<p>花旗預測布倫特原油近期將達到每桶 120 美元，警告油市低估了長期供應中斷風險，如果霍爾木茲海峽在第三季度僅逐步重新開放，牛市情景將達到每桶 150 美元。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong> 來自花旗週二發佈的報告：</p>
<ul>
<li>花旗預測布倫特原油近期將達到每桶 120 美元，認為油市目前低估了長期供應中斷的風險以及霍爾木茲關閉帶來的更廣泛尾部風險</li>
<li>該行的牛市情景將布倫特原油價格設定為每桶 150 美元，前提是霍爾木茲海峽在 2026 年第三季度僅逐步重新開放</li>
<li>花旗的 2027 年中央情景預計布倫特原油價格將在每桶 80 至 90 美元之間，假設伊朗最終恢復對霍爾木茲流量的控制，並平衡石油出口與需求增長預期，這意味着一旦供應正常化，價格將出現劇烈修正</li>
<li>該行預測 2026 年石油需求增長將收縮 60 萬桶/日，儘管它警告説，表面需求疲軟誇大了實際消費的下降，因為庫存減少和煉油廠減產掩蓋了相對有限的最終使用需求破壞</li>
<li>花旗估計，全球石油庫存將在 2026 年減少約 10 億桶，這一數字突顯了霍爾木茲中斷所造成的實際供應缺口的規模。</li>
</ul>
<p>花旗預測布倫特原油近期將上漲至每桶 120 美元，並在週二發佈的研究報告中警告，油市在實質上低估了長期供應中斷的風險以及與霍爾木茲海峽持續關閉相關的更廣泛尾部風險。</p>
<p>該行的基本情景基於一個簡單的觀察：市場並未充分反映出中斷可能持續的時間遠超當前定位的可能性。布倫特原油交易價格在 110 至 111 美元之間，花旗的 120 美元目標代表了當前水平約 8% 至 9% 的額外上漲，這一漲幅該行認為僅憑供應基本面就足以合理化，而不需要進一步的升級溢價。</p>
<p>在其牛市情景中，花旗將布倫特原油價格設定為每桶 150 美元，這一水平將代表歷史上持續的最高原油價格。該結果的前提是霍爾木茲海峽在第三季度僅逐步重新開放，在這種情況下，實際供應缺口在開始縮小之前進一步擴大。霍爾木茲海峽通常是全球約五分之一石油供應的通道，自美以衝突與伊朗爆發以來，該海峽實際上已關閉，國際能源署將這一中斷描述為有記錄以來最大的一次。</p>
<p>供應衝擊的規模在花旗的庫存預測中得以體現。該行估計，全球石油庫存將在 2026 年減少約 10 億桶，這一驚人的數字説明當前供應與實際充足之間的緩衝區是如何迅速被消耗的。以這種速度，市場在沒有觸發更嚴重價格反應的情況下吸收進一步中斷的能力隨着年份的推移顯著降低。</p>
<p>在需求方面，花旗預測 2026 年石油消費增長將收縮 60 萬桶/日。然而，該行警告不要將此解讀為最終使用需求崩潰的證據。庫存減少和煉油廠減產掩蓋了實際最終用户消費的相對有限破壞，這意味着表面需求疲軟美化了潛在情況，實際供需平衡比頭條數字所暗示的要緊張得多。</p>
<p>展望未來，花旗的 2027 年中央情景預計布倫特原油價格將在每桶 80 至 90 美元之間，前提是伊朗最終恢復霍爾木茲流量，並平衡其石油出口與需求增長預期。該前景與當前牛市情景之間的差距清楚地表明，價格路徑變得多麼二元化，霍爾木茲的任何解決方案的時機和條件是全球石油市場中最重要的變量。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>花旗的 120 美元近期目標和 150 美元牛市情景對任何將當前市場視為適當定價風險的解讀構成了重大挑戰。布倫特原油交易價格在 110 至 111 美元之間，該行的基本情景暗示僅憑供應中斷，當前水平將進一步上漲 8% 至 9%，而不需要添加任何升級溢價。今年全球庫存減少 10 億桶的預測是報告中最引人注目的單一數字：以這種速度，當前供應條件與真正的物理短缺之間的緩衝迅速壓縮，市場在沒有價格飆升的情況下吸收進一步中斷的能力隨着每週的推移而降低。2026 年牛市情景與 2027 年 80 至 90 美元的中央情景之間的對比突顯了前景的二元性，幾乎完全取決於霍爾木茲海峽是否以及何時重新開放，以及伊朗的石油出口以何種條件恢復。</p>

