<ul>
<li>超大型油輪離開霍爾木茲海峽，壓低原油和美國兩年期國債收益率</li>
<li>美元/日元的相關性顯示前端利差仍是主要驅動因素</li>
<li>市場關注 Koeda 的講話，預計 2026 年將加息兩次</li>
<li>在 159 上方的失敗突破使美元/日元面臨更深的回調風險</li>
</ul>
<h2>海灣新聞影響油價和收益率</h2>
<p>美元/日元仍然與油價和相對央行預期緊密相關，近期海灣地區的發展、BOJ 董事會成員 Koeda 的講話以及即將發佈的美國經濟數據將繼續主導該貨幣對的走勢。</p>
<p>週三，原油、利率和美元/日元之間的聯繫再次顯現，布倫特原油價格下跌約 6%，美國兩年期國債收益率下降約八個基點，輕微施壓該貨幣對。這一波動發生在多艘超大型油輪成功離開霍爾木茲海峽的報道之後，其中包括一艘載有科威特原油、前往韓國的油輪，該油輪在海灣滯留超過兩個月，激發了人們對該地區實際供應流動可能逐漸改善的希望。</p>
<p>另有報道稱，美國與伊朗的協議可能接近達成，這也可能加劇了這一波動，儘管交易員們在最近幾周反覆聽到這一故事的不同版本，但迄今為止沒有證據表明這將導致海峽的實質性重新開放。</p>
<h2>收益率差異仍然是關鍵</h2>
<p>這一反應進一步強化了美元/日元與短期收益率差異之間的緊密聯繫，特別是美國與日本之間的差異。相關性分析顯示，該貨幣對與美國 - 日本兩年期利差之間的關係在過去五天和 20 個交易日內分別保持在 0.92 和 0.73，均略強於與美國兩年期國債收益率在同一時期的相關性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>這突顯了相對央行預期對該貨幣對的重要性。儘管海灣地區的發展通過對原油價格和美聯儲定價的影響仍然重要，但日本央行方面的動態同樣重要，這使得週四晚些時候 BOJ 董事會成員 Koeda 的講話更加受到關注。</p>
<h2>Koeda 面臨鷹派考驗</h2>
<p>Koeda 被視為日本央行董事會中較為鷹派的成員之一，曾主張日本的實際利率仍然極低，並普遍支持進一步逐步的政策正常化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：彭博社</p>
<p>在她的講話之前，隔夜指數掉期暗示 6 月加息 25 個基點的概率約為 78%，而到 7 月完全定價，第二次加息基本上在年末前已被定價。</p>
<p>對於日本央行來説，問題在於儘管政策制定者繼續收緊政策，但其傳達的信息往往顯得謹慎和鴿派，限制了加息預期可持續建立的程度。為了從國內利率的角度加強日元，Koeda 可能需要傳達更鷹派的信息，而不是市場習慣聽到的謹慎語氣。</p>
<h2>Warsh 可能最為重要</h2>
<p>除了 Koeda，未來 24 小時內的美國數據日曆繁忙，但沒有許多頂級發佈。每週失業救濟申請和初步 PMI 數據將吸引最多關注，因為它們可能影響美聯儲定價和前端國債收益率，尤其是期貨目前暗示今年約有 13 個基點的收緊和到明年中期的 26 個基點。</p>
<p>雖然日本的 CPI 數據將在週五發佈，但由於東京的通脹數據大約在三週前發佈，因此現在很少產生重大驚喜。</p>
<p>實際上，進入週末最重要的事件可能來自華盛頓，而不是數據日曆，市場將密切關注即將上任的美聯儲主席 Kevin Warsh 的講話，特朗普將在週五的宣誓儀式上正式介紹他。</p>
<h2>159 的拒絕改變了基調</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>美元/日元在原油價格和美國前端收益率下降後，突破了過去兩週的上升趨勢，之前在 159 阻力位上方的突破未能成功。如果這一突破持續，可能表明該貨幣對正在進入一個新趨勢。</p>
<p>目前，50 日移動平均線是需要立即關注的關鍵水平，若跌破將增加回調至 157.92 的風險，這是上週的突破區間。157 和 156 是更低的顯著水平，後者尤其值得關注，因為在月初的干預相關流動中吸收了強勁的賣盤。</p>
<p>在上方，159.00 仍然重要，為交易者提供了兩個附近的水平，以根據近期價格走勢構建交易策略。如果該貨幣對顯著突破 159.00，160 和 160.73 將成為關鍵關注水平。</p>
<p>振盪器發出的信息在方向偏好上大致中性，但考慮到該貨幣對在其他支持上漲的環境中未能維持在 159 上方的探測，近期的偏好是賣出反彈而不是買入回調。</p>

