<ul>
<li>全球基金經理在 5 月份的股票配置創下紀錄新高</li>
<li>僅有 4% 的基金經理認為會出現硬着陸</li>
<li>66% 的受訪者預計霍爾木茲海峽的瓶頸將在未來幾個月內結束</li>
<li>62% 的受訪者目標為 30 年期國債收益率 6%，20% 的受訪者目標為 4%</li>
<li>40% 的受訪者表示第二波通脹是最大的尾部風險</li>
<li>現金水平從 4.3% 降至 3.9%，為 2024 年 2 月以來最大月度降幅</li>
</ul>
<p>美國銀行全球基金經理調查（FMS）是金融界最具影響力的月度報告之一。它對大約 200 到 400 名機構基金經理（管理數千億美元對沖基金、養老基金和共同基金的人士）進行調查，以瞭解他們在市場中的定位。</p>
<p>它作為一個逆向指標非常有用。事實上，當市場定位在某一側過於極端時，激進平倉的風險會增加。市場會懲罰自滿。通常會有一個催化劑觸發反轉，或者多個因素髮出拐點的信號。</p>
<p>我想強調標題中的 “僅有 4% 的基金經理認為會出現硬着陸”。我認為這與 “5 月份股票配置創紀錄新高” 結合在一起，是市場樂觀情緒的最強信號。市場中已經定價了過多的樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>儘管第二波通脹現在是最大的尾部風險，但我認為連續的美聯儲加息會更糟。如果霍爾木茲海峽的情況沒有改變，油價保持高位，那麼在這種情況下美聯儲收緊政策將引發股市崩盤，這時硬着陸的概率將迅速上升。</p>
<p>4 月份股市的反彈是由於對美伊協議的積極預期和對負增長恐懼的重新定價，但考慮到現在的風險不對稱，5 月份的拋物線式上漲看起來 “非理性”。</p>

<p>美國銀行的一項調查顯示，只有 4% 的基金經理預期經濟將出現硬着陸，而 5 月份股權配置創下新高。儘管 66% 的人預計霍爾木茲海峽的瓶頸將很快得到解決，但對第二波通貨膨脹的擔憂依然存在。現金水平顯著下降，表明市場樂觀情緒上升，儘管由於潛在的美聯儲加息和高企的油價，風險仍然很高</p>

<ul>
<li>Record rise in equity allocations by global fund managers in May</li>
<li>Just 4% of fund managers see hard landing</li>
<li>66% of respondents expect Hormuz bottleneck to end in next few months</li>
<li>62% of respondents target 6% on 30-year treasury yields, 20% target 4%</li>
<li>40% of respondents say second wave of inflation is biggest tail risk</li>
<li>Cash levels drop to 3.9% from 4.3%, biggest monthly drop since February 2024</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球基金經理在 5 月份的股票配置創下紀錄新高</li>
<li>僅有 4% 的基金經理認為會出現硬着陸</li>
<li>66% 的受訪者預計霍爾木茲海峽的瓶頸將在未來幾個月內結束</li>
<li>62% 的受訪者目標為 30 年期國債收益率 6%，20% 的受訪者目標為 4%</li>
<li>40% 的受訪者表示第二波通脹是最大的尾部風險</li>
<li>現金水平從 4.3% 降至 3.9%，為 2024 年 2 月以來最大月度降幅</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行全球基金經理調查（FMS）是金融界最具影響力的月度報告之一。它對大約 200 到 400 名機構基金經理（管理數千億美元對沖基金、養老基金和共同基金的人士）進行調查，以瞭解他們在市場中的定位。</p>
</div><p>It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它作為一個逆向指標非常有用。事實上，當市場定位在某一側過於極端時，激進平倉的風險會增加。市場會懲罰自滿。通常會有一個催化劑觸發反轉，或者多個因素髮出拐點的信號。</p>
</div><p>I wanted to highlight the &#34;just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing&#34; in the headline. I think that's the strongest signal of market optimism if you couple it with the &#34;record rise in equity allocations in May&#34;. There's too much optimism priced in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我想強調標題中的 “僅有 4% 的基金經理認為會出現硬着陸”。我認為這與 “5 月份股票配置創紀錄新高” 結合在一起，是市場樂觀情緒的最強信號。市場中已經定價了過多的樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>Although a second wave of inflation is now the biggest tail risk, I would say that consecutive Fed rate hikes would be even worse. If conditions in the Strait of Hormuz don't change and oil prices remain elevated, then Fed tightening into such conditions would trigger a crash in the stock market and that's when the hard landing probabilities will start to climb quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管第二波通脹現在是最大的尾部風險，但我認為連續的美聯儲加息會更糟。如果霍爾木茲海峽的情況沒有改變，油價保持高位，那麼在這種情況下美聯儲收緊政策將引發股市崩盤，這時硬着陸的概率將迅速上升。</p>
</div><p>The stock market rally in April was justified by positive expectations about a US-Iran deal and a repricing of negative growth fears, but the parabolic gains in May look &#34;irrational&#34; given the risk asymmetry now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月份股市的反彈是由於對美伊協議的積極預期和對負增長恐懼的重新定價，但考慮到現在的風險不對稱，5 月份的拋物線式上漲看起來 “非理性”。</p>
</div>

Just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing - BofA survey

Investinglive

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根據 BofA 的調查，僅有 4% 的基金經理預期經濟會出現硬着陸