<p>2026 年 5 月 20 日下午 4:18（東部夏令時間）-- 多倫多證券交易所週三收復了前兩天失去的 500 多點，CIBC 表示 “使加拿大央行進入緊縮政策的門檻高於市場預期”，因為人們擔心更高的利率將提高許多公司的借貸成本，並在經濟需要它們來刺激增長時使消費者和企業處於邊緣。</p>
<p>S&amp;P/TSX 綜合指數上漲 420.59 點，漲幅為 1.25%，收於 34,161.82 點。大多數行業上漲，基礎金屬上漲 2.5%，受益於黃金價格的上漲。相比之下，電池金屬指數下跌 4.9%，能源板塊下跌 2.3%。</p>
<p>關於利率的前景，CIBC 資本市場經濟學家 Avery Shenfeld 和 Andrew Grantham 發佈了一份題為《誰真正害怕通脹，加拿大央行還是美聯儲？》的報告。</p>
<p>CIBC 的兩位經濟學家指出，飆升的油價以及通過現已關閉的霍爾木茲海峽運輸的鋁、氦氣和其他供應品的價格上漲，使市場關注全球增長的下行風險，以及更直接的通脹上行風險。這導致市場將之前對美聯儲今年降息的預期替換為加息的可能性，並預計在年底前加拿大將加息約兩次，每次 25 個基點。但他們也問道，這兩家央行中哪一家現在應該更害怕通脹，當前政策變化的相對定價是否合理？</p>
<p>CIBC 目前的利率預測顯示，兩家央行將在較長一段時間內維持利率不變，儘管該行已在 12 月為美聯儲預留了一個 25 個基點的降息，但這取決於戰爭的早期結束。CIBC 的兩位經濟學家指出，加拿大央行的表述表明，在下半年油價壓力減輕的情況下，它不會考慮在任何情況下加息，前提是霍爾木茲海峽的運輸恢復。</p>
<p>但由於這一地緣政治結果並非確定，投資者將考慮一種情景，即更持久的衝突使原油價格在今年年底前保持在三位數。Shenfeld 和 Grantham 表示，他們的分析表明，在這種情況下，美國面臨更廣泛的通脹螺旋風險，而加拿大則不太可能比美聯儲更早、更激進地加息。</p>
<p>CIBC 表示，從更遠的角度來看，情況可能會有所不同。如果原油價格大幅上漲，可能對加拿大經濟是積極的，而不是消極的，因為這可能會刺激能源部門的資本支出。或者在 CIBC 的基本情況下，如果油價回到每桶 75 美元，該行預計到 2027 年底，加拿大央行可能會將利率提高到 2.75%，前提是貿易談判的有利結果減少了對出口和商業資本支出的拖累，並開始降低失業率。但至少在今年，加拿大央行進入緊縮政策的門檻高於市場預期，至少相對於美聯儲的情況而言，CIBC 補充道。</p>
<p>BMO 資本市場同時指出，在本週消費者價格指數發佈的同時，4 月份的新住房價格指數顯示，5 月份的住房成本進一步放緩。僅房屋部分在 4 月份下降了 0.6%，是自 2009 年以來的最大降幅。按此計算，價格仍比去年低 3.5%。該行還指出，隨着市場繼續消化大量新庫存和待上線項目，前景並不樂觀。</p>
<p>另外，BMO 指出，租金增長也在繼續放緩，儘管進展比其在實際情況中看到的要慢，因為消費者價格指數反映了轉向更便宜租約等方面的延遲。在這裏，該行表示，只要移民控制使需求增長遠低於供應，向下的壓力將持續存在。“總體而言，住房仍然是經濟面臨能源和其他資源進一步挑戰時的關鍵通縮壓力來源，” 它補充道。</p>
<p>在商品方面，週三下午黃金價格上漲，因為國債收益率和美元下跌。6 月份交割的黃金上漲 25.90 美元，至每盎司 4,537.10 美元。</p>
<p>但西德克薩斯中質原油在美國總統特朗普表示與伊朗的談判已進入最後階段，並威脅如果無法達成協議將恢復攻擊後，價格大幅下跌。7 月份交割的 WTI 原油收盤下跌 5.89 美元，報每桶 98.26 美元，而 7 月份布倫特原油最後報下跌 6.18 美元，至 105.10 美元。</p>
<p>MT Newswires 不提供投資建議。未經授權的複製是嚴格禁止的。</p>

