<p>美國四大零售商將在本週公佈季度財報，而這些報告最緊迫的問題是，美國人是否終於開始承受不斷上漲的價格帶來的壓力。來自家得寶、Lowe’s、沃爾瑪和塔吉特的結果預計將提供美國家庭如何在因油價飆升、頑固的通貨膨脹和高企的借貸成本而日益緊張的經濟中應對的最清晰快照之一。隨着能源價格的上漲繼續波及更廣泛的經濟，推動運輸、食品雜貨和家庭成本的上升，風險尤其高，而許多消費者已經感到壓力重重。經濟學家、投資者和記者將分析財務結果及公司領導的相關評論，尋找明顯的壓力跡象：消費者是否在轉向更便宜的產品？是否推遲家庭改善項目？或者是否在優先考慮必需品的同時減少非必要消費？家得寶將在週二東部時間上午 9 點拉開備受關注的財報序幕。高管的評論預計將為消費者信心和住房市場提供早期解讀，根據《抵押貸款新聞日報》，週一全國平均抵押貸款利率為 30 年固定貸款的 6.68%。到目前為止，今年春季的早期消費數據表明，消費者的支出狀況仍然不錯——但並不均衡。根據美國銀行研究所最近的報告，4 月份每户家庭的信用卡和借記卡總支出同比增長了 4.8%，是三年來單月增幅最大。但經濟學家表示，在表面上的韌性之下，出現了更為明顯的分化。所謂的 K 型經濟——富裕家庭的支出佔整體消費支出的過大份額，而低收入家庭則在掙扎——在最近幾個月中加劇。報告發現，低收入和中等收入消費者在餐飲和娛樂等非必要消費類別上越來越縮減支出，而富裕家庭則因股市強勁上漲和房屋淨值上升而繼續保持健康的消費水平。隨着 4 月份的通貨膨脹率為 3.8%，高於當月 3.6% 的工資增長率，經濟學家警告稱，低收入家庭的財務壓力可能會加劇。如果這種差距繼續擴大，可能會使即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃爾什的政策路徑變得複雜。沃爾什已經表示他對美聯儲的 “體制變革” 持開放態度，他將在持續的通貨膨脹可能迫使中央銀行維持利率高於幾個月前任何人所能想象的水平的情況下，接任這一重要職位——以防止經濟過熱。美聯儲提高基準利率直接影響消費者借貸成本，這意味着同樣高企的借貸成本將繼續給已經在努力應對上漲成本的企業和消費者施加壓力。美國銀行的經濟學家表示：“雖然家庭仍然有一些短期緩衝——包括税收退款和儲蓄——但這些緩衝也分佈不均，突顯了表面韌性與一些家庭所經歷的壓力之間日益擴大的差距。”</p>

沃爾瑪

家得寶

日常消費品 ETF - SPDR

<p>四家主要的美國零售商，包括家得寶和沃爾瑪，將在本週公佈季度財報，揭示消費者在通貨膨脹和高借貸成本下如何應對不斷上漲的價格。儘管整體支出有所增加，但出現了分化，富裕家庭的消費增加，而低收入家庭則削減了非必需品的購買。經濟學家警告稱，低收入家庭面臨的財務壓力可能加劇，這將使即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什的貨幣政策更加複雜</p>

