<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>四月底的會議是鮑威爾作為美聯儲主席的最後一次會議</p>
<p>加利福尼亞州阿罕布拉的一家超市展示了咖啡價格。</p>
<p>美聯儲官員對企業如何應對能源衝擊有着第一手的觀察。上個月為期兩天的會議紀要將於週三下午發佈，可能會揭示企業是否將這些上漲的價格轉嫁給消費者。</p>
<p>這份紀要涵蓋了鮑威爾作為主席的最後一次會議，可能還會提供美聯儲官員在凱文·沃什接任主席時對利率政策的思考。沃什在過去一年競選這一職位時表示，他希望降息，這是白宮首選的政策方向。但持續高企的通脹可能使降息的理由難以成立。</p>
<p>閲讀更多：特朗普表示他會讓沃什 “隨心所欲” 地處理利率。這是美聯儲觀察者一直在關注的言論。</p>
<p>消費者通脹在四月份加速至 3.8%，為三年來的最高水平，而核心價格（不包括食品和能源價格）上漲了 2.8%。</p>
<p>閲讀：高油價和通脹讓人們感到壓力</p>
<p>Janney Capital Management 的首席固定收益策略師蓋·勒巴斯表示，紀要中最有趣的觀察點是美聯儲官員是否看到能源價格飆升對核心指標的 “傳導” 跡象。</p>
<p>勒巴斯在一封電子郵件中表示：“地區美聯儲銀行與其轄區內的企業保持頻繁聯繫，這些企業對它們在多大程度上會根據能源成本的上漲提高價格有直接的洞察。”</p>
<p>在正常情況下，美聯儲不會因能源價格上漲而改變其利率政策，因為這些價格通常會在不引發通脹螺旋的情況下消退。</p>
<p>但官員們將關注傳導的程度。他表示，在情況更加明朗之前，他們將保持觀望。</p>
<p>勒巴斯表示：“美聯儲不會因為油價上漲而加息，但他們會因為油價上漲而暫停降息。”</p>
<p>美聯儲四月份會議的紀要將於週三下午 2 點發布。</p>
<p>上個月會議上歷史性高水平的分歧</p>
<p>在美聯儲四月份的會議上，政策制定者維持利率不變，並保持 “寬鬆偏向” 的表述，暗示他們的下一步可能是降息。這導致了四個反對意見，這是自 1992 年以來最多的。</p>
<p>其中三個反對意見來自希望取消這一寬鬆偏向併發出下一步可能是加息或降息信號的地區美聯儲主席。</p>
<p>美聯儲觀察者表示，他們將密切關注紀要，以瞭解這三位反對者得到了多少其他官員的支持。</p>
<p>在三月份的會議上，只有 “一些” 政策制定者表示，取消寬鬆偏向有 “強烈理由”。</p>
<p>野村的高級美國經濟學家傑里米·施瓦茨表示，四月份的紀要將顯示 “許多” 參與者直接主張轉向中性指導，或者至少表示他們可能支持調整。</p>
<p>鮑威爾告訴記者，這種對寬鬆偏向的少數意見可能在下次美聯儲會議（6 月 16-17 日）上成為多數意見。</p>
<p>高頻經濟學的首席經濟學家卡爾·温伯格表示：“無論上個月反對者可能獲得的沉默支持有多少，6 月份可能會有更多。”</p>
<p>債券收益率急劇上升，表明市場對美聯儲應對高通脹的準備感到擔憂。</p>
<p>勒巴斯表示，市場對此 “方向性轉變” 非常清楚。</p>
<p>“我們不知道的是，這種偏好在多大程度上是為了抵消即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什被認為的鴿派傾向，” 勒巴斯説。</p>
<p>美聯儲的紀要不會阻礙收益率的上升，花旗集團的美國首席經濟學家安德魯·霍倫霍斯特表示。</p>
<p>他在給客户的報告中表示：“美聯儲官員對勞動力市場的關注減少，而對通脹的關注增加。”</p>
<p>-Greg Robb</p>
<p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>05-19-26 1502ET</p>

