<p>本週五，凱文·沃什將在白宮舉行的儀式上宣誓就任美聯儲主席，由美國總統唐納德·特朗普主持。</p>
<p>本文的邏輯</p>
<p>I. 沃什組合：降息、縮表與金融改革</p>
<p>II. 沃什主義：美元、人工智能與國家競爭</p>
<p>III. 沃什衝擊：預期、定價與市場趨勢</p>
<h2>沃什組合：降息、縮表與金融改革</h2>
<p>沃什將採取什麼貨幣政策組合？</p>
<p>由於嚴格的監管限制了銀行創造貨幣（貸款 - 存款）的能力，市場流動性變得嚴重依賴於美聯儲（基礎貨幣）。美聯儲被迫大規模擴張其資產負債表，而銀行則被迫或主動持有大量準備金。</p>
<p>在流動性充裕的時期，美聯儲採用了利率走廊來控制短期利率，這種方法促成了一個龐大的無風險套利市場。銀行可以在貨幣市場借入廉價資金，然後通過套利將其作為準備金存入美聯儲。目前，法定準備金已降至零，但超額準備金超過 3 萬億美元。這筆鉅額資本長期閒置流通，導致資源配置效率低下，準備金需求曲線趨於平坦。</p>
<p>這削弱了美聯儲傳統的政策工具（利率），並限制了其縮減資產負債表的能力——可能引發準備金恐慌。換句話説，如果不放鬆對銀行的限制，美聯儲的資產負債表就無法正常化；如果不放鬆對銀行的限制，由資產負債表縮減引發的流動性枯竭風險就無法得到緩解。沃什的任務是通過放鬆銀行監管、降低準備金要求和消除與準備金相關的套利機會，將準備金 “擠入” 信貸市場；同時，他還旨在通過降低利率刺激市場對信貸的需求，並向市場注入流動性。因此，縮表並不等同於緊縮流動性或高利率。</p>

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>凱文·沃什將宣誓就任美聯儲主席，專注於利率下調、資產負債表縮減和金融改革的貨幣政策組合。他的做法旨在通過放寬銀行監管和刺激信貸需求來增強市場流動性，同時管理美聯儲的資產負債表以支持美元。這一策略強調 “緊縮貨幣，寬鬆信貸”，以應對當前市場挑戰</p>

<p>This Friday, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Chairman of the Federal Reserve at a ceremony held at the White House, presided over by US President Donald Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週五，凱文·沃什將在白宮舉行的儀式上宣誓就任美聯儲主席，由美國總統唐納德·特朗普主持。</p>
</div><p>This article's logic</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文的邏輯</p>
</div><p>I. The Warsh Mix: Interest Rate Cuts, Balance Sheet Reduction, and Financial Reform</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>I. 沃什組合：降息、縮表與金融改革</p>
</div><p>II. Warshism: The Dollar, AI, and National Competition</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>II. 沃什主義：美元、人工智能與國家競爭</p>
</div><p>III. The Warsh Shock: Expectations, Pricing, and Market Trends</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>III. 沃什衝擊：預期、定價與市場趨勢</p>
</div><h2>The Warsh Mix: Interest Rate Cuts, Balance Sheet Reduction, and Financial Reform</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃什組合：降息、縮表與金融改革</h2>
</div><p>What monetary policy mix will Warsh adopt?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什將採取什麼貨幣政策組合？</p>
</div><p>Due to stringent regulations restricting banks' ability to create money (loans-deposits), market liquidity has become heavily reliant on the Federal Reserve (base money). The Fed has been forced to massively expand its balance sheet, while banks have been forced or have actively held large amounts of reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於嚴格的監管限制了銀行創造貨幣（貸款 - 存款）的能力，市場流動性變得嚴重依賴於美聯儲（基礎貨幣）。美聯儲被迫大規模擴張其資產負債表，而銀行則被迫或主動持有大量準備金。</p>
</div><p>During periods of ample liquidity, the Fed has adopted an interest rate corridor to control short-term interest rates, a method that has fostered a massive risk-free arbitrage market. Banks can borrow cheap funds in the money market and then deposit them as reserves with the Fed through arbitrage. Currently, required reserves have fallen to zero, but excess reserves exceed $3 trillion. This huge amount of capital has been circulating idly for a long time, resulting in inefficient allocation and a flattening of the reserve demand curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在流動性充裕的時期，美聯儲採用了利率走廊來控制短期利率，這種方法促成了一個龐大的無風險套利市場。銀行可以在貨幣市場借入廉價資金，然後通過套利將其作為準備金存入美聯儲。目前，法定準備金已降至零，但超額準備金超過 3 萬億美元。這筆鉅額資本長期閒置流通，導致資源配置效率低下，準備金需求曲線趨於平坦。</p>
</div><p>This weakens the Fed's traditional policy tools (interest rates) and constrains its ability to shrink its balance sheet—potentially triggering a reserve panic. In other words, without easing restrictions on banks, the Fed's balance sheet cannot normalize; without easing restrictions on banks, the risk of liquidity depletion caused by balance sheet reduction cannot be mitigated. Warsh's task was to &#34;squeeze&#34; reserves into the credit market by relaxing bank regulations, lowering reserve requirements, and eliminating arbitrage opportunities related to reserves; simultaneously, he aimed to stimulate market demand for credit and inject liquidity into the market by lowering interest rates. The Warsh combination was &#34;tight money, loose credit,&#34; using the Fed's balance sheet reduction to boost the dollar, and using interest rate cuts and relaxed bank regulations to release credit and create liquidity. Therefore, balance sheet reduction does not equate to tight liquidity or high interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這削弱了美聯儲傳統的政策工具（利率），並限制了其縮減資產負債表的能力——可能引發準備金恐慌。換句話説，如果不放鬆對銀行的限制，美聯儲的資產負債表就無法正常化；如果不放鬆對銀行的限制，由資產負債表縮減引發的流動性枯竭風險就無法得到緩解。沃什的任務是通過放鬆銀行監管、降低準備金要求和消除與準備金相關的套利機會，將準備金 “擠入” 信貸市場；同時，他還旨在通過降低利率刺激市場對信貸的需求，並向市場注入流動性。因此，縮表並不等同於緊縮流動性或高利率。</p>
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沃什衝擊：美國美元、美國股票和美國債券接下來會如何發展？