<ul>
<li>加拿大通脹低於預期，儘管伊朗戰爭導致油價震盪</li>
<li>加拿大央行核心通脹指標已低於第二季度預測</li>
<li>加拿大經濟意外數據自 2022 年 10 月以來最弱</li>
<li>儘管美元強勁，美元/加元卻出現頂部信號</li>
<li>重複在 1.3750 上方被拒絕，警示上漲動能可能正在減弱</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元/加元拒絕遵循預期</h2>
<p>加拿大剛剛發佈的通脹數據低於預期，本應使美元/加元像火箭一樣上漲，尤其是在週二美元對其他主要貨幣大幅上漲的情況下。然而，該貨幣對卻出現了看似頂部信號的走勢。再加上加拿大和美國之間經濟動能的日益分化，從基本面來看，美元/加元本應在低谷中被打得粉碎。但事實並非如此。</p>
<h2>温和通脹雲霧籠罩鷹派的加拿大央行前景</h2>
<p>通脹的細節進一步加深了這一難題。4 月份，消費者物價指數（CPI）同比上漲 2.8%，低於預期的 3.1%，儘管由於伊朗戰爭導致汽油價格飆升。按月計算，CPI 上漲 0.4%，低於預期的 0.7%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>更重要的是，對於加拿大央行而言，潛在的通脹脈動進一步減弱。CPI 中位數的年增長率從 2.3% 放緩至 2.1%，而 CPI 修剪的年增長率從 2.2% 降至 2.0%。兩者的平均值，加拿大央行偏好的核心通脹指標現在為 2.05%，已經低於該行自己對第二季度 2.1% 的預測，僅在季度開始一個月後。</p>
<p>這很重要，因為這質疑市場是否對加拿大央行在今年晚些時候加息的預期過於激進。加拿大央行一再警告，第二輪通脹效應可能會嵌入更廣泛的定價行為中，但到目前為止，數據中幾乎沒有出現這種情況的證據。</p>
<h2>經濟動能有利於美元</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：LSEG</p>
<p>更廣泛的宏觀背景進一步加深了矛盾。加拿大的 Citi 經濟意外指數（紅色）已降至自 2022 年 10 月以來的最低水平，而美國的同類指數（藍色）則穩固在正值區域，繼續保持近一年的趨勢。簡單來説，加拿大的數據越來越低於預期，而美國的數據則持續超出預期。</p>
<p>這很重要，因為國內經濟的疲軟應該有助於降低加拿大央行警告的第二輪通脹效應嵌入更廣泛定價行為的風險。然而，儘管有這種背景，市場仍然暗示到 10 月有約 80% 的可能性加息 25 個基點。這似乎非常激進。</p>
<h2>價格走勢勝過宏觀</h2>
<p>美元/加元的獨特結構可能解釋了宏觀的分歧。與大多數主要外匯對不同的是，幾乎沒有證據表明它受到任何單一宏觀因素的緊密驅動，無論是利率、風險情緒還是油價。</p>
<p>在這種環境下，這一點尤為重要，因為美國和加拿大都是主要的能源出口國。儘管中東的地緣政治緊張局勢在外匯市場上引發了劇烈波動，但由於兩國經濟都受到相同的有利貿易條件衝擊，美元/加元的相對影響似乎遠不如其他貨幣對明顯。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>上面的相關性矩陣進一步強化了這一觀點。在過去一個月中，美元/加元與標準普爾 500 期貨的關係僅為-0.47，且與布倫特原油的正相關關係也僅為 0.12。與美國國債期貨的關係也不一致，在同一時期與美國兩年期國債期貨的關係為-0.34，且在更長的時間範圍內進一步減弱。</p>
<p>換句話説，美元/加元目前缺乏在其他主要貨幣對中常見的明顯宏觀關係。這也是我最近更重視價格走勢而不是試圖將每一次波動強行解釋為基本面的原因。</p>
<h2>空頭再次捍衞 1.3750</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>正如本月早些時候正確指出的，我們在 5 月份看到美元/加元出現了不錯的上漲，回撤了 4 月份下跌的一半。然而，儘管這一趨勢不可否認，但請看看過去三個交易日 1.3750 上方的價格走勢。它在去年底以來的較長時間內既充當支撐又阻力，且在該水平上出現了三次連續的大頂部影線，但沒有成功收盤在該水平上，這讓人感覺市場真的不想看到該貨幣對上漲。</p>
<p>週二的蠟燭圖尤其突出，呈現出類似於流星的形態，這是一種看跌反轉模式，警示潛在的下行風險。國內數據疲軟，美元在其他地方強勁，空頭仍然排隊將其推回 1.3750 以下。這值得關注。</p>
<p>儘管振盪指標目前在方向風險上發出最温和的看漲信號，RSI（14）在 50 以上，而 MACD 在本月早些時候已轉為正值，但這一信息並不明確。如果價格走勢反映了未來的走勢，空頭佈局可能會成為選擇。</p>
<p>如果價格繼續在 1.3750 上方掙扎，或今天無法重新奪回該水平，則可以在下方建立頭寸，止損設置在上方以保護，目標指向更低的水平。早期階段，有幾個關鍵水平可能為空頭提供早期障礙，50 日和 100 日移動平均線，以及 1.3710，形成了該貨幣對當前交易位置下方的潛在支撐區。</p>
<p>有些人可能希望在該區域下方出現反轉信號後再入場，但如果該貨幣對突破該區域，那麼在 1.3600 到 1.3550 之間幾乎沒有明顯的支撐，而該貨幣對在今年早些時候曾多次在此反彈。</p>

德銀美元指數 做空 - PowerShares

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>美元/加元的前景看起來偏向看跌，因為最近的加拿大通脹數據低於預期，令市場對加拿大央行可能加息的前景產生懷疑。儘管美元表現強勁，美元/加元卻顯示出頂部信號，阻力位在 1.3750。經濟動能有利於美元，因為加拿大的數據持續表現不及美國。美元/加元的獨特結構表明，它受到宏觀經濟因素的影響較小，因此更關注近期的價格走勢，而非基本面的解釋</p>

<ul>
<li>Canada inflation undershoots despite oil shock from Iran war</li>
<li>BoC core inflation gauge already running beneath Q2 forecast</li>
<li>Canadian economic surprises weakest since October 2022</li>
<li>USD/CAD prints topping signal despite rampant US dollar strength</li>
<li>Repeated rejection above 1.3750 warns upside momentum may be fading</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>加拿大通脹低於預期，儘管伊朗戰爭導致油價震盪</li>