GDXY

實物黃金股 ETF - ETFS

金礦小盤股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>即將發佈的美聯儲四月會議紀要可能會揭示企業是否將更高的能源成本轉嫁給消費者。隨着四月份通脹上升至 3.8%，美聯儲官員正在密切關注這一情況，因為他們在新主席 Kevin Warsh 的領導下考慮利率政策。會議紀要還將突出政策制定者在放鬆偏向方面的重大分歧，表明未來利率決策可能發生變化。市場反應表明對美聯儲應對通脹的方式存在擔憂，債券收益率因此上升</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Meeting at end of April was Powell's last as Fed chair</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月底的會議是鮑威爾作為美聯儲主席的最後一次會議</p>
</div><p>Coffee prices are displayed at a supermarket in Alhambra, Calif.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加利福尼亞州阿罕布拉的一家超市展示了咖啡價格。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials have a front-row seat to how businesses are reacting to the energy shock. Minutes from their two-day meeting last month, which will be published Wednesday afternoon, could shed light on whether firms are passing these higher prices to their consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員對企業如何應對能源衝擊有着第一手的觀察。上個月為期兩天的會議紀要將於週三下午發佈，可能會揭示企業是否將這些上漲的價格轉嫁給消費者。</p>
</div><p>The minutes, which cover the last meeting with Jerome Powell as chair, may also provide insight into how Fed officials are thinking about interest rate policy as Kevin Warsh takes over as chair. As Warsh campaigned for the job over the past year, he's indicated he'd like to cut rates, the White House's preferred policy approach. But persistently high inflation could make cuts difficult to justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這份紀要涵蓋了鮑威爾作為主席的最後一次會議，可能還會提供美聯儲官員在凱文·沃什接任主席時對利率政策的思考。沃什在過去一年競選這一職位時表示，他希望降息，這是白宮首選的政策方向。但持續高企的通脹可能使降息的理由難以成立。</p>
</div><p>Read more: Trump says he'll let Warsh 'do what he wants to do' with interest rates. It's a remark that Fed watchers have been bracing for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多：特朗普表示他會讓沃什 “隨心所欲” 地處理利率。這是美聯儲觀察者一直在關注的言論。</p>
</div><p>Consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest reading in three years, while core prices, excluding food and energy prices, rose at a 2.8% rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者通脹在四月份加速至 3.8%，為三年來的最高水平，而核心價格（不包括食品和能源價格）上漲了 2.8%。</p>
</div><p>Read: High gas prices and inflation are stressing people out</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：高油價和通脹讓人們感到壓力</p>
</div><p>Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Capital Management, said the most interesting thing to watch for in the minutes is whether Fed officials see hints of a &#34;pass-through&#34; from surging energy prices into the core measure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Janney Capital Management 的首席固定收益策略師蓋·勒巴斯表示，紀要中最有趣的觀察點是美聯儲官員是否看到能源價格飆升對核心指標的 “傳導” 跡象。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Regional Federal Reserve banks have frequent contact with businesses in their districts that have direct insight into whether and how much they'll increase their prices based on higher energy costs,&#34; LeBas said in an email.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒巴斯在一封電子郵件中表示：“地區美聯儲銀行與其轄區內的企業保持頻繁聯繫，這些企業對它們在多大程度上會根據能源成本的上漲提高價格有直接的洞察。”</p>
</div><p>In normal times, the Fed won't change its interest rate policy based on higher energy prices, which tend to fade without causing an inflationary spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情況下，美聯儲不會因能源價格上漲而改變其利率政策，因為這些價格通常會在不引發通脹螺旋的情況下消退。</p>
</div><p>But officials will focus on the degree of pass-through. And until the picture is clearer, they will stay on hold, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但官員們將關注傳導的程度。他表示，在情況更加明朗之前，他們將保持觀望。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed won't hike because oil prices are up, but they will pause in a cut process because oil prices are up,&#34; LeBas said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒巴斯表示：“美聯儲不會因為油價上漲而加息，但他們會因為油價上漲而暫停降息。”</p>
</div><p>The minutes of the Fed's April meeting will be released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲四月份會議的紀要將於週三下午 2 點發布。</p>
</div><p>Historically high levels of disagreement at last month's meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月會議上歷史性高水平的分歧</p>
