<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png"/></p>
<p>根據世界鉑金投資委員會（WPIC）的數據，鉑金市場正面臨連續第四年的供應不足。</p>
<p>德國商業銀行的商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示，預計到 2026 年，供應缺口將達到 297,000 盎司，略高於之前的預測。</p>
<p>弗裏茨指出：“這將標誌着鉑金市場連續第四年出現供應赤字。” 他補充説，庫存預計將大幅下降。</p>
<p>“由於預計今年將出現赤字，地面庫存將降至 174.7 萬盎司，庫存使用比率將降至 22%。因此，庫存將只能滿足不到三個月的需求。”</p>
<p>過去三年的累計赤字已經達到 300 萬盎司，突顯了這種失衡的規模。去年的赤字接近 120 萬盎司，創下歷史最高紀錄。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png"/></p>
<p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
<h2>緊張局勢緩解的跡象</h2>
<p>儘管前景嚴峻，但有跡象表明緊張局勢可能正在緩解。</p>
<p>在 2026 年第一季度，鉑金市場錄得供應過剩 26.8 萬盎司，這是六個季度以來的首次過剩。相比之下，去年同期的赤字為 65.8 萬盎司，代表着 92.6 萬盎司的轉變。</p>
<p>弗裏茨解釋了這一變化：“儘管由於 ETF 資金流出、汽車行業需求疲軟和鉑金首飾需求下降，需求下降了 31%，但由於礦產生產增加和回收量上升，供應增長了 18%。”</p>
<p>礦產產量從較低的比較基數上升，南非生產商將維護計劃從第一季度轉移到第三季度。</p>
<p>與此同時，預計今年回收量將上升 9%，達到五年來的最高水平，這主要是由於汽車行業報廢的催化轉換器。</p>
<h2>各行業需求疲軟</h2>
<p>根據 WPIC 的預測，2026 年鉑金需求預計將下降 9%，降至四年來的最低點 767.4 萬盎司。</p>
<p>投資需求的下降幅度最大，預計將比去年減少一半以上。</p>
<p>鉑金 ETF 的淨流出和交易所註冊庫存的下降對市場情緒造成了沉重打擊。</p>
<p>實物需求（如鉑金條和硬幣）預計將上升，這表明一些投資者仍然偏好實物資產。但其他行業則面臨困境。</p>
<p>隨着內燃機車輛生產的下降，歐洲和日本的汽車需求正在下降，儘管北美和中國在重型車輛方面有所增長。</p>
<p>珠寶需求也面臨壓力。中國的購買量下降超過 40%，因為買家在去年激增後轉向黃金。</p>
<p>這一反轉發生在 2025 年中國鉑金首飾需求達到七年來的最高點之後。其他工業用途（如玻璃行業）正在恢復，但不足以抵消其他領域的下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png"/></p>
<p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
<h2>價格前景取決於黃金</h2>
<p>供需動態為價格呈現出複雜的局面。一方面，四年的供應不足和庫存下降暗示着上漲壓力。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>市場已經連續四年供應不足，庫存因此大幅下降，這表明鉑金價格將會上漲。這是通過增加供應和減少需求來重新平衡市場的唯一途徑。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>另一方面，回收供應的增加和需求的疲軟可能會限制漲幅。</p>
<p>“然而，與去年相比，預計供應赤字將減少近 90 萬盎司。如果需求趨勢持續，礦產和回收的供應大幅上升，市場可能會轉向供應過剩——正如第一季度所發生的那樣，” 他警告道。</p>
<p>德國商業銀行預計到年底鉑金價格將達到每盎司 2300 美元，儘管弗裏茨強調這一預測主要與黃金價格上漲的預期有關，而不是鉑金自身的基本面。</p>
<h2>處於轉型中的市場</h2>
<p>鉑金市場正處於結構性供應不足與週期性疲軟之間。</p>
<p>庫存正在減少，但需求正在減弱，尤其是在投資和珠寶領域。</p>
<p>回收量上升，反映出價格上漲和汽車行業的技術變革。</p>
<p>對於投資者來説，信息很明確：2026 年鉑金價格的走勢將更依賴於其自身的基本面，而不是更廣泛的貴金屬市場，尤其是黃金。</p>
<p>如果黃金如預期上漲，鉑金可能會隨之上漲。但如果需求繼續疲軟，回收進一步擴大，市場可能會轉向過剩，從而限制價格上漲。</p>
<p>鉑金赤字預計將在 2026 年縮小，但庫存仍然承受壓力的文章首發於 Invezz。</p>