紐蒙特礦業

山東黃金

中金黃金

<p>多倫多證券交易所首次在三天內收盤上漲，漲幅為 420.59 點，收於 34,161.82 點。CIBC 指出，儘管存在通脹擔憂，加拿大央行可能不會像市場預期的那樣儘快加息。同時，房價下跌，導致通貨緊縮壓力加大。黃金價格上漲，而在地緣政治緊張局勢下，原油價格大幅下跌。CIBC 的分析表明，對加息持謹慎態度，潛在的加息取決於全球經濟狀況</p>

<p>04:18 PM EDT, 05/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday recovered much of the 500-plus points lost over the prior two sessions as CIBC said &#34;the bar to get the Bank of Canada into a tightening stance is higher than the market thinks&#34;, amid fears higher rates would lift borrowing costs for many companies and sideline them and consumers when they are needed to help spur the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 5 月 20 日下午 4:18（東部夏令時間）-- 多倫多證券交易所週三收復了前兩天失去的 500 多點，CIBC 表示 “使加拿大央行進入緊縮政策的門檻高於市場預期”，因為人們擔心更高的利率將提高許多公司的借貸成本，並在經濟需要它們來刺激增長時使消費者和企業處於邊緣。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P/TSX Composite Index closed up 420.59 points, or 1.25%. to 34,161.82. with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up 2.5%, helped by elevated gold. In contrast, the Battery Metals Index was down 4.9% and Energy was 2.3% lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P/TSX 綜合指數上漲 420.59 點，漲幅為 1.25%，收於 34,161.82 點。大多數行業上漲，基礎金屬上漲 2.5%，受益於黃金價格的上漲。相比之下，電池金屬指數下跌 4.9%，能源板塊下跌 2.3%。</p>
</div><p>On the outlook for rates, CIBC Capital Markets economists Avery Shenfeld and Andrew Grantham published a note titled 'Who really fears inflation, the Bank of Canada or the Fed?'.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於利率的前景，CIBC 資本市場經濟學家 Avery Shenfeld 和 Andrew Grantham 發佈了一份題為《誰真正害怕通脹，加拿大央行還是美聯儲？》的報告。</p>
</div><p>Soaring oil prices, alongside price hikes for aluminum, helium and other supplies shipped through the now shuttered Strait of Hormuz, have markets looking at downside risks to global growth, and more immediately, upside risks to inflation, the CIBC pair noted. That's seen markets replace earlier expectations for a Fed rate cut this year with the possibility of a hike, and price in roughly two 25 basis point increases in Canada before year end, they said. But, they also asked, which of those central banks should be in greater fear of inflation these days, and does current relative pricing for policy changes make sense?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 的兩位經濟學家指出，飆升的油價以及通過現已關閉的霍爾木茲海峽運輸的鋁、氦氣和其他供應品的價格上漲，使市場關注全球增長的下行風險，以及更直接的通脹上行風險。這導致市場將之前對美聯儲今年降息的預期替換為加息的可能性，並預計在年底前加拿大將加息約兩次，每次 25 個基點。但他們也問道，這兩家央行中哪一家現在應該更害怕通脹，當前政策變化的相對定價是否合理？</p>
</div><p>CIBC's current rate forecast has both central banks on hold for an extended period, although the bank has penciled in a quarter point rate cut for the Fed in December that is conditional on an early end to the war. The Bank of Canada's own language, suggests it will not be looking to hike rates this year in any scenario that sees the pressure from oil prices abating in the second half of the year on a resumption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the CIBC duo noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 目前的利率預測顯示，兩家央行將在較長一段時間內維持利率不變，儘管該行已在 12 月為美聯儲預留了一個 25 個基點的降息，但這取決於戰爭的早期結束。CIBC 的兩位經濟學家指出，加拿大央行的表述表明，在下半年油價壓力減輕的情況下，它不會考慮在任何情況下加息，前提是霍爾木茲海峽的運輸恢復。</p>
</div><p>But with that geopolitical outcome by no means certain, investors will put some weight on a scenario in which a more protracted conflict sees triple-digit crude prices extending from here to the end of the year, Shenfeld and Grantham said. Their analysis suggest the United States would be more at risk of a broader inflationary spiral than Canada in that scenario, making it unlikely the BoC would be hiking first and more aggressively than the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由於這一地緣政治結果並非確定，投資者將考慮一種情景，即更持久的衝突使原油價格在今年年底前保持在三位數。Shenfeld 和 Grantham 表示，他們的分析表明，在這種情況下，美國面臨更廣泛的通脹螺旋風險，而加拿大則不太可能比美聯儲更早、更激進地加息。</p>
