<p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
<p>現金水平下降，市場情緒高漲，意味着市場距離拋售僅一步之遙</p>
<p>美國銀行警告稱，股市可能面臨夏季拋售，因為投資者紛紛湧入市場。</p>
<p>由於強勁的盈利增長推動過度樂觀，投資者情緒已升至三個月來的高點。然而，這使得市場在 6 月初面臨獲利回吐的風險，任何下跌的嚴重程度將取決於債券收益率的上升幅度。</p>
<p>這是美國銀行 5 月份基金經理調查的主要發現，該調查由首席股票策略師邁克爾·哈特內特領導的團隊於週二發佈。報告指出，哈特內特現在認為，由於投資者情緒變得如此樂觀，市場距離技術性賣出信號僅一步之遙。</p>
<p>FMS 現金水平降至 3.9%，觸發賣出信號</p>
<p>該調查的一個引人注目的數據是，在 170 位管理近 5000 億美元資產的基金經理中，現金水平在過去四周內從 4.3% 降至 3.9%。這是自 2024 年 2 月以來最大的一次下降。一般來説，低於 4% 的讀數會觸發賣出信號，值得注意的是，在過去十五年中觀察到的 24 個賣出信號後，市場的中位數下跌為-1%。</p>
<p>調查結果顯示，投資者存在一定程度的自滿。例如，只有 16% 的受訪者預計未來十二個月內美聯儲會加息，儘管 2 年期國債收益率為 4.1%——通常被視為未來美聯儲基金利率（FF00）的最佳指引，目前為 3.50-3.75%——這表明加息的可能性。</p>
<p>對美聯儲可能在通脹威脅上 “滯後” 的擔憂，或在應對通脹方面缺乏前瞻性，解釋了為什麼近三分之二的受訪投資者認為美國長期國債收益率 6% 是一個可能的目標。</p>
<p>只有 16% 的投資者預計美聯儲將在未來 12 個月內加息</p>
<p>對利率的相對樂觀預期似乎與調查中不到一半的受訪者預計霍爾木茲海峽在 6 月底前將允許原油通行的事實相矛盾。不出所料，調查顯示投資者對年末油價（BRN00）的共識約為 85 美元。</p>
<p>根據投資者的説法，最擁擠的交易是全球半導體 SOX 的多頭，73% 的投資者認同這一點。他們承認，最大的尾部風險或罕見但災難性市場發展的可能性是通脹。這可能解釋了為什麼大宗商品的超配頭寸是 FMS 有史以來最高的，以及為什麼債券的超配程度是自 2022 年 6 月以來的最大低配，當時美國的通脹飆升至 9%。</p>
<p>利用調查結果提出可能的逆向交易思路，哈特內特強調了固定收益、美元 DXY、不受歡迎的英國資產 UK:UKX 和因汽油價格上漲而受挫的消費股 XLY 的趨勢反轉潛力。</p>
<p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>05-19-26 0828ET</p>

