<p>多年來，東南亞國家聯盟的政府面臨來自國際貸款機構和氣候論壇的壓力，要求宣佈逐步淘汰化石燃料、暫停新電廠建設，並大力投資風能和太陽能。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞和越南獲得了來自公正能源轉型夥伴關係的以脱碳為目標的資金支持。領導人們談到到 2050 年實現淨零目標，並在 2040 年或更早退出煤炭。天然氣被視為過渡燃料，被認為是通往未來可再生能源烏托邦的必要之惡，在那裏風能和太陽能將被 “擴大應用”。</p>
<p>然而，自信的言辭與現實相遇。</p>
<p>由於中東衝突的擴大，突發的石油和天然氣危機暴露了淨零計劃的致命缺陷。天然氣市場幾乎在一夜之間緊縮。霍爾木茲海峽的航運路線變得危險。液化天然氣價格飆升。供應鏈陷入困境。</p>
<p>現在，東盟各國政府悄然撕毀氣候承諾，重新依賴石油、煤炭和天然氣——這些是唯一能夠保證其不斷增長的經濟不間斷供電的可負擔能源來源。</p>
<p>簡而言之，化石燃料再次受到青睞。</p>
<p>自四月中旬以來，報告顯示亞洲出現了明顯的模式：液化天然氣中斷、現貨價格上漲，以及對煤炭這種仍能以更便宜和更迅速提供可調度電力的爭奪。東盟不靠口號運作，工廠、港口、商場和家庭也不靠幻想運作。當天然氣價格飆升、供應緊張時，公用事業公司會選擇煤炭，因為它是可用且熟悉的。</p>
<p>本月，印度尼西亞能源部長巴希爾·拉哈達利亞明確表示：“我決定，煤炭暫時繼續。這關乎生存模式和效率。我們不能讓人民承受高電價。”</p>
<p>印度尼西亞已批准提高煤炭生產配額，並推遲了如 Cirebon-1 等煤電廠的早期淘汰計劃。消除煤炭使用的計劃被擱置。為 2.8 億人提供可負擔的電力是首要任務。</p>
<p>在越南，3 月份煤電發電量環比增長 44%，達到 16 太瓦時。這佔該國總髮電量的 56%——是近期的最高比例。公用事業公司談判額外的煤炭進口，以填補因液化天然氣昂貴和稀缺而留下的空缺。</p>
<p>泰國採取了直接行動。有關部門重新啓動了梅莫煤電廠的兩個退役機組，並命令現有煤電站滿負荷運轉。增加的 600 兆瓦幫助在天然氣價格飆升後穩定了電力成本。</p>
<p>菲律賓在 3 月底宣佈國家能源緊急狀態，因為汽油價格翻了一番。煤炭已經提供約 60% 的電力。政府加大了煤電廠的產出，並考慮放寬新產能的限制。能源部長拉斐爾·洛蒂拉表示，暫時依賴煤炭將防止短缺。</p>
<p>在緬甸，汽油站排起了長隊。黑市價格超過官方價格兩倍，導致稻米收割放緩和食品價格上漲。儘管當前危機主要影響柴油和汽油，但電力公司更加依賴國內煤炭儲備，以避免更大範圍的停電。馬來西亞等國也在考慮採取類似措施，以保護工業產出和農村經濟。</p>
<p>東盟國家迅速放棄淨零承諾的速度應該告訴你關於氣候議程可行性的一切。當真正的威脅出現時，綠色能源轉型暴露出是一種奢侈的信念，只有那些從未擔心過下一千瓦電力從何而來的人的信仰。</p>
<p>發展中經濟體正在拒絕要求其持續貧困的氣候教條。它們正在積極擴大煤礦開採，以確保穩定的國內燃料供應。這保護了它們的經濟免受進口液化天然氣價格劇烈波動的影響。</p>
<p>諷刺的是，曾花費多年承諾快速脱碳的政府現在依賴煤炭來維持電力供應和電價的可承受性。中產階級對此表示讚賞，因為替代方案是更高的賬單、燃料配給和失業。</p>
<p>對於普通家庭而言，能源安全不是辯論俱樂部的主題。這是可負擔電力與不必要甚至危險的現代生活中斷之間的區別。</p>
<p><em>Vijay Jayaraj 是</em> <em>CO2 Coalition</em> <em>的科學與研究助理，曾是不列顛哥倫比亞大學變化海洋研究單位的研究助理。</em></p>