<li>加拿大央行核心通脹指標已低於第二季度預測</li>
<li>加拿大經濟意外數據自 2022 年 10 月以來最弱</li>
<li>儘管美元強勁，美元/加元卻出現頂部信號</li>
<li>重複在 1.3750 上方被拒絕，警示上漲動能可能正在減弱</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/CAD Refuses to Follow the Script</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/加元拒絕遵循預期</h2>
</div><p>Canada just delivered an inflation undershoot that should have seen USD/CAD launch like a rocket, especially with the big dollar ripping higher against the other major currencies on Tuesday. Instead, the pair printed what looks like a topping signal. Throw in the growing divergence in economic momentum between Canada and the US and, fundamentally, USD/CAD should be out in the woodshed getting smashed to pieces. But it isn’t.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大剛剛發佈的通脹數據低於預期，本應使美元/加元像火箭一樣上漲，尤其是在週二美元對其他主要貨幣大幅上漲的情況下。然而，該貨幣對卻出現了看似頂部信號的走勢。再加上加拿大和美國之間經濟動能的日益分化，從基本面來看，美元/加元本應在低谷中被打得粉碎。但事實並非如此。</p>
</div><h2>Soft Inflation Clouds Hawkish BoC Outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>温和通脹雲霧籠罩鷹派的加拿大央行前景</h2>
</div><p>The inflation details only deepen the puzzle. Headline CPI rose 2.8% from a year earlier in April, undershooting expectations for a 3.1% increase despite the surge in gasoline prices following the Iran war. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, below the 0.7% pace expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹的細節進一步加深了這一難題。4 月份，消費者物價指數（CPI）同比上漲 2.8%，低於預期的 3.1%，儘管由於伊朗戰爭導致汽油價格飆升。按月計算，CPI 上漲 0.4%，低於預期的 0.7%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>More importantly for the Bank of Canada, the underlying inflation pulse softened further. The annual rate of CPI median slowed to 2.1% from 2.3% while the annual pace of CPI trim eased to 2.0% from 2.2%. Averaging the two, the Bank’s preferred core inflation gauge now sits at 2.05%, already running beneath the Bank’s own Q2 forecast of 2.1% only one month into the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，對於加拿大央行而言，潛在的通脹脈動進一步減弱。CPI 中位數的年增長率從 2.3% 放緩至 2.1%，而 CPI 修剪的年增長率從 2.2% 降至 2.0%。兩者的平均值，加拿大央行偏好的核心通脹指標現在為 2.05%，已經低於該行自己對第二季度 2.1% 的預測，僅在季度開始一個月後。</p>
</div><p>That matters because it calls into question whether markets have become too aggressive pricing Bank of Canada hikes later this year. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned about second-round inflation effects becoming embedded in broader pricing behaviour, but so far there’s little evidence of that emerging in the data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很重要，因為這質疑市場是否對加拿大央行在今年晚些時候加息的預期過於激進。加拿大央行一再警告，第二輪通脹效應可能會嵌入更廣泛的定價行為中，但到目前為止，數據中幾乎沒有出現這種情況的證據。</p>
</div><h2>Economic Momentum Favours USD</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>經濟動能有利於美元</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: LSEG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：LSEG</p>
