<p>黃金在五月初的反彈開始顯得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>在本月初因希望美伊緊張局勢緩解而導致油價驅動的通脹擔憂減輕而急劇反彈後，黃金在週三回落，因為宏觀背景變得不那麼友好。</p>
<p>現貨黃金下跌 0.3%，報每盎司 4,467.59 美元，而美國黃金期貨下跌 0.9%，報 4,471.10 美元。</p>
<p>壓力來自熟悉的因素，包括美國國債收益率上升和美元走強，這兩者都使得無收益的黃金更難持有。</p>
<p>這一走勢並不意味着黃金的牛市前景已經消失。</p>
<p>地緣政治風險依然高企，油價仍然高企，投資者在等待美聯儲最新的政策信號。</p>
<p>但目前，市場明確傳達出一個信息：僅僅寄希望於和平並不足以在收益率和美元走強的情況下提振黃金。</p>
<p><strong>更高的收益率讓黃金處於防守狀態</strong></p>
<p>對黃金最大的拖累來自債券市場。</p>
<p>由於投資者重新評估通脹可能持續高企的風險，美國國債收益率上升。這一點很重要，因為黃金不支付任何收入。</p>
<p>當債券收益率上升時，持有黃金的機會成本上升，使得國債和其他有息資產相對更具吸引力。</p>
<p>10 年期國債收益率維持在一年多來的最高水平附近，給黃金施加了壓力。</p>
<p>這已成為黃金面臨的關鍵宏觀逆風，因為當地緣政治不確定性支撐避險需求時，更高的收益率可以迅速削弱這種支撐。</p>
<p>利率背景也發生了變化。</p>
<p>費城聯邦儲備銀行行長安娜·保爾森表示，目前的利率有助於抑制通脹，但也暗示加息仍然是可能的。</p>
<p>這足以讓交易員在週三稍晚即將公佈的美聯儲四月政策會議紀要之前保持謹慎。</p>
<p><strong>強勢美元削弱黃金需求</strong></p>
<p>第二個壓力點是美元。</p>
<p>美元交易接近六週高位，受到避險需求和加息預期上升的支持。</p>
<p>通常情況下，強勢美元會對黃金施加壓力，因為黃金以美元計價。</p>
<p>當美元上漲時，黃金對使用其他貨幣的買家變得更加昂貴，這可能會在邊際上減少需求。</p>
<p>這正是黃金目前面臨的局面。</p>
<p>美元指數穩定在 99.306，並在五月上漲超過 1%，受避險資金流入和市場對美聯儲可能在今年晚些時候收緊政策的日益信心的推動。</p>
<p>根據 CME FedWatch，交易員預計 12 月加息的概率超過 50%。</p>
<p>這與早期的敍述形成了鮮明對比，當時投資者關注的是可能的降息。</p>
<p>對於黃金而言，這一差異至關重要，因為較弱的美元和下降的加息預期往往像燃料一樣推動黃金。</p>

紐蒙特礦業

中金黃金

<p>黃金價格承壓，現貨黃金下跌 0.3%，至 4,467.59 美元，美國黃金期貨下跌 0.9%，至 4,471.10 美元。此次下跌歸因於美國國債收益率上升和美元走強，這增加了持有無收益黃金的機會成本。儘管面臨這些挑戰，地緣政治風險和高油價仍然保持了黃金的長期看漲前景，因為投資者在等待美聯儲的信號</p>

