<p>看起來市場似乎不再完全相信特朗普總統在聲稱與伊朗正在進行 “嚴肅談判” 並因此暫停計劃中的打擊後所説的話。然而，投資者仍然持懷疑態度。由於美伊僵局持續，油價從近期高點回落的幅度非常有限，交易者們保持緊張。我們不太可能在談判取得實質性突破、允許霍爾木茲海峽重新開放之前看到任何有意義的趨勢變化。目前，油價相對穩定，幫助美元在特朗普昨日的言論後恢復。受能源影響的貨幣再次承壓，EUR/USD 跌入 1.16 低位，而 USD/JPY 再次突破 159.00，再次測試日本銀行對日元貶值的容忍度。黃金也隨之下滑，同時美國股指期貨走軟。目前，EUR/USD 的預測依然略顯看跌。</p>
<h2>市場等待美伊進展</h2>
<p>市場反應表明，投資者在等待實質性進展，而非空洞的言辭。特朗普之前曾表現出樂觀的語氣，堅稱與伊朗的協議即將達成，但談判卻停滯不前，市場也因此受到影響。目前，市場的感覺是白宮試圖爭取時間，希望德黑蘭提出特朗普最終可以視為政治勝利的條件。</p>
<p>在缺乏實質性進展的情況下，美元看起來有望重新獲得上週末時的強勢，而這一趨勢在撰寫時已經開始。因此，EUR/USD 可能會迅速回落至 1.160 以下，而 USD/JPY 可能再次挑戰備受關注的 160.00 關口。</p>
<p>目前，這仍然是一個對美元有利的環境。全球和美國國債收益率的上升再次支撐了美元，但與之前因財政焦慮驅動的情況不同，目前的走勢反映了對通脹壓力的重新關注。市場似乎越來越相信，持續的價格動態將使美國利率保持在較高水平，從而增強對美元的需求。</p>
<h2>投資者本週關注什麼？</h2>
<p>由於美國經濟日曆在接下來的幾個交易日相對清淡，地緣政治頭條可能仍將是市場的主要驅動因素。特朗普昨日表示，針對伊朗的計劃打擊已在海灣國家的呼籲和持續的外交討論後被推遲。然而，報告繼續表明華盛頓與德黑蘭在核條件和停火條款上仍存在重大分歧。</p>
<p>這在很大程度上還取決於明天英偉達的業績是否能幫助穩定更廣泛的市場情緒。強勁的業績可能會使美國主要股指回升至歷史高點，而疲弱的業績則可能對風險資產不利，對美元有利。</p>
<p>與此同時，關注日元，因為它可能間接影響美元。儘管美元交易時段有所放軟，但該貨幣仍面臨壓力，這加劇了市場對日本當局在進一步貶值方面的容忍度的擔憂。</p>
<p>巴黎的 G7 峯會也將受到關注，儘管對任何市場驅動突破的預期仍然有限。</p>
<h2>技術 EUR/USD 預測：下行的最小阻力路徑</h2>
<p>EUR/USD 仍處於區間震盪中，儘管近期的偏向略顯看跌，過去七個交易日中有六個交易日出現下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1783" height="762" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>更重要的是，EUR/USD 現在已跌破 1.1670 至 1.1700 的關鍵支撐區間——該區域之前曾作為支撐，並受到 200 日移動平均線的強化。只要該貨幣對保持在該區域以下，最小阻力路徑可能仍然是向下。</p>
<p>下一個支撐區域在 1.1600 至 1.1605 附近，標誌着 4 月初反彈的底部。在此之下，直到 1.1500 之前幾乎沒有顯著的支撐。如果該水平被突破，市場可能會開始瞄準新的年度低點，3 月的低點約為 1.1411 將重新受到關注。</p>
<p>在上行方面，若回升至 1.1700 以上，將改善短期技術圖景，並可能使 EUR/USD 重新測試 1.1800。</p>
<p>然而，要使該貨幣對維持向上的突破，市場可能需要看到美伊局勢的實質性進展。只要油價保持在高位，投資者可能會難以對歐元區的前景產生信心，從而限制對歐洲資產的需求，並使我們的 EUR/USD 預測風險偏向下行。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Direxion