華夏中證滬深港黃金產業股票ETF

易方達黃金礦-U

黃金 MiniShares 信託 - SPDR

<p>鉑金市場預計將面臨連續第四年的供應不足，預計到 2026 年將出現 29.7 萬盎司的短缺。庫存預計將急劇下降，滿足需求的時間不足三個月。儘管近期出現了供應過剩，但需求預計將下降，特別是在投資和珠寶領域。德國商業銀行預測，鉑金價格到年底可能達到每盎司 2300 美元，受黃金價格的影響大於鉑金基本面的影響</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png"/></p>
<p>The platinum market is heading for its fourth consecutive year of undersupply, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據世界鉑金投資委員會（WPIC）的數據，鉑金市場正面臨連續第四年的供應不足。</p>
</div><p>Commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank AG said the shortfall is expected to reach 297,000 ounces in 2026, slightly higher than earlier forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行的商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示，預計到 2026 年，供應缺口將達到 297,000 盎司，略高於之前的預測。</p>
</div><p>“This would mark the fourth consecutive year of a supply deficit in the platinum market,” Fritsch noted, adding that inventories are set to fall sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗裏茨指出：“這將標誌着鉑金市場連續第四年出現供應赤字。” 他補充説，庫存預計將大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>“With the deficit expected this year, above-ground stocks are set to fall to 1.747 million ounces and the stock-to-use ratio to 22%. Stocks would therefore cover demand for less than three months.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由於預計今年將出現赤字，地面庫存將降至 174.7 萬盎司，庫存使用比率將降至 22%。因此，庫存將只能滿足不到三個月的需求。”</p>
</div><p>The cumulative deficit over the past three years has already reached 3 million ounces, underscoring the scale of the imbalance. Last year’s deficit was nearly 1.2 million ounces, the largest on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去三年的累計赤字已經達到 300 萬盎司，突顯了這種失衡的規模。去年的赤字接近 120 萬盎司，創下歷史最高紀錄。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
</div><h2>Signs of easing tightness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>緊張局勢緩解的跡象</h2>
</div><p>Despite the grim outlook, there are signs that tightness may be easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管前景嚴峻，但有跡象表明緊張局勢可能正在緩解。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter of 2026, the platinum market recorded a supply surplus of 268,000 ounces—its first in six quarters. That compares with a deficit of 658,000 ounces in the same period last year, representing a swing of 926,000 ounces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年第一季度，鉑金市場錄得供應過剩 26.8 萬盎司，這是六個季度以來的首次過剩。相比之下，去年同期的赤字為 65.8 萬盎司，代表着 92.6 萬盎司的轉變。</p>
</div><p>Fritsch explained the shift: “Whilst demand fell by 31% due to ETF outflows, weaker demand from the automotive industry and for platinum jewellery, supply rose by 18% due to higher mine production and increased recycling.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗裏茨解釋了這一變化：“儘管由於 ETF 資金流出、汽車行業需求疲軟和鉑金首飾需求下降，需求下降了 31%，但由於礦產生產增加和回收量上升，供應增長了 18%。”</p>
</div><p>Mine output rose from a low comparative base, with South African producers shifting maintenance schedules from the first to the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礦產產量從較低的比較基數上升，南非生產商將維護計劃從第一季度轉移到第三季度。</p>
</div><p>Recycling, meanwhile, is expected to rise 9% this year to a five-year high, driven largely by scrapped catalytic converters from the automotive sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，預計今年回收量將上升 9%，達到五年來的最高水平，這主要是由於汽車行業報廢的催化轉換器。</p>
</div><h2>Demand weakens across sectors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>各行業需求疲軟</h2>
</div><p>Platinum demand is forecast to fall 9% in 2026 to a four-year low of 7.674 million ounces, according to WPIC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 WPIC 的預測，2026 年鉑金需求預計將下降 9%，降至四年來的最低點 767.4 萬盎司。</p>
</div><p>The sharpest decline is in investment demand, which is expected to more than halve compared with last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資需求的下降幅度最大，預計將比去年減少一半以上。</p>
</div><p>Net outflows from platinum ETFs and a drop in exchange-registered stocks are weighing heavily on sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉑金 ETF 的淨流出和交易所註冊庫存的下降對市場情緒造成了沉重打擊。</p>
</div><p>Physical demand for bars and coins is expected to rise, suggesting some investors still favor tangible holdings. But other sectors are struggling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實物需求（如鉑金條和硬幣）預計將上升，這表明一些投資者仍然偏好實物資產。但其他行業則面臨困境。</p>