<p>Gold’s early-May rebound is starting to look more fragile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金在五月初的反彈開始顯得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>After rallying sharply earlier this month on hopes that easing US-Iran tensions would cool oil-driven inflation fears, bullion slipped on Wednesday as the macro backdrop turned less friendly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本月初因希望美伊緊張局勢緩解而導致油價驅動的通脹擔憂減輕而急劇反彈後，黃金在週三回落，因為宏觀背景變得不那麼友好。</p>
</div><p>Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,467.59 an ounce, while US gold futures dropped 0.9% to $4,471.10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨黃金下跌 0.3%，報每盎司 4,467.59 美元，而美國黃金期貨下跌 0.9%，報 4,471.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>The pressure came from familiar forces, including higher US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, both of which make non-yielding gold harder to own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壓力來自熟悉的因素，包括美國國債收益率上升和美元走強，這兩者都使得無收益的黃金更難持有。</p>
</div><p>The move does not mean gold’s bull case has disappeared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一走勢並不意味着黃金的牛市前景已經消失。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical risk remains elevated, oil prices are still high, and investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地緣政治風險依然高企，油價仍然高企，投資者在等待美聯儲最新的政策信號。</p>
</div><p>But for now, the market is sending a clear message that peace hopes alone are not enough to lift gold when yields and the dollar are moving against it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前，市場明確傳達出一個信息：僅僅寄希望於和平並不足以在收益率和美元走強的情況下提振黃金。</p>
</div><p><strong>Higher yields put gold back on defensive</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>更高的收益率讓黃金處於防守狀態</strong></p>
</div><p>The biggest drag on gold is coming from the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對黃金最大的拖累來自債券市場。</p>
</div><p>US Treasury yields have risen as investors reassess the risk that inflation could stay hotter for longer. That matters because gold pays no income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於投資者重新評估通脹可能持續高企的風險，美國國債收益率上升。這一點很重要，因為黃金不支付任何收入。</p>
</div><p>When bond yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding bullion rises, making Treasuries and other interest-bearing assets more attractive by comparison.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當債券收益率上升時，持有黃金的機會成本上升，使得國債和其他有息資產相對更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury yields were holding near their highest level in more than a year, adding pressure on bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期國債收益率維持在一年多來的最高水平附近，給黃金施加了壓力。</p>
</div><p>This has become the key macro headwind for gold, as when geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, higher yields can blunt that support quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這已成為黃金面臨的關鍵宏觀逆風，因為當地緣政治不確定性支撐避險需求時，更高的收益率可以迅速削弱這種支撐。</p>
</div><p>The rate backdrop has also shifted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率背景也發生了變化。</p>
</div><p>Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said current interest rates are helping curb inflation, but also suggested rate hikes remain a possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>費城聯邦儲備銀行行長安娜·保爾森表示，目前的利率有助於抑制通脹，但也暗示加息仍然是可能的。</p>
</div><p>That was enough to keep traders cautious ahead of the minutes from the Fed’s April policy meeting, due later on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這足以讓交易員在週三稍晚即將公佈的美聯儲四月政策會議紀要之前保持謹慎。</p>
</div><p><strong>A firm dollar cuts into bullion demand</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>強勢美元削弱黃金需求</strong></p>
</div><p>The second pressure point is the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二個壓力點是美元。</p>
</div><p>The US currency was trading near a six-week high, supported by haven demand and rising rate-hike expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元交易接近六週高位，受到避險需求和加息預期上升的支持。</p>
</div><p>A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold because bullion is priced in dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情況下，強勢美元會對黃金施加壓力，因為黃金以美元計價。</p>
</div><p>When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can reduce demand at the margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當美元上漲時，黃金對使用其他貨幣的買家變得更加昂貴，這可能會在邊際上減少需求。</p>
</div><p>That is exactly the setup gold is facing now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是黃金目前面臨的局面。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index was steady at 99.306 and up more than 1% in May, helped by safe-haven flows and the market’s growing belief that the Fed could still tighten policy later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指數穩定在 99.306，並在五月上漲超過 1%，受避險資金流入和市場對美聯儲可能在今年晚些時候收緊政策的日益信心的推動。</p>
</div><p>Traders were pricing in more than a 50% chance of a December rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CME FedWatch，交易員預計 12 月加息的概率超過 50%。</p>
</div><p>This is a sharp change from the earlier narrative, when investors had been focused on possible rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這與早期的敍述形成了鮮明對比，當時投資者關注的是可能的降息。</p>
</div><p>For gold, the difference is crucial as a weaker dollar and falling rate expectations tend to act like fuel for bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於黃金而言，這一差異至關重要，因為較弱的美元和下降的加息預期往往像燃料一樣推動黃金。</p>
</div>

黃金價格走弱：兩大原因導致金價承壓