<p>美元/日元在日本於四月底進行干預後重新開始穩步攀升，市場普遍懷疑在五月初會有進一步的干預。自那時以來，價格走勢變得更加積極，特別是在該貨幣對重新奪回關鍵的 158.00 水平後——這是一個重要的技術閾值。儘管美元交易出現了一些疲軟，日元仍然面臨困境，這加劇了市場對日本當局在進一步貶值方面容忍度的擔憂。目前，風險平衡仍然指向美元/日元前景的進一步上行，而不是持久的下行反轉。干預可能會引發劇烈但短暫的回調，但最近的經驗表明，這些波動不太可能持續很長時間。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>干預及其對美元/日元的影響減弱</h2>
<p>越來越明顯的是，市場對干預本身的有效性給予的重視程度在下降。相對温和的波動性表明，交易者將官方行動視為一種臨時的制動，而不是持久的反轉機制。這使得日元在美國收益率保持高位和全球風險偏好不確定的環境中變得脆弱。</p>
<p>最近一輪日元貶值發生在日本財政部終於對關於投機性和單邊貨幣走勢的反覆警告採取行動，通過日本銀行在黃金週假期期間進行干預。當美元/日元突破 160.00 時，東京似乎認為已經夠了，觸發了自 2024 年 7 月以來首次的日元買入行動。</p>
<p>干預最初引發了日元在各個方面的急劇反彈，但潛在趨勢隨後重新顯現。市場再次質疑東京是否會再次干預，以及進一步行動的有效性如何。</p>
<h2>為什麼日元貶值是個壞事？</h2>
<p>日本的核心問題在於，日元貶值顯著提高了進口能源、食品和原材料的成本。考慮到該國對能源進口的高度依賴，最近與伊朗相關的油價上漲只加劇了壓力。雖然日元貶值通常會支持日本出口，但這種好處目前被進口通脹和更高的能源成本所掩蓋。</p>
<p>如果油價保持高位且美國國債收益率繼續上升，干預的有效性可能會進一步減弱。在這種情況下，美元/日元仍可能果斷突破 160.00。</p>
<h2>美日聯合努力將更有效，但不太可能</h2>
<p>市場已經觀察到連續干預輪次的收益遞減，日本當局也清楚外匯儲備並非無限。</p>
<p>一個可能的途徑是與美國協調行動，儘管華盛頓迄今為止對直接參與表現出較少的興趣。也就是説，如果美元的廣泛強勢加速，美國財政部最終可能會與日本當局合作以穩定日元。這種舉動的可信度可能會高於單邊干預，但目前沒有證據表明這種情況即將發生。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，儘管反覆嘗試干預，美元/日元的整體前景仍然看漲。持續的下行反轉可能需要油價顯著下降，而這又取決於美國與伊朗之間的實質性進展以及地緣政治緊張局勢的整體緩解。</p>
<h2>技術美元/日元前景：干預風險再次上升，160 再次成為焦點</h2>
<p>美元/日元的前景仍然堅定地指向匯率回到 160.00 區域，投資者越來越將其視為東京政策制定者的分界線。如果當局在這些水平附近再次不採取行動，注意力可能會迅速轉向 161.00 至 162.00 區域——這是日本銀行在 2024 年 7 月最後一次干預的區域。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>自突破關鍵的 157.90/158.00 區域（現在是一個重要的支撐位）以來，美元/日元也重新回到了其 21 日指數移動平均線之上，現在正在測試 159.10 區域，該區域在 4 月 30 日干預驅動的急劇拋售之前曾作為支撐位。突破這一點，160.00 可能是下一個目標。</p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

西方石油

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>美元/日元在日本於四月下旬進行干預後恢復了上漲趨勢，重新回到了關鍵的 158.00 水平。儘管如此，由於美國收益率和油價上漲，日元仍然承壓，這引發了對進一步干預有效性的擔憂。前景顯示美元/日元有可能超過 160.00，但干預的收益正在減少。與美國的協調努力可能增強幹預的可信度，但目前市場對單邊行動的有效性仍持懷疑態度</p>

