<p>從當前大量的研討會、會議、論文、文章和社交媒體炒作來看，人們可以理解地得出結論，電子支付的未來將集中在穩定幣上，這一如今被商業界認可的加密貨幣面貌。</p>
<p>不再需要在笨重、昂貴且限制重重的傳統金融與多種潛在的虛幻之物——或加密貨幣之間進行選擇。</p>
<p>穩定幣是與法定資產掛鈎的私營發行數字代幣，基於分佈式賬本技術基礎設施。</p>
<p>因此，它將提供數字領域所提供的速度、低成本和對國界的無差別，同時具備傳統法定支付工具所驗證的安全價值存儲和可靠性。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特建議，到 2030 年，穩定幣所佔支付的價值可能達到 3 萬億美元。</p>
<p>然而，國際清算銀行表示，目前發行的穩定幣的價值僅接近 3150 億美元，而例如美國銀行存款的總額約為 8 萬億美元。</p>
<p>麥肯錫和阿爾忒彌斯分析的研究發現，實際的穩定幣支付量僅為 3900 億美元，約佔全球支付總量的 0.02%。</p>
<p>這與內部區塊鏈賬本平衡等操作不同。</p>
<p>因此，目前存在很多熱議，但實際應用卻寥寥無幾。</p>
<p>許多中央銀行正在對穩定幣的各個方面進行研究。</p>
<p>他們表示願意考慮在量身定製和適當的監管監督下處理這一問題。但熱切的主流發行者的隊伍尚未形成。</p>
<h2>缺乏熱情</h2>
<p>潛在的大規模私營部門用户的猶豫並不難理解。</p>
<p>首先，穩定幣的確切法律地位尚未在國際上得到明確規定。</p>
<p>它在案例法中仍然缺乏驗證。它是數字資產、持票債券、欠條還是賭場籌碼？</p>
<p>不同穩定幣之間、承載它們的平台或其所處的監管轄區之間的互操作性非常低且不標準化。</p>
<p>這種情況可能會持續下去。</p>
<p>其次，許多為穩定幣提出的商業應用案例並不獨特。大多數可以通過現有的基礎設施和程序實現，風險相似或更低。</p>
<p>這裏的複雜因素是不存在單一貨幣。</p>
<p>儘管穩定幣聲稱相反，但它們並不是由明確的法定貨幣支持的完全可替代工具——結算絕對由中央銀行及其背後的國家即時保證。</p>
<p>因此，毫不奇怪的是——除了少數幾個顯著例外——官方貨幣和金融機構論壇（OMFIF）聽到主要中央銀行和金融監管機構對批發穩定幣的熱情明顯不足。</p>
<p>最近的聚會顯示，這些機構對穩定幣及其在金融系統中的運作方式仍然存在嚴重保留。</p>
<h2>三大挑戰</h2>
<p>三大主要擔憂反覆浮現。</p>
<p>首先，最顯著且可以説是最哲學的問題是，穩定幣被認為對貨幣的單一性構成威脅——或者説，對法定貨幣本身的整個宇宙和精神構成威脅。</p>
<p>只有國家才能發行、流通和保證交換手段的概念，最終由武力支持，這是古老的、神聖的、普遍的且成功的。</p>
<p>穩定幣威脅到這種平衡。</p>
<p>其次，被認為對商業監管銀行系統的穩定性構成威脅，特別是有償非銀行穩定幣可能會從商業銀行吸引大量存款，從而提高對實體經濟的貸款成本。</p>
<p>第三個問題是關於在無託管區塊鏈加密錢包中缺乏客户透明度的擔憂，以及因此而導致的穩定幣在洗錢、恐怖融資或其他犯罪活動中的風險。</p>
<p>就大規模、普遍的部署而言，私營部門的冷漠與公共部門的謹慎結合，可能會阻止批發穩定幣的狂潮。</p>
<p>一些成功的細分應用可能會被實施，但它們將相對較小。</p>
<p>它們還將在明確界定和嚴格監管的應用中運作，系統性傳染的可能性較低。</p>
<p>在更廣泛的領域，批發穩定幣將是一個尋找問題的解決方案。</p>
<p>對於許多聲稱穩定幣是答案的領域，未來可能屬於用於交易的代幣化存款，由批發數字中央銀行貨幣結算。但那是另一個故事。OMFIF</p>
<p><strong>作者是 OMFIF 的副主席</strong></p>

