<p>作者：Claudia Assis 和 Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>最近，繞過好望角和通過巴拿馬運河的油輪通行量達到了新高</p>
<p>Tradition Energy 的 Gary Cunningham 表示，從波斯灣運輸石油的管道 &#34;僅運輸了通常通過油輪運輸的一小部分&#34;。</p>
<p>由於霍爾木茲海峽幾乎停滯不前，原油和重要的原油產品如汽油和液化氣正在繞道前往目的地，各國被迫通過幾個月前相對安靜的路線來滿足其能源需求。</p>
<p>自美國和以色列在二月底與伊朗開戰以來，繞過非洲好望角的油輪和幹散貨船的交通量按船舶運載能力計算比之前高出約 20%。在四月中旬達到了歷史最高點。</p>
<p>通過巴拿馬運河的油輪交通量也在增加，三月底達到了至少五年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>這些路線雖然不是完美的解決方案，但各國和公司正在採用這些替代方案，以便從其他地方採購原油、精煉產品和其他商品，以替代曾經通過霍爾木茲海峽來自波斯灣國家的部分產品。這包括美國的石油，因為美國的原油出口在四月底創下了新高。</p>
<p>根據 Veson Nautical 的數據，從西向東、朝向亞洲的繞過好望角的油輪和幹散貨運輸能力約為 7800 萬噸，這是衡量船舶可承載量的標準。朝向美洲和歐洲的流量約為 7700 萬噸。</p>
<p>與戰爭開始後的第一週，即 3 月 6 日結束的一週的 6400 萬噸和 6360 萬噸相比，情況有所變化。</p>
<p>查看巴拿馬運河，數據分析公司 Kpler 表示，連接太平洋和大西洋的設施的每週油輪通行量在五月初上升至 76 艘，而三月初每週為 57 艘。</p>
<p>一些通過巴拿馬運河的油輪正在運輸原油，但其他一些則是將汽油和其他原油蒸餾物從美國墨西哥灣沿岸運輸到美國西海岸，後者在很大程度上依賴於來自其他地方的汽油，Bloomberg Intelligence 的分析師 Brett Gibbs 説。這些航程中有一些是由外國船隻完成的，因為美國暫時放棄了瓊斯法案。他表示，特朗普政府在三月發佈了對 1920 年法律的 60 天豁免，該法律限制了美國目的地之間的水上石油運輸，僅限於美國註冊和建造的船隻。</p>
<p>他説，從東向西經過好望角的許多船隻可能正在向歐洲運輸精煉產品。西向東的交通主要是亞洲買家轉向美國採購原油，Gibbs 説。</p>
<p>即使繞過好望角的風險較小，儘管這是一條更長的航程——根據目的地，亞洲到歐洲的航程增加約兩週。即使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，美國、以色列和伊朗達成協議，風險厭惡的航運公司仍可能繼續偏好繞過好望角的通行，Gibbs 説。</p>
<p>這一航線在四月中旬開始顯示出交通量的上升。這反映了公司和國家在危機展開時首先處理庫存的情況，Gibbs 説。</p>
<p>集裝箱航線也進行了類似的調整，儘管增加了成本和航程，集裝箱運輸公司仍然繼續偏好安全的好望角航線。</p>
<p>幾十艘原油油輪已經通過海峽，緩解了能源市場的壓力，沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋加大了通過管道運輸部分能源產品的努力。</p>
<p>但這遠遠低於每天通過海峽運輸的約 2000 萬桶原油和原油產品。根據一些計算，全球每天缺少 1000 萬到 1200 萬桶這些產品。</p>
<p>原油庫存迅速減少，導致全球能源價格上漲，包括美國，零售汽油的全國平均價格正逐漸接近每加侖 5 美元，正值夏季需求高峰即將來臨之際。原油期貨（CL00）（BRN00）徘徊在每桶 100 美元左右。</p>
<p>上週，伊朗成立了波斯灣海峽管理局，旨在宣示其在該水道的主導地位。摩根大通的分析師在週二的一份報告中表示，這是對全球最重要的石油瓶頸施加影響的更微妙方式。</p>
<p>他們表示，&#34;伊朗似乎並不是要完全關閉海峽，而是尋求對其進行監管。&#34;</p>
<p>德黑蘭允許遵循規則並獲得事先授權的船隻通行，這導致最近幾天通過的油輪數量有所增加，儘管這一數字仍遠低於戰爭前每天約 135 次的通行量，甚至低於四月中旬超過 20 次的通行量，那時人們對美國和伊朗達成協議的希望未能實現。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚在新系統下是否會收取費用。在衝突早期，伊朗據報道對幾艘船的安全通行收取過過路費，或在談判後允許友好國家的船隻通行。伊朗的最新舉動被批評為違反國際海事法。</p>
<p>美國試圖開闢自己的霍爾木茲安全通道，設立一條緊貼阿曼海岸的航道，但所謂的自由行動幾乎沒有啓動就被特朗普總統叫停，他表示要給談判更多時間。</p>
<p>一些海灣國家如沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋已專注於通過管道出口其石油。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯最近表示，其東 - 西管道將能源出口輸送到紅海的港口，已達到每日 700 萬桶的最大容量。阿聯酋在週五表示，正在加快一個管道項目，期望通過富查伊拉港口城市將出口能力翻倍，該地有多個石油和工業設施。現有管道每天可運輸高達 180 萬桶的石油。</p>
<p>運輸石油向西至紅海或向東南至阿曼灣的管道 “僅能運輸通常通過油輪運輸的一小部分”，能源諮詢和採購公司 Tradition Energy 的市場研究主任 Gary Cunningham 表示。</p>
<p>這樣的項目通常需要數年才能完成，因此管道可能 “更多是為了阻止伊朗在未來將霍爾木茲海峽作為經濟武器，而不是對當前問題的真正緩解，” 他説。</p>
<p>閲讀：霍爾木茲海峽在未來可能變得不那麼重要 - 這是為什麼</p>
<p>阿聯酋的管道項目目前正在建設中，預計將在 2027 年投入運營，該國表示。關於該設施的先前時間表或具體路線尚無消息。</p>
<p>“我的理解是，這將沿着現有路線進行，這在地形和任何管道所需的前期開發工作方面都是合理的，” 萊斯大學能源研究中心的高級主任 Kenneth Medlock 表示。</p>
<p>富查伊拉的多個設施在戰爭中遭到據稱是伊朗的無人機和導彈攻擊，部分設施需要數年才能修復。管道並非免受攻擊，但相對來説對無人機攻擊具有一定的韌性，並且可以快速修復，Medlock 表示。</p>
<p>霍爾木茲危機的長期解決方案將包括更多的管道，無論是通過恢復退役設施還是增加新路線。儘管霍爾木茲長期以來被認為是全球經濟最重要的瓶頸之一，但這樣的項目一直被視為過於昂貴和雄心勃勃而無法嘗試。戰爭改變了這種計算。</p>
<p>“我們確實認為，中東能源出口國將得出這樣的結論，即這樣的投資是必要的，因為伊朗將始終保留在未來干擾油輪交通的能力，” Catalyst Funds 的投資組合經理 Simon Lack 表示。“霍爾木茲海峽的重要性將逐漸降低，但這需要很多年。”</p>
<p>不要錯過：由於伊朗戰爭，集裝箱航運路線正在變化 - 商品價格可能會上漲。</p>
<p>-Claudia Assis -Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>05-19-26 1214ET</p>

西方石油

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

<p>由於霍爾木茲海峽幾乎停滯，原油和成品油現在需要走更長的路線，繞過非洲好望角和通過巴拿馬運河的油輪交通達到了創紀錄的高點。美國的原油出口激增，儘管一些油輪緩解了能源市場的壓力，但全球每天仍缺少 1000 萬到 1200 萬桶。這一中斷正在推高全球能源價格，隨着夏季需求的臨近，美國汽油價格接近每加侖 5 美元</p>

