<p>分析師表示，日本央行可能在 6 月的政策會議上放慢或暫停其債券購買縮減，因為收益率上升和市場波動使其資產負債表正常化計劃變得複雜。</p>
<p>相關：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本財政大臣片山：準備在外匯方面採取果斷行動</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong> 據路透社報道，引用分析師和熟悉日本央行思維的消息來源：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本央行正在考慮是否在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的政策會議上放慢或暫停其量化緊縮計劃，目前尚未就 2027 財年的縮減速度做出具體決定</li>
<li>目前有三種選擇：完全暫停，保持每月約 2 萬億日元的購買速度，維持每季度減少 2000 億日元，或將減速調整為每季度 1000 億日元</li>
<li>外界普遍預計日本央行將在 6 月會議上提高短期利率，並可能選擇同時軟化其縮減立場，以避免在兩個方面同時收緊的印象</li>
<li>日本央行持有約 49% 的所有未償日本國債，本週與債券投資者的會議被視為最終縮減決策的關鍵輸入</li>
<li>三菱 UFJ 摩根士丹利證券的分析師傾向於在當前債券市場不穩定的情況下完全暫停縮減，而住友三井信託資產管理的分析師則認為每季度減速至 1000 億日元的可能性更大</li>
<li>日本央行認為沒有立即進行緊急債券購買操作的必要，消息來源指出，反映財政和貨幣基本面的收益率波動是市場正常運作的標誌，而非功能失調。</li>
</ul>
<p>分析師表示，日本央行正在權衡是否在下個月的政策會議上放慢或暫停其債券購買縮減計劃，因為日本國債收益率上升和更廣泛的市場波動對其正常化數十年來超寬鬆貨幣政策所形成的資產負債表的計劃施加了壓力。</p>
<p>在行長上田和夫的領導下，日本央行自 2024 年以來逐步減少每月的債券購買，每季度減少約 2000 億日元，作為解除非常規刺激措施的更廣泛努力的一部分。該央行目前持有約 500 萬億日元的債券，相當於所有未償日本國債的約 49%，這使得其在減速速度上的決策對收益率和日本龐大國債的服務成本產生了重大影響。</p>
<p>分析師指出，日本央行在 6 月 15 日至 16 日會議上有三條可行路徑。它可以完全暫停縮減，將每月購買保持在約 2 萬億日元，這一舉措將表明其優先考慮市場穩定。它可以維持每季度減少 2000 億日元的現有速度，強化其對穩定正常化的承諾。或者它可以尋求中間道路，將減速調整為每季度 1000 億日元。分析師對日本央行將選擇哪個選項存在分歧，有些人傾向於在當前市場條件下完全暫停，而另一些人則預計會進行更温和的調整。</p>
<p>這一決策因日本央行在同一會議上也可能提高短期利率而變得複雜。同步加息和持續激進的縮減將冒着發出雙重收緊信號的風險，而政策制定者似乎希望避免這種情況。在加息的同時放慢縮減將允許日本央行收緊其主要貨幣槓桿，同時向債券市場提供一些流動性條件的保證。</p>
<p>本週與債券市場投資者的會議被視為最終決策的關鍵輸入，日本央行利用這些會議來評估市場對調整速度的偏好，然後再決定行動方案。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>日本央行任何準備放慢或暫停其量化緊縮計劃的信號，將為日本國債市場提供短期緩解，因為該市場在收益率上升和財政擔憂加深的情況下持續承壓。暫停縮減將有效減少每月進入市場的日本國債供應，支持價格並限制收益率上升，這對全球固定收益市場產生連鎖影響，因為日本是外國債券的主要持有者。加息與縮減放緩的結合將發出混合信號：短期利率收緊，資產負債表放鬆，這一組合可能是日本央行故意使用的，以避免在兩個方面同時收緊的印象。由於日本央行仍持有 49% 的所有未償日本國債，其每一步行動都對市場產生重大影響。</p>

