<p>布倫特原油下跌 0.4%，WTI 原油下滑 0.3%，因特朗普聲稱與伊朗的戰爭將很快結束，但投資者仍然保持謹慎，因為美國原油庫存連續第五週下降。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>布倫特原油在早盤交易中下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而 WTI 原油下跌 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元，此前特朗普告訴美國立法者與伊朗的戰爭將很快結束</li>
<li>在副總統範斯表示美國與伊朗在談判中取得了實質性進展後，雙方都不希望看到軍事行動的迴歸，週二這兩個基準油價已經下跌近 1 美元</li>
<li>特朗普的和平談判樂觀情緒受到他早前評論的削弱，他表示美國可能需要再次打擊伊朗，並透露他在推遲之前曾距離下令攻擊僅有一個小時</li>
<li>霍爾木茲海峽，全球約五分之一的石油供應通過此處運輸，因美以與伊朗的衝突而實際上處於關閉狀態，根據國際能源署的説法，這代表了全球最大的石油供應中斷</li>
<li>根據市場消息引用的 API 數據，美國原油庫存連續第五週下降，預計週三發佈的 EIA 數據將顯示截至 5 月 15 日的一週再減少約 340 萬桶</li>
<li>分析師指出，即使確認達成和平協議，原油供應也不會迅速恢復到戰爭前的水平，價格在任何短期外交解決方案之外仍將保持結構性高位。</li>
</ul>
<p>週三早盤，油價在特朗普告訴美國立法者與伊朗的戰爭將很快結束後有所回落，但下跌幅度温和且猶豫，反映出市場已經學會對政府每日語調的變化保持相當謹慎。</p>
<p>布倫特原油下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而西德克薩斯中質原油下滑 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元。在副總統範斯表示華盛頓與德黑蘭之間的談判取得了實質性進展後，雙方都不希望恢復敵對行動，週二這兩個基準油價已經回落近 1 美元。</p>
<p>然而，外交樂觀情緒與特朗普本人所説的相反。就在他向立法者聲稱迅速解決的同一天，他表示美國可能需要再次打擊伊朗，並透露他在選擇推遲之前曾距離下令攻擊僅有一個小時。這種矛盾已成為市場運作環境的特徵，分析師指出美國的立場每天都在變化，投資者難以判斷華盛頓與德黑蘭是否能夠找到真正的共同點。</p>
<p>結構性供應形勢為價格提供了持續的支撐，無論外交噪音如何。霍爾木茲海峽，通常約五分之一的全球石油供應通過此處運輸，因美以與伊朗的衝突而實際上處於關閉狀態，國際能源署將這一中斷描述為全球石油供應有記錄以來最大的中斷。各國正在動用商業和戰略庫存來填補這一缺口，市場消息引用的美國石油庫存數據顯示，原油庫存連續第五週下降，週三晚些時候發佈的 EIA 數據預計將確認截至 5 月 15 日的一週再減少約 340 萬桶。</p>
<p>分析師警告稱，即使確認達成和平協議，供應中斷也不會迅速解除，原油流動在敵對行動正式停止後也不太可能迅速恢復到戰爭前的水平。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>價格走勢反映出市場已經聽過特朗普的樂觀表述，並據此進行折扣。他關於戰爭將迅速結束的説法與他早前提到的可能需要在幾天內再次打擊伊朗的評論之間的差距，概括了自衝突開始以來油價交易的劇烈波動。更持久的看跌信號將是霍爾木茲海峽的確認和持久重開，分析師指出，即使達成和平協議，供應也不會立即恢復到戰爭前的水平。在看漲方面，美國原油庫存連續第五週下降，突顯出各國依賴儲備來填補霍爾木茲海峽中斷所留下的供應缺口，儘管地緣政治頭條不斷變化，但仍為價格提供了結構性支撐。</p>

西方石油

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

<p>油價略微回落，布倫特原油下跌 0.4%，至 110.83 美元，WTI 下跌 0.3%，至 103.88 美元，此前特朗普建議迅速結束與伊朗的戰爭。然而，由於美國與以色列與伊朗之間的衝突以及美國原油庫存連續第五週下降，市場對供應中斷的擔憂使得油價保持在高位。分析師警告，即使達成和平協議，原油供應也可能不會迅速恢復到戰爭前的水平，從而維持結構性價格底線</p>