CRCL

COIN

GLXY

區塊鏈 ETF - Amplify

<p>電子支付的未來可能依賴於穩定幣，這是一種與法定資產掛鈎的數字代幣。儘管預測到 2030 年市場規模將達到 3 萬億美元，但目前穩定幣的使用仍然很有限，實際支付僅為 3900 億美元。中央銀行對此表示謹慎，原因在於法律不確定性和對傳統銀行的潛在威脅。人們擔憂的包括對貨幣穩定性的影響、對銀行系統的風險以及透明度問題。儘管可能會出現小眾應用，但廣泛採用面臨重大障礙</p>

<p>JUDGING from the current flood of seminars, conferences, papers, articles and social-media hype, one can be forgiven for concluding that the future of electronic payments is going to be centred on stablecoins, the now commercially respectable face of crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從當前大量的研討會、會議、論文、文章和社交媒體炒作來看，人們可以理解地得出結論，電子支付的未來將集中在穩定幣上，這一如今被商業界認可的加密貨幣面貌。</p>
</div><p>The need to choose between clunky, expensive and restrictive traditional finance on the one hand and multiple varieties of potential fairy dust – or cryptocurrency – on the other is no longer necessary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不再需要在笨重、昂貴且限制重重的傳統金融與多種潛在的虛幻之物——或加密貨幣之間進行選擇。</p>
</div><p>Stablecoins are privately issued digital tokens with value tied to fiat assets carried on distributed ledger technology infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穩定幣是與法定資產掛鈎的私營發行數字代幣，基於分佈式賬本技術基礎設施。</p>
</div><p>It will henceforth offer the speed, low cost and indifference to national frontiers offered by the digital realm, with the safe store of value and fidelity validated by traditional fiat payment instruments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，它將提供數字領域所提供的速度、低成本和對國界的無差別，同時具備傳統法定支付工具所驗證的安全價值存儲和可靠性。</p>
</div><p>Against this background, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that the value of payments accounted for by stablecoins can reach US$3 trillion by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特建議，到 2030 年，穩定幣所佔支付的價值可能達到 3 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Yet, the Bank for International Settlements has said that the value of stablecoins currently in issue approaches just US$315 billion compared with, for example, around US$8 trillion held in US bank deposits alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，國際清算銀行表示，目前發行的穩定幣的價值僅接近 3150 億美元，而例如美國銀行存款的總額約為 8 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Research by McKinsey and Artemis Analytics has found that the actual volume of real stablecoin payments amounts to a mere US$390 billion, or around 0.02 per cent of global payments volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麥肯錫和阿爾忒彌斯分析的研究發現，實際的穩定幣支付量僅為 3900 億美元，約佔全球支付總量的 0.02%。</p>
</div><p>This is as opposed to internal blockchain book-balancing exercises and the like.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這與內部區塊鏈賬本平衡等操作不同。</p>
</div><p>So, for the moment, lots of sizzling but few sausages exist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，目前存在很多熱議，但實際應用卻寥寥無幾。</p>
</div><p>Numerous central banks have been conducting studies on various aspects of stablecoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多中央銀行正在對穩定幣的各個方面進行研究。</p>
</div><p>They have been expressing their willingness to consider the issue with bespoke and appropriate regulatory supervision. But the queues of eager and mainstream issuers have yet to form.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們表示願意考慮在量身定製和適當的監管監督下處理這一問題。但熱切的主流發行者的隊伍尚未形成。</p>
</div><h2>Lack of enthusiasm</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>缺乏熱情</h2>
</div><p>It is not hard to understand the reticence among potential large-scale private-sector users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>潛在的大規模私營部門用户的猶豫並不難理解。</p>
</div><p>For one thing, the exact legal status of a stablecoin has yet to be internationally codified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，穩定幣的確切法律地位尚未在國際上得到明確規定。</p>
</div><p>It is still less validated by case law. Is it a digital asset, bearer bond, IOU or casino chip?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在案例法中仍然缺乏驗證。它是數字資產、持票債券、欠條還是賭場籌碼？</p>
</div><p>Interoperability, be that between various stablecoins, the platforms on which they are carried or the regulatory jurisdictions in which they are based, is very low and unstandardised.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不同穩定幣之間、承載它們的平台或其所處的監管轄區之間的互操作性非常低且不標準化。</p>
</div><p>It is likely to remain so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況可能會持續下去。</p>
</div><p>For another, many of the business-use cases advanced for stablecoins are hardly unique. Most are achievable using existing rails and procedures, with similar or less risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，許多為穩定幣提出的商業應用案例並不獨特。大多數可以通過現有的基礎設施和程序實現，風險相似或更低。</p>
