<p>日本經濟在年初增長速度遠超預期，這為日本銀行（BOJ）進一步加息提供了支持，儘管由於中東衝突，前景仍然高度不確定。</p>
<p>根據內閣辦公室在週二（5 月 19 日）發佈的報告，實際國內生產總值在第一季度按年率增長了 2.1%。這一數據超出了經濟學家預測的 1.7% 的增幅，並且較上個季度向下修正後的 0.8% 的增長速度有所加快。強於預期的私人消費和貿易推動了這一加速。</p>
<p>報告顯示，經濟在 1 月至 3 月期間加速增長，此時伊朗戰爭的全面影響尚未顯現。穩健的擴張為政策制定者提供了論據，認為經濟足夠強韌，可以承受更高的借貸成本，因為中央銀行希望繼續正常化政策並應對上行的通脹風險。</p>
<p>這是政策制定者可能希望在中東衝突的間接影響開始顯現出更多對增長的壓力之前採取的舉措。</p>
<p>“政府方面可能會基於這些數據更加開放地接受進一步加息，” 日本郵政保險的高級經濟學家冢井隆之表示。“這可能為日本銀行在下次 GDP 發佈之前，甚至在 6 月或 7 月就加息留出空間。”</p>
<p>儘管增長數據樂觀，日元在發佈後對美元略微走弱。隔夜掉期基本保持不變，顯示中央銀行在 6 月加息的可能性約為 77%。</p>
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<p>這一結果恰逢首相高市早苗尋求保持公眾和投資者支持的敏感時刻。儘管她呼籲額外預算以支付緊急救助措施和重新啓動能源補貼，這將受到公眾的廣泛歡迎，但她在對這些措施的資金需求上的反覆可能會加劇投資者對其財政計劃的不確定性。</p>
<p>報告顯示，私人消費佔日本 GDP 的 50% 以上，按非年化計算增長了 0.3%，超出了 0.1% 的預測。這可能得益於政府的公用事業補貼和工資增長終於開始超過通脹。然而，自戰爭爆發以來，消費者信心一直在下降。</p>
<p>淨出口也比預期對經濟提供了更多支持。3 月份的貿易數據顯示，隨着中國需求的反彈，日本的出口增長速度加快。</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p></p>
<h3>日本在通脹擔憂上升的情況下引領全球債券市場下跌</h3>
<p>商業投資的增長放緩至 0.3% 的增幅，較上個季度有所下降。財政部 3 月份的企業調查顯示，普通利潤連續第五個季度增長。全球人工智能熱潮以及在勞動力短缺背景下對數字化的需求上升，繼續支持企業的投資意願。</p>
<p>在最近訪問日本時，美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特談到了經濟的強勁，暗示加息的時機已經成熟。他表示，日本經濟 “強勁而有韌性” 的基本面最終將反映在匯率上，並且他對日本銀行行長植田和男的工作充滿信心。</p>
<p>然而，伊朗戰爭將如何繼續影響日本經濟仍有待觀察，衝突似乎沒有結束的跡象。日本銀行已經將當前財政年度的增長預測下調至 0.5%，同時將通脹預測上調至 2.7%。</p>
<p>短期內採取行動可能比稍後採取的措施更可取，後者可能在經濟出現壓力的證據時受到批評。推遲加息也可能給日元施加壓力，政府在最近幾周已需要通過多達 640 億美元的干預來支撐日元。</p>
<p>高市採取的措施以支持因中東危機而面臨高能源價格的家庭，應該有助於在未來幾個月維持消費。但經濟學家指出，潛在的高通脹和較弱的商業信心可能會削弱增長。</p>
<p>“通過這些支持措施，日本可以避免在第二季度陷入負增長，” 冢井表示。“但通脹仍可能對實際消費和投資造成壓力。” 彭博社</p>
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日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

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南方兩倍看多日經

<p>日本經濟在第一季度增長了 2.1%，超出預期，增強了日本銀行加息的理由。儘管中東衝突帶來不確定性，強勁的私人消費和貿易仍然推動了這一增長。經濟學家建議，日本銀行可能在 6 月或 7 月就會加息，儘管通脹風險和消費者信心仍然是令人擔憂的問題。報告發布後，日元略微貶值，日本銀行已將其財政年度的增長預測下調至 0.5%，並將通脹預期上調至 2.7%</p>