<p>By Claudia Assis and Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Claudia Assis 和 Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>Tanker transits around the Cape of Good Hope and through the Panama Canal hit highs recently</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，繞過好望角和通過巴拿馬運河的油輪通行量達到了新高</p>
</div><p>Pipelines that transport oil from the Persian Gulf &#34;only carry a fraction of what normally travels via tanker,&#34; said Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tradition Energy 的 Gary Cunningham 表示，從波斯灣運輸石油的管道 &#34;僅運輸了通常通過油輪運輸的一小部分&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Crude oil and vital crude products such as gasoline and cooking gas are taking the long way to their destinations, as the near-standstill at the Strait of Hormuz has forced countries to meet their energy needs via routes that were relatively quiet only a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於霍爾木茲海峽幾乎停滯不前，原油和重要的原油產品如汽油和液化氣正在繞道前往目的地，各國被迫通過幾個月前相對安靜的路線來滿足其能源需求。</p>
</div><p>Tanker and dry-bulk-vessel traffic around Africa's Cape of Good Hope is about 20% higher, as measured by vessel capacity, than before the U.S. and Israel launched the war with Iran at the end of February. It reached a record high in mid-April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自美國和以色列在二月底與伊朗開戰以來，繞過非洲好望角的油輪和幹散貨船的交通量按船舶運載能力計算比之前高出約 20%。在四月中旬達到了歷史最高點。</p>
</div><p>Tanker traffic through the Panama Canal is also increasing, hitting the highest level in at least five years in late March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過巴拿馬運河的油輪交通量也在增加，三月底達到了至少五年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>These routes represent imperfect solutions, but they are workarounds that countries and companies are embracing as they go elsewhere to procure their crude, refined products and other commodities to replace at least some of the products that used to come from Persian Gulf countries through Hormuz. That includes U.S. oil, as U.S. crude exports hit a record in late April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些路線雖然不是完美的解決方案，但各國和公司正在採用這些替代方案，以便從其他地方採購原油、精煉產品和其他商品，以替代曾經通過霍爾木茲海峽來自波斯灣國家的部分產品。這包括美國的石油，因為美國的原油出口在四月底創下了新高。</p>
</div><p>According to Veson Nautical, tanker and dry-bulk shipping capacity moving around the Cape of Good Hope from west to east, toward Asia, stands at about 78 million deadweight tonnage, which is a measure of how much a ship can carry. Flows from east to west, toward the Americas and Europe, are around 77 million DWT.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Veson Nautical 的數據，從西向東、朝向亞洲的繞過好望角的油輪和幹散貨運輸能力約為 7800 萬噸，這是衡量船舶可承載量的標準。朝向美洲和歐洲的流量約為 7700 萬噸。</p>
</div><p>That is compared with 64 million DWT and 63.6 million DWT, respectively, in the week ended March 6, the first full week after the start of the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與戰爭開始後的第一週，即 3 月 6 日結束的一週的 6400 萬噸和 6360 萬噸相比，情況有所變化。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the Panama Canal, data-analytics company Kpler said that weekly tanker transits through the facility linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have risen to 76 in early May, the latest available week, compared with 57 a week in early March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看巴拿馬運河，數據分析公司 Kpler 表示，連接太平洋和大西洋的設施的每週油輪通行量在五月初上升至 76 艘，而三月初每週為 57 艘。</p>
