<p>5 月 19 日：週二，美元上漲，投資者在對中東和平協議的謹慎希望與對美聯儲可能加息以遏制能源驅動的通脹的擔憂之間進行權衡。美國總統唐納德·特朗普週一表示，現在達成限制伊朗核計劃協議的&#34;非常好機會&#34;。在伊朗有效關閉霍爾木茲海峽後，油價上漲，美元在 3 月份大幅上漲，這對依賴石油的經濟體如日本和歐元區造成壓力，同時增加了對美元的避險需求。週二，在特朗普的言論後，油價下跌了 2%。滙豐銀行全球外匯研究負責人保羅·麥克爾表示：&#34;美元未能回升至 3 月份的水平有其原因。&#34;他補充道：&#34;值得注意的是，全球風險情緒強勁恢復；美元 OIS（隔夜指數掉期）市場的緊張局勢仍然存在，未能定價激進的美聯儲加息週期；而月度全球增長動能仍然積極。&#34;與此同時，投資者現在預計美聯儲在 12 月加息的可能性接近 48.5%，而根據 CME FedWatch 工具，預計美聯儲在 6 月的下一次會議上維持當前利率的可能性為 98.8%。&#34;即使美聯儲在 6 月發出將採取中性偏向的信號，也可能不足以穩定通脹預期和長期美國國債收益率，&#34;麥誇裏集團全球外匯和利率策略師蒂埃裏·維茲曼表示。&#34;在 6 月 6 日之前的一小段美聯儲講話中，將有機會使美聯儲的言辭明顯轉向 ‘鷹派’。&#34;美元指數衡量美元對一籃子六種貨幣的強度，週一在恐慌緩解後上漲 0.2%，至 99.18，結束了五天的連勝。歐元下跌 0.2%，至 1.1633 美元。日元接近干預區間：美元對日元上漲 0.15%，至 159.10 日元，此前政府數據顯示日本經濟在第一季度年化增長 2.1%，支持市場對日本央行在 6 月加息的預期。日本財政大臣片山薩津基週一對記者表示，日本準備對過度的外匯波動採取行動，同時確保任何支持日元和拋售美元的干預方式不會推高美國國債收益率。投資者一直在關注進一步支持日元的干預跡象，日元略強於日本官員上個月首次進入市場近兩年來的水平。澳元在 5 月 5 日澳大利亞儲備銀行會議紀要發佈後下跌 0.5%，至 0.71345 美元。由於與澳元的聯動，新西蘭元下跌 0.4%，至 0.5854 美元。美元在離岸交易中對人民幣上漲 0.1%，至 6.8031 元。</p>

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

<p>美國美元上漲，因為投資者在對中東和平協議的希望與對美聯儲加息以應對通脹的擔憂之間進行權衡。特朗普總統表示與伊朗達成協議的機會很大，這影響了油價和對美元的避險需求。目前市場預期顯示，12 月份加息的概率為 48.5%，而 6 月份維持利率不變的可能性為 98.8%。美元指數上漲 0.2%，至 99.18，而歐元和澳大利亞元對美元則下跌</p>

