<p>印度之前曾面臨國際收支壓力。早期的幾次危機，包括 2013 年的危機，也是由於經常賬户壓力引發的，主要是由於貿易赤字的擴大。</p>
<p>石油和黃金進口再次對經常賬户施加壓力。更高的能源價格和西亞地區的地緣政治緊張局勢只會使情況更加惡化。</p>
<p><strong><em>但當前挑戰的不同之處在於，問題並不在於經常賬户赤字本身。這一次的不同在於，印度在資本賬户上沒有產生足夠的盈餘來抵消這一赤字。</em></strong></p>
<p>大量的外資流出和較弱的淨外商直接投資流入——由於對外投資和資金回流抵消了日益增長的總流入份額——在經常賬户赤字擴大的同時造成了壓力。</p>
<p>這使得印度面臨兩種廣泛的選擇。</p>
<p>第一種是實現經常賬户的平衡，實際上意味着修復商品貿易赤字，因為印度在服務貿易和匯款方面已經實現了盈餘。</p>
<p>第二種是產生足夠的資本賬户盈餘。</p>
<p><strong>進口管制的無效性</strong></p>
<p>修復商品貿易赤字意味着要麼減少進口，要麼更積極地推動出口。</p>
<p>印度對原油、化肥和貴金屬等大宗進口沒有真正的替代品。</p>
<p>試圖通過將進口關税提高到 15% 來限制黃金進口可能不會減少黃金需求。相反，可能會因推動黃金價格上漲而增加對黃金的投機，甚至更糟的是，鼓勵走私進入印度以避免支付關税。同樣，建議印度人避免出國旅行也不太可能有太大幫助。</p>
<p>使用進口關税和質量控制令（QCOs）可能有助於抑制進口，但也會損害下游產業的增值生產，進而影響出口。</p>
<p><strong>印度的主要出口具有高進口強度</strong></p>
<p>進口關税的另一個問題是，它們阻礙了進口，但對促進商品或服務的出口沒有任何幫助，而這正是減少貿易赤字和經常賬户赤字所需的。</p>
<p>同樣，印度許多表現較好的出口，如電子產品和製藥，都是進口密集型的。換句話説，更多的出口會導致更多的進口。</p>
<p>較弱的盧比有利於出口。批評者認為，儘管印度盧比貶值，印度的出口仍然面臨困難。這只是部分正確，因為主要是商品出口表現不佳。</p>
<p><strong>有利的匯率無法抵消其他劣勢</strong></p>
<p>有利的匯率有幫助，但無法替代解決其他劣勢，如缺乏自由貿易協定、高電力成本和其他結構性瓶頸，除非允許盧比大幅貶值。</p>
<p><strong><em>目前，印度過於專注於通過提高進口關税和加強盧比來管理進口，以至於常常忘記，較弱的盧比可以抑制進口，同時激勵出口，從而實現經常賬户平衡。</em></strong></p>
<p>這也有助於解決與進口密集型出口相關的挑戰，並通過正規渠道而非走私來鼓勵匯款。因此，這是一種比不透明的進口關税更好的管理經常賬户餘額的政策工具。</p>
<p><strong><em>印度不需要更強的盧比，而是需要一個能夠平衡美元流出和流入的匯率。</em></strong></p>
<p>但印度央行（RBI）常常通過頻繁干預外匯市場來阻止這一點，儘管經濟學家和貿易專家一再建議應提高匯率靈活性。</p>
<p>然而，修復貿易體制並不意味着不需要加強資本賬户。</p>
<p><strong>印度需要歡迎中國的外商直接投資</strong></p>
<p>導致經常賬户赤字的一個主要因素是與中國的貿易赤字不斷上升，這是印度政府長期以來一直在努力應對的問題。</p>
<p>應對與中國貿易赤字上升的唯一實際方法是鼓勵中國在所有行業的外商直接投資，除了少數戰略性行業的負面清單。最近決定允許來自陸地邊界國家的投資通過自動途徑獲得最多 10% 的實益所有權，是朝着正確方向邁出的一步，但還不夠。</p>
<p><strong><em>印度過於擔心税收規避，因此給予税務和海關官員過多的自由裁量權，以確保合規。結果是税收不確定性增加。</em></strong></p>
<p>但我們常常忘記，還有其他同樣重要的目標，尤其是——引入更多的外商直接投資和外資投資，以彌補在高交易成本的經濟中不斷上升的貿易赤字，同時在私人資本支出仍然疲軟的情況下提高國家的整體投資率。</p>
<p>當印度企業在企業所得税大幅削減和慷慨的生產鏈接激勵（PLI）補貼下仍然投資不足時，幾乎沒有其他選擇，只能歡迎外國投資。</p>
<p>這需要在一個競爭激烈的全球外資市場中，建立一個可預測和透明的税收制度。</p>
<p>這要求恢復基於居住地的資本利得税制度，並使有效的税收居住證明成為居住的充分證明。</p>
<p>加快與主要外資來源國的雙邊投資保護條約的簽署，可以在短期和長期內顯著推動資本賬户流入。</p>
<p>為了遏制外資流出，政府除了減少或取消長期資本利得税外，幾乎無能為力，同時保留較高的證券交易税（STT），以抑制散户參與者的投機性期貨和期權交易。</p>
<p>由於持續的伊朗衝突對俄羅斯有利，俄羅斯從中受益於更高的原油價格，而中國則是折扣伊朗石油的主要買家，因此衝突不太可能在短期內結束。</p>
<p>因此，印度應該主張其能源獨立，以保持能源進口賬單在可控範圍內。新德里在與俄羅斯的案例中部分展示了這一點。</p>
<p>印度應該明確表示，它不僅會從俄羅斯購買石油，還會從伊朗或其他任何具有成本效益的供應商那裏購買。</p>
<p><strong><em>印度政策制定者應專注於治癒病症——疲軟的商品出口——而不是其症狀，貶值的印度盧比。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>(Ritesh Kumar Singh 是一位商業經濟學家，Indonomics Consulting Private Limited 的首席執行官。他的 X 賬號是 @RiteshEconomist。)</em></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>觀點僅代表個人，不代表本出版物的立場。</em></strong></p>