西方石油

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

德銀原油基金 - PowerShares

<p>美元/日元仍受油價和中央銀行預期的影響，特別是日本銀行董事會成員小田即將發表的講話。近期布倫特原油和美國國債收益率的下降使得美元/日元變得脆弱，難以突破 159 的阻力位。市場關注小田的鷹派立場以及即將上任的美聯儲主席沃什的言論，交易員們預計可能會加息。需要關注的關鍵水平是 157.92 的支撐位和 159.00 的阻力位，短期內傾向於在反彈時賣出</p>

<ul>
<li>Supertankers exit Hormuz, hammering crude and US two-year yields lower</li>
<li>USD/JPY correlations show front-end spreads remain the key driver</li>
<li>Koeda speech in focus with two BOJ hikes priced in 2026</li>
<li>Failed breaks above 159 leave USD/JPY vulnerable to deeper retracement</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>超大型油輪離開霍爾木茲海峽，壓低原油和美國兩年期國債收益率</li>
<li>美元/日元的相關性顯示前端利差仍是主要驅動因素</li>
<li>市場關注 Koeda 的講話，預計 2026 年將加息兩次</li>
<li>在 159 上方的失敗突破使美元/日元面臨更深的回調風險</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Gulf headlines hit oil and yields</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>海灣新聞影響油價和收益率</h2>
</div><p>USD/JPY remains heavily tied to oil prices and relative central bank expectations, leaving developments in the Gulf, a speech from BOJ board member Koeda, and upcoming US economic data set to remain in the driving seat for the pair in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元仍然與油價和相對央行預期緊密相關，近期海灣地區的發展、BOJ 董事會成員 Koeda 的講話以及即將發佈的美國經濟數據將繼續主導該貨幣對的走勢。</p>
</div><p>The linkages between crude, rates and USD/JPY were on full display again on Wednesday as Brent crude fell around 6% and US two-year Treasury yields dropped roughly eight basis points, weighing modestly on the pair. The moves followed reports that several supertankers had successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, including a vessel carrying Kuwaiti crude bound for South Korea that had been stranded in the Gulf for more than two months, fuelling hopes that physical supply flows from the region may gradually start to improve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三，原油、利率和美元/日元之間的聯繫再次顯現，布倫特原油價格下跌約 6%，美國兩年期國債收益率下降約八個基點，輕微施壓該貨幣對。這一波動發生在多艘超大型油輪成功離開霍爾木茲海峽的報道之後，其中包括一艘載有科威特原油、前往韓國的油輪，該油輪在海灣滯留超過兩個月，激發了人們對該地區實際供應流動可能逐漸改善的希望。</p>
</div><p>Separate reports that another US-Iran deal may be close likely added to the move, although traders have heard variations of that storyline repeatedly in recent weeks with little evidence so far that it will lead to a meaningful reopening of the strait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另有報道稱，美國與伊朗的協議可能接近達成，這也可能加劇了這一波動，儘管交易員們在最近幾周反覆聽到這一故事的不同版本，但迄今為止沒有證據表明這將導致海峽的實質性重新開放。</p>
</div><h2>Yield differentials remain king</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益率差異仍然是關鍵</h2>
</div><p>The reaction reinforced how heavily USD/JPY remains tied to short-end yield differentials, particularly between the US and Japan. Correlation analysis shows the relationship between the pair and US-Japan two-year spreads remained extremely strong over the past five and 20 trading days at 0.92 and 0.73 respectively, both slightly stronger than the correlation with outright US two-year Treasury yields over the same periods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一反應進一步強化了美元/日元與短期收益率差異之間的緊密聯繫，特別是美國與日本之間的差異。相關性分析顯示，該貨幣對與美國 - 日本兩年期利差之間的關係在過去五天和 20 個交易日內分別保持在 0.92 和 0.73，均略強於與美國兩年期國債收益率在同一時期的相關性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>That underlines the importance of relative central bank expectations for the pair. While developments in the Gulf continue to matter through their influence on crude prices and Fed pricing, the BOJ side of the equation also remains important, putting additional emphasis on remarks from BOJ board member Junko Koeda later Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這突顯了相對央行預期對該貨幣對的重要性。儘管海灣地區的發展通過對原油價格和美聯儲定價的影響仍然重要，但日本央行方面的動態同樣重要，這使得週四晚些時候 BOJ 董事會成員 Koeda 的講話更加受到關注。</p>
</div><h2>Koeda faces hawkish test</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Koeda 面臨鷹派考驗</h2>
</div><p>Koeda is viewed as one of the more hawkish members on the BOJ board, having previously argued Japan’s real interest rates remain extremely low while sounding broadly supportive of further gradual policy normalisation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Koeda 被視為日本央行董事會中較為鷹派的成員之一，曾主張日本的實際利率仍然極低，並普遍支持進一步逐步的政策正常化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>Ahead of her speech, overnight index swaps imply around a 78% chance of a 25 basis point BOJ rate hike in June with a full move priced by July, while a second increase is essentially priced by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在她的講話之前，隔夜指數掉期暗示 6 月加息 25 個基點的概率約為 78%，而到 7 月完全定價，第二次加息基本上在年末前已被定價。</p>