</div><p>At the Fed's April meeting, policymakers left interest rates unchanged and maintained &#34;easing bias&#34; language, suggesting their next move would be a rate cut. This prompted four dissents, the most since 1992.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲四月份的會議上，政策制定者維持利率不變，並保持 “寬鬆偏向” 的表述，暗示他們的下一步可能是降息。這導致了四個反對意見，這是自 1992 年以來最多的。</p>
</div><p>Three of the dissents came from regional Fed presidents who wanted to remove this easing bias and send a signal that the next move could be a rate hike or a rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中三個反對意見來自希望取消這一寬鬆偏向併發出下一步可能是加息或降息信號的地區美聯儲主席。</p>
</div><p>Fed watchers said they will be reading the minutes closely to see how much support the three dissenters had from other officials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲觀察者表示，他們將密切關注紀要，以瞭解這三位反對者得到了多少其他官員的支持。</p>
</div><p>At their meeting in March, only &#34;some&#34; policymakers said there was a &#34;strong case&#34; for removing the easing bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三月份的會議上，只有 “一些” 政策制定者表示，取消寬鬆偏向有 “強烈理由”。</p>
</div><p>Jeremy Schwartz, senior U.S. economist at Nomura, said the April minutes will show &#34;many&#34; participants either directly advocating a shift to the neutral guidance or at least indicating they could have supported an adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村的高級美國經濟學家傑里米·施瓦茨表示，四月份的紀要將顯示 “許多” 參與者直接主張轉向中性指導，或者至少表示他們可能支持調整。</p>
</div><p>Powell told reporters that this minority view on the easing bias could become a majority view as early as the next Fed meeting on June 16-17.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾告訴記者，這種對寬鬆偏向的少數意見可能在下次美聯儲會議（6 月 16-17 日）上成為多數意見。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Whatever silent support the dissenters may have had last month, there might be more of it in June,&#34; said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高頻經濟學的首席經濟學家卡爾·温伯格表示：“無論上個月反對者可能獲得的沉默支持有多少，6 月份可能會有更多。”</p>
</div><p>Bond yields have been moving sharply higher, indicating the market is concerned about the Fed's readiness to react to high inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>債券收益率急劇上升，表明市場對美聯儲應對高通脹的準備感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>LeBas said the market is well aware of this &#34;directional shift.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒巴斯表示，市場對此 “方向性轉變” 非常清楚。</p>
</div><p>&#34;What we don't know is how much of this preference is meant as a counterweight to incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's presumed dovish bias,&#34; LeBas said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們不知道的是，這種偏好在多大程度上是為了抵消即將上任的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什被認為的鴿派傾向，” 勒巴斯説。</p>
</div><p>Fed minutes will do nothing to impede the march higher in yields, said Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. chief economist at Citi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的紀要不會阻礙收益率的上升，花旗集團的美國首席經濟學家安德魯·霍倫霍斯特表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Fed officials were less concerned with the labor market and more concerned with inflation,&#34; he said in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在給客户的報告中表示：“美聯儲官員對勞動力市場的關注減少，而對通脹的關注增加。”</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 1502ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 1502ET</p>
</div>

Are businesses passing on higher energy costs to their customers? These Fed minutes have the answer.

Dow Jones

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

全球黃金礦業股 MSCI ETF - iShares

黃金 ETF - iShares

金礦股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黃金 MiniShares 信託 - SPDR

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

初級黃金礦股 ETF

2 倍做多金礦指數 ETF - Direxion

黃金和貴金屬礦商 ETF - U.S. Global

黃金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

黃金礦 ETF - Sprott

野村控股

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

花旗

CITIGROUP INC 6.250 NON CUM SER II PFD WI

企業是否在將更高的能源成本轉嫁給客户？這些美聯儲紀要提供了答案