</div><p>Some of the tankers transiting the Panama Canal are carrying crude oil, but others are carrying gasoline and other crude distillates from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the U.S. West Coast, which is heavily dependent on gasoline from elsewhere, said Brett Gibbs, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Some of those trips are being made by foreign-flagged ships because the U.S. temporarily waived the Jones Act, he said. The Trump administration in March issued a 60-day waiver of the 1920 law, which restricts waterborne oil shipments between U.S. destinations to ships that are U.S.-flagged and U.S.-built.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些通過巴拿馬運河的油輪正在運輸原油，但其他一些則是將汽油和其他原油蒸餾物從美國墨西哥灣沿岸運輸到美國西海岸，後者在很大程度上依賴於來自其他地方的汽油，Bloomberg Intelligence 的分析師 Brett Gibbs 説。這些航程中有一些是由外國船隻完成的，因為美國暫時放棄了瓊斯法案。他表示，特朗普政府在三月發佈了對 1920 年法律的 60 天豁免，該法律限制了美國目的地之間的水上石油運輸，僅限於美國註冊和建造的船隻。</p>
</div><p>Many of the ships taking the Cape of Good Hope route from east to west are likely carrying refined products to Europe, he said. West-to-east traffic is likely mostly Asian buyers turning to the U.S. for their crude oil, Gibbs said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，從東向西經過好望角的許多船隻可能正在向歐洲運輸精煉產品。西向東的交通主要是亞洲買家轉向美國採購原油，Gibbs 説。</p>
</div><p>Going around the cape is less risky even if it's a longer trip - it adds about two weeks to an Asia-to-Europe route, depending on destinations. For the balance of 2026, even if Hormuz reopens and the U.S., Israel and Iran reach a deal, risk-averse shippers are likely to continue to favor passage around the cape, Gibbs said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使繞過好望角的風險較小，儘管這是一條更長的航程——根據目的地，亞洲到歐洲的航程增加約兩週。即使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，美國、以色列和伊朗達成協議，風險厭惡的航運公司仍可能繼續偏好繞過好望角的通行，Gibbs 説。</p>
</div><p>This route started to show an uptick in traffic around mid-April. That reflects how companies and countries first worked through inventories as the crisis unfolded, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一航線在四月中旬開始顯示出交通量的上升。這反映了公司和國家在危機展開時首先處理庫存的情況，Gibbs 説。</p>
</div><p>Container routes have been similarly rearranged, with container-shipping companies continuing to favor the safety of the cape route, even though it adds to the cost and length of their trips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>集裝箱航線也進行了類似的調整，儘管增加了成本和航程，集裝箱運輸公司仍然繼續偏好安全的好望角航線。</p>
</div><p>A few dozen crude tankers have transited out of the strait, taking some pressure off energy markets, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have stepped up efforts to move some of their energy products through pipelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾十艘原油油輪已經通過海峽，緩解了能源市場的壓力，沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋加大了通過管道運輸部分能源產品的努力。</p>
</div><p>But that's nowhere close to the about 20 million barrels of crude and crude products that used to move through the strait every day. By some calculations, the world is missing between 10 million and 12 million barrels a day of those products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這遠遠低於每天通過海峽運輸的約 2000 萬桶原油和原油產品。根據一些計算，全球每天缺少 1000 萬到 1200 萬桶這些產品。</p>
</div><p>Crude stockpiles are quickly dwindling, leading to higher energy prices around the world, including in the U.S., where the national average for retail gasoline has been creeping up closer to $5 a gallon just as peak summer demand approaches. Crude-oil futures (CL00) (BRN00) are hovering around $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油庫存迅速減少，導致全球能源價格上漲，包括美國，零售汽油的全國平均價格正逐漸接近每加侖 5 美元，正值夏季需求高峰即將來臨之際。原油期貨（CL00）（BRN00）徘徊在每桶 100 美元左右。</p>
