<h2>基本面概述</h2>
<p>儘管美國與伊朗之間的僵局持續以及霍爾木茲海峽關閉，納斯達克仍在不斷創下新高。四月份的反彈得益於美國與伊朗緊張局勢的緩解、對外交解決方案的持續推動，而不是另一場全面戰爭，以及對最終達成協議的預期。</p>
<p>現在，我們可能正接近一個拐點，從不對稱的角度來看，短期基本面正在轉向看跌。</p>
<p>事實上，支持股市的並不僅僅是美國與伊朗的降温，還有美聯儲的寬鬆傾向。這導致金融條件的放鬆，即使沒有降息，實際收益率也下降了。</p>
<p>現在面臨兩個主要風險：戰爭的重新爆發和美聯儲的鷹派立場。昨天，我們收到伊朗的報道，稱美國將提議暫時豁免制裁。這在短期內幫助了股市，但在美國官員否認這些報道後，漲幅迅速回落。</p>
<p>此外，特朗普在 Truth Social 上表示，針對伊朗的大規模軍事打擊因海灣領導人的請求而暫停，以便繼續進行和平談判。他補充説，現在達成協議的 “機會很大”。儘管特朗普發佈了這一消息，市場卻未能反彈。這可能是疲軟的信號。</p>
<p>如果我們確實達成官方解決方案，霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放可能會在短期內給納斯達克帶來另一個推動，因為油價可能會下降，降息的預期將增加。然而，之後的關注將迅速轉回美聯儲和經濟數據。</p>
<p>隨着戰爭的結束和霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放，經濟活動的增加可能會使通脹在更長時間內保持高位，並最終需要加息。</p>
<p>今天，我們收到了美國銀行的基金經理調查，其中 “僅有 4% 的基金經理認為未來會出現硬着陸”。我認為，如果將其與 “五月份股票配置的創紀錄上升” 結合起來，這發出了過於樂觀的強烈信號。市場中已經定價了太多的好消息。</p>
<p>儘管第二波通脹現在是最大的尾部風險，但連續的美聯儲加息將更糟。如果霍爾木茲海峽的情況沒有改變，油價保持高位，那麼在這種情況下美聯儲收緊政策將引發股市崩盤，而這時硬着陸的概率將迅速上升。</p>
<h2>納斯達克技術分析 – 日線圖</h2>
<p>在日線圖上，我們可以看到強勁的看漲動能終於停滯。納斯達克現在在 28,800 水平上方整合。從風險管理的角度來看，買家顯然在 26,400 水平附近有更好的風險回報設置，但我們可能需要更鷹派的美聯儲或美國與伊朗局勢的升級來觸發如此大的修正。</p>
<h2>納斯達克技術分析 – 4 小時圖</h2>
<p>在 4 小時圖上，我們可以看到價格突破了自這場驚人反彈開始以來定義看漲動能的上升趨勢線。這一整合看起來像是一個頭肩形態，目標接近 27,600 水平。我們可以預期買家將在 28,800 頸線附近介入，並在其下方設定明確的風險，以繼續推動新高，而賣家則會尋找突破以便在 27,600 水平進行回調。</p>
<h2>納斯達克技術分析 – 1 小時圖</h2>
<p>在 1 小時圖上，我們有一條小的下行趨勢線，定義了當前對 28,800 支撐的回調。如果我們在支撐位附近反彈，我們可以預期賣家會依賴趨勢線，並在其上方設定明確的風險，以便在支撐位回落並瞄準突破。另一方面，買家將尋找向上突破，以增加對新紀錄高點的看漲押注。紅線定義了今天的平均日內波動範圍。</p>
<h2>即將到來的催化劑</h2>
<p>今天，我們有美聯儲的沃勒發言。明天，我們將發佈 FOMC 會議紀要。週四，我們將獲得最新的美國失業救濟申請數據和美國閃電 PMI。</p>

納斯達克綜合指數

納斯達克綜合指數 ETF - Fidelity

納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克 100 平均加權指數 ETF - First Trust

2 倍做多納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - ProShares

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>納斯達克近期的上漲勢頭正在減弱，因為短期基本面在美國與伊朗局勢的風險以及美聯儲可能採取鷹派立場的影響下變得悲觀。儘管之前因緊張局勢緩解和美聯儲態度友好而獲得的漲幅，市場樂觀情緒可能過於樂觀。技術分析顯示，市場在 28,800 附近整固，可能會回調至 27,600。即將發佈的經濟數據和美聯儲的溝通可能會影響市場方向</p>