<p>Four of America’s largest retailers will report their quarterly earnings this week, and the most pressing question the reports will answer is whether Americans are finally starting to buckle under the weight of rising prices. The results from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart and Target are expected to offer one of the clearest snapshots yet of how U.S. households are navigating an economy increasingly under strain from soaring gas prices, stubborn inflation and elevated borrowing costs. The stakes are especially high as rising energy prices continue to ripple through the broader economy, driving up transportation, grocery and household costs when many consumers are already stretched thin. Economists, investors and journalists will parse the financial results and the accompanying commentary from corporate leaders looking for explicit signs of strain: Are shoppers trading down to cheaper products? Delaying home improvement projects? Or pulling back on discretionary purchases to prioritize essentials? Home Depot kicks off the closely watched earnings parade at 9 a.m. ET Tuesday. Commentary from executives is expected to provide an early read on both consumer confidence and the housing market, in which average mortgage rates nationwide Monday were 6.68% for a 30-year fixed loan, according to Mortgage News Daily. So far this spring, early spending data suggests consumers are still holding up all right — but not evenly. According to a recent report from the Bank of America Institute, total credit and debit card spending per household rose 4.8% in April from a year ago, the strongest single-month increase in three years. But beneath the headline resilience, economists say, an even sharper divide is emerging. The so-called K-shaped economy — in which spending by wealthier households accounts for an outsized share of overall consumer spending while lower-income families struggle — has widened in recent months, according to economists. The report found lower- and middle-income consumers were increasingly pulling back on discretionary spending categories like dining and entertainment, while wealthier households — boosted by strong stock market gains and rising home equity values — continue to spend at a healthy pace. And with inflation running at 3.8% in April, above the wage growth rate of 3.6% that month, economists warn that financial pressure on lower-income households could intensify. And if the gap continues to widen, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is expected to be sworn in as the central bank’s next chief Friday. Warsh, who already said he was open to “regime change” at the Fed, will assume the top job when persistent inflation could force the central bank to keep interest rates higher for longer than anyone could have imagined just a few months ago — to prevent the economy from overheating. Higher benchmark interest rates from the Fed have a direct impact on consumer lending costs, which means the same elevated borrowing costs would continue to keep the pressure on businesses and consumers who are already struggling to keep up with rising costs. “While households still have some near‑term buffers — including tax refunds and savings — these too are unevenly distributed, underscoring the growing gap between headline resilience and stress experienced by some households,” Bank of America economists said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國四大零售商將在本週公佈季度財報，而這些報告最緊迫的問題是，美國人是否終於開始承受不斷上漲的價格帶來的壓力。來自家得寶、Lowe’s、沃爾瑪和塔吉特的結果預計將提供美國家庭如何在因油價飆升、頑固的通貨膨脹和高企的借貸成本而日益緊張的經濟中應對的最清晰快照之一。隨着能源價格的上漲繼續波及更廣泛的經濟，推動運輸、食品雜貨和家庭成本的上升，風險尤其高，而許多消費者已經感到壓力重重。經濟學家、投資者和記者將分析財務結果及公司領導的相關評論，尋找明顯的壓力跡象：消費者是否在轉向更便宜的產品？是否推遲家庭改善項目？或者是否在優先考慮必需品的同時減少非必要消費？家得寶將在週二東部時間上午 9 點拉開備受關注的財報序幕。高管的評論預計將為消費者信心和住房市場提供早期解讀，根據《抵押貸款新聞日報》，週一全國平均抵押貸款利率為 30 年固定貸款的 6.68%。到目前為止，今年春季的早期消費數據表明，消費者的支出狀況仍然不錯——但並不均衡。根據美國銀行研究所最近的報告，4 月份每户家庭的信用卡和借記卡總支出同比增長了 4.8%，是三年來單月增幅最大。但經濟學家表示，在表面上的韌性之下，出現了更為明顯的分化。所謂的 K 型經濟——富裕家庭的支出佔整體消費支出的過大份額，而低收入家庭則在掙扎——在最近幾個月中加劇。報告發現，低收入和中等收入消費者在餐飲和娛樂等非必要消費類別上越來越縮減支出，而富裕家庭則因股市強勁上漲和房屋淨值上升而繼續保持健康的消費水平。隨着 4 月份的通貨膨脹率為 3.8%，高於當月 3.6% 的工資增長率，經濟學家警告稱，低收入家庭的財務壓力可能會加劇。如果這種差距繼續擴大，可能會使即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃爾什的政策路徑變得複雜。沃爾什已經表示他對美聯儲的 “體制變革” 持開放態度，他將在持續的通貨膨脹可能迫使中央銀行維持利率高於幾個月前任何人所能想象的水平的情況下，接任這一重要職位——以防止經濟過熱。美聯儲提高基準利率直接影響消費者借貸成本，這意味着同樣高企的借貸成本將繼續給已經在努力應對上漲成本的企業和消費者施加壓力。美國銀行的經濟學家表示：“雖然家庭仍然有一些短期緩衝——包括税收退款和儲蓄——但這些緩衝也分佈不均，突顯了表面韌性與一些家庭所經歷的壓力之間日益擴大的差距。”</p>
</div>

Are consumers cracking under the weight of high prices? We’re about to find out.

- 美國四大零售商將公佈季度財報，關注消費者受價格上漲壓力的情況。  
- 經濟學家指出，較高收入家庭消費強勁，而低收入家庭則減少非必要支出。  
- 通脹與工資增長的差距可能加劇低收入家庭的財務壓力。

消費者是否在高價格的重壓下崩潰？我們很快就會知道答案