<p>Brent fell 0.4% and WTI slipped 0.3% after Trump claimed the Iran war will end very quickly, though investors remain cautious as US crude stocks fell for a fifth straight week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油下跌 0.4%，WTI 原油下滑 0.3%，因特朗普聲稱與伊朗的戰爭將很快結束，但投資者仍然保持謹慎，因為美國原油庫存連續第五週下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Brent crude fell 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $110.83 a barrel in early trade, while WTI dropped 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $103.88, after Trump told US lawmakers the war with Iran will end very quickly</li>
<li>Both benchmarks had already fallen nearly $1 on Tuesday after Vice President Vance said the US and Iran had made meaningful progress in talks, with neither side wanting to see a return to military action</li>
<li>Trump's peace talk optimism was undercut by his earlier comments that the US may need to strike Iran again, and that he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before postponing it</li>
<li>The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around a fifth of global oil supplies, remains effectively closed as a result of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, representing the largest oil supply disruption in the world according to the IEA</li>
<li>US crude inventories fell for a fifth consecutive week according to API data cited by market sources, with EIA data due Wednesday expected to show a further draw of around 3.4 million barrels for the week to May 15</li>
<li>Analysts noted that even a confirmed peace deal would not quickly restore crude supply to pre-war levels, keeping prices structurally elevated beyond any near-term diplomatic resolution</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>布倫特原油在早盤交易中下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而 WTI 原油下跌 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元，此前特朗普告訴美國立法者與伊朗的戰爭將很快結束</li>
<li>在副總統範斯表示美國與伊朗在談判中取得了實質性進展後，雙方都不希望看到軍事行動的迴歸，週二這兩個基準油價已經下跌近 1 美元</li>
<li>特朗普的和平談判樂觀情緒受到他早前評論的削弱，他表示美國可能需要再次打擊伊朗，並透露他在推遲之前曾距離下令攻擊僅有一個小時</li>
<li>霍爾木茲海峽，全球約五分之一的石油供應通過此處運輸，因美以與伊朗的衝突而實際上處於關閉狀態，根據國際能源署的説法，這代表了全球最大的石油供應中斷</li>
<li>根據市場消息引用的 API 數據，美國原油庫存連續第五週下降，預計週三發佈的 EIA 數據將顯示截至 5 月 15 日的一週再減少約 340 萬桶</li>
<li>分析師指出，即使確認達成和平協議，原油供應也不會迅速恢復到戰爭前的水平，價格在任何短期外交解決方案之外仍將保持結構性高位。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Oil prices eased in early trade on Wednesday after President Trump told US lawmakers the war with Iran would end very quickly, but the move lower was modest and tentative, reflecting a market that has learned to treat the administration's daily shifts in tone with considerable caution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三早盤，油價在特朗普告訴美國立法者與伊朗的戰爭將很快結束後有所回落，但下跌幅度温和且猶豫，反映出市場已經學會對政府每日語調的變化保持相當謹慎。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude fell 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $110.83 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $103.88. Both benchmarks had already given back nearly a dollar on Tuesday after Vice President Vance said meaningful progress had been made in talks between Washington and Tehran, with neither side seeking a return to active hostilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而西德克薩斯中質原油下滑 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元。在副總統範斯表示華盛頓與德黑蘭之間的談判取得了實質性進展後，雙方都不希望恢復敵對行動，週二這兩個基準油價已經回落近 1 美元。</p>
</div><p>The diplomatic optimism, however, is running alongside language from Trump himself that points in the opposite direction. On the same day he asserted a quick resolution to lawmakers, he said the United States may need to strike Iran again, and disclosed that he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before choosing to postpone it. The contradiction has become characteristic of the market's operating environment, with analysts noting that the US stance is shifting on a daily basis and that investors are struggling to gauge whether Washington and Tehran can find genuine common ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，外交樂觀情緒與特朗普本人所説的相反。就在他向立法者聲稱迅速解決的同一天，他表示美國可能需要再次打擊伊朗，並透露他在選擇推遲之前曾距離下令攻擊僅有一個小時。這種矛盾已成為市場運作環境的特徵，分析師指出美國的立場每天都在變化，投資者難以判斷華盛頓與德黑蘭是否能夠找到真正的共同點。</p>
</div><p>The structural supply picture provides a persistent floor beneath prices regardless of the diplomatic noise. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of global oil supplies normally flows, remains effectively closed as a consequence of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, a disruption the International Energy Agency has described as the largest to global oil supply on record. Countries are drawing on commercial and strategic inventories to fill the gap, a trend reflected in US crude stockpile data showing a fifth consecutive weekly decline, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures released on Tuesday. EIA data due later on Wednesday is expected to confirm a further draw of around 3.4 million barrels for the week ending May 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結構性供應形勢為價格提供了持續的支撐，無論外交噪音如何。霍爾木茲海峽，通常約五分之一的全球石油供應通過此處運輸，因美以與伊朗的衝突而實際上處於關閉狀態，國際能源署將這一中斷描述為全球石油供應有記錄以來最大的中斷。各國正在動用商業和戰略庫存來填補這一缺口，市場消息引用的美國石油庫存數據顯示，原油庫存連續第五週下降，週三晚些時候發佈的 EIA 數據預計將確認截至 5 月 15 日的一週再減少約 340 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>Analysts cautioned that even a confirmed peace deal would not rapidly unwind the supply disruption, with crude flows unlikely to return quickly to pre-war levels once hostilities formally cease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師警告稱，即使確認達成和平協議，供應中斷也不會迅速解除，原油流動在敵對行動正式停止後也不太可能迅速恢復到戰爭前的水平。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The price action reflects a market that has heard Trump's optimistic framing before and is discounting it accordingly. The gap between his assertion of a quick end to the war and his earlier comment that he may need to strike Iran again within days encapsulates the whipsaw dynamic that has characterised oil trading since the conflict began. The more durable bearish signal would be a confirmed and durable Hormuz reopening, which analysts note would still not immediately return supply to pre-war levels even if a peace deal were struck. On the bullish side, a fifth consecutive weekly draw in US crude inventories underlines the ongoing drain on commercial stocks as countries lean on reserves to fill the supply gap left by Hormuz disruption, providing a structural floor under prices even as geopolitical headlines swing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格走勢反映出市場已經聽過特朗普的樂觀表述，並據此進行折扣。他關於戰爭將迅速結束的説法與他早前提到的可能需要在幾天內再次打擊伊朗的評論之間的差距，概括了自衝突開始以來油價交易的劇烈波動。更持久的看跌信號將是霍爾木茲海峽的確認和持久重開，分析師指出，即使達成和平協議，供應也不會立即恢復到戰爭前的水平。在看漲方面，美國原油庫存連續第五週下降，突顯出各國依賴儲備來填補霍爾木茲海峽中斷所留下的供應缺口，儘管地緣政治頭條不斷變化，但仍為價格提供了結構性支撐。</p>
</div>

Oil slips a little on Trump peace talk but supply fears keep prices elevated

Investinglive

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能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

油價因特朗普的和平談話略微下跌，但供應憂慮仍使價格維持在高位