</div><p>The complicating factor here is that no singleness of money exists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏的複雜因素是不存在單一貨幣。</p>
</div><p>Despite their pretensions to the contrary, stablecoins are not perfectly fungible instruments backed by unequivocal fiat money – with settlement instantly and at par absolutely guaranteed by a central bank and the nation that stands behind it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管穩定幣聲稱相反，但它們並不是由明確的法定貨幣支持的完全可替代工具——結算絕對由中央銀行及其背後的國家即時保證。</p>
</div><p>It is therefore not surprising that – with one or two notable exceptions – the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) has heard a distinct lack of enthusiasm from major central banks and financial supervisors on wholesale stablecoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，毫不奇怪的是——除了少數幾個顯著例外——官方貨幣和金融機構論壇（OMFIF）聽到主要中央銀行和金融監管機構對批發穩定幣的熱情明顯不足。</p>
</div><p>Recent gatherings have shown that these institutions still have severe reservations about stablecoins – and the way they might operate within the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的聚會顯示，這些機構對穩定幣及其在金融系統中的運作方式仍然存在嚴重保留。</p>
</div><h2>Three major challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三大挑戰</h2>
</div><p>Three major concerns repeatedly surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三大主要擔憂反覆浮現。</p>
</div><p>The first, most salient and arguably the most philosophical, is the threat that stablecoins are perceived to present to the singleness of money – or indeed, to the whole universe and ethos of fiat currency itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，最顯著且可以説是最哲學的問題是，穩定幣被認為對貨幣的單一性構成威脅——或者説，對法定貨幣本身的整個宇宙和精神構成威脅。</p>
</div><p>The concept that only the state can issue, circulate and guarantee the means of exchange, ultimately backed by force of arms, is ancient, sanctified, pervasive and successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有國家才能發行、流通和保證交換手段的概念，最終由武力支持，這是古老的、神聖的、普遍的且成功的。</p>
</div><p>Stablecoins threaten to upset this equilibrium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穩定幣威脅到這種平衡。</p>
</div><p>Second is the perceived threat to the stability of the commercially regulated banking system, in particular the potential for remunerated non-bank stablecoins to draw significant deposits away from commercial banks, thereby raising the costs of lending to the real economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，被認為對商業監管銀行系統的穩定性構成威脅，特別是有償非銀行穩定幣可能會從商業銀行吸引大量存款，從而提高對實體經濟的貸款成本。</p>
</div><p>The third issue is about concerns regarding the lack of customer transparency in unhosted blockchain-crypto wallets, and the risks thereby of the deployment of stablecoins in money laundering, terrorist financing or other criminal enterprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三個問題是關於在無託管區塊鏈加密錢包中缺乏客户透明度的擔憂，以及因此而導致的穩定幣在洗錢、恐怖融資或其他犯罪活動中的風險。</p>
</div><p>As far as mass, universal deployment is concerned, this combination of private-sector indifference coupled with public-sector caution is likely to head off the wholesale stablecoin stampede at the pass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就大規模、普遍的部署而言，私營部門的冷漠與公共部門的謹慎結合，可能會阻止批發穩定幣的狂潮。</p>
</div><p>Some successful niche applications will probably be put into place, but they will be relatively small.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些成功的細分應用可能會被實施，但它們將相對較小。</p>
</div><p>They will also operate in clearly defined and tightly regulated applications, with a low possibility of systemic contagion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們還將在明確界定和嚴格監管的應用中運作，系統性傳染的可能性較低。</p>
</div><p>In the wider sphere, wholesale stablecoins will be a solution looking for a problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更廣泛的領域，批發穩定幣將是一個尋找問題的解決方案。</p>
</div><p>For many of the fields in which stablecoins claim to be the answer, the future probably belongs to tokenised deposits used for trading, to be settled by wholesale digital central-bank money. But that is another story. OMFIF</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於許多聲稱穩定幣是答案的領域，未來可能屬於用於交易的代幣化存款，由批發數字中央銀行貨幣結算。但那是另一個故事。OMFIF</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is deputy chairman of OMFIF</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是 OMFIF 的副主席</strong></p>
</div>

Wholesale stablecoins: fad or future?

- 預計穩定幣在 2030 年前支付價值可達 3 萬億美元。  
- 目前穩定幣市場僅約 3150 億美元，實際支付量為 3900 億美元。  
- 中央銀行對穩定幣存在顧慮，主要涉及貨幣單一性和銀行穩定性等問題。

批發穩定幣是曇花一現還是未來趨勢？