</div><p>The broader macro backdrop only deepens the contradiction. Canada’s Citi economic surprise index, shown in red above, has fallen to the weakest level since October 2022 while the US equivalent, in blue, remains firmly in positive territory, continuing a trend that has persisted for almost a year. In simple terms, Canadian data has increasingly undershot expectations while US data continues to outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更廣泛的宏觀背景進一步加深了矛盾。加拿大的 Citi 經濟意外指數（紅色）已降至自 2022 年 10 月以來的最低水平，而美國的同類指數（藍色）則穩固在正值區域，繼續保持近一年的趨勢。簡單來説，加拿大的數據越來越低於預期，而美國的數據則持續超出預期。</p>
</div><p>That matters because a weakening domestic economy should help reduce the risk of the second-round inflation effects the Bank of Canada has warned about becoming embedded in broader pricing behaviour. Yet despite that backdrop, markets still imply around an 80% chance of a 25 basis point Bank of Canada hike by October. That seems very aggressive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很重要，因為國內經濟的疲軟應該有助於降低加拿大央行警告的第二輪通脹效應嵌入更廣泛定價行為的風險。然而，儘管有這種背景，市場仍然暗示到 10 月有約 80% 的可能性加息 25 個基點。這似乎非常激進。</p>
</div><h2>Price Action Over Macro</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>價格走勢勝過宏觀</h2>
</div><p>The unique structure of USD/CAD may explain the macro divergence. Unlike most major FX pairs, there’s little evidence that it’s tightly driven by any one macro force, whether that be rates, risk sentiment or even oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/加元的獨特結構可能解釋了宏觀的分歧。與大多數主要外匯對不同的是，幾乎沒有證據表明它受到任何單一宏觀因素的緊密驅動，無論是利率、風險情緒還是油價。</p>
</div><p>That’s important in this environment given both the United States and Canada are major energy exporters. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have generated violent swings elsewhere across FX markets, the relative impact on USD/CAD appears far less pronounced given both economies are exposed to the same positive terms of trade shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種環境下，這一點尤為重要，因為美國和加拿大都是主要的能源出口國。儘管中東的地緣政治緊張局勢在外匯市場上引發了劇烈波動，但由於兩國經濟都受到相同的有利貿易條件衝擊，美元/加元的相對影響似乎遠不如其他貨幣對明顯。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The correlation matrix above reinforces the point. Over the past month, USD/CAD has shown only a modest inverse relationship with S&amp;P 500 futures at -0.47 and an even weaker positive relationship with Brent crude at just 0.12. The relationship with US Treasury futures has also been inconsistent, sitting at -0.34 against US two-year note futures over the same period before weakening further over longer horizons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上面的相關性矩陣進一步強化了這一觀點。在過去一個月中，美元/加元與標準普爾 500 期貨的關係僅為-0.47，且與布倫特原油的正相關關係也僅為 0.12。與美國國債期貨的關係也不一致，在同一時期與美國兩年期國債期貨的關係為-0.34，且在更長的時間範圍內進一步減弱。</p>