<h2>FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本面概述</h2>
</div><p>The Nasdaq has been surging into new record highs despite the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The rally in April was justified by easing US-Iran tensions, the constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war and expectations that a deal would be reached eventually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美國與伊朗之間的僵局持續以及霍爾木茲海峽關閉，納斯達克仍在不斷創下新高。四月份的反彈得益於美國與伊朗緊張局勢的緩解、對外交解決方案的持續推動，而不是另一場全面戰爭，以及對最終達成協議的預期。</p>
</div><p>Now, we are likely approaching an inflection point as from an asymmetric point of view, the near-term fundamentals are turning bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，我們可能正接近一個拐點，從不對稱的角度來看，短期基本面正在轉向看跌。</p>
</div><p>In fact, it wasn’t just the US-Iran de-escalation supporting the stock market, but also the Federal Reserve’s easing bias. This has led to an easing in financial conditions even without rate cuts as real yields fell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，支持股市的並不僅僅是美國與伊朗的降温，還有美聯儲的寬鬆傾向。這導致金融條件的放鬆，即使沒有降息，實際收益率也下降了。</p>
</div><p>Now there are two main risks ahead: the restart of the war and a hawkish Fed. Yesterday, we had Iranian reports saying that the US would propose a temporary waiver to sanctions. That helped stocks for a bit, but the gains were quickly pared after US officials denied the reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在面臨兩個主要風險：戰爭的重新爆發和美聯儲的鷹派立場。昨天，我們收到伊朗的報道，稱美國將提議暫時豁免制裁。這在短期內幫助了股市，但在美國官員否認這些報道後，漲幅迅速回落。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Trump said on Truth Social that a large-scale military strike against Iran got suspended at the request of Gulf leaders to allow for peace talks to continue. He added that there is a &#34;good chance&#34; of a deal now. Despite Trump’s post, the market failed to rally. This might be a signal of exhaustion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特朗普在 Truth Social 上表示，針對伊朗的大規模軍事打擊因海灣領導人的請求而暫停，以便繼續進行和平談判。他補充説，現在達成協議的 “機會很大”。儘管特朗普發佈了這一消息，市場卻未能反彈。這可能是疲軟的信號。</p>
</div><p>If we do get an official resolution, the reopening of the Strait could give the Nasdaq another boost in the short-term as oil prices will likely fall and rate cut bets will increase. After that though, the focus will quickly turn back to the Fed and the economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我們確實達成官方解決方案，霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放可能會在短期內給納斯達克帶來另一個推動，因為油價可能會下降，降息的預期將增加。然而，之後的關注將迅速轉回美聯儲和經濟數據。</p>
</div><p>With the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the increase in economic activity could keep inflation higher for longer and eventually require rate hikes anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着戰爭的結束和霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放，經濟活動的增加可能會使通脹在更長時間內保持高位，並最終需要加息。</p>
</div><p>Today, we got the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey where “just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing” ahead. I think that's the strongest signal of too much optimism if you couple it with the &#34;record rise in equity allocations in May&#34;. There's too much good news priced into the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我們收到了美國銀行的基金經理調查，其中 “僅有 4% 的基金經理認為未來會出現硬着陸”。我認為，如果將其與 “五月份股票配置的創紀錄上升” 結合起來，這發出了過於樂觀的強烈信號。市場中已經定價了太多的好消息。</p>
</div><p>Although a second wave of inflation is now the biggest tail risk, consecutive Fed rate hikes would be even worse. If conditions in the Strait of Hormuz don't change and oil prices remain elevated, then Fed tightening into such conditions would trigger a crash in the stock market and that's when the hard landing probabilities will start to climb quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管第二波通脹現在是最大的尾部風險，但連續的美聯儲加息將更糟。如果霍爾木茲海峽的情況沒有改變，油價保持高位，那麼在這種情況下美聯儲收緊政策將引發股市崩盤，而這時硬着陸的概率將迅速上升。</p>
</div><h2>NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>納斯達克技術分析 – 日線圖</h2>
</div><p>On the daily chart, we can see the strong bullish momentum has finally stalled. The Nasdaq is now consolidating above the 28,800 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would obviously have a much better risk to reward setup around the 26,400 level but we will likely need a more hawkish Fed or an escalation on the US-Iran front to trigger such a major correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日線圖上，我們可以看到強勁的看漲動能終於停滯。納斯達克現在在 28,800 水平上方整合。從風險管理的角度來看，買家顯然在 26,400 水平附近有更好的風險回報設置，但我們可能需要更鷹派的美聯儲或美國與伊朗局勢的升級來觸發如此大的修正。</p>
</div><h2>NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>納斯達克技術分析 – 4 小時圖</h2>
</div><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum since the start of this incredible rally. This consolidation looks like a head and shoulders pattern with the target near the 27,600 level. We can expect the buyers to step in around the 28,800 neckline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to pile in for a pullback into the 27,600 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 小時圖上，我們可以看到價格突破了自這場驚人反彈開始以來定義看漲動能的上升趨勢線。這一整合看起來像是一個頭肩形態，目標接近 27,600 水平。我們可以預期買家將在 28,800 頸線附近介入，並在其下方設定明確的風險，以繼續推動新高，而賣家則會尋找突破以便在 27,600 水平進行回調。</p>
</div><h2>NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>納斯達克技術分析 – 1 小時圖</h2>
</div><p>On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback into the 28,800 support. If we get a bounce around the support, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the support targeting a breakout. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The red lines define average daily range for today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1 小時圖上，我們有一條小的下行趨勢線，定義了當前對 28,800 支撐的回調。如果我們在支撐位附近反彈，我們可以預期賣家會依賴趨勢線，並在其上方設定明確的風險，以便在支撐位回落並瞄準突破。另一方面，買家將尋找向上突破，以增加對新紀錄高點的看漲押注。紅線定義了今天的平均日內波動範圍。</p>
</div><h2>UPCOMING CATALYSTS</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>即將到來的催化劑</h2>
</div><p>Today, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US Flash PMIs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我們有美聯儲的沃勒發言。明天，我們將發佈 FOMC 會議紀要。週四，我們將獲得最新的美國失業救濟申請數據和美國閃電 PMI。</p>
</div>

Nasdaq's bullish momentum stalls as downside risks mount: pause or start of a correction?

Investinglive

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隨着下行風險的增加，納斯達克的看漲勢頭是否會停滯：這是暫時的停頓還是修正的開始？