<p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>Evercore 表示 “低槓桿領導者” 是關鍵</p>
<p>Monster Beverage 是一個 “低槓桿” 領導者，Evercore 表示，它可能為投資者提供在可能即將到來的債券和石油風暴中的避風港。</p>
<p>對更高債券收益率和通貨膨脹的擔憂最近對標普 500 造成了影響，該指數可能在週二迎來連續第三個下跌交易日。雖然這還不是令人擔憂的趨勢，但擔憂正在上升。</p>
<p>例如，巴克萊警告稱，湧入股票的鉅額資金可能會同樣迅速地流出。與此同時，Evercore 的今日觀點指出，油價和債券收益率上升帶來了明顯威脅，警告投資者在進入這個可能顛簸的時期時保護措施不足。</p>
<p>Evercore ISI 團隊的高級董事朱利安·埃曼紐爾表示：“自 3 月 30 日低點以來，廣泛的股市反彈令人印象深刻，決定性地創造了自 1982 年牛市超級週期開始以來罕見的動量新紀錄。”</p>
<p>他們認為 “長期上漲潛力” 依然存在，因為即使在 3 月市場下滑時，防禦性股票表現不佳，意味着投資者在應對這種回調時表現得相對從容。4 月的強勁反彈也與歷史上類似的反彈相比較，通常會隨之而來更多的漲幅。</p>
<p>然而，Evercore 表示：“油價和收益率的上升帶來了短期障礙。” 創始人羅傑·阿爾特曼在前一天警告稱，石油市場正達到一個 “臨界點”，可能將價格推高至每桶 150 美元，並對經濟造成衝擊。</p>
<p>埃曼紐爾及其同事表示，只要 WTI 原油價格保持在每桶 100 美元以上，10 年期收益率超過 4.5%，股票的風險就會不斷增加。如果油價在 7 月 4 日假期之前沒有緩解，他們認為消費者和經濟面臨特別風險。</p>
<p>目前特別危險的是投資者缺乏保護。在 3 月，投資者通過股票指數看跌期權購買了保護——在特定價格和特定日期出售的權利。因此，這種對下跌的保護使他們避免了在恐慌中拋售股票，而隨後的保護撤回為 4 月的反彈提供了動力。</p>
<p>由於投資者保護措施有所降低，Evercore 表示，他們現在建議 “減緩對低防禦性股票的投資”——例如表現強勁的科技股。相反，他們保持對低槓桿股票的長期傾斜，這些股票沒有高債務，在利率上升時不會造成擔憂。後者在今年市場的起伏中表現出相對一致的 “全氣候超越”。</p>
<p>低槓桿股票還提供了 “對潛在重演互聯網泡沫時代領導地位的曝光”，因為這一因素在互聯網泡沫高峰期表現突出，聰明的投資者開始購買財務狀況較好的公司。</p>
<p>Evercore 表示，他們已更新篩選條件，以尋找在羅素 3000 RUA 中低槓桿股票的潛在超越者，基於銷售和每股收益修正，以及市值超過 5 億美元的公司。他們還掃描了羅素 3000 中類似規模的高債務和較差修正的公司。</p>
<p>以下是他們偏好的 “低槓桿領導者”：</p>
<p>來源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<p>以下是他們標記的一些 “低槓桿滯後者”：</p>
<p>來源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<p>市場動態</p>
<p>美國股指期貨（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）正在下跌，10 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 上升至 4.609%。布倫特原油（BRN00）下跌近 2%。</p>
<p>市場熱議</p>
<p>家得寶（HD）保持全年展望不變，股價上漲。</p>
<p>谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOGL）與黑石（BX）聯手創建一家人工智能雲公司，後者投資 50 億美元。</p>
<p>特朗普總統在 Truth Social 上表示，應海灣盟友的請求，他取消了原定於週二對伊朗的打擊，以便為 “嚴肅談判” 留出時間。</p>
<p>4 月份待售房屋數據將在上午 10 點公佈。在此之前，美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒將在上午 8 點發言。</p>
<p>網絡精選</p>
<p>特朗普的國税局和解包括一個 18 億美元的 “反武器化” 基金，供盟友使用。以下是可能獲得資金的人。</p>
<p>神秘的加密法官解決了多市場爭議</p>
<p>埃博拉在剛果肆虐數週，才有人發出警報</p>
<p>圖表</p>
<p>美國銀行 5 月份的全球基金經理調查顯示，股票配置創下紀錄增長，現金水平大幅下降，主要受益於盈利樂觀和對美聯儲降息的預期。請注意，近期美聯儲面臨的壓力正在增加，因對油價上漲的通脹擔憂。美國銀行警告稱，鑑於幾乎所有空頭現在都已重返股市，6 月初可能 “適合獲利了結”。</p>
<p>熱門股票</p>
<p>截至上午 6 點，MarketWatch 上搜索最多的股票代碼如下：</p>
<p>隨機閲讀</p>
<p>紅牌，美國足球迷的安慰披薩。</p>
<p>皇家騎警抓住了偷熱狗的狐狸。</p>
<p>挪威男孩挖掘出 1300 年前的維京前劍。</p>
<p>超越頭條</p>
<p>MarketWatch 推薦：這是最被低估的退休儲蓄舉措，RBC 財富管理退休解決方案負責人表示。</p>
<p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>本內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞通訊和華爾街日報出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>05-19-26 0704ET</p>