</div><p>Further afield, things could look a bit different, according to CIBC. A very extended rise in crude prices might be more of a positive for the Canadian economy than a negative, if it triggered an acceleration in energy-sector capital spending. Or, in CIBC's base case, with a return to US$75/bbl oil prices, the bank could see the BoC nudging interest rates up to 2.75% by the end of 2027 if a favorable outcome in trade talks reduces the drag on exports and business capital spending and begins to lower unemployment. But for this year at least, the bar to get the Bank of Canada into a tightening stance is higher than the market thinks, at least relative to what the case would be for the Fed, CIBC added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 表示，從更遠的角度來看，情況可能會有所不同。如果原油價格大幅上漲，可能對加拿大經濟是積極的，而不是消極的，因為這可能會刺激能源部門的資本支出。或者在 CIBC 的基本情況下，如果油價回到每桶 75 美元，該行預計到 2027 年底，加拿大央行可能會將利率提高到 2.75%，前提是貿易談判的有利結果減少了對出口和商業資本支出的拖累，並開始降低失業率。但至少在今年，加拿大央行進入緊縮政策的門檻高於市場預期，至少相對於美聯儲的情況而言，CIBC 補充道。</p>
</div><p>BMO Capital Markets noted at the same time as the consumer price index was released this week, April's New Housing Price Index pointed to further deceleration in shelter costs for May. The house-only portion, which feeds directly into homeowners' replacement costs, fell 0.6% in April alone, the largest drop since 2009. By this measure, prices remain 3.5% below year-ago levels. And, the bank also noted, there's little relief on the horizon as the market continues to digest a glut of new inventory and a backlog of projects coming online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BMO 資本市場同時指出，在本週消費者價格指數發佈的同時，4 月份的新住房價格指數顯示，5 月份的住房成本進一步放緩。僅房屋部分在 4 月份下降了 0.6%，是自 2009 年以來的最大降幅。按此計算，價格仍比去年低 3.5%。該行還指出，隨着市場繼續消化大量新庫存和待上線項目，前景並不樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Separately, BMO noted, rent growth also continues to decelerate, although progress is slower than what it has seen on the ground as the CPI reflects delays in things like switching to cheaper leases. Here, the bank said, it looks like the downside pressure will remain as long as immigration controls keep demand growing much slower than supply. &#34;Altogether, housing continues to be a key source of disinflationary pressure as the economy faces further challenges in energy and other resources,&#34; it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外，BMO 指出，租金增長也在繼續放緩，儘管進展比其在實際情況中看到的要慢，因為消費者價格指數反映了轉向更便宜租約等方面的延遲。在這裏，該行表示，只要移民控制使需求增長遠低於供應，向下的壓力將持續存在。“總體而言，住房仍然是經濟面臨能源和其他資源進一步挑戰時的關鍵通縮壓力來源，” 它補充道。</p>
</div><p>Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Wednesday as treasury yields and the dollar fell. Gold for June delivery was upUS $25.90 to US$4,537.10 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品方面，週三下午黃金價格上漲，因為國債收益率和美元下跌。6 月份交割的黃金上漲 25.90 美元，至每盎司 4,537.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower after as U.S. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages while threatening to renew attacks if a deal cannot be reached. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $5.89 to settle at US$98.26 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$6.18 to US$105.10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但西德克薩斯中質原油在美國總統特朗普表示與伊朗的談判已進入最後階段，並威脅如果無法達成協議將恢復攻擊後，價格大幅下跌。7 月份交割的 WTI 原油收盤下跌 5.89 美元，報每桶 98.26 美元，而 7 月份布倫特原油最後報下跌 6.18 美元，至 105.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MT Newswires 不提供投資建議。未經授權的複製是嚴格禁止的。</p>
</div>

TSX 收盤：該指數在連續三次交易中首次收高