日本指數 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>分析師建議，由於收益率上升和市場波動，日本銀行（BOJ）可能在 6 月會議上放慢或暫停其債券購買縮減。考慮了三種選擇：完全暫停、維持當前的減持速度或適度放緩。BOJ 還預計將提高短期利率，這使其決策更加複雜。本週與債券投資者的會議將為最終的縮減決策提供信息，這可能對日本政府債券市場和全球固定收益產生影響</p>

<p>The Bank of Japan may slow or pause its bond purchase tapering at the June policy meeting, analysts say, as rising yields and market volatility complicate its balance sheet normalisation plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，日本央行可能在 6 月的政策會議上放慢或暫停其債券購買縮減，因為收益率上升和市場波動使其資產負債表正常化計劃變得複雜。</p>
</div><p>Related:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相關：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan's Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forex</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本財政大臣片山：準備在外匯方面採取果斷行動</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong> According to Reuters, citing analysts and sources familiar with BOJ thinking:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong> 據路透社報道，引用分析師和熟悉日本央行思維的消息來源：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The BOJ is considering whether to slow or pause its quantitative tightening programme at the June 15-16 policy meeting, with no decision yet made on the exact pace of tapering for fiscal 2027</li>
<li>Three options are seen on the table: a full pause at the current buying pace of around 2 trillion yen per month, maintaining the existing reduction of 200 billion yen per quarter, or a more modest slowdown to 100 billion yen per quarter</li>
<li>The BOJ is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates at the June meeting and may opt to soften its taper stance simultaneously to avoid the appearance of tightening on two fronts at once</li>
<li>The BOJ holds around 49% of all outstanding Japanese government bonds, and meetings with bond investors this week are seen as a key input into the final taper decision</li>
<li>Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities favour a full taper pause given current bond market instability, while analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management see a slowdown to 100 billion yen per quarter as more likely</li>
<li>The BOJ sees no immediate need for emergency bond-buying operations, with sources noting that yield moves reflecting fiscal and monetary fundamentals are a sign of proper market functioning rather than dysfunction</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本央行正在考慮是否在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的政策會議上放慢或暫停其量化緊縮計劃，目前尚未就 2027 財年的縮減速度做出具體決定</li>
<li>目前有三種選擇：完全暫停，保持每月約 2 萬億日元的購買速度，維持每季度減少 2000 億日元，或將減速調整為每季度 1000 億日元</li>
<li>外界普遍預計日本央行將在 6 月會議上提高短期利率，並可能選擇同時軟化其縮減立場，以避免在兩個方面同時收緊的印象</li>
<li>日本央行持有約 49% 的所有未償日本國債，本週與債券投資者的會議被視為最終縮減決策的關鍵輸入</li>
<li>三菱 UFJ 摩根士丹利證券的分析師傾向於在當前債券市場不穩定的情況下完全暫停縮減，而住友三井信託資產管理的分析師則認為每季度減速至 1000 億日元的可能性更大</li>
<li>日本央行認為沒有立即進行緊急債券購買操作的必要，消息來源指出，反映財政和貨幣基本面的收益率波動是市場正常運作的標誌，而非功能失調。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is weighing whether to slow or suspend its bond purchase tapering programme at next month's policy meeting, analysts say, as rising Japanese government bond yields and broader market volatility put pressure on its plans to normalise a balance sheet built up over decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，日本央行正在權衡是否在下個月的政策會議上放慢或暫停其債券購買縮減計劃，因為日本國債收益率上升和更廣泛的市場波動對其正常化數十年來超寬鬆貨幣政策所形成的資產負債表的計劃施加了壓力。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ has been gradually reducing its monthly bond purchases since 2024 under Governor Kazuo Ueda, trimming buying by around 200 billion yen each quarter as part of a broader push to unwind extraordinary stimulus. The central bank currently holds around 500 trillion yen in bonds, equivalent to roughly 49% of all Japanese government bonds outstanding, giving its decisions on the pace of reduction an outsized influence on yields and on the cost of servicing Japan's substantial national debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在行長上田和夫的領導下，日本央行自 2024 年以來逐步減少每月的債券購買，每季度減少約 2000 億日元，作為解除非常規刺激措施的更廣泛努力的一部分。該央行目前持有約 500 萬億日元的債券，相當於所有未償日本國債的約 49%，這使得其在減速速度上的決策對收益率和日本龐大國債的服務成本產生了重大影響。</p>