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

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2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1.5 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Tradr

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

<p>EUR/USD 的預測保持適度看跌，因為市場在等待美伊談判的實質性進展。油價已經穩定，支持了美元的復甦。該貨幣對已跌破關鍵支撐位，如果趨勢持續，可能會向 1.1500 進一步下滑。投資者保持謹慎，關注地緣政治動態和即將發佈的經濟數據，特別是英偉達的業績，這可能會影響市場情緒</p>

<p>It looks like markets no longer appear to be taking Donald Trump entirely at his word after the US president claimed that “serious negotiations” with Iran are under way and that planned strikes have therefore been paused. Investors, however, remain unconvinced. Oil prices gave given back very little from their recent highs, as the ongoing US-Iran stalemate keeps traders on edge. It is unlikely we will see any meaningful moves against the prevailing trends until we get a real breakthrough in negotiations that allows for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. For now, oil prices have held relatively steady, helping the dollar recover after yesterday’s jawboning from Trump. Energy-sensitive currencies have come back under pressure, with EUR/USD slipping into the low 1.16s, while USD/JPY has pushed back above 159.00, once again testing the Bank of Japan’s tolerance for yen weakness. Gold has also slipped, alongside softer US equity futures. For now, the EUR/USD forecast remains modestly bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看起來市場似乎不再完全相信特朗普總統在聲稱與伊朗正在進行 “嚴肅談判” 並因此暫停計劃中的打擊後所説的話。然而，投資者仍然持懷疑態度。由於美伊僵局持續，油價從近期高點回落的幅度非常有限，交易者們保持緊張。我們不太可能在談判取得實質性突破、允許霍爾木茲海峽重新開放之前看到任何有意義的趨勢變化。目前，油價相對穩定，幫助美元在特朗普昨日的言論後恢復。受能源影響的貨幣再次承壓，EUR/USD 跌入 1.16 低位，而 USD/JPY 再次突破 159.00，再次測試日本銀行對日元貶值的容忍度。黃金也隨之下滑，同時美國股指期貨走軟。目前，EUR/USD 的預測依然略顯看跌。</p>
</div><h2>Markets await progress on US-Iran</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場等待美伊進展</h2>
</div><p>The market reaction suggests investors are waiting for tangible progress rather than rhetoric. Trump has struck an optimistic tone before, insisting a deal with Iran was close, only for negotiations to stall and markets to be caught out. For now, the sense in the market is that the White House is attempting to buy time in the hope that Tehran presents terms that Trump can ultimately frame as a political win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場反應表明，投資者在等待實質性進展，而非空洞的言辭。特朗普之前曾表現出樂觀的語氣，堅稱與伊朗的協議即將達成，但談判卻停滯不前，市場也因此受到影響。目前，市場的感覺是白宮試圖爭取時間，希望德黑蘭提出特朗普最終可以視為政治勝利的條件。</p>
</div><p>In the absence of tangible progress, the dollar looks well placed to regain the strong footing seen late last week, and that motion was already underway at the time of writing. So, it is quite possible the EUR/USD could quickly drift back below 1.160, while USD/JPY may once again challenge the closely watched 160.00 threshold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在缺乏實質性進展的情況下，美元看起來有望重新獲得上週末時的強勢，而這一趨勢在撰寫時已經開始。因此，EUR/USD 可能會迅速回落至 1.160 以下，而 USD/JPY 可能再次挑戰備受關注的 160.00 關口。</p>
</div><p>For now, this remains a dollar-positive environment. Rising global and US Treasury yields are once again underpinning the dollar, but unlike previous episodes driven by fiscal anxiety, the current move reflects renewed concern around inflation pressures. Markets appear increasingly convinced that sticky price dynamics will keep US rates elevated for longer, reinforcing demand for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，這仍然是一個對美元有利的環境。全球和美國國債收益率的上升再次支撐了美元，但與之前因財政焦慮驅動的情況不同，目前的走勢反映了對通脹壓力的重新關注。市場似乎越來越相信，持續的價格動態將使美國利率保持在較高水平，從而增強對美元的需求。</p>
</div><h2>What will investors watch out for this week?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者本週關注什麼？</h2>