西方石油

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

<p>花旗銀行預計布倫特原油價格將很快達到每桶 120 美元，原因是供應中斷風險被低估。在一個樂觀的情景下，如果霍爾木茲海峽在 2026 年第三季度逐步重新開放，價格可能達到 150 美元。該銀行警告稱，2026 年將出現 10 億桶的顯著庫存減少，表明供需平衡趨緊。對於 2027 年，花旗銀行預計價格將在每桶 80 到 90 美元之間，具體取決於伊朗恢復石油流動</p>

<p>Citi forecasts Brent crude will reach $120 per barrel near term, warning oil markets are under-pricing prolonged supply disruption risk, with a bull case of $150 if Hormuz reopens only gradually in Q3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗預測布倫特原油近期將達到每桶 120 美元，警告油市低估了長期供應中斷風險，如果霍爾木茲海峽在第三季度僅逐步重新開放，牛市情景將達到每桶 150 美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong> From a Citi note published Tuesday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong> 來自花旗週二發佈的報告：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Citi forecasts Brent crude will reach $120 per barrel in the near term, arguing that oil markets are currently under-pricing the risk of a prolonged supply disruption and broader tail risks from the Hormuz closure</li>
<li>The bank's bull-case scenario puts Brent at $150 per barrel, premised on the Strait of Hormuz reopening only gradually during the third quarter of 2026</li>
<li>Citi's 2027 central case sees Brent ranging between $80 and $90 per barrel, assuming Iran ultimately restores control of Hormuz flows and balances oil exports with demand growth expectations, implying a sharp price correction once supply normalises</li>
<li>The bank forecasts 2026 oil demand growth will contract by 0.6 million barrels per day, though it cautions that apparent demand weakness overstates real consumption declines, as inventory drawdowns and refinery cuts are masking relatively limited end-use demand destruction</li>
<li>Citi estimates global oil inventories will draw by approximately 1 billion barrels over the course of 2026, a figure that underscores the scale of the physical supply gap created by the Hormuz disruption</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>花旗預測布倫特原油近期將達到每桶 120 美元，認為油市目前低估了長期供應中斷的風險以及霍爾木茲關閉帶來的更廣泛尾部風險</li>
<li>該行的牛市情景將布倫特原油價格設定為每桶 150 美元，前提是霍爾木茲海峽在 2026 年第三季度僅逐步重新開放</li>
<li>花旗的 2027 年中央情景預計布倫特原油價格將在每桶 80 至 90 美元之間，假設伊朗最終恢復對霍爾木茲流量的控制，並平衡石油出口與需求增長預期，這意味着一旦供應正常化，價格將出現劇烈修正</li>
<li>該行預測 2026 年石油需求增長將收縮 60 萬桶/日，儘管它警告説，表面需求疲軟誇大了實際消費的下降，因為庫存減少和煉油廠減產掩蓋了相對有限的最終使用需求破壞</li>
<li>花旗估計，全球石油庫存將在 2026 年減少約 10 億桶，這一數字突顯了霍爾木茲中斷所造成的實際供應缺口的規模。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Citi has forecast Brent crude will rise to $120 per barrel in the near term, warning in a research note published Tuesday that oil markets are materially under-pricing both the risk of a prolonged supply disruption and the broader tail risks associated with the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗預測布倫特原油近期將上漲至每桶 120 美元，並在週二發佈的研究報告中警告，油市在實質上低估了長期供應中斷的風險以及與霍爾木茲海峽持續關閉相關的更廣泛尾部風險。</p>
</div><p>The bank's base case rests on a straightforward observation: the market is not adequately reflecting the possibility that the disruption could last significantly longer than current positioning implies. With Brent trading around $110 to $111, Citi's $120 target represents approximately 8% to 9% of additional upside from current levels, a move the bank regards as justified by supply fundamentals alone, before any further escalation premium is layered on top.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行的基本情景基於一個簡單的觀察：市場並未充分反映出中斷可能持續的時間遠超當前定位的可能性。布倫特原油交易價格在 110 至 111 美元之間，花旗的 120 美元目標代表了當前水平約 8% 至 9% 的額外上漲，這一漲幅該行認為僅憑供應基本面就足以合理化，而不需要進一步的升級溢價。</p>
</div><p>In its bull-case scenario, Citi puts Brent at $150 per barrel, a level that would represent the highest sustained crude price in history. That outcome is premised on the Strait of Hormuz reopening only gradually over the course of the third quarter, a scenario in which the physical supply gap widens further before it begins to close. The Strait, through which approximately a fifth of global oil supplies normally passes, has been effectively closed since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, a disruption the International Energy Agency has described as the largest on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其牛市情景中，花旗將布倫特原油價格設定為每桶 150 美元，這一水平將代表歷史上持續的最高原油價格。該結果的前提是霍爾木茲海峽在第三季度僅逐步重新開放，在這種情況下，實際供應缺口在開始縮小之前進一步擴大。霍爾木茲海峽通常是全球約五分之一石油供應的通道，自美以衝突與伊朗爆發以來，該海峽實際上已關閉，國際能源署將這一中斷描述為有記錄以來最大的一次。</p>