</div><p>Automotive demand is falling in Europe and Japan as production of internal combustion vehicles declines, though North America and China are seeing gains, particularly in heavy-duty vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着內燃機車輛生產的下降，歐洲和日本的汽車需求正在下降，儘管北美和中國在重型車輛方面有所增長。</p>
</div><p>Jewellery demand is also under pressure. Purchases in China have slumped more than 40%, as buyers shift back to gold after last year’s surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>珠寶需求也面臨壓力。中國的購買量下降超過 40%，因為買家在去年激增後轉向黃金。</p>
</div><p>That reversal comes after platinum jewellery demand in China hit a seven-year high in 2025. Other industrial uses, such as in the glass industry, are recovering, but not enough to offset declines elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一反轉發生在 2025 年中國鉑金首飾需求達到七年來的最高點之後。其他工業用途（如玻璃行業）正在恢復，但不足以抵消其他領域的下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
</div><h2>Price outlook hinges on gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>價格前景取決於黃金</h2>
</div><p>The supply-demand dynamics present a mixed picture for prices. On one hand, four years of undersupply and falling inventories suggest upward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供需動態為價格呈現出複雜的局面。一方面，四年的供應不足和庫存下降暗示着上漲壓力。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The fact that the market has been undersupplied for four years and that inventories have consequently fallen significantly points to a rise in the platinum price. This is the only way to rebalance the market via an increase in supply and a decline in demand.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>市場已經連續四年供應不足，庫存因此大幅下降，這表明鉑金價格將會上漲。這是通過增加供應和減少需求來重新平衡市場的唯一途徑。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>On the other hand, rising recycled supply and weakening demand could limit gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，回收供應的增加和需求的疲軟可能會限制漲幅。</p>
</div><p>“Compared with the previous year, however, the supply deficit is expected to be almost 900,000 ounces lower. Should demand trends continue and supply from mining and recycling rise more sharply, the market could shift to a supply surplus – as already happened in the first quarter,” he cautioned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，與去年相比，預計供應赤字將減少近 90 萬盎司。如果需求趨勢持續，礦產和回收的供應大幅上升，市場可能會轉向供應過剩——正如第一季度所發生的那樣，” 他警告道。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank expects platinum to reach $2,300 per troy ounce by year-end, though Fritsch emphasized that this forecast is primarily tied to expectations of a rising gold price rather than platinum’s own fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行預計到年底鉑金價格將達到每盎司 2300 美元，儘管弗裏茨強調這一預測主要與黃金價格上漲的預期有關，而不是鉑金自身的基本面。</p>
</div><h2>A market in transition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>處於轉型中的市場</h2>
</div><p>The platinum market is caught between structural undersupply and cyclical weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉑金市場正處於結構性供應不足與週期性疲軟之間。</p>
</div><p>Inventories are shrinking, but demand is faltering, particularly in investment and jewellery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫存正在減少，但需求正在減弱，尤其是在投資和珠寶領域。</p>
</div><p>Recycling is rising, reflecting both higher prices and technological shifts in the automotive sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回收量上升，反映出價格上漲和汽車行業的技術變革。</p>
</div><p>For investors, the message is clear: platinum’s price trajectory in 2026 will depend less on its own fundamentals and more on the broader precious metals complex, especially gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者來説，信息很明確：2026 年鉑金價格的走勢將更依賴於其自身的基本面，而不是更廣泛的貴金屬市場，尤其是黃金。</p>
</div><p>If gold rallies as expected, platinum may follow. But if demand continues to weaken and recycling expands further, the market could tip into surplus, capping price gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果黃金如預期上漲，鉑金可能會隨之上漲。但如果需求繼續疲軟，回收進一步擴大，市場可能會轉向過剩，從而限制價格上漲。</p>
</div><p>The post Platinum deficit set to narrow in 2026 but inventories remain under strain appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉑金赤字預計將在 2026 年縮小，但庫存仍然承受壓力的文章首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

鉑金的供應缺口預計將在 2026 年縮小，但庫存仍然面臨壓力