<h2>伊朗，FOMC 會議紀要要點</h2>
<ul>
<li>積極的伊朗新聞繼續提升風險偏好，但交易者希望在做出強烈承諾之前看到具體行動。</li>
<li>四月的 FOMC 會議紀要顯示，美聯儲正在考慮放棄寬鬆偏向，這可能是今年晚些時候加息的前兆。</li>
<li>澳元/美元正在反彈至其五個月區間的中間位置，交易者在等待突破的催化劑。</li>
</ul>
<p>在一天的平靜開始後，市場波動性在下午有所上升，主要受到（你猜對了）對伊朗潛在和平協議的希望以及最近 FOMC 會議紀要的推動。</p>
<p>在伊朗方面，特朗普總統宣稱美國正處於與伊朗和平談判的 “最後階段”，而伊朗外長表示該國正在認真以善意追求談判，重點是結束戰爭。實際上，我們之前已經看到過無數次這樣的頭條新聞，但沒有真正的進展，但市場仍然對這些頭條反應積極，油價在我們發稿時下跌了 6%，回到 100 美元附近。</p>
<p>與此同時，四月的 FOMC 會議紀要顯示出普遍的鷹派傾向。官員們維持利率不變，但會議紀要顯示，辯論已從下一次降息的時機轉向政策是否足夠緊縮。“許多” 參與者支持放棄聲明中的寬鬆偏向，而 “多數” 人認為如果通脹保持過高，進一步加息是可能的。</p>
<p>根據彭博社的情緒評分，會議紀要是自 2023 年 7 月以來最鷹派的：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="937" height="521" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：彭博社</em></p>
<p>對於 FOMC 成員來説，主要擔憂是關税、能源價格和其他成本壓力可能使通脹高於目標，而勞動力市場仍然足夠強勁，給美聯儲留出等待的空間。這種組合使委員會對去通脹的信心減弱。對於市場來説，關鍵的結論是近期降息的希望看起來更難以證明，而六月份的會議可能會帶來更明確的雙向信息：如果通脹數據未能改善，則維持更長時間，甚至再次收緊。</p>
<p>會議紀要應該在一定程度上支持收益率和美元，但市場目前仍更關注伊朗的發展。交易者還應注意，全球市值最大的公司 Nvidia（NVDA）將在市場收盤後發佈財報，可能會影響更廣泛的風險偏好，即使對於那些不直接交易股票的人。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>澳元技術分析：AUD/USD 4 小時圖</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1585" height="800" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：Tradingview, StoneX</em></p>
<p>從 AUD/USD 的 4 小時圖來看，匯率今天強勁反彈，受益於風險偏好的普遍恢復。該貨幣對已完成四月到五月反彈的 38.2% 回撤，接近 0.7100，現在正在恢復到其五週區間的中間位置，介於 0.7100 和 0.7270 之間。</p>
<p>從技術角度來看，只要 AUD/USD 保持在這個常見區間內，中性偏向是合適的。如果伊朗的敵對行動恢復，可能會對該貨幣對施加壓力，並導致更深的回撤，向 0.7050 或 0.7000 逼近，如果 0.7100 支撐被打破，而達成和平的共同協議（更重要的是，霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放）可能會將 AUD/USD 推回到接近 0.7270 的三年高點的阻力位。</p>
<p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
<p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市場更新視頻</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>並確保關注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>

<p>四月份的 FOMC 會議紀要顯示出向鷹派立場的轉變，討論了放棄寬鬆偏向和在通脹保持高位時可能加息的可能性。關於伊朗和平談判的積極消息提升了市場的風險偏好，推動 AUD/USD 反彈，正在其五個月的區間內恢復。交易者保持謹慎，等待 FOMC 貨幣政策和伊朗局勢的具體進展</p>