</div><p>Iran last week created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority with the aim of asserting its dominance in the waterway. It's a subtler way to exert leverage over the world's most important oil chokepoint, analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a note Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，伊朗成立了波斯灣海峽管理局，旨在宣示其在該水道的主導地位。摩根大通的分析師在週二的一份報告中表示，這是對全球最重要的石油瓶頸施加影響的更微妙方式。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Rather than closing the strait outright, Iran appears to be seeking to regulate it,&#34; they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們表示，&#34;伊朗似乎並不是要完全關閉海峽，而是尋求對其進行監管。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Tehran is allowing vessels that follow rules and obtain prior authorization to transit, which has led to an uptick in tankers making the crossing in recent days, although the number is still far from the about 135 daily crossings before the war or even from a mid-April spurt of more than 20 daily crossings that came amid hopes for a deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has failed to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德黑蘭允許遵循規則並獲得事先授權的船隻通行，這導致最近幾天通過的油輪數量有所增加，儘管這一數字仍遠低於戰爭前每天約 135 次的通行量，甚至低於四月中旬超過 20 次的通行量，那時人們對美國和伊朗達成協議的希望未能實現。</p>
</div><p>It is unclear if payments are being exacted under the new system. Earlier in the conflict, Iran reportedly charged tolls for the safe passage of several ships or allowed the transit of ships of friendly nations after negotiations. Iran's latest move has been criticized as violating international maritime law.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚在新系統下是否會收取費用。在衝突早期，伊朗據報道對幾艘船的安全通行收取過過路費，或在談判後允許友好國家的船隻通行。伊朗的最新舉動被批評為違反國際海事法。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. attempted to carve out its own Hormuz safe passage with a shipping lane hugging the Oman coast, but the so-called Operation Freedom barely got off the ground before President Donald Trump halted it, saying that he was giving more time for negotiations to work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國試圖開闢自己的霍爾木茲安全通道，設立一條緊貼阿曼海岸的航道，但所謂的自由行動幾乎沒有啓動就被特朗普總統叫停，他表示要給談判更多時間。</p>
</div><p>Some Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have focused on exporting their oil through pipelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些海灣國家如沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋已專注於通過管道出口其石油。</p>
</div><p>Saudi Arabia said recently that its East-West pipeline, which sends energy exports to a port in the Red Sea, had reached its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels a day. And the U.A.E. on Friday said it was fast-tracking a pipeline project, hoping to double its export capacity through the port city of Fujairah, the location of several oil and industrial facilities. The existing pipeline carries up to 1.8 million barrels of oil a day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯最近表示，其東 - 西管道將能源出口輸送到紅海的港口，已達到每日 700 萬桶的最大容量。阿聯酋在週五表示，正在加快一個管道項目，期望通過富查伊拉港口城市將出口能力翻倍，該地有多個石油和工業設施。現有管道每天可運輸高達 180 萬桶的石油。</p>
</div><p>Pipelines that transport oil westward to the Red Sea or southeast to the Gulf of Oman &#34;only carry a fraction of what normally travels via tanker,&#34; said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at energy consulting and procurement firm Tradition Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>運輸石油向西至紅海或向東南至阿曼灣的管道 “僅能運輸通常通過油輪運輸的一小部分”，能源諮詢和採購公司 Tradition Energy 的市場研究主任 Gary Cunningham 表示。</p>
