<p>作者：Tomi Kilgore</p>
<p>與 “爆炸性” 突破的替代方案可能是收益率再上升一點，足以導致經濟惡化並降低收益率。這更好嗎？</p>
<p>這個 “旗形” 圖表模式警告稱，國債收益率可能會大幅上升。</p>
<p>一代投資者只知道一件事：長期利率——如果你等待，收益率會降低。現在有理由擔心，情況可能正好相反。</p>
<p>有許多圖表被技術分析師稱為當前市場環境中最令人擔憂的，但有一個圖表可能是最糟糕的——基準 10 年期國債收益率的非常長期圖表 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y。</p>
<p>這個圖表的關鍵在於過去幾年形成的 “旗形” 整合模式，這表明收益率可能會在更長時間內大幅上升。</p>
<p>這很重要，因為 10 年期收益率影響着一切的利率，從大型科技公司發行的債券收益率以支付人工智能建設，到抵押貸款、汽車貸款和信用卡的利率。</p>
<p>閲讀：債券市場對美聯儲發出警告：儘快認真對待通脹和潛在的加息。</p>
<p>“這種風險非常真實，我們可能會在短期內繼續看到更高的利率，甚至可能是大幅更高的利率，” ICAP 技術分析師 Brian LaRose 在網絡研討會上表示。</p>
<p>10 年期收益率從 2020 年因 COVID 而導致的約 0.5% 的低點飆升至 2023 年 10 月中旬接近 5% 的峯值。從那時起，收益率一直在收斂，形成一個看起來像旗形的窄幅區間，出現了更低的高點和更高的低點。</p>
<p>旗形被視為延續模式，這意味着圖表中的工具傾向於沿着之前的趨勢方向突破。</p>
<p>對於 10 年期收益率來説，這意味着突破將朝着上升的 “旗杆” 方向進行。</p>
<p>對於 ICAP 的 LaRose 來説，牛市的情況——如果旗形按照通常的方式完成，並在下降的頂部趨勢線之上突破——是收益率不會止步於 2023 年 10 月的高點約 5%，甚至略高於 5.5%。</p>
<p>另請閲讀：隨着 Kevin Warsh 接任美聯儲新主席，債券市場已經開始加息。</p>
<p>他認為存在爆炸性上升的風險，範圍在 6.25% 到 6.8% 之間，甚至可能高達 8.1% 到 8.6%。他稱之為 “公交車輪子脱落” 的情景。</p>
<p>LaRose 對這種情景的擔憂在於，過去這只是一個技術觀點，但當前的模式伴隨着一個 “重大催化劑”——由於中東衝突導致的能源價格上漲。</p>
<p>而且，收益率的上升不僅僅是美國現象，全球各國的政府債券收益率，如英國國債、德國國債和日本國債，已經上漲至多年高點。</p>
<p>與此同時，美國 10 年期圖表的真正擔憂不僅僅是旗形模式，而是當你放大視角，從代際的角度來看。</p>
<p>許多圖表觀察者認為，旗形往往出現在趨勢的中間。因此，如果模式像往常一樣發展，圖表觀察者通常會提出一個 “測量移動” 目標，這意味着他們通過將旗杆的長度加到突破點來估計潛在的移動。</p>
<p>10 年期圖表顯示，旗杆的高度約為 4.5 個百分點。如果將其加到突破點，可能在未來一週達到 4.60% 的區域，測量移動目標將是 9.1%。</p>
<p>如果你計算旗杆到底部旗形的長度，正如一些技術分析師所做的，向上的目標將約為 7.4%。</p>
<p>無論如何，結果都相當可怕，因為隨着公司借貸成本的上升，它們生產的成本也會相應上升以彌補差額。</p>
<p>還有另一種潛在的情景，可能以不同的方式令人擔憂。</p>
<p>雖然 LaRose 認為短期內風險在於更高的利率，但他説他 “並不一定相信” 存在決定性和爆炸性的向上突破的觀點。</p>
<p>他認為 10 年期國債收益率可能會略微上升，達到 5% 到 5.5% 的範圍。但在這個水平上，經濟可能仍會受到足夠的傷害，以至於利率最終朝相反方向發展。</p>
<p>基本上，要小心你所希望的。</p>
<p>“市場被推向極端，經濟條件迅速惡化，因此我們會經歷經濟收縮，” LaRose 説。“我們會經歷動盪，股市大幅回落，利率也會因此大幅降低。”</p>
<p>-Tomi Kilgore</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>05-19-26 0651ET</p>

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<p>一項新的分析警告稱，國債收益率可能會顯著上升，這可能導致經濟惡化。'三角旗'圖表模式表明，突破可能會將 10 年期收益率推高至超過 5%，甚至可能達到 6.25% 至 8.6%。利率的上升可能會增加公司的借貸成本，從而影響生產成本。儘管一些分析師預測收益率會略有上升，但他們警告稱，經濟狀況可能會惡化，導致未來出現收縮和利率降低</p>

<p>By Tomi Kilgore</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Tomi Kilgore</p>
</div><p>The alternative to an 'explosive' breakout could be that yields rise a little more, enough to cause economic deterioration and lower yields. Is that better?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 “爆炸性” 突破的替代方案可能是收益率再上升一點，足以導致經濟惡化並降低收益率。這更好嗎？</p>
</div><p>This &#34;pennant&#34; chart pattern warns that Treasury yields could be headed much higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個 “旗形” 圖表模式警告稱，國債收益率可能會大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>A generation of investors have known only one thing about long-term interest rates - if you wait, yields will go lower. There's now reason to worry that the opposite may be true.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一代投資者只知道一件事：長期利率——如果你等待，收益率會降低。現在有理由擔心，情況可能正好相反。</p>
</div><p>There are many charts that technicians have claimed to be the most worrisome in the current market environment, but there's one that likely takes the cake - a very long-term chart of the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有許多圖表被技術分析師稱為當前市場環境中最令人擔憂的，但有一個圖表可能是最糟糕的——基準 10 年期國債收益率的非常長期圖表 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y。</p>
