not exceed expectations by the same magnitude investors have grown accustomed to seeing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資者 Florian Muller 表示，有理由相信 Nvidia 可能無法以投資者習慣的幅度超出預期。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Nvidia remains a core holding, with robust revenue and earnings quality, but I refrain from further accumulation ahead of earnings,&#34; Muller noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Muller 指出：“Nvidia 仍然是核心持股，擁有強勁的收入和盈利質量，但我在財報發佈前不再進一步增持。”</p>
</div><p>Muller's caution mainly comes down to one issue – expectations may have finally caught up with Nvidia's growth trajectory. The investor points out that hyperscaler capital spending has historically been one of the strongest leading indicators for Nvidia's revenue performance, with spending trends from Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon showing an exceptionally high correlation with Nvidia's revenue one quarter later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Muller 的謹慎主要歸結於一個問題——預期可能終於追上了 Nvidia 的增長軌跡。這位投資者指出，超大規模企業的資本支出歷來是 Nvidia 收入表現最強的領先指標之一，谷歌、微軟、Meta 和亞馬遜的支出趨勢與 Nvidia 的收入在一個季度後表現出極高的相關性。</p>
</div><p>That relationship has worked especially well over the past several quarters, when accelerating AI infrastructure spending consistently translated into Nvidia delivering revenue far ahead of Wall Street expectations. This time, however, Muller believes the setup looks different. While Google's latest capex figure remained strong, the investor notes that spending trends at Microsoft and Meta were less aggressive on a sequential basis, with Microsoft's capex remaining &#34;almost flat QoQ&#34; while Meta's spending actually declining from the prior quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種關係在過去幾個季度表現得尤為明顯，隨着 AI 基礎設施支出的加速，Nvidia 的收入持續遠超華爾街的預期。然而，這一次，Muller 認為情況看起來有所不同。儘管谷歌最新的資本支出數據仍然強勁，但投資者指出，微軟和 Meta 的支出趨勢在環比上有所減弱，微軟的資本支出幾乎保持 “平穩”，而 Meta 的支出實際上較上個季度有所下降。</p>
</div><p>Using the same historical framework that successfully projected Nvidia's outsized beats in recent quarters, Muller estimates Nvidia could report about $78 billion to $80 billion in quarterly revenue. The problem is that those figures are now largely aligned with analyst consensus rather than meaningfully above it. Muller believes investors are gradually becoming accustomed to Nvidia's huge beats, reducing the scale of upside surprises over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用相同的歷史框架，Muller 估計 Nvidia 本季度的收入可能在 780 億美元到 800 億美元之間。問題在於，這些數字現在與分析師的共識大致相符，而不是明顯高於共識。Muller 認為，投資者逐漸習慣於 Nvidia 的巨大超預期，導致上漲驚喜的幅度隨時間縮小。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The margin of surprises is shrinking overall, as analysts get used to beats and investors continue to up their expectations,&#34; Muller explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Muller 解釋道：“驚喜的幅度總體上在縮小，因為分析師習慣了超預期，投資者繼續提高他們的預期。”</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Muller made clear that his caution is not rooted in concerns about Nvidia's underlying business quality. In fact, he praised the company's &#34;robust revenue and earnings quality,&#34; while highlighting Nvidia's strong free cash flow generation and improving cash conversion metrics. The investor also pushed back against concerns surrounding receivables, arguing they should be viewed relative to the company's rapidly expanding sales base rather than in isolation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，Muller 明確表示，他的謹慎並不是基於對 Nvidia 基礎業務質量的擔憂。事實上，他稱讚了公司的 “強勁收入和盈利質量”，同時強調 Nvidia 強大的自由現金流生成和改善的現金轉化指標。這位投資者還反駁了關於應收賬款的擔憂，認為應將其與公司快速擴張的銷售基礎相對比，而不是孤立地看待。</p>
</div><p>At the valuation level, Muller acknowledged that his discounted cash flow assumptions have become more constructive in recent months, helped by improving cash flow expectations and a rising net cash position. Nevertheless, he suggested Nvidia's recent rally has already priced in much of the optimism. While he still views Nvidia as a core long-term holding, he said he would find share prices below $200 more attractive for adding exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在估值層面，Muller 承認，隨着現金流預期的改善和淨現金頭寸的上升，他的折現現金流假設在最近幾個月變得更加積極。然而，他表示，Nvidia 最近的反彈已經在很大程度上反映了樂觀情緒。儘管他仍然將 Nvidia 視為核心的長期持股，但他表示，如果股價低於 200 美元，他會更願意增加持倉。</p>
</div><p>For now, Muller remains invested in Nvidia, though he noted he is maintaining an underweight position relative to broader indexes and ETFs ahead of what could become one of the market's most closely watched earnings releases this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，Muller 仍然持有 Nvidia 的投資，儘管他指出，在可能成為本季度市場最受關注的財報發佈之前，他相對於更廣泛的指數和 ETF 保持了低配的倉位。</p>
</div><p>To this end, Muller assigns NVDA shares a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為此，Muller 對 NVDA 股票給予持有（即中性）評級。</p>
</div><p>That's not a very common view on Wall Street. With 40 Buys, and just 1 Hold and Sell, each, NVDA boasts a Strong Buy consensus rating. Its 12-month average price target of $281.59 implies ~27% upside from current levels. (See <strong>NVDA stock forecast</strong>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在華爾街並不是一個常見的觀點。NVDA 擁有 40 個買入評級，僅有 1 個持有和 1 個賣出評級，整體共識評級為強烈買入。其 12 個月的平均目標價為 281.59 美元，意味着從當前水平約有 27% 的上漲空間。（見 <strong>NVDA 股票預測</strong>）</p>
</div>

'Don't Go All In,' Says Investor About Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings

- Nvidia 將於本週三發佈第一季度財報，預計將面臨高期望。  
- 投資者對 Nvidia 未來表現持樂觀態度，但分析師的預期已經上升。  
- 財報前，Nvidia 股價已上漲約 11%，反映出市場信心逐漸增強。

投資者在英偉達股票即將公佈財報前表示：‘不要全押’