<h2>Iran, FOMC Minutes Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊朗，FOMC 會議紀要要點</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Positive Iran headlines continue to boost risk appetite, but traders will want to see concrete action before committing too strongly.</li>
<li>The April FOMC minutes show that the Fed is considering dropping its easing bias, a potential precursor to raising interest rates later this year.</li>
<li>AUD/USD is bouncing back to the middle of its 5-month range as traders wait for a catalyst for a breakout</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>積極的伊朗新聞繼續提升風險偏好，但交易者希望在做出強烈承諾之前看到具體行動。</li>
<li>四月的 FOMC 會議紀要顯示，美聯儲正在考慮放棄寬鬆偏向，這可能是今年晚些時候加息的前兆。</li>
<li>澳元/美元正在反彈至其五個月區間的中間位置，交易者在等待突破的催化劑。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>After a quiet start to the day, market volatility has picked up in the afternoon, driven by (you guessed it) hopes of potential peace deal in Iran and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一天的平靜開始後，市場波動性在下午有所上升，主要受到（你猜對了）對伊朗潛在和平協議的希望以及最近 FOMC 會議紀要的推動。</p>
</div><p>On the Iran front, President Trump proclaimed that the US was in “final stages” of peace talks with Iran, and Iran’s Foreign Minister said that the country was pursuing the path of negotiations with seriousness in good faith and the “focus is on ending the war.” Realistically, we’ve seen this type of headline countless times before with no real progress, but markets continue to react positively to the headlines, with oil prices falling by -6% back toward $100 as we go to press.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗方面，特朗普總統宣稱美國正處於與伊朗和平談判的 “最後階段”，而伊朗外長表示該國正在認真以善意追求談判，重點是結束戰爭。實際上，我們之前已經看到過無數次這樣的頭條新聞，但沒有真正的進展，但市場仍然對這些頭條反應積極，油價在我們發稿時下跌了 6%，回到 100 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the April FOMC minutes showed a generally hawkish lean. Officials held rates steady, but the minutes show that the debate has moved away from timing the next cut and toward whether policy is restrictive enough. “Many” participants backed dropping the statement’s easing bias, and “a majority” saw further rate increases as possible if inflation stays too high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，四月的 FOMC 會議紀要顯示出普遍的鷹派傾向。官員們維持利率不變，但會議紀要顯示，辯論已從下一次降息的時機轉向政策是否足夠緊縮。“許多” 參與者支持放棄聲明中的寬鬆偏向，而 “多數” 人認為如果通脹保持過高，進一步加息是可能的。</p>
</div><p>According to Bloomberg’s sentiment score, the minutes were the most hawkish they’ve been since July 2023:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據彭博社的情緒評分，會議紀要是自 2023 年 7 月以來最鷹派的：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：彭博社</em></p>
</div><p>For FOMC members, the main worry was that tariffs, energy prices and other cost pressures could keep inflation above target, while the labor market remains firm enough to give the Fed room to wait. That mix leaves the Committee sounding less confident that disinflation is on track. For markets, the key takeaway is that near-term cut hopes look harder to justify, and the June meeting may bring a more explicitly two-sided message: hold for longer, or even tighten again, if the inflation data fail to improve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 FOMC 成員來説，主要擔憂是關税、能源價格和其他成本壓力可能使通脹高於目標，而勞動力市場仍然足夠強勁，給美聯儲留出等待的空間。這種組合使委員會對去通脹的信心減弱。對於市場來説，關鍵的結論是近期降息的希望看起來更難以證明，而六月份的會議可能會帶來更明確的雙向信息：如果通脹數據未能改善，則維持更長時間，甚至再次收緊。</p>
</div><p>The minutes should support yields and the dollar at the margin, but the market remains more attuned to developments in Iran for now. Traders should also note that Nvidia (NVDA), the largest company on the planet by market capitalization, reports earnings after the market close and could impact broader risk appetite, even for those who are not trading stocks directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會議紀要應該在一定程度上支持收益率和美元，但市場目前仍更關注伊朗的發展。交易者還應注意，全球市值最大的公司 Nvidia（NVDA）將在市場收盤後發佈財報，可能會影響更廣泛的風險偏好，即使對於那些不直接交易股票的人。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>Australian Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳元技術分析：AUD/USD 4 小時圖</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Tradingview, StoneX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：Tradingview, StoneX</em></p>
</div><p>Looking at the 4-hour chart of the AUD/USD, rates are bouncing back strongly today, benefitting from the general recovery in risk appetite. The pair has completed a 38.2% retracement of the April-May rally near 0.7100 and is now recovering to the middle of its 5-week range between 0.7100 and 0.7270.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 AUD/USD 的 4 小時圖來看，匯率今天強勁反彈，受益於風險偏好的普遍恢復。該貨幣對已完成四月到五月反彈的 38.2% 回撤，接近 0.7100，現在正在恢復到其五週區間的中間位置，介於 0.7100 和 0.7270 之間。</p>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, a neutral bias is appropriate as long as AUD/USD remains within that well-trodden range. A resumption of hostilities in Iran could weigh on the pair and lead to a deeper retracement toward 0.7050 or 0.7000 if 0.7100 support breaks, whereas a mutually-agreed path to peace (and more importantly, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz) would likely drive AUD/USD back toward resistance at the 3-year high near 0.7270.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術角度來看，只要 AUD/USD 保持在這個常見區間內，中性偏向是合適的。如果伊朗的敵對行動恢復，可能會對該貨幣對施加壓力，並導致更深的回撤，向 0.7050 或 0.7000 逼近，如果 0.7100 支撐被打破，而達成和平的共同協議（更重要的是，霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放）可能會將 AUD/USD 推回到接近 0.7270 的三年高點的阻力位。</p>
</div><p><em>-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
</div><p><em>Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos</em> <em>on YouTube</em> <em>and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市場更新視頻</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>並確保關注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
</div>

FOMC 紀要轉向鷹派，澳元/美元從區間低點反彈