</div><p>Analysts identify three paths available to the BOJ at its June 15-16 meeting. It could pause the taper entirely, holding monthly purchases steady at around 2 trillion yen, a move that would signal its priority is market stability. It could maintain the existing reduction pace of 200 billion yen per quarter, reinforcing its commitment to steady normalisation. Or it could seek a middle course, slowing the reduction to 100 billion yen per quarter. Analysts are divided on which option the BOJ will choose, with some favouring a full pause given current market conditions and others expecting a more modest adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師指出，日本央行在 6 月 15 日至 16 日會議上有三條可行路徑。它可以完全暫停縮減，將每月購買保持在約 2 萬億日元，這一舉措將表明其優先考慮市場穩定。它可以維持每季度減少 2000 億日元的現有速度，強化其對穩定正常化的承諾。或者它可以尋求中間道路，將減速調整為每季度 1000 億日元。分析師對日本央行將選擇哪個選項存在分歧，有些人傾向於在當前市場條件下完全暫停，而另一些人則預計會進行更温和的調整。</p>
</div><p>The decision is complicated by the likelihood that the BOJ will also raise short-term interest rates at the same meeting. A simultaneous rate hike and continued aggressive taper would risk sending a double-tightening signal that policymakers appear keen to avoid. Slowing the taper while raising rates would allow the BOJ to tighten its primary monetary lever while offering bond markets some reassurance on liquidity conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一決策因日本央行在同一會議上也可能提高短期利率而變得複雜。同步加息和持續激進的縮減將冒着發出雙重收緊信號的風險，而政策制定者似乎希望避免這種情況。在加息的同時放慢縮減將允許日本央行收緊其主要貨幣槓桿，同時向債券市場提供一些流動性條件的保證。</p>
</div><p>Meetings with bond market investors scheduled for this week are seen as a critical input into the final decision, with the BOJ using the sessions to gauge the market's preferred pace of adjustment before committing to a course of action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週與債券市場投資者的會議被視為最終決策的關鍵輸入，日本央行利用這些會議來評估市場對調整速度的偏好，然後再決定行動方案。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Any signal from the BOJ that it is prepared to slow or pause its quantitative tightening programme would provide near-term relief to Japanese government bond markets, which have been under sustained pressure as yields rise and fiscal concerns deepen. A pause in taper would effectively reduce the supply of JGBs hitting the market each month, supporting prices and capping yield rises, with knock-on implications for global fixed income given Japan's role as a major holder of foreign bonds. A rate hike combined with a taper slowdown would present a mixed signal: tighter on short rates, looser on the balance sheet, a combination the BOJ may use deliberately to avoid the impression of an aggressive simultaneous tightening on two fronts. With the BOJ still holding 49% of all outstanding JGBs, its every move carries outsized market consequences.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行任何準備放慢或暫停其量化緊縮計劃的信號，將為日本國債市場提供短期緩解，因為該市場在收益率上升和財政擔憂加深的情況下持續承壓。暫停縮減將有效減少每月進入市場的日本國債供應，支持價格並限制收益率上升，這對全球固定收益市場產生連鎖影響，因為日本是外國債券的主要持有者。加息與縮減放緩的結合將發出混合信號：短期利率收緊，資產負債表放鬆，這一組合可能是日本央行故意使用的，以避免在兩個方面同時收緊的印象。由於日本央行仍持有 49% 的所有未償日本國債，其每一步行動都對市場產生重大影響。</p>
</div>

BOJ may slow or pause bond taper at June meeting, analysts say

Investinglive

湯森路透

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

三菱日聯金融集團

摩根士丹利

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

分析師表示，日本央行可能會在六月的會議上放緩或暫停債券縮減計劃