阿尼科伊格爾礦業

紐蒙特礦業

中金黃金

<p>印度面臨國際收支挑戰，主要由於貿易赤字擴大，尤其是來自石油和黃金進口的赤字。與以往危機不同，目前的經常賬户赤字並未得到足夠的資本賬户盈餘的抵消，外資投資流出和外商直接投資流入疲軟加劇了這一問題。進口管制可能無法有效減少貿易赤字，反而可能損害出口。盧比貶值可能會刺激出口並更好地管理進口。為了解決與中國的貿易赤字，印度應鼓勵中國的外商直接投資，同時確保税制的可預測性以吸引外國投資</p>

<p>India has faced balance of payments pressures before. Earlier episodes, including the 2013 crisis, were also driven by current account pressures arising from widening trade deficits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度之前曾面臨國際收支壓力。早期的幾次危機，包括 2013 年的危機，也是由於經常賬户壓力引發的，主要是由於貿易赤字的擴大。</p>
</div><p>Oil and gold imports are once again putting pressure on the current account. Higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions in West Asia have only made things worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油和黃金進口再次對經常賬户施加壓力。更高的能源價格和西亞地區的地緣政治緊張局勢只會使情況更加惡化。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>But what makes the present challenge different is not the current account deficit itself. The difference this time is that India is not generating enough surplus on the capital account to offset it.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>但當前挑戰的不同之處在於，問題並不在於經常賬户赤字本身。這一次的不同在於，印度在資本賬户上沒有產生足夠的盈餘來抵消這一赤字。</em></strong></p>
</div><p>Large FPI outflows and weaker net FDI inflows — as outward investments and repatriation offset a growing share of gross inflows — are creating pressure at the same time when the current account deficit is widening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大量的外資流出和較弱的淨外商直接投資流入——由於對外投資和資金回流抵消了日益增長的總流入份額——在經常賬户赤字擴大的同時造成了壓力。</p>
</div><p>This leaves India with two broad choices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得印度面臨兩種廣泛的選擇。</p>
</div><p>The first is achieving balance on the current account, which in reality means fixing the goods trade deficit, as India is already running surplus on services trade and remittances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一種是實現經常賬户的平衡，實際上意味着修復商品貿易赤字，因為印度在服務貿易和匯款方面已經實現了盈餘。</p>
</div><p>The second is generating enough surplus on the capital account.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二種是產生足夠的資本賬户盈餘。</p>
</div><p><strong>Futility of import controls</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>進口管制的無效性</strong></p>
</div><p>Fixing the goods trade deficit means either cutting imports or pushing exports harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>修復商品貿易赤字意味着要麼減少進口，要麼更積極地推動出口。</p>
</div><p>India has no real substitute for large imports such as crude oil, chemical fertilisers and precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度對原油、化肥和貴金屬等大宗進口沒有真正的替代品。</p>
</div><p>Trying to restrict gold imports by raising import duty to as high as 15% may not reduce gold demand. Instead, by driving gold prices up, it may increase speculation in gold and, worse, encourage smuggling into India to avoid payment of customs duty. Similarly, advising Indians to avoid foreign travel is unlikely to help much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>試圖通過將進口關税提高到 15% 來限制黃金進口可能不會減少黃金需求。相反，可能會因推動黃金價格上漲而增加對黃金的投機，甚至更糟的是，鼓勵走私進入印度以避免支付關税。同樣，建議印度人避免出國旅行也不太可能有太大幫助。</p>
</div><p>The use of import duties and quality control orders (QCOs) may help check imports, but they also hurt value-added production in downstream industries and, in turn, exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用進口關税和質量控制令（QCOs）可能有助於抑制進口，但也會損害下游產業的增值生產，進而影響出口。</p>
</div><p><strong>India’s leading exports have high import intensity</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>印度的主要出口具有高進口強度</strong></p>
</div><p>The other problem with import duties is that they block imports but do nothing to encourage exports of goods or services, which is what is needed to reduce the trade deficit and, in turn, the current account deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進口關税的另一個問題是，它們阻礙了進口，但對促進商品或服務的出口沒有任何幫助，而這正是減少貿易赤字和經常賬户赤字所需的。</p>