</div><p>Such projects also take years to complete, so pipelines might be &#34;more of a solution to stop Iran from using the strait as an economic weapon in the future than any real relief to the issues of today,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這樣的項目通常需要數年才能完成，因此管道可能 “更多是為了阻止伊朗在未來將霍爾木茲海峽作為經濟武器，而不是對當前問題的真正緩解，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>Read: The Strait of Hormuz could matter a lot less in the future - here's how</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：霍爾木茲海峽在未來可能變得不那麼重要 - 這是為什麼</p>
</div><p>The U.A.E. pipeline project is currently under construction and is expected to become operational in 2027, that country said. There was no word on the previous timeline for the facility or on a precise route.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿聯酋的管道項目目前正在建設中，預計將在 2027 年投入運營，該國表示。關於該設施的先前時間表或具體路線尚無消息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My understanding is that this will follow the existing route, which makes sense given the terrain and predevelopment work that is required for any pipeline,&#34; said Kenneth Medlock, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我的理解是，這將沿着現有路線進行，這在地形和任何管道所需的前期開發工作方面都是合理的，” 萊斯大學能源研究中心的高級主任 Kenneth Medlock 表示。</p>
</div><p>Several facilities at Fujairah have been damaged during the war by alleged Iranian drone and missile attacks, and some will take years to repair. Pipelines are not immune to attacks, but they are relatively resilient to drone attacks and can be repaired quickly, Medlock said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富查伊拉的多個設施在戰爭中遭到據稱是伊朗的無人機和導彈攻擊，部分設施需要數年才能修復。管道並非免受攻擊，但相對來説對無人機攻擊具有一定的韌性，並且可以快速修復，Medlock 表示。</p>
</div><p>Longer-term solutions for the Hormuz crisis would include even more pipelines, either by reviving decommissioned facilities or adding routes. Even though Hormuz has been long known as one of the most consequential chokepoints for the global economy, such projects had been viewed as too expensive and too ambitious to attempt. The war changed that calculus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲危機的長期解決方案將包括更多的管道，無論是通過恢復退役設施還是增加新路線。儘管霍爾木茲長期以來被認為是全球經濟最重要的瓶頸之一，但這樣的項目一直被視為過於昂貴和雄心勃勃而無法嘗試。戰爭改變了這種計算。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We do think that Middle East energy exporters will conclude that such investments are necessary because Iran will always retain the ability to disrupt tanker traffic in the future,&#34; said Simon Lack, a portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds. &#34;Gradually the Strait of Hormuz will lose importance, but it will take many years.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們確實認為，中東能源出口國將得出這樣的結論，即這樣的投資是必要的，因為伊朗將始終保留在未來干擾油輪交通的能力，” Catalyst Funds 的投資組合經理 Simon Lack 表示。“霍爾木茲海峽的重要性將逐漸降低，但這需要很多年。”</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Container shipping routes are shifting due to the Iran war - prices of goods could go higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要錯過：由於伊朗戰爭，集裝箱航運路線正在變化 - 商品價格可能會上漲。</p>
</div><p>-Claudia Assis -Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Claudia Assis -Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 1214ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 1214ET</p>
</div>

Crude oil is going the long way around the world as countries scramble to plug Hormuz supply hole

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由於各國爭相填補霍爾木茲供應缺口，原油正在繞道全球運輸