</div><p>In other words, USD/CAD currently lacks the kind of obvious macro relationship seen regularly in other major pairs. That’s one reason why I place greater weight on the price action recently rather than trying to force a fundamental explanation onto every move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，美元/加元目前缺乏在其他主要貨幣對中常見的明顯宏觀關係。這也是我最近更重視價格走勢而不是試圖將每一次波動強行解釋為基本面的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Bears Defend 1.3750 Again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>空頭再次捍衞 1.3750</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>As correctly flagged earlier in the month, we've seen a nice bullish move in USD/CAD in May, seeing it retrace around half the bearish unwind of April. However, while the trend is undeniable, just look at the price action seen above 1.3750 over the past three sessions. It has acted as both support and resistance for lengthy periods dating back to late last year, and with three consecutive large topside wicks but no successful close above the level, it gives you the sense the market really doesn't want to see the pair higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如本月早些時候正確指出的，我們在 5 月份看到美元/加元出現了不錯的上漲，回撤了 4 月份下跌的一半。然而，儘管這一趨勢不可否認，但請看看過去三個交易日 1.3750 上方的價格走勢。它在去年底以來的較長時間內既充當支撐又阻力，且在該水平上出現了三次連續的大頂部影線，但沒有成功收盤在該水平上，這讓人感覺市場真的不想看到該貨幣對上漲。</p>
</div><p>Tuesday's candle stands out in particular, delivering something akin to a shooting star, a bearish reversal pattern that warns of potential downside. The domestic data was weak, the USD was rampant elsewhere, and the bears still lined up to push it back below 1.3750. That's something to sit up and take notice of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二的蠟燭圖尤其突出，呈現出類似於流星的形態，這是一種看跌反轉模式，警示潛在的下行風險。國內數據疲軟，美元在其他地方強勁，空頭仍然排隊將其推回 1.3750 以下。這值得關注。</p>
</div><p>While the oscillators are generating the mildest of mild bullish signals on directional risks right now, with RSI (14) above 50 while MACD has flipped positive having already crossed over earlier this month, the message is hardly definitive. If the price action is reflective of what's to come, short setups may be on the menu.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管振盪指標目前在方向風險上發出最温和的看漲信號，RSI（14）在 50 以上，而 MACD 在本月早些時候已轉為正值，但這一信息並不明確。如果價格走勢反映了未來的走勢，空頭佈局可能會成為選擇。</p>
</div><p>If the price continues to falter above 1.3750 or cannot reclaim the level today, positions could be set below with a tight stop above for protection, targeting lower levels. Early doors, there are several key levels nearby that may provide early hurdles for bears, with the 50 and 100-day moving averages, along with 1.3710, creating something of a potential support zone immediately under where the pair now trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果價格繼續在 1.3750 上方掙扎，或今天無法重新奪回該水平，則可以在下方建立頭寸，止損設置在上方以保護，目標指向更低的水平。早期階段，有幾個關鍵水平可能為空頭提供早期障礙，50 日和 100 日移動平均線，以及 1.3710，形成了該貨幣對當前交易位置下方的潛在支撐區。</p>
</div><p>Some may want to wait for a reversal beneath the zone before entry, but if the pair were to break through it, there's little in the way of visible support until 1.3600 down to 1.3550 where the pair bounced on several occasions earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有些人可能希望在該區域下方出現反轉信號後再入場，但如果該貨幣對突破該區域，那麼在 1.3600 到 1.3550 之間幾乎沒有明顯的支撐，而該貨幣對在今年早些時候曾多次在此反彈。</p>
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美元/加元的展望：看跌的價格走勢使看漲的宏觀情況受到質疑