</div><p>Again, many of India’s better-performing exports, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, are import intensive. In other words, more exports lead to more imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，印度許多表現較好的出口，如電子產品和製藥，都是進口密集型的。換句話説，更多的出口會導致更多的進口。</p>
</div><p>A weaker rupee supports exports. Critics argue that despite the weakening INR, India’s exports continue to struggle. That is only partly true because it is mainly goods exports that are underperforming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較弱的盧比有利於出口。批評者認為，儘管印度盧比貶值，印度的出口仍然面臨困難。這只是部分正確，因為主要是商品出口表現不佳。</p>
</div><p><strong>A favourable exchange rate cannot offset other disadvantages</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>有利的匯率無法抵消其他劣勢</strong></p>
</div><p>A favourable exchange rate helps, but it cannot substitute for addressing other disadvantages such as lack of FTAs, high power costs and other structural bottlenecks unless the rupee is allowed to decline substantially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有利的匯率有幫助，但無法替代解決其他劣勢，如缺乏自由貿易協定、高電力成本和其他結構性瓶頸，除非允許盧比大幅貶值。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>As of now, India is too focused on managing imports through a combination of higher import duties and a stronger rupee that it often forgets a weaker rupee can rein in imports while simultaneously incentivising exports needed to achieve current account balance.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>目前，印度過於專注於通過提高進口關税和加強盧比來管理進口，以至於常常忘記，較弱的盧比可以抑制進口，同時激勵出口，從而實現經常賬户平衡。</em></strong></p>
</div><p>It also helps address the challenges associated with import-intensive exports, and encourages inward remittances through formal channels instead of hawala. Therefore, it is a better policy tool for managing current account balances than opaque import duties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也有助於解決與進口密集型出口相關的挑戰，並通過正規渠道而非走私來鼓勵匯款。因此，這是一種比不透明的進口關税更好的管理經常賬户餘額的政策工具。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>India does not need a stronger rupee but an exchange rate that balances its dollar outflows with inflows.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>印度不需要更強的盧比，而是需要一個能夠平衡美元流出和流入的匯率。</em></strong></p>
</div><p>But the RBI has often prevented this through frequent interventions in the forex market despite repeated advice from economists and trade experts in favour of greater exchange-rate flexibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但印度央行（RBI）常常通過頻繁干預外匯市場來阻止這一點，儘管經濟學家和貿易專家一再建議應提高匯率靈活性。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, fixing the trade regime does not do away with the need to strengthen the capital account.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，修復貿易體制並不意味着不需要加強資本賬户。</p>
</div><p><strong>India needs to welcome Chinese FDI</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>印度需要歡迎中國的外商直接投資</strong></p>
</div><p>One major factor behind the current account deficit is the rising trade deficit with China, something the Indian government has been struggling to deal with for a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>導致經常賬户赤字的一個主要因素是與中國的貿易赤字不斷上升，這是印度政府長期以來一直在努力應對的問題。</p>
</div><p>The only practical way to deal with the rising trade deficit with China is to encourage Chinese FDI in all sectors, except a small negative list of strategic sectors. The recent decision to allow investments with up to 10% beneficial ownership from land-border countries through the automatic route is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>應對與中國貿易赤字上升的唯一實際方法是鼓勵中國在所有行業的外商直接投資，除了少數戰略性行業的負面清單。最近決定允許來自陸地邊界國家的投資通過自動途徑獲得最多 10% 的實益所有權，是朝着正確方向邁出的一步，但還不夠。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>India worries too much about tax avoidance and, as a result, gives tax and customs officials too free a hand through increased discretionary powers to ensure compliance. The result is increased tax uncertainties.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>印度過於擔心税收規避，因此給予税務和海關官員過多的自由裁量權，以確保合規。結果是税收不確定性增加。</em></strong></p>