標普 500 指數

怪物飲料

日常消費品 ETF - SPDR

標普 500 指數股票型基金

食品飲料 ETF - PowerShares

日常消費品 ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 ETF - iShares

美國消費品 ETF - iShares

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

納斯達克食品飲料 ETF - First Trust

<p>Evercore 警告投資者，隨着油價和債券收益率的上升，可能面臨潛在風險，建議轉向像怪物飲料這樣的 “低槓桿領導者” 以尋求保護。隨着對通脹和市場穩定性的擔憂加劇，標普 500 指數面臨壓力。由於投資者保護減少，Evercore 提醒對防禦性股票保持謹慎，並強調低負債公司在應對即將到來的市場挑戰中的重要性</p>

<p>By Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>Evercore says 'low leverage leaders' are key</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 表示 “低槓桿領導者” 是關鍵</p>
</div><p>Monster Beverage is one &#34;low-leverage&#34; leader that could offer a shelter for investors in a possibly looming bond and oil storm, says Evercore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Monster Beverage 是一個 “低槓桿” 領導者，Evercore 表示，它可能為投資者提供在可能即將到來的債券和石油風暴中的避風港。</p>
</div><p>Worries around higher bond yields and inflation have taken a recent toll on the S&amp;P 500, which could be headed for a third-straight losing session on Tuesday. While not a worrying streak yet, concerns are rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對更高債券收益率和通貨膨脹的擔憂最近對標普 500 造成了影響，該指數可能在週二迎來連續第三個下跌交易日。雖然這還不是令人擔憂的趨勢，但擔憂正在上升。</p>
</div><p>Barclays, for example, has warned that the massive flood of money rushing into stocks is at risk of rushing out just as fast. Meanwhile, our call of the day from Evercore flags clear threats from rising oil prices and bond yields, warning investors are entering this potentially bumpy period with less protection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，巴克萊警告稱，湧入股票的鉅額資金可能會同樣迅速地流出。與此同時，Evercore 的今日觀點指出，油價和債券收益率上升帶來了明顯威脅，警告投資者在進入這個可能顛簸的時期時保護措施不足。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The broad stock market's rally from the 3/30 low has been impressive, decisively setting fresh records on momentum rarely seen since the Bullsupercycle began in 1982,&#34; said an Evercore ISI team led by senior managing director Julian Emanuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore ISI 團隊的高級董事朱利安·埃曼紐爾表示：“自 3 月 30 日低點以來，廣泛的股市反彈令人印象深刻，決定性地創造了自 1982 年牛市超級週期開始以來罕見的動量新紀錄。”</p>
</div><p>And they see &#34;longer-term upside,&#34; given that even as the market slid in March, defensive stocks were underperformers meaning investors were taking that pullback in stride. April's strong bounce also compares to similar rallies in history that were followed by more gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們認為 “長期上漲潛力” 依然存在，因為即使在 3 月市場下滑時，防禦性股票表現不佳，意味着投資者在應對這種回調時表現得相對從容。4 月的強勁反彈也與歷史上類似的反彈相比較，通常會隨之而來更多的漲幅。</p>
</div><p>However, &#34;rising oil and yields pose near-term speed bumps,&#34; said Evercore, whose founder Roger Altman warned a day earlier that the oil market was reaching a &#34;tipping point&#34; that could send prices to $150 a barrel, and shock the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Evercore 表示：“油價和收益率的上升帶來了短期障礙。” 創始人羅傑·阿爾特曼在前一天警告稱，石油市場正達到一個 “臨界點”，可能將價格推高至每桶 150 美元，並對經濟造成衝擊。</p>
</div><p>Emanuel and his colleagues said risks for stocks are building as long as WTI crude remains above $100 a barrel and the 10-year yield above 4.5%. They see particular risks for consumers and the economy if oil prices do not ease by the July 4th holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃曼紐爾及其同事表示，只要 WTI 原油價格保持在每桶 100 美元以上，10 年期收益率超過 4.5%，股票的風險就會不斷增加。如果油價在 7 月 4 日假期之前沒有緩解，他們認為消費者和經濟面臨特別風險。</p>