<p>JAPAN’S economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本經濟在年初增長速度遠超預期，這為日本銀行（BOJ）進一步加息提供了支持，儘管由於中東衝突，前景仍然高度不確定。</p>
</div><p>Real gross domestic product expanded 2.1 per cent on an annualised basis in the first quarter, according to a Cabinet Office report on Tuesday (May 19). The reading topped economists’ forecast for a 1.7 per cent increase and marked an acceleration from a downwardly revised growth pace of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. Stronger-than-expected private consumption and trade helped power the acceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據內閣辦公室在週二（5 月 19 日）發佈的報告，實際國內生產總值在第一季度按年率增長了 2.1%。這一數據超出了經濟學家預測的 1.7% 的增幅，並且較上個季度向下修正後的 0.8% 的增長速度有所加快。強於預期的私人消費和貿易推動了這一加速。</p>
</div><p>The report shows the economy picked up steam in the January-March period, before the full impact of the war in Iran started to play out. The solid expansion gives policymakers scope to argue that the economy is resilient enough to withstand higher borrowing costs as the central bank looks to continue its normalisation of policy and address upward inflation risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告顯示，經濟在 1 月至 3 月期間加速增長，此時伊朗戰爭的全面影響尚未顯現。穩健的擴張為政策制定者提供了論據，認為經濟足夠強韌，可以承受更高的借貸成本，因為中央銀行希望繼續正常化政策並應對上行的通脹風險。</p>
</div><p>That’s a move that policymakers may want to make before the indirect impact of the Middle East conflict starts to show more signs of weighing on growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是政策制定者可能希望在中東衝突的間接影響開始顯現出更多對增長的壓力之前採取的舉措。</p>
</div><p>“The government side may become more open to accepting further rate hikes based on these figures,” said Takayuki Toji, senior economist at Japan Post Insurance. “That could leave room for the BOJ to raise rates even before the next GDP release and as early as June or July.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政府方面可能會基於這些數據更加開放地接受進一步加息，” 日本郵政保險的高級經濟學家冢井隆之表示。“這可能為日本銀行在下次 GDP 發佈之前，甚至在 6 月或 7 月就加息留出空間。”</p>
</div><p>Despite the bullish growth figures, the yen edged a fraction weaker against the US dollar after the release. Overnight swaps were largely unchanged, showing around a 77 per cent likelihood that the central bank will hike rates in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管增長數據樂觀，日元在發佈後對美元略微走弱。隔夜掉期基本保持不變，顯示中央銀行在 6 月加息的可能性約為 77%。</p>
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</div><p>The result comes at a particularly sensitive time for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as she looks to keep the public and investors on her side. While her call for an extra budget to pay for emergency relief measures and renewed energy subsidies will be largely welcomed by a public struggling to cope with inflation, her flip-flop on the need for more funding for the measures may feed into uncertainty about her fiscal plans among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一結果恰逢首相高市早苗尋求保持公眾和投資者支持的敏感時刻。儘管她呼籲額外預算以支付緊急救助措施和重新啓動能源補貼，這將受到公眾的廣泛歡迎，但她在對這些措施的資金需求上的反覆可能會加劇投資者對其財政計劃的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>The report showed that private consumption, which accounts for more than 50 per cent of Japan’s GDP, increased 0.3 per cent on a non-annualised basis, exceeding a 0.1 per cent forecast. That was likely supported by government utility subsidies and wage growth finally starting to outpace inflation. Still, consumer confidence has been waning since the war broke out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告顯示，私人消費佔日本 GDP 的 50% 以上，按非年化計算增長了 0.3%，超出了 0.1% 的預測。這可能得益於政府的公用事業補貼和工資增長終於開始超過通脹。然而，自戰爭爆發以來，消費者信心一直在下降。</p>
</div><p>Net exports also supported the economy by more than expected. March trade data showed that Japan’s exports grew at a faster clip as demand in China rebounded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨出口也比預期對經濟提供了更多支持。3 月份的貿易數據顯示，隨着中國需求的反彈，日本的出口增長速度加快。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><h3>Japan leads global bond markets lower as inflation fears rise</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本在通脹擔憂上升的情況下引領全球債券市場下跌</h3>
</div><p>Growth in business investment slowed to a 0.3 per cent gain from the previous quarter. The Finance Ministry’s March corporate survey showed a fifth consecutive quarterly increase in ordinary profits. The global artificial intelligence boom, along with rising demand for digitalisation amid labour shortages, continued to support companies’ appetite for investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商業投資的增長放緩至 0.3% 的增幅，較上個季度有所下降。財政部 3 月份的企業調查顯示，普通利潤連續第五個季度增長。全球人工智能熱潮以及在勞動力短缺背景下對數字化的需求上升，繼續支持企業的投資意願。</p>
</div><p>On his recent visit to Japan, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke of the economy’s strength, hinting that the time was ripe for interest rates to go up. He said the “strong and resilient” fundamentals of Japan’s economy will end up reflected in the exchange rate, and that he has full confidence in the job done by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近訪問日本時，美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特談到了經濟的強勁，暗示加息的時機已經成熟。他表示，日本經濟 “強勁而有韌性” 的基本面最終將反映在匯率上，並且他對日本銀行行長植田和男的工作充滿信心。</p>
</div><p>Still, it remains to be seen how the war in Iran will continue to impact the Japanese economy with no end to the conflict in sight. The BOJ has already halved its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 0.5 per cemt, while raising its inflation forecast to 2.7 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，伊朗戰爭將如何繼續影響日本經濟仍有待觀察，衝突似乎沒有結束的跡象。日本銀行已經將當前財政年度的增長預測下調至 0.5%，同時將通脹預測上調至 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>Near-term action may be preferable to a later move that might be criticised should evidence of strain on the economy emerge. Holding off on a hike may also heap pressure on a yen that the government has needed to prop up with as much as US$64 billion of intervention in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期內採取行動可能比稍後採取的措施更可取，後者可能在經濟出現壓力的證據時受到批評。推遲加息也可能給日元施加壓力，政府在最近幾周已需要通過多達 640 億美元的干預來支撐日元。</p>
</div><p>Measures that Takaichi takes to support households dealing with elevated energy prices affected by the crisis in the Middle East should help consumption hold up over the coming months. But economists point to the potential for higher inflation and weaker business confidence to dent growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市採取的措施以支持因中東危機而面臨高能源價格的家庭，應該有助於在未來幾個月維持消費。但經濟學家指出，潛在的高通脹和較弱的商業信心可能會削弱增長。</p>
</div><p>“With those kinds of support measures, Japan can avoid slipping into negative growth in the second quarter,” Toji said. “But inflation can still weigh on real consumption and investment.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通過這些支持措施，日本可以避免在第二季度陷入負增長，” 冢井表示。“但通脹仍可能對實際消費和投資造成壓力。” 彭博社</p>
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</div>

Japan’s faster economic growth offers window for BOJ rate hike

- 日本經濟年初按年率增長 2.1%，超出預期的 1.7%。  
- 增長得益於私人消費和貿易，政策制定者可能考慮加息。  
- 日元略微走弱，加息概率約為 77%。

日本經濟的快速增長為日本央行加息提供了機會