印尼 MSCI ETF - iShares

VNAM

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

印尼 ETF - Market Vectors

<p>東南亞國家正在逆轉其淨零排放的承諾，因中東衝突加劇導致的能源危機而重新依賴化石燃料。印尼和越南等國正在增加煤炭的生產和使用，以確保其不斷增長的經濟能夠獲得負擔得起且可靠的電力。這一轉變突顯了在天然氣價格上漲和供應鏈中斷的背景下，向可再生能源過渡所面臨的挑戰，因為各國政府將能源安全置於氣候承諾之上</p>

<p>For years, the governments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations faced pressure from international lenders and climate forums to announce fossil fuel phase-outs, moratoria on new plants, and heavy bets on wind and solar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年來，東南亞國家聯盟的政府面臨來自國際貸款機構和氣候論壇的壓力，要求宣佈逐步淘汰化石燃料、暫停新電廠建設，並大力投資風能和太陽能。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia and Vietnam secured decarbonization-inspired funding from the Just Energy Transition Partnership. Leaders spoke of achieving net-zero goals by 2050 and exiting coal by 2040 or earlier. Natural gas was regarded as the transition fuel, a supposedly necessary evil to get to a future renewable energy utopia, in which wind and solar would be “scaled up.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞和越南獲得了來自公正能源轉型夥伴關係的以脱碳為目標的資金支持。領導人們談到到 2050 年實現淨零目標，並在 2040 年或更早退出煤炭。天然氣被視為過渡燃料，被認為是通往未來可再生能源烏托邦的必要之惡，在那裏風能和太陽能將被 “擴大應用”。</p>
</div><p>Then the confident rhetoric met reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自信的言辭與現實相遇。</p>
</div><p>A sudden oil and natural gas crunch, triggered by the expanding conflict in the Middle East, has laid bare fatal flaws in the net zero program. Gas markets tightened almost overnight. Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz got risky. Liquefied natural gas prices surged. Supply chains stumbled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於中東衝突的擴大，突發的石油和天然氣危機暴露了淨零計劃的致命缺陷。天然氣市場幾乎在一夜之間緊縮。霍爾木茲海峽的航運路線變得危險。液化天然氣價格飆升。供應鏈陷入困境。</p>
</div><p>Now, ASEAN governments are quietly tearing up their climate pledges and returning to oil, coal, and natural gas — the only affordable energy sources that guarantee uninterrupted power for their growing economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，東盟各國政府悄然撕毀氣候承諾，重新依賴石油、煤炭和天然氣——這些是唯一能夠保證其不斷增長的經濟不間斷供電的可負擔能源來源。</p>
</div><p>In short, fossil fuels are back in style.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之，化石燃料再次受到青睞。</p>
</div><p>Since mid-April, reports have described a clear pattern across Asia: liquefied natural gas disruption, higher spot prices, and a scramble for dispatchable power that coal can still provide more cheaply and immediately than many alternatives. ASEAN does not run on slogans, and factories, ports, malls, and homes do not operate on wishful thinking. When gas prices jump and supplies tighten, utilities reach for coal because it is available and familiar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自四月中旬以來，報告顯示亞洲出現了明顯的模式：液化天然氣中斷、現貨價格上漲，以及對煤炭這種仍能以更便宜和更迅速提供可調度電力的爭奪。東盟不靠口號運作，工廠、港口、商場和家庭也不靠幻想運作。當天然氣價格飆升、供應緊張時，公用事業公司會選擇煤炭，因為它是可用且熟悉的。</p>
</div><p>This month, Indonesia Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia made it plain: “I decided, let coal continue for now. This is about survival mode and efficiency. We must not sacrifice our people with high electricity prices.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，印度尼西亞能源部長巴希爾·拉哈達利亞明確表示：“我決定，煤炭暫時繼續。這關乎生存模式和效率。我們不能讓人民承受高電價。”</p>
</div><p>Indonesia has approved higher quotas for coal production and delayed earlier phase-out schedules for coal plants like Cirebon-1. Plans to eliminate coal use sit on the shelf. Affordable power for 280 million people comes first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞已批准提高煤炭生產配額，並推遲了如 Cirebon-1 等煤電廠的早期淘汰計劃。消除煤炭使用的計劃被擱置。為 2.8 億人提供可負擔的電力是首要任務。</p>
