<p>最近，現貨黃金持續出現劇烈拋售，跌破每盎司 4500 美元的心理關口。5 月 20 日</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png"/></p>
<p>由於霍爾木茲海峽的地緣政治僵局持續，油價保持高位，許多國家的美元流動性持續承壓，迫使它們出售黃金；與此同時，印度大幅提高了黃金進口關税。全球央行在第一季度的黃金購買低於預期，加上通脹和加息預期上升等多重因素，顯著壓制了黃金價格。尤其是在美國國債收益率飆升的背景下（10 年期國債收益率超過 4.5%，30 年期國債收益率超過 5.0%），持有黃金的成本增加，風險收益比惡化，CTA 和槓桿基金被迫平倉，從而加劇了短期波動。此外，在石油供應衝擊的影響下，黃金與油價呈現出強烈的負相關關係，而黃金與股市則表現出相對正相關。這表明黃金市場尚未為避險情景做好準備。然而，儘管投機性淨多頭頭寸明顯減少，但之前湧入黃金的零售資金尚未完全退出市場。這使得黃金市場處於持續脆弱的狀態：對任何關於中東僵局、加息或美元走強的負面消息反應過度。此外，黃金價格對實際利率上升仍高度敏感，黃金的調整在短期內不太可能結束。黃金的短期突破錶明，在當前的交易邏輯下，它尚未進入避險模式，而是繼續表現出高度貝塔風險資產的特徵。這意味着市場將保持在風險釋放的波動期，投資者在戰術層面需要保持謹慎和耐心。然而，從戰略上看，我們對黃金依然看漲：在暫時的流動性緊縮結束後，長期邏輯將恢復，財政惡化、美元多元化和地緣政治不確定性將繼續增強黃金作為保險資產的作用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>全球央行黃金購買略微減少支持</strong></h2>
<p>自俄烏衝突以來，全球央行（尤其是新興市場央行）持續的黃金購買是支撐黃金價格的最穩定力量。</p>
<p>自俄烏衝突以來，全球央行（尤其是新興市場央行）持續的黃金購買是支撐黃金價格的最穩定力量。</p>
<p>在美伊衝突期間，一個關鍵變化是一些央行因流動性壓力被迫成為黃金賣家。例如，土耳其央行在 3 月通過銷售和掉期操作出售了約 60 噸黃金儲備，以捍衞因能源進口成本飆升而暴跌的里拉。此外，印度最近將黃金進口關税翻倍至 15%，並實施嚴格的進口配額，以應對外匯壓力，這可能導致印度私人黃金需求下降，給黃金價格帶來暫時壓力。考慮到當前的地緣政治風險和高油價的影響，美元流動性壓力將持續，一些面臨美元流動性短缺的央行可能會繼續出售黃金。然而，許多地區仍在戰略性地增加黃金儲備。例如，中國人民銀行在 4 月再次加快了黃金購買，標誌着連續第 17 個月增加。目前，全球其他央行的結構性購買在這一高黃金價格和波動性時期有所放緩，許多人在等待更好的入場時機。這種短期戰術沉寂已成為削弱黃金價格的重要力量。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>儘管央行黃金購買目前正在放緩，但預計到 2026 年，平均每月購買量仍將達到 60 噸。目前，全球央行黃金購買數據顯著被低估，因為大部分並未正式披露。通過英國海關的淨黃金出口數據和倫敦黃金庫的變化，可以追蹤到大量隱藏的購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>儘管央行黃金購買目前正在放緩，但預計到 2026 年，平均每月購買量仍將達到 60 噸。目前，全球央行黃金購買數據顯著被低估，因為大部分並未正式披露。通過英國海關的淨黃金出口數據和倫敦黃金庫的變化，可以追蹤到大量隱藏的購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>黃金價格在短期內將保持波動，但中長期的積極邏輯依然存在</strong></h2>
<p>黃金的未來趨勢將取決於三個階段：</p>
<ol>
<li>當前的通脹衝擊階段。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>當前的通脹衝擊階段。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>通貨膨脹衝擊和高利率抑制：黃金價格仍面臨波動風險；2) 增長放緩階段：高油價拖累經濟，導致全球增長放緩；3) 政策轉變階段：隨着經濟下行壓力加大，全球各國央行開始迴歸寬鬆，實際利率下降，黃金重新進入上升週期。目前，中東局勢仍不確定，油價高企，通脹預期和實際利率均在上升。此外，對雙重通脹的擔憂加劇，將進一步鞏固全球央行的鷹派立場。高實際利率也增加了持有黃金的機會成本。短期內，黃金價格預計將在 4500 美元附近大幅波動，甚至可能測試 4300 美元的支撐區間。波動性將保持高位，市場情緒將保持敏感。需密切關注中東局勢的邊際變化以及 4500 美元附近的鞏固確認。下一個交易重點將是觀察油價的頂部特徵和地緣政治談判的實質性進展。如果中東局勢大幅緩解，原油的供應溢價將迅速被擠出，美元的疲軟趨勢將重新出現，黃金的壓力將得到緩解。從技術上看，投資者需要警惕 4500 美元以下的假突破。一旦市場情緒極度悲觀且看跌動能耗盡，強勁反彈突破該水平將是明確的右側買入信號。在中長期內，央行購金的基本邏輯從未動搖，歷史的重現將提供堅實的底部支撐。儘管一些新興市場在短期內出售黃金以緩解財務困難，但這僅僅是戰術上的妥協。從長期來看，世界正從單極霸權和美元主導向大國競爭和多極化轉變。目前，新興市場央行的黃金儲備僅佔其總儲備的 16%，與歷史平均水平（約 40%）相比，仍有顯著增長空間。總體而言，最近黃金價格跌破每盎司 4500 美元代表着由流動性緊縮、實際利率飆升和擁擠的多頭頭寸等多重因素驅動的壓力測試。在戰術層面，投資者需要保持足夠的安全邊際，避免盲目承擔下跌風險，等待市場底部自然形成。在戰略層面，基於去美元化浪潮、西方機構資金的潛在進入以及債務貨幣化的長期前景，黃金長期牛市的基礎依然穩固。</li>
</ol>

紐蒙特礦業

山東黃金

阿尼科伊格爾礦業

<p>黃金價格已跌至每盎司 4,500 美元以下，原因是地緣政治緊張局勢、高油價以及印度提高進口關税的綜合影響。中央銀行已減少黃金購買，流動性壓力迫使一些機構出售黃金。儘管短期內波動性較大，但長期前景依然樂觀，因為地緣政治的不確定性和財政惡化可能增強黃金作為避險資產的作用。建議投資者在當前市場環境中保持謹慎</p>

<p>Recently, spot gold continued to experience a sharp sell-off, falling below the psychological level of $4,500 per ounce. On May 20th</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，現貨黃金持續出現劇烈拋售，跌破每盎司 4500 美元的心理關口。5 月 20 日</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png"/></p>