<p>The USD/JPY has resumed its steady climb after Japan intervened at the end of April, with further operations widely suspected in early May. Since then, price action has turned more constructive, particularly after the pair reclaimed the key 158.00 level — an important technical threshold. The Japanese yen continues to struggle despite periods of softer dollar trading, reinforcing concerns that markets are becoming increasingly comfortable testing Japanese authorities’ tolerance for further weakness. For now, the balance of risks still points towards further upside in USD/JPY outlook rather than a lasting reversal lower. Intervention may trigger sharp but short-lived pullbacks, yet recent experience suggests those moves are unlikely to hold for long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元在日本於四月底進行干預後重新開始穩步攀升，市場普遍懷疑在五月初會有進一步的干預。自那時以來，價格走勢變得更加積極，特別是在該貨幣對重新奪回關鍵的 158.00 水平後——這是一個重要的技術閾值。儘管美元交易出現了一些疲軟，日元仍然面臨困境，這加劇了市場對日本當局在進一步貶值方面容忍度的擔憂。目前，風險平衡仍然指向美元/日元前景的進一步上行，而不是持久的下行反轉。干預可能會引發劇烈但短暫的回調，但最近的經驗表明，這些波動不太可能持續很長時間。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>Intervention and its diminishing impact on USD/JPY</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>干預及其對美元/日元的影響減弱</h2>
</div><p>What is becoming increasingly evident is that markets are placing less weight on the effectiveness of intervention itself. The relatively subdued volatility suggests traders see official action as more of a temporary brake than a lasting reversal mechanism. That leaves the yen vulnerable in an environment where US yields remain elevated and global risk appetite remains uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越來越明顯的是，市場對干預本身的有效性給予的重視程度在下降。相對温和的波動性表明，交易者將官方行動視為一種臨時的制動，而不是持久的反轉機制。這使得日元在美國收益率保持高位和全球風險偏好不確定的環境中變得脆弱。</p>
</div><p>The latest bout of yen weakness comes after Japan’s Ministry of Finance finally acted on repeated warnings about speculative and one-sided currency moves, intervening through the Bank of Japan during the Golden Week holiday period. Once USD/JPY pushed through 160.00, Tokyo appeared to conclude that enough was enough, triggering its first yen-buying operation since July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近一輪日元貶值發生在日本財政部終於對關於投機性和單邊貨幣走勢的反覆警告採取行動，通過日本銀行在黃金週假期期間進行干預。當美元/日元突破 160.00 時，東京似乎認為已經夠了，觸發了自 2024 年 7 月以來首次的日元買入行動。</p>
</div><p>The intervention initially sparked a sharp rally in the yen across the board, but the underlying trend has since reasserted itself. Markets are once again questioning not only whether Tokyo will intervene again, but also how effective further action is likely to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>干預最初引發了日元在各個方面的急劇反彈，但潛在趨勢隨後重新顯現。市場再次質疑東京是否會再次干預，以及進一步行動的有效性如何。</p>
</div><h2>Why is weakening yen a bad thing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼日元貶值是個壞事？</h2>
</div><p>The core problem for Japan is that a weak yen significantly raises the cost of imported energy, food and raw materials. Given the country’s heavy dependence on energy imports, the recent rise in oil prices linked to tensions involving Iran has only intensified the pressure. While a weaker yen would ordinarily support Japanese exports, that benefit is currently being overshadowed by imported inflation and higher energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的核心問題在於，日元貶值顯著提高了進口能源、食品和原材料的成本。考慮到該國對能源進口的高度依賴，最近與伊朗相關的油價上漲只加劇了壓力。雖然日元貶值通常會支持日本出口，但這種好處目前被進口通脹和更高的能源成本所掩蓋。</p>
</div><p>If oil prices remain elevated and US Treasury yields continue to rise, the effectiveness of intervention is likely to diminish further. Under those conditions, USD/JPY could still move decisively beyond 160.00.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果油價保持高位且美國國債收益率繼續上升，干預的有效性可能會進一步減弱。在這種情況下，美元/日元仍可能果斷突破 160.00。</p>
</div><h2>Joint US-Japan efforts will be more effectively, but unlikely</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美日聯合努力將更有效，但不太可能</h2>
</div><p>The market has already observed diminishing returns from successive rounds of intervention, and Japanese authorities are well aware that foreign exchange reserves are not unlimited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場已經觀察到連續干預輪次的收益遞減，日本當局也清楚外匯儲備並非無限。</p>
</div><p>One possible avenue would be coordinated action with the United States, although Washington has so far shown little appetite for direct involvement. That said, if broad-based dollar strength were to accelerate sharply, the US Treasury could eventually work alongside Japanese authorities to stabilise the yen. Such a move would likely carry greater credibility than unilateral intervention alone, but for now there is little evidence to suggest that scenario is imminent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個可能的途徑是與美國協調行動，儘管華盛頓迄今為止對直接參與表現出較少的興趣。也就是説，如果美元的廣泛強勢加速，美國財政部最終可能會與日本當局合作以穩定日元。這種舉動的可信度可能會高於單邊干預，但目前沒有證據表明這種情況即將發生。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, the broader outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish despite repeated intervention attempts. A sustained reversal lower would probably require a meaningful decline in oil prices, which in turn depends on tangible progress between the US and Iran and a broader easing in geopolitical tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，儘管反覆嘗試干預，美元/日元的整體前景仍然看漲。持續的下行反轉可能需要油價顯著下降，而這又取決於美國與伊朗之間的實質性進展以及地緣政治緊張局勢的整體緩解。</p>
</div><h2>Technical USD/JPY outlook: Intervention risks rise again as 160 comes back into focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技術美元/日元前景：干預風險再次上升，160 再次成為焦點</h2>
</div><p>The USD/JPY outlook remains firmly pointed towards the exchange rate returning to the 160.00 area, which investors increasingly view as the line in the sand for Tokyo policymakers. If authorities refrain from stepping in around those levels again, attention is likely to shift quickly towards the 161.00 162.00 region — the zone where the Bank of Japan last intervened in July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元的前景仍然堅定地指向匯率回到 160.00 區域，投資者越來越將其視為東京政策制定者的分界線。如果當局在這些水平附近再次不採取行動，注意力可能會迅速轉向 161.00 至 162.00 區域——這是日本銀行在 2024 年 7 月最後一次干預的區域。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Since breaking above the key 157.90/158.00 area (now an important support to watch), the USD/JPY has also moved back above its 21-day exponential moving average and is now testing the 159.10 region, which previously acted as support before the sharp intervention-driven sell-off on 30 April. Break this and 160.00 could be the next stop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自突破關鍵的 157.90/158.00 區域（現在是一個重要的支撐位）以來，美元/日元也重新回到了其 21 日指數移動平均線之上，現在正在測試 159.10 區域，該區域在 4 月 30 日干預驅動的急劇拋售之前曾作為支撐位。突破這一點，160.00 可能是下一個目標。</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

USD/JPY outlook: Yen remains under pressure as oil and US yields press higher

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