</div><p>The scale of the supply shock is captured in Citi's inventory forecast. The bank estimates global oil stocks will draw by approximately 1 billion barrels over the course of 2026, an extraordinary figure that illustrates how rapidly the cushion between current supply and physical adequacy is being consumed. At that pace, the market's ability to absorb further disruption without triggering a more severe price response diminishes significantly as the year progresses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應衝擊的規模在花旗的庫存預測中得以體現。該行估計，全球石油庫存將在 2026 年減少約 10 億桶，這一驚人的數字説明當前供應與實際充足之間的緩衝區是如何迅速被消耗的。以這種速度，市場在沒有觸發更嚴重價格反應的情況下吸收進一步中斷的能力隨着年份的推移顯著降低。</p>
</div><p>On demand, Citi forecasts 2026 oil consumption growth will contract by 0.6 million barrels per day. However, the bank cautions against reading this as evidence that end-use demand has collapsed. Inventory drawdowns and refinery run cuts are masking relatively limited destruction of actual end-user consumption, meaning the apparent demand weakness flatters the underlying picture and the real supply-demand balance is tighter than headline figures suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在需求方面，花旗預測 2026 年石油消費增長將收縮 60 萬桶/日。然而，該行警告不要將此解讀為最終使用需求崩潰的證據。庫存減少和煉油廠減產掩蓋了實際最終用户消費的相對有限破壞，這意味着表面需求疲軟美化了潛在情況，實際供需平衡比頭條數字所暗示的要緊張得多。</p>
</div><p>Looking further out, Citi's 2027 central case sees Brent settling into an $80 to $90 per barrel range, contingent on Iran eventually restoring Hormuz flows and balancing its oil exports against demand growth expectations. The gap between that outlook and the current bull case illustrates just how binary the price path has become, with the timing and terms of any Hormuz resolution the single most important variable in the global oil market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，花旗的 2027 年中央情景預計布倫特原油價格將在每桶 80 至 90 美元之間，前提是伊朗最終恢復霍爾木茲流量，並平衡其石油出口與需求增長預期。該前景與當前牛市情景之間的差距清楚地表明，價格路徑變得多麼二元化，霍爾木茲的任何解決方案的時機和條件是全球石油市場中最重要的變量。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Citi's $120 near-term target and $150 bull case represent a significant challenge to any reading of the current market as adequately priced for risk. With Brent trading around $110 to $111, the bank's base case implies a further 8% to 9% upside from current levels on supply disruption alone, before any escalation premium is added. The forecast of a 1 billion barrel global inventory draw this year is the most striking single figure in the note: at that pace, the buffer between current supply conditions and a genuine physical shortage compresses rapidly, and the market's ability to absorb further disruption without a price spike diminishes with each passing week. The contrast between the 2026 bull case and the 2027 central case of $80 to $90 underscores just how binary the outlook is, hinging almost entirely on whether and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens and on what terms Iran's oil exports resume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗的 120 美元近期目標和 150 美元牛市情景對任何將當前市場視為適當定價風險的解讀構成了重大挑戰。布倫特原油交易價格在 110 至 111 美元之間，該行的基本情景暗示僅憑供應中斷，當前水平將進一步上漲 8% 至 9%，而不需要添加任何升級溢價。今年全球庫存減少 10 億桶的預測是報告中最引人注目的單一數字：以這種速度，當前供應條件與真正的物理短缺之間的緩衝迅速壓縮，市場在沒有價格飆升的情況下吸收進一步中斷的能力隨着每週的推移而降低。2026 年牛市情景與 2027 年 80 至 90 美元的中央情景之間的對比突顯了前景的二元性，幾乎完全取決於霍爾木茲海峽是否以及何時重新開放，以及伊朗的石油出口以何種條件恢復。</p>
</div>

Citi bull case Brent hitting $150 near term as oil markets under-price disruption risk

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在花旗銀行的看漲情境中，由於油市低估了破壞風險，布倫特原油價格可能在短期內達到 150 美元