<p>With the geopolitical stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz persisting and oil prices remaining high, dollar liquidity in many countries continues to be under pressure, forcing them to sell gold; meanwhile, India has significantly increased import tariffs on gold. The combination of factors, including lower-than-expected global central bank gold purchases in the first quarter and rising expectations of inflation and interest rate hikes, significantly suppressed gold prices. Particularly against the backdrop of soaring US Treasury yields (10-year Treasury yields exceeding 4.5% and 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5.0%), the cost of holding gold increased, the risk-reward ratio deteriorated, and CTA and leveraged funds were forced to liquidate their positions, thus exacerbating short-term volatility. Furthermore, under the impact of oil supply shocks, gold and oil prices showed a strong negative correlation, while gold and the stock market showed a relatively positive correlation. This indicates that the gold market is not yet prepared for a safe-haven scenario. However, although speculative net long positions have clearly decreased, retail funds that previously flooded into gold &#34;currency devaluation trading&#34; have not yet fully exited the market. This leaves the gold market in a state of continued vulnerability: it overreacts to any negative news regarding the Middle East stalemate, interest rate hikes, or a stronger dollar. Furthermore, gold prices remain highly sensitive to rising real interest rates, and the gold correction is unlikely to end in the short term. The short-term breakout in gold indicates that, under the current trading logic, it has not yet entered a safe-haven mode, but continues to exhibit characteristics of a highly beta risk asset. This means that the market will remain in a volatile period of risk release, and investors need to remain cautious and patient at the tactical level. However, strategically, we remain bullish on gold: After the end of the temporary liquidity squeeze, the long-term logic will return, and fiscal deterioration, dollar diversification, and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to strengthen gold's role as an insurance asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於霍爾木茲海峽的地緣政治僵局持續，油價保持高位，許多國家的美元流動性持續承壓，迫使它們出售黃金；與此同時，印度大幅提高了黃金進口關税。全球央行在第一季度的黃金購買低於預期，加上通脹和加息預期上升等多重因素，顯著壓制了黃金價格。尤其是在美國國債收益率飆升的背景下（10 年期國債收益率超過 4.5%，30 年期國債收益率超過 5.0%），持有黃金的成本增加，風險收益比惡化，CTA 和槓桿基金被迫平倉，從而加劇了短期波動。此外，在石油供應衝擊的影響下，黃金與油價呈現出強烈的負相關關係，而黃金與股市則表現出相對正相關。這表明黃金市場尚未為避險情景做好準備。然而，儘管投機性淨多頭頭寸明顯減少，但之前湧入黃金的零售資金尚未完全退出市場。這使得黃金市場處於持續脆弱的狀態：對任何關於中東僵局、加息或美元走強的負面消息反應過度。此外，黃金價格對實際利率上升仍高度敏感，黃金的調整在短期內不太可能結束。黃金的短期突破錶明，在當前的交易邏輯下，它尚未進入避險模式，而是繼續表現出高度貝塔風險資產的特徵。這意味着市場將保持在風險釋放的波動期，投資者在戰術層面需要保持謹慎和耐心。然而，從戰略上看，我們對黃金依然看漲：在暫時的流動性緊縮結束後，長期邏輯將恢復，財政惡化、美元多元化和地緣政治不確定性將繼續增強黃金作為保險資產的作用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Global central bank gold purchases have slightly reduced support</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>全球央行黃金購買略微減少支持</strong></h2>
</div><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world (especially emerging market central banks) have been the most stable force supporting gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自俄烏衝突以來，全球央行（尤其是新興市場央行）持續的黃金購買是支撐黃金價格的最穩定力量。</p>
</div><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world (especially emerging market central banks) have been the most stable force supporting gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自俄烏衝突以來，全球央行（尤其是新興市場央行）持續的黃金購買是支撐黃金價格的最穩定力量。</p>