</div><p>What's particularly dangerous now is the lack of protection for investors. In March, investors had bought protection through stock-index put options - the right to sell at a given price and given date. So that protection against a slump kept them from dumping stocks in a panic and subsequent rewinding of that protection provided fuel for the rally in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前特別危險的是投資者缺乏保護。在 3 月，投資者通過股票指數看跌期權購買了保護——在特定價格和特定日期出售的權利。因此，這種對下跌的保護使他們避免了在恐慌中拋售股票，而隨後的保護撤回為 4 月的反彈提供了動力。</p>
</div><p>With investor protection a bit lower, Evercore said they're now recommeding &#34;tapping the brakes&#34; on low defensive stocks - such as strongly performing tech names. Instead, they are keeping a longstanding tilt to low-leverage stocks, which don't carry high debt that will create a worry down the road when rates rise. The latter has seen mostly consistent &#34;all-weather outperformance&#34; throughout market ups and downs of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於投資者保護措施有所降低，Evercore 表示，他們現在建議 “減緩對低防禦性股票的投資”——例如表現強勁的科技股。相反，他們保持對低槓桿股票的長期傾斜，這些股票沒有高債務，在利率上升時不會造成擔憂。後者在今年市場的起伏中表現出相對一致的 “全氣候超越”。</p>
</div><p>Low-leverage stocks also offer &#34;exposure to a potential rerun of dotcom era leadership,&#34; as that factor was a leading performer into the dotcom peak as smarter investors started to buy companies that had less-risky balance sheets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低槓桿股票還提供了 “對潛在重演互聯網泡沫時代領導地位的曝光”，因為這一因素在互聯網泡沫高峰期表現突出，聰明的投資者開始購買財務狀況較好的公司。</p>
</div><p>Evercore said it has refreshed its screens to look for potential outperformers among low-leverage stocks in the top quintile of the Russell 3000 RUA, based also on sales and earnings per share revisions and companies with $500 million-plus market capitalization. They also scanned for similar-sized companies with heavier debt and worse revisions in the Russell 3000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 表示，他們已更新篩選條件，以尋找在羅素 3000 RUA 中低槓桿股票的潛在超越者，基於銷售和每股收益修正，以及市值超過 5 億美元的公司。他們還掃描了羅素 3000 中類似規模的高債務和較差修正的公司。</p>
</div><p>Here are some of the &#34;low leverage leaders&#34; they prefer:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是他們偏好的 “低槓桿領導者”：</p>
</div><p>Source: Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
</div><p>And here are some &#34;low-leverage laggards&#34; they've flagged:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是他們標記的一些 “低槓桿滯後者”：</p>
</div><p>Source: Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
</div><p>The markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場動態</p>
</div><p>U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are dropping, as the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y creeps up to 4.609%. Brent crude (BRN00) is down nearly 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股指期貨（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）正在下跌，10 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 上升至 4.609%。布倫特原油（BRN00）下跌近 2%。</p>
</div><p>The buzz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場熱議</p>
</div><p>Home Depot (HD) kept its full-year outlook intact and shares are rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶（HD）保持全年展望不變，股價上漲。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet (GOOGL) and Blackstone (BX) are teaming up to create an AI cloud company, with $5 billion in capital from the latter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOGL）與黑石（BX）聯手創建一家人工智能雲公司，後者投資 50 億美元。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that he cancelled a planned Tuesday strike on Iran at the request of Gulf allies, to allow &#34;serious negotiations&#34; on a deal time to work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統在 Truth Social 上表示，應海灣盟友的請求，他取消了原定於週二對伊朗的打擊，以便為 “嚴肅談判” 留出時間。</p>