</div><p>The key to this chart is what is known as a &#34;pennant&#34; consolidation pattern that has formed over the past few years, that suggests yields could be headed much higher for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個圖表的關鍵在於過去幾年形成的 “旗形” 整合模式，這表明收益率可能會在更長時間內大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>The reason that matters is that the 10-year yield influences rates on everything, from yields on bonds issued by Big Tech companies to pay for the artificial-intelligence buildout, to rates on mortgages, car loans and credit cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很重要，因為 10 年期收益率影響着一切的利率，從大型科技公司發行的債券收益率以支付人工智能建設，到抵押貸款、汽車貸款和信用卡的利率。</p>
</div><p>Read: The bond market has a warning for the Fed: Get serious about inflation and potential rate hikes ASAP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：債券市場對美聯儲發出警告：儘快認真對待通脹和潛在的加息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This risk is very real that we continue to see higher rates here, at least over the short run, perhaps even substantially higher rates,&#34; said Brian LaRose, technical analyst at ICAP Technical Analysis, in a webcast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這種風險非常真實，我們可能會在短期內繼續看到更高的利率，甚至可能是大幅更高的利率，” ICAP 技術分析師 Brian LaRose 在網絡研討會上表示。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year yield had soared off the COVID-induced bottom of around 0.5% in 2020 to a peak a touch shy of 5% in mid-October 2023. The yield has been consolidating with a narrowing range that looks like a pennant, with lower highs and higher lows, since then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期收益率從 2020 年因 COVID 而導致的約 0.5% 的低點飆升至 2023 年 10 月中旬接近 5% 的峯值。從那時起，收益率一直在收斂，形成一個看起來像旗形的窄幅區間，出現了更低的高點和更高的低點。</p>
</div><p>Pennants are viewed as continuation patterns, which means the charted instrument tends to break out in the direction of the trend that preceded it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>旗形被視為延續模式，這意味着圖表中的工具傾向於沿着之前的趨勢方向突破。</p>
</div><p>For the 10-year yield, that means the breakout would come in the direction of the rising &#34;flagpole.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 10 年期收益率來説，這意味着突破將朝着上升的 “旗杆” 方向進行。</p>
</div><p>For ICAP's LaRose, the bull case - if the pennant is completed in usual fashion with a breakout above the falling top trendline - is that the yield doesn't stop at the October 2023 high around 5%, or even a little higher at 5.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 ICAP 的 LaRose 來説，牛市的情況——如果旗形按照通常的方式完成，並在下降的頂部趨勢線之上突破——是收益率不會止步於 2023 年 10 月的高點約 5%，甚至略高於 5.5%。</p>
</div><p>Also read: The bond market is already hiking rates as Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed's new chair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：隨着 Kevin Warsh 接任美聯儲新主席，債券市場已經開始加息。</p>
</div><p>He believes there's a risk of an explosive move higher, to a range of 6.25% to 6.8%, and perhaps as high as 8.1% to 8.6%. He would call that the &#34;wheels come off the bus&#34; scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他認為存在爆炸性上升的風險，範圍在 6.25% 到 6.8% 之間，甚至可能高達 8.1% 到 8.6%。他稱之為 “公交車輪子脱落” 的情景。</p>
</div><p>What worries LaRose about this scenario was that in the past it would have been just a technical view, but the current pattern has developed along with a &#34;major catalyst&#34; - rising energy prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LaRose 對這種情景的擔憂在於，過去這只是一個技術觀點，但當前的模式伴隨着一個 “重大催化劑”——由於中東衝突導致的能源價格上漲。</p>