</div><p>During the US-Iran conflict, a key change was that some central banks were forced to become gold sellers due to liquidity pressures. For example, the Turkish central bank sold approximately 60 tons of gold reserves in March through sales and swap operations to defend the lira, which had plummeted due to soaring energy import costs. Adding to this, India recently doubled its gold import tariff to 15% and imposed strict import quotas to cope with foreign exchange pressures, which will likely lead to a decline in private gold demand in India, putting temporary pressure on gold prices. Given the current geopolitical risks and the impact of high oil prices, dollar liquidity pressures will continue, and some central banks facing dollar liquidity shortages may continue to sell gold. However, many regions continue to strategically increase their gold reserves. For example, the People's Bank of China accelerated its gold purchases again in April, marking the 17th consecutive month of increases. Currently, structural buying by other central banks globally has slowed down during this period of high gold prices and increased volatility, with many waiting for a better entry point. This short-term tactical silence has become a significant force weakening gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美伊衝突期間，一個關鍵變化是一些央行因流動性壓力被迫成為黃金賣家。例如，土耳其央行在 3 月通過銷售和掉期操作出售了約 60 噸黃金儲備，以捍衞因能源進口成本飆升而暴跌的里拉。此外，印度最近將黃金進口關税翻倍至 15%，並實施嚴格的進口配額，以應對外匯壓力，這可能導致印度私人黃金需求下降，給黃金價格帶來暫時壓力。考慮到當前的地緣政治風險和高油價的影響，美元流動性壓力將持續，一些面臨美元流動性短缺的央行可能會繼續出售黃金。然而，許多地區仍在戰略性地增加黃金儲備。例如，中國人民銀行在 4 月再次加快了黃金購買，標誌着連續第 17 個月增加。目前，全球其他央行的結構性購買在這一高黃金價格和波動性時期有所放緩，許多人在等待更好的入場時機。這種短期戰術沉寂已成為削弱黃金價格的重要力量。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Although central bank gold purchases are currently slowing, they are still expected to reach an average monthly purchase volume of 60 tons in 2026. Currently, global central bank gold purchase data is significantly underestimated because a large portion is not officially disclosed. A large amount of hidden buying can be tracked through UK customs net gold export data and changes in London gold vaults.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管央行黃金購買目前正在放緩，但預計到 2026 年，平均每月購買量仍將達到 60 噸。目前，全球央行黃金購買數據顯著被低估，因為大部分並未正式披露。通過英國海關的淨黃金出口數據和倫敦黃金庫的變化，可以追蹤到大量隱藏的購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>While central bank gold purchases are currently slowing, they are still expected to reach an average monthly purchase volume of 60 tons in 2026. Currently, global central bank gold purchase data is significantly underestimated because a large portion is not officially disclosed. A large amount of hidden buying can be tracked through UK customs net gold export data and changes in London gold vaults.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管央行黃金購買目前正在放緩，但預計到 2026 年，平均每月購買量仍將達到 60 噸。目前，全球央行黃金購買數據顯著被低估，因為大部分並未正式披露。通過英國海關的淨黃金出口數據和倫敦黃金庫的變化，可以追蹤到大量隱藏的購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Gold prices will remain volatile in the short term, but the medium- to long-term positive logic remains</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>黃金價格在短期內將保持波動，但中長期的積極邏輯依然存在</strong></h2>
</div><p>The future trend of gold will depend on three stages:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金的未來趨勢將取決於三個階段：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The current inflation shock stage.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>當前的通脹衝擊階段。</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>The current inflation shock stage.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>當前的通脹衝擊階段。