</div><p>In Vietnam, coal-fired generation jumped 44 percent month-over-month in March, reaching 16 terawatt-hours. That accounted for 56 percent of the country’s total power output — the highest share in recent memory. Utilities negotiated extra coal imports to fill gaps left by expensive and scarce liquefied natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在越南，3 月份煤電發電量環比增長 44%，達到 16 太瓦時。這佔該國總髮電量的 56%——是近期的最高比例。公用事業公司談判額外的煤炭進口，以填補因液化天然氣昂貴和稀缺而留下的空缺。</p>
</div><p>Thailand took direct action. Authorities restarted two decommissioned units at the Mae Moh coal-fired power plant and ordered existing coal stations to maximum capacity. The added 600 megawatts helped stabilize electricity costs after gas prices soared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰國採取了直接行動。有關部門重新啓動了梅莫煤電廠的兩個退役機組，並命令現有煤電站滿負荷運轉。增加的 600 兆瓦幫助在天然氣價格飆升後穩定了電力成本。</p>
</div><p>The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in late March after gasoline prices more than doubled. Coal already supplies about 60 percent of electricity. The government ramped up output from coal plants and considered easing restrictions on new capacity. Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla signaled that temporary reliance on coal would prevent shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲律賓在 3 月底宣佈國家能源緊急狀態，因為汽油價格翻了一番。煤炭已經提供約 60% 的電力。政府加大了煤電廠的產出，並考慮放寬新產能的限制。能源部長拉斐爾·洛蒂拉表示，暫時依賴煤炭將防止短缺。</p>
</div><p>In Myanmar, there have been long queues at petrol stations. Black-market prices more than twice official rates have slowed rice harvesting and hiked food prices. Although the immediate crisis hits diesel and gasoline, power utilities lean harder on domestic coal reserves to avoid broader blackouts. Malaysia and others eye similar steps to protect industrial output and rural economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在緬甸，汽油站排起了長隊。黑市價格超過官方價格兩倍，導致稻米收割放緩和食品價格上漲。儘管當前危機主要影響柴油和汽油，但電力公司更加依賴國內煤炭儲備，以避免更大範圍的停電。馬來西亞等國也在考慮採取類似措施，以保護工業產出和農村經濟。</p>
</div><p>The speed with which ASEAN nations abandoned their net-zero pledges should tell you everything you need to know about the viability of the climate agenda. The moment a real threat emerged, the green energy transition was exposed as a luxury belief held by those who have never had to worry about where their next kilowatt is coming from.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>東盟國家迅速放棄淨零承諾的速度應該告訴你關於氣候議程可行性的一切。當真正的威脅出現時，綠色能源轉型暴露出是一種奢侈的信念，只有那些從未擔心過下一千瓦電力從何而來的人的信仰。</p>
</div><p>Developing economies are rejecting the climate dogma that demands their perpetual impoverishment. They are actively expanding coal mining operations to ensure a steady supply of domestic fuel. This protects their economies from the wild price-swings of imported liquefied natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>發展中經濟體正在拒絕要求其持續貧困的氣候教條。它們正在積極擴大煤礦開採，以確保穩定的國內燃料供應。這保護了它們的經濟免受進口液化天然氣價格劇烈波動的影響。</p>
</div><p>The irony is obvious. Governments that spent years promising rapid decarbonization are now leaning on coal to keep lights on and electricity prices tolerable. The middle class applauds because the alternative is higher bills, fuel rationing, and lost jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>諷刺的是，曾花費多年承諾快速脱碳的政府現在依賴煤炭來維持電力供應和電價的可承受性。中產階級對此表示讚賞，因為替代方案是更高的賬單、燃料配給和失業。</p>
</div><p>For ordinary households, energy security is not a subject for a debate club. It is the difference between affordable electricity and unnecessary, even dangerous, interruptions to modern living.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於普通家庭而言，能源安全不是辯論俱樂部的主題。這是可負擔電力與不必要甚至危險的現代生活中斷之間的區別。</p>
</div><p><em>Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the</em> <em>CO2 Coalition</em> <em>and a former research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Vijay Jayaraj 是</em> <em>CO2 Coalition</em> <em>的科學與研究助理，曾是不列顛哥倫比亞大學變化海洋研究單位的研究助理。</em></p>
</div>

東盟國家重新使用化石燃料，逐漸放棄淨零排放計劃