</div><p>But we often forget that there are other equally important objectives especially — bringing in more FDI and FPI needed to make up for a steadily rising trade deficit in an economy burdened with high transaction costs, while also improving the country’s overall investment rates at a time when private capex remains weak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我們常常忘記，還有其他同樣重要的目標，尤其是——引入更多的外商直接投資和外資投資，以彌補在高交易成本的經濟中不斷上升的貿易赤字，同時在私人資本支出仍然疲軟的情況下提高國家的整體投資率。</p>
</div><p>When Indian businesses are not investing enough despite slashed corporate income tax and generous PLI subsidies, there is little option but to welcome foreign investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當印度企業在企業所得税大幅削減和慷慨的生產鏈接激勵（PLI）補貼下仍然投資不足時，幾乎沒有其他選擇，只能歡迎外國投資。</p>
</div><p>That requires, among other things, a predictable and transparent tax regime in an intensely competitive global market for foreign investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這需要在一個競爭激烈的全球外資市場中，建立一個可預測和透明的税收制度。</p>
</div><p>That calls for restoration of a residence-based capital gains taxation regime and making a valid tax residency certificate sufficient proof of residence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這要求恢復基於居住地的資本利得税制度，並使有效的税收居住證明成為居住的充分證明。</p>
</div><p>Along with expediting bilateral investment protection treaties with major foreign investment source countries, this can give a significant boost to capital account inflows in both the short and long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加快與主要外資來源國的雙邊投資保護條約的簽署，可以在短期和長期內顯著推動資本賬户流入。</p>
</div><p>To tame FPI outflows, the government cannot do much except reduce or remove long-term capital gains tax while retaining higher securities transaction taxes (STT) to discourage speculative futures and options trading by retail participants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了遏制外資流出，政府除了減少或取消長期資本利得税外，幾乎無能為力，同時保留較高的證券交易税（STT），以抑制散户參與者的投機性期貨和期權交易。</p>
</div><p>As the lingering Iran conflict suits both Russia, which benefits from higher crude oil prices, and China, which remains the dominant buyer of discounted Iranian oil, the conflict is unlikely to end anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於持續的伊朗衝突對俄羅斯有利，俄羅斯從中受益於更高的原油價格，而中國則是折扣伊朗石油的主要買家，因此衝突不太可能在短期內結束。</p>
</div><p>It is therefore time for India to assert its energy independence to keep its energy import bill manageable. New Delhi partially demonstrated this in the case of Russia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，印度應該主張其能源獨立，以保持能源進口賬單在可控範圍內。新德里在與俄羅斯的案例中部分展示了這一點。</p>
</div><p>India should make it clear that it will buy oil not only from Russia but also from Iran or any other cost-effective supplier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度應該明確表示，它不僅會從俄羅斯購買石油，還會從伊朗或其他任何具有成本效益的供應商那裏購買。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Indian policymakers should focus on curing the disease — sluggish goods exports — and not its symptom, the declining INR.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>印度政策制定者應專注於治癒病症——疲軟的商品出口——而不是其症狀，貶值的印度盧比。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong><em>(Ritesh Kumar Singh is a business economist and CEO, Indonomics Consulting Private Limited. His X account @RiteshEconomist.)</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>(Ritesh Kumar Singh 是一位商業經濟學家，Indonomics Consulting Private Limited 的首席執行官。他的 X 賬號是 @RiteshEconomist。)</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong><em>Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>觀點僅代表個人，不代表本出版物的立場。</em></strong></p>
</div>

India’s BoP challenge needs more capital, not more import controls

Money Control

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印度面臨的國際收支挑戰需要更多的資本支持，而不是加強進口管制