</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Inflationary shocks and high interest rate suppression: Gold prices still face volatility risks; 2) Slowing growth phase: High oil prices drag down the economy, leading to a slowdown in global growth; 3) Policy shift phase: As downward pressure on the economy increases, central banks around the world are shifting back to easing, real interest rates are falling, and gold is re-entering an upward cycle. Currently, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, oil prices are high, and both inflation expectations and real interest rates are rising. Furthermore, increasing concerns about double-dip inflation will further solidify the hawkish stance of global central banks. High real interest rates also increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate widely around $4,500 in the short term, potentially even testing the $4,300 support zone. Volatility will remain high, and market sentiment will remain sensitive. Closely monitor marginal changes in the Middle East situation and confirmation of a consolidation around $4,500. The next trading focus will be on observing the topping characteristics of oil prices and substantial progress in geopolitical negotiations. If the situation in the Middle East eases substantially, the supply premium for crude oil will be quickly squeezed out, the weakening trend of the US dollar will reappear, and the heavy pressure on gold will be relieved. Technically, investors need to be wary of a false breakout below $4500. Once market sentiment becomes extremely pessimistic and the bearish momentum is exhausted, a strong recovery above this level would be a clear right-side buy signal. In the medium to long term, the underlying logic of central bank gold purchases has never wavered, and the historical recurrence will provide solid bottom support. Although some emerging markets have sold off gold in the short term to alleviate their financial difficulties, this is merely a tactical compromise. From a long-term perspective, the world is moving from unipolar hegemony and the dominance of the US dollar towards great power competition and multipolarity. Currently, emerging market central banks' gold reserves account for only 16% of their total reserves, leaving significant room for growth compared to the historical average (approximately 40%). Overall, the recent drop in gold prices below $4,500 per ounce represents a stress test driven by a combination of factors, including liquidity squeeze, a surge in real interest rates, and crowded long positions. At the tactical level, investors need to maintain a sufficient safety margin, avoid blindly taking on the risk of a decline, and wait for the market bottom to form naturally. At the strategic level, based on the wave of de-dollarization, the potential entry of Western institutional funds, and the long-term prospect of debt monetization, the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid.</li>
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<li>通貨膨脹衝擊和高利率抑制：黃金價格仍面臨波動風險；2) 增長放緩階段：高油價拖累經濟，導致全球增長放緩；3) 政策轉變階段：隨着經濟下行壓力加大，全球各國央行開始迴歸寬鬆，實際利率下降，黃金重新進入上升週期。目前，中東局勢仍不確定，油價高企，通脹預期和實際利率均在上升。此外，對雙重通脹的擔憂加劇，將進一步鞏固全球央行的鷹派立場。高實際利率也增加了持有黃金的機會成本。短期內，黃金價格預計將在 4500 美元附近大幅波動，甚至可能測試 4300 美元的支撐區間。波動性將保持高位，市場情緒將保持敏感。需密切關注中東局勢的邊際變化以及 4500 美元附近的鞏固確認。下一個交易重點將是觀察油價的頂部特徵和地緣政治談判的實質性進展。如果中東局勢大幅緩解，原油的供應溢價將迅速被擠出，美元的疲軟趨勢將重新出現，黃金的壓力將得到緩解。從技術上看，投資者需要警惕 4500 美元以下的假突破。一旦市場情緒極度悲觀且看跌動能耗盡，強勁反彈突破該水平將是明確的右側買入信號。在中長期內，央行購金的基本邏輯從未動搖，歷史的重現將提供堅實的底部支撐。儘管一些新興市場在短期內出售黃金以緩解財務困難，但這僅僅是戰術上的妥協。從長期來看，世界正從單極霸權和美元主導向大國競爭和多極化轉變。目前，新興市場央行的黃金儲備僅佔其總儲備的 16%，與歷史平均水平（約 40%）相比，仍有顯著增長空間。總體而言，最近黃金價格跌破每盎司 4500 美元代表着由流動性緊縮、實際利率飆升和擁擠的多頭頭寸等多重因素驅動的壓力測試。在戰術層面，投資者需要保持足夠的安全邊際，避免盲目承擔下跌風險，等待市場底部自然形成。在戰略層面，基於去美元化浪潮、西方機構資金的潛在進入以及債務貨幣化的長期前景，黃金長期牛市的基礎依然穩固。</li>
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Gold fell below $4,500. How long will this correction last?

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黃金價格跌破 4500 美元。這次價格調整會持續多久？