美國銀行

<p>美國銀行警告稱，隨着投資者情緒達到三個月來的高峰，股市可能面臨夏季拋售。基金經理調查顯示現金水平降至 3.9%，觸發了賣出信號。儘管樂觀情緒存在，但對債券收益率上升和通貨膨脹的擔憂依然存在，只有 16% 的投資者預計美聯儲在明年會加息。調查還強調了半導體領域的擁擠交易和債券的顯著低配，暗示可能出現逆向交易的想法</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>Falling cash levels, soaring sentiment mean market's a 'chip shot' away from selling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現金水平下降，市場情緒高漲，意味着市場距離拋售僅一步之遙</p>
</div><p>Bank of America is warning that stock markets could be facing a summer rout after investors have piled into the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行警告稱，股市可能面臨夏季拋售，因為投資者紛紛湧入市場。</p>
</div><p>Excessive optimism, driven by robust earnings growth has whipped up investor sentiment to a three-month peak. However, this leaves the market vulnerable to profit-taking in early June, with the severity of any decline to be determined by how high bond yields rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於強勁的盈利增長推動過度樂觀，投資者情緒已升至三個月來的高點。然而，這使得市場在 6 月初面臨獲利回吐的風險，任何下跌的嚴重程度將取決於債券收益率的上升幅度。</p>
</div><p>That's according the main findings of Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey for May, which published Tuesday by a team led by chief equity strategist Michael Hartnett. The report notes that Hartnett now reckons that because investor sentiment has become so bullish, markets are within a &#34;chip shot&#34; of hitting a technical sell signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是美國銀行 5 月份基金經理調查的主要發現，該調查由首席股票策略師邁克爾·哈特內特領導的團隊於週二發佈。報告指出，哈特內特現在認為，由於投資者情緒變得如此樂觀，市場距離技術性賣出信號僅一步之遙。</p>
</div><p>FMS cash level drops to 3.9%, triggering sell signal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FMS 現金水平降至 3.9%，觸發賣出信號</p>
</div><p>The eye-catching figure from the survey, conducted among 170 fund managers running almost half a trillion in assets, was the cash level that fell from 4.3% to 3.9% in the last four weeks. That was the biggest such drop since February 2024. A reading below 4% generally triggers a sell signal and it's worth noting that the median market decline, following the 24 sell signals observed in the last fifteen years, is -1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該調查的一個引人注目的數據是，在 170 位管理近 5000 億美元資產的基金經理中，現金水平在過去四周內從 4.3% 降至 3.9%。這是自 2024 年 2 月以來最大的一次下降。一般來説，低於 4% 的讀數會觸發賣出信號，值得注意的是，在過去十五年中觀察到的 24 個賣出信號後，市場的中位數下跌為-1%。</p>
</div><p>Some of the poll's findings show a degree of complacency on behalf of investors. Only 16% of respondents, for example, expect Fed rate hikes in the next twelve months, despite 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y yields of 4.1% - yypically interpreted as the best guide to the future Fed Funds rate (FF00), now at 3.50-3.75% - suggesting they are probable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>調查結果顯示，投資者存在一定程度的自滿。例如，只有 16% 的受訪者預計未來十二個月內美聯儲會加息，儘管 2 年期國債收益率為 4.1%——通常被視為未來美聯儲基金利率（FF00）的最佳指引，目前為 3.50-3.75%——這表明加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Concerns that the Fed may &#34;be behind the curve&#34; on the threat of inflation, or not forward-thinking enough in terms of tackling it, explains why almost two-thirds of investors surveyed believe a 6% yield on the U.S. long bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y is a likely target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對美聯儲可能在通脹威脅上 “滯後” 的擔憂，或在應對通脹方面缺乏前瞻性，解釋了為什麼近三分之二的受訪投資者認為美國長期國債收益率 6% 是一個可能的目標。</p>
</div><p>Just 16% of investors expect the Fed to hike rates in the next 12 months</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 16% 的投資者預計美聯儲將在未來 12 個月內加息</p>
</div><p>The relatively sanguine expectations for interest rates also seems at odds with the fact that less than half of the survey's respondents expect the Strait of Hormuz to be free for the transit of crude by the end of June. Not surprisingly, the survey shows the consensus among investors for the oil price (BRN00) at year-end to be around $85.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對利率的相對樂觀預期似乎與調查中不到一半的受訪者預計霍爾木茲海峽在 6 月底前將允許原油通行的事實相矛盾。不出所料，調查顯示投資者對年末油價（BRN00）的共識約為 85 美元。</p>
</div><p>The most crowded trade, according to investors, is the long global semiconductors SOX bandwagon, identified by 73% of them. The biggest tail risk, or probability of a rare but catastrophic market development, they acknowledged was inflation. This might explain why the overweight position in commodities is the highest the FMS has ever registered, and why bonds are the biggest underweight seen since June in 2022 at the height of the spike in inflation to 9% in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據投資者的説法，最擁擠的交易是全球半導體 SOX 的多頭，73% 的投資者認同這一點。他們承認，最大的尾部風險或罕見但災難性市場發展的可能性是通脹。這可能解釋了為什麼大宗商品的超配頭寸是 FMS 有史以來最高的，以及為什麼債券的超配程度是自 2022 年 6 月以來的最大低配，當時美國的通脹飆升至 9%。</p>
</div><p>Using the survey's findings to suggest possible contrarian trade ideas, Hartnett highlights the potential for a trend reversal in fixed-income, the dollar DXY, unloved U.K. assets UK:UKX and consumer stocks XLY that have foundered as gasoline prices have jumped at the pump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利用調查結果提出可能的逆向交易思路，哈特內特強調了固定收益、美元 DXY、不受歡迎的英國資產 UK:UKX 和因汽油價格上漲而受挫的消費股 XLY 的趨勢反轉潛力。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0828ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0828ET</p>
</div>

Investors are all-in on stocks, and a June swoon could be next, BofA says

- 美銀警告股市可能在夏季遭遇回調，因投資者情緒過於樂觀。
- 調查顯示現金水平降至 3.9%，觸發賣出信號；過去 15 年的市場平均跌幅為 -1%。
- 大多數投資者認為美聯儲將面臨通脹挑戰，預期長期債券收益率可能達 6%。

Dow Jones

精選消費品板塊指數 ETF - SPDR

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

美國銀行表示，投資者全力投入股票市場，六月可能會出現股市下跌