</div><p>Pending-home sales for April are due at 10 a.m. Ahead of that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is speaking at 8 a.m.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月份待售房屋數據將在上午 10 點公佈。在此之前，美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒將在上午 8 點發言。</p>
</div><p>Best of the web</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>網絡精選</p>
</div><p>Trump's IRS settlement features a $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund for allies. Here's who may get the money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的國税局和解包括一個 18 億美元的 “反武器化” 基金，供盟友使用。以下是可能獲得資金的人。</p>
</div><p>The mysterious crypto judges who settle polymarket disputes</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>神秘的加密法官解決了多市場爭議</p>
</div><p>Ebola raged for weeks in Congo before anyone raised the alarm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃博拉在剛果肆虐數週，才有人發出警報</p>
</div><p>The chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表</p>
</div><p>Bank of America's May global fund manager survey showed a record jump in equity allocation and a sharp drop in cash levels, driven by earnings optimism and expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Note, pressure has been building as of late on the Fed to shift to a hiking stance, given rising inflation worries around oil prices. BofA warned that given almost all the bears are now back into the stock market, early June could be &#34;ripe for profit taking.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行 5 月份的全球基金經理調查顯示，股票配置創下紀錄增長，現金水平大幅下降，主要受益於盈利樂觀和對美聯儲降息的預期。請注意，近期美聯儲面臨的壓力正在增加，因對油價上漲的通脹擔憂。美國銀行警告稱，鑑於幾乎所有空頭現在都已重返股市，6 月初可能 “適合獲利了結”。</p>
</div><p>Top tickers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>熱門股票</p>
</div><p>These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至上午 6 點，MarketWatch 上搜索最多的股票代碼如下：</p>
</div><p>Random reads</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨機閲讀</p>
</div><p>Red card, consolation pizza for USA soccer fans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紅牌，美國足球迷的安慰披薩。</p>
</div><p>The Mounties get their hot-dog-stealing fox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家騎警抓住了偷熱狗的狐狸。</p>
</div><p>Norweigian schoolboy unearths 1,300 year-old pre-Viking sword.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威男孩挖掘出 1300 年前的維京前劍。</p>
</div><p>Beyond the headlines</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超越頭條</p>
</div><p>MarketWatch Picks: This is the most underrated retirement savings move, says RBC Wealth Management's head of retirement solutions</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketWatch 推薦：這是最被低估的退休儲蓄舉措，RBC 財富管理退休解決方案負責人表示。</p>
</div><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞通訊和華爾街日報出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0704ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0704ET</p>
</div>

Investors are unprotected against oil and yield shocks. Here are the stocks to buy and avoid.

- Evercore 指出 “低槓桿領袖” 是投資者的避風港。  
- 隨着債券收益率上升，市場風險加大，建議投資者降低防禦性股票配置。  
- 低槓桿股票的表現相對穩定，可能吸引尋求規避風險的投資者。

Dow Jones

Evercore

輝盛研究系統

家得寶

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

黑石集團

美國銀行

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

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