<p>May 19 : The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday as investors balanced cautious hopes for a Middle East peace deal against concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise rates to curb energy-driven inflation. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday there was now a &#34;very good chance&#34; of reaching a deal limiting Iran's nuclear program. The dollar jumped in March after Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, weighing on oil-dependent economies such as Japan and the euro area while increasing safe-haven demand for the greenback. Oil prices fell 2 per cent on Tuesday after Trump's remarks. &#34;There are reasons why the dollar has not strengthened back to the levels seen in March,” Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC, said. &#34;Notably, global risk sentiment has recovered strongly; tension remains in USD OIS (overnight index swaps) markets which have stopped short of pricing an aggressive Fed hiking cycle; and monthly global growth momentum is still positive,&#34; he added. At the same time, investors are now pricing in almost a 48.5 per cent chance that the Fed could raise rates in December, and a 98.8 per cent chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. &#34;Even if the Fed moves to signal that it will adopt a neutral bias in June, it may not be enough to stabilize inflation expectations and long-term U.S. Treasury yields,&#34; said Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Group’s global foreign exchange and rates strategist. &#34;An opportunity to change the Fed's rhetoric decidedly toward 'hawkish' will come with the small flurry of Fed speeches, between now and June 6,&#34; he added. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.2 per cent at 99.18, after snapping a five-day winning streak on Monday as fears eased of an escalation in the war. The euro was down 0.2 per cent at $1.1633. YEN NEAR INTERVENTION ZONE Against the yen, the U.S. dollar was up 0.15 per cent at 159.10 yen after government data showed on Tuesday that Japan's economy grew by an annualised 2.1 per cent in the first quarter, supporting expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters on Monday that Japan stands ready to act against excessive foreign exchange volatility, while ensuring that any intervention to support the yen and sell dollars is conducted in a way that avoids pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. Investors have been on watch for further signs of intervention to support the yen, which is a little stronger than it was before Japanese officials last month began their first foray into the market in almost two years. The Australian dollar was down 0.5 per cent at $0.71345 after the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting on May 5. The kiwi slipped 0.4 per cent to $0.5854 in sympathy with the Aussie. Against the Chinese yuan, the U.S. dollar was up 0.1 per cent at 6.8031 yuan in offshore trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月 19 日：週二，美元上漲，投資者在對中東和平協議的謹慎希望與對美聯儲可能加息以遏制能源驅動的通脹的擔憂之間進行權衡。美國總統唐納德·特朗普週一表示，現在達成限制伊朗核計劃協議的&#34;非常好機會&#34;。在伊朗有效關閉霍爾木茲海峽後，油價上漲，美元在 3 月份大幅上漲，這對依賴石油的經濟體如日本和歐元區造成壓力，同時增加了對美元的避險需求。週二，在特朗普的言論後，油價下跌了 2%。滙豐銀行全球外匯研究負責人保羅·麥克爾表示：&#34;美元未能回升至 3 月份的水平有其原因。&#34;他補充道：&#34;值得注意的是，全球風險情緒強勁恢復；美元 OIS（隔夜指數掉期）市場的緊張局勢仍然存在，未能定價激進的美聯儲加息週期；而月度全球增長動能仍然積極。&#34;與此同時，投資者現在預計美聯儲在 12 月加息的可能性接近 48.5%，而根據 CME FedWatch 工具，預計美聯儲在 6 月的下一次會議上維持當前利率的可能性為 98.8%。&#34;即使美聯儲在 6 月發出將採取中性偏向的信號，也可能不足以穩定通脹預期和長期美國國債收益率，&#34;麥誇裏集團全球外匯和利率策略師蒂埃裏·維茲曼表示。&#34;在 6 月 6 日之前的一小段美聯儲講話中，將有機會使美聯儲的言辭明顯轉向 ‘鷹派’。&#34;美元指數衡量美元對一籃子六種貨幣的強度，週一在恐慌緩解後上漲 0.2%，至 99.18，結束了五天的連勝。歐元下跌 0.2%，至 1.1633 美元。日元接近干預區間：美元對日元上漲 0.15%，至 159.10 日元，此前政府數據顯示日本經濟在第一季度年化增長 2.1%，支持市場對日本央行在 6 月加息的預期。日本財政大臣片山薩津基週一對記者表示，日本準備對過度的外匯波動採取行動，同時確保任何支持日元和拋售美元的干預方式不會推高美國國債收益率。投資者一直在關注進一步支持日元的干預跡象，日元略強於日本官員上個月首次進入市場近兩年來的水平。澳元在 5 月 5 日澳大利亞儲備銀行會議紀要發佈後下跌 0.5%，至 0.71345 美元。由於與澳元的聯動，新西蘭元下跌 0.4%，至 0.5854 美元。美元在離岸交易中對人民幣上漲 0.1%，至 6.8031 元。</p>
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Dollar edges up as investors weigh Iran peace hopes against Fed rate outlook

滙豐

美元小幅上漲，投資者在伊朗和平希望與美聯儲利率前景之間進行權衡