</div><p>With the US economic calendar relatively light over the coming sessions, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the dominant market driver. Trump indicated yesterday that a planned strike on Iran had been postponed following appeals from Gulf states and ongoing diplomatic discussions. However, reports continue to suggest significant divisions remain between Washington and Tehran over nuclear conditions and ceasefire terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於美國經濟日曆在接下來的幾個交易日相對清淡，地緣政治頭條可能仍將是市場的主要驅動因素。特朗普昨日表示，針對伊朗的計劃打擊已在海灣國家的呼籲和持續的外交討論後被推遲。然而，報告繼續表明華盛頓與德黑蘭在核條件和停火條款上仍存在重大分歧。</p>
</div><p>Much will also depend on whether Nvidia’s results tomorrow can help stabilise broader market sentiment. A strong print could see the US major US indices climb back towards ATHs, while a weak set of results could be bad for risk assets, and good for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在很大程度上還取決於明天英偉達的業績是否能幫助穩定更廣泛的市場情緒。強勁的業績可能會使美國主要股指回升至歷史高點，而疲弱的業績則可能對風險資產不利，對美元有利。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, keep an eye on the yen as it could impact the dollar indirectly. The currency has struggled despite periods of softer dollar trading, reinforcing concerns that markets are becoming increasingly comfortable testing Japanese authorities’ tolerance for further weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，關注日元，因為它可能間接影響美元。儘管美元交易時段有所放軟，但該貨幣仍面臨壓力，這加劇了市場對日本當局在進一步貶值方面的容忍度的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>There will be some attention on the G7 summit in Paris, although expectations for any market-moving breakthroughs remain limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴黎的 G7 峯會也將受到關注，儘管對任何市場驅動突破的預期仍然有限。</p>
</div><h2>Technical EUR/USD forecast: Path of least resistance lower</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技術 EUR/USD 預測：下行的最小阻力路徑</h2>
</div><p>The EUR/USD remains range-bound, although the recent bias has turned modestly bearish, with the pair declining in six of the past seven trading sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR/USD 仍處於區間震盪中，儘管近期的偏向略顯看跌，過去七個交易日中有六個交易日出現下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>More importantly, EUR/USD has now broken below a key support zone around 1.1670 to 1.1700 — an area that had previously acted as support and was reinforced by the 200-day moving average. As long as the pair remains below that region, the path of least resistance is likely to remain to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，EUR/USD 現在已跌破 1.1670 至 1.1700 的關鍵支撐區間——該區域之前曾作為支撐，並受到 200 日移動平均線的強化。只要該貨幣對保持在該區域以下，最小阻力路徑可能仍然是向下。</p>
</div><p>The next area of support comes in around 1.1600 to 1.1605, which marks the base of the rally seen in early April. Beneath that, there is relatively little in the way of notable support until 1.1500. Should that level give way, the market could begin targeting fresh yearly lows, with the March trough around 1.1411 coming back into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一個支撐區域在 1.1600 至 1.1605 附近，標誌着 4 月初反彈的底部。在此之下，直到 1.1500 之前幾乎沒有顯著的支撐。如果該水平被突破，市場可能會開始瞄準新的年度低點，3 月的低點約為 1.1411 將重新受到關注。</p>
</div><p>On the upside, a move back above 1.1700 would improve the near-term technical picture and could allow EUR/USD to retest 1.1800.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上行方面，若回升至 1.1700 以上，將改善短期技術圖景，並可能使 EUR/USD 重新測試 1.1800。</p>
</div><p>However, for the pair to sustain a break higher, markets would likely need to see meaningful progress on the US-Iran situation. As long as oil prices remain elevated, investors may struggle to gain confidence in a stronger Eurozone outlook, limiting appetite for European assets and keeping the risks to our EUR/USD forecast titled to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，要使該貨幣對維持向上的突破，市場可能需要看到美伊局勢的實質性進展。只要油價保持在高位，投資者可能會難以對歐元區的前景產生信心，從而限制對歐洲資產的需求，並使我們的 EUR/USD 預測風險偏向下行。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar holds steady as markets await US-Iran progress

Forex

英偉達

NVIDIA Corporation

歐元兑美元的預測：美元保持穩定，市場正在等待美國與伊朗之間的進展