</div><p>And the yield rise isn't just a U.S. phenomenon, as government bond yields around the world, such as on the U.K.'s gilts, Germany's bunds and Japan's JGBs, have run up to multi-year highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，收益率的上升不僅僅是美國現象，全球各國的政府債券收益率，如英國國債、德國國債和日本國債，已經上漲至多年高點。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the real worry about the U.S. 10-year chart isn't just the pennant pattern, it comes when you zoom way out, to put it in a generational perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美國 10 年期圖表的真正擔憂不僅僅是旗形模式，而是當你放大視角，從代際的角度來看。</p>
</div><p>Many chart watchers believe pennants tend to appear around the middle of a trend. So as if the pattern plays out as usual, chart watchers often present a &#34;measured move&#34; target, meaning they estimate the potential move by adding the length of the flagpole to the point of the breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多圖表觀察者認為，旗形往往出現在趨勢的中間。因此，如果模式像往常一樣發展，圖表觀察者通常會提出一個 “測量移動” 目標，這意味着他們通過將旗杆的長度加到突破點來估計潛在的移動。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year chart shows the flagpole being about 4.5 percentage points in height. If that is added to the point of the breakout, which could be in the area of 4.60% in the coming week, the measured move target would be 9.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期圖表顯示，旗杆的高度約為 4.5 個百分點。如果將其加到突破點，可能在未來一週達到 4.60% 的區域，測量移動目標將是 9.1%。</p>
</div><p>If you calculate the length of the flagpole to the bottom pennant, as some technicians do, the upside target would be about 7.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你計算旗杆到底部旗形的長度，正如一些技術分析師所做的，向上的目標將約為 7.4%。</p>
</div><p>Either way, the outcome would be pretty scary, because as borrowing costs for companies rise, the costs for what they produce will also rise to make up the difference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，結果都相當可怕，因為隨着公司借貸成本的上升，它們生產的成本也會相應上升以彌補差額。</p>
</div><p>There is another potential scenario that could be scary in a different way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有另一種潛在的情景，可能以不同的方式令人擔憂。</p>
</div><p>While LaRose believes the risk in the short term is for higher rates, he said he's &#34;not necessarily sold&#34; on the notion that there's a decisive and explosive breakout to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 LaRose 認為短期內風險在於更高的利率，但他説他 “並不一定相信” 存在決定性和爆炸性的向上突破的觀點。</p>
</div><p>He believes the 10-year Treasury yield could rise slightly, into the 5% to 5.5% range. But at that level, the economy could still be hurt enough that rates end up heading in the opposite direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他認為 10 年期國債收益率可能會略微上升，達到 5% 到 5.5% 的範圍。但在這個水平上，經濟可能仍會受到足夠的傷害，以至於利率最終朝相反方向發展。</p>
</div><p>Basically, be careful what you wish for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本上，要小心你所希望的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Market gets pushed to extremes, economic conditions deteriorate rapidly, as a result we get economic contraction,&#34; LaRose said. &#34;We get turmoil, we get equity markets pulling back significantly, we get rates reduced significantly as a result.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市場被推向極端，經濟條件迅速惡化，因此我們會經歷經濟收縮，” LaRose 説。“我們會經歷動盪，股市大幅回落，利率也會因此大幅降低。”</p>
</div><p>-Tomi Kilgore</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Tomi Kilgore</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0651ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0651ET</p>
</div>

這些圖表向下一代發出警告：一個更高利率的新時代可能即將來臨