</div><p>The issue for the BOJ is that while policymakers continue to tighten policy, its messaging has often come across as cautious and dovish, limiting the extent to which tightening expectations have been able to build sustainably. To strengthen the yen from a domestic rates perspective, Koeda will likely need to deliver a more hawkish message rather than the cautious tone markets have become accustomed to hearing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於日本央行來説，問題在於儘管政策制定者繼續收緊政策，但其傳達的信息往往顯得謹慎和鴿派，限制了加息預期可持續建立的程度。為了從國內利率的角度加強日元，Koeda 可能需要傳達更鷹派的信息，而不是市場習慣聽到的謹慎語氣。</p>
</div><h2>Warsh may matter most</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Warsh 可能最為重要</h2>
</div><p>Beyond Koeda, the US data calendar over the next 24 hours is busy without featuring many top-tier releases. Weekly jobless claims and flash PMI data will attract the most attention given their potential influence on Fed pricing and front-end Treasury yields, especially with futures currently implying around 13 basis points of tightening this year and 26 basis points by the middle of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 Koeda，未來 24 小時內的美國數據日曆繁忙，但沒有許多頂級發佈。每週失業救濟申請和初步 PMI 數據將吸引最多關注，因為它們可能影響美聯儲定價和前端國債收益率，尤其是期貨目前暗示今年約有 13 個基點的收緊和到明年中期的 26 個基點。</p>
</div><p>While Japanese CPI data is due Friday, it rarely generates major surprises nowadays given Tokyo inflation data arrives roughly three weeks earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然日本的 CPI 數據將在週五發佈，但由於東京的通脹數據大約在三週前發佈，因此現在很少產生重大驚喜。</p>
</div><p>Realistically, the most important event heading into the weekend may come from Washington rather than the data calendar, with markets set to closely watch remarks from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh when Donald Trump formally unveils him during Friday’s swearing-in ceremony.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際上，進入週末最重要的事件可能來自華盛頓，而不是數據日曆，市場將密切關注即將上任的美聯儲主席 Kevin Warsh 的講話，特朗普將在週五的宣誓儀式上正式介紹他。</p>
</div><h2>159 rejections shift tone</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>159 的拒絕改變了基調</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY has broken the uptrend it had been sitting in over the past fortnight following the decline in crude prices and front-end US yields, having struggled to break above 159 resistance in the days beforehand. Should the break stick, it suggests the pair may be entering a new trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元在原油價格和美國前端收益率下降後，突破了過去兩週的上升趨勢，之前在 159 阻力位上方的突破未能成功。如果這一突破持續，可能表明該貨幣對正在進入一個新趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Right now, the 50DMA is the key level to monitor immediately beneath where the pair now trades, with a move below increasing the risk of a retracement back towards 157.92, the breakout zone from last week. 157 and 156 are notable levels further down, the latter especially given it absorbed strong offers during suspected intervention-related flows around the turn of the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，50 日移動平均線是需要立即關注的關鍵水平，若跌破將增加回調至 157.92 的風險，這是上週的突破區間。157 和 156 是更低的顯著水平，後者尤其值得關注，因為在月初的干預相關流動中吸收了強勁的賣盤。</p>
</div><p>On the topside, 159.00 remains important, providing traders with two nearby levels to construct setups around depending on how near-term price action evolves. If the pair were to push meaningfully above 159.00, 160 and 160.73 become the key levels to watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上方，159.00 仍然重要，為交易者提供了兩個附近的水平，以根據近期價格走勢構建交易策略。如果該貨幣對顯著突破 159.00，160 和 160.73 將成為關鍵關注水平。</p>
</div><p>The message from the oscillators is broadly neutral when it comes to directional bias, but given the pair struggled to hold probes above 159 in an environment that was otherwise supportive for upside, the preference is to sell rallies rather than buy dips in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>振盪器發出的信息在方向偏好上大致中性，但考慮到該貨幣對在其他支持上漲的環境中未能維持在 159 上方的探測，近期的偏好是賣出反彈而不是買入回調。</p>
</div>

USD/JPY Outlook: Hormuz hopes hit crude as traders eye Koeda, Warsh

Forex

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

2 倍做空彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

美元/日元前景：霍爾木茲的希望影響原油，交易員關注小枝和沃什