<p>花旗發佈報告，對黃金短期趨勢保持謹慎態度，因為霍爾木茲海峽的持續關閉和能源價格飆升導致投資者購買減少。市場擔心風險規避情緒引發賣壓，這與黃金的歷史先例一致。在強勁的投資需求和人民幣走強的支持下，中國的黃金進口支出仍保持在每年約 3000 億美元的歷史高位，幫助黃金價格維持在歷史標準的高位。然而，這並未改變投資需求下降的關鍵負面轉變，特別是在印度。該銀行推測，中國以外的零售市場可能正經歷類似趨勢。</p>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽長期僵局帶來的通脹壓力加劇了市場對美聯儲將加息的預期，從而通過更高的實際利率和強勢美元對黃金價格施加壓力。花旗對黃金的短期看法保持謹慎，設定零至三個月的黃金價格目標為每盎司 4300 美元。如果出現重大風險規避事件，黃金價格可能會遠低於這一水平。</p>
<p>花旗表示，只要霍爾木茲海峽部分或大部分關閉，至少在市場完全消化這一因素之前，將對黃金保持謹慎態度。然而，該銀行最終尋求在更長的時間範圍內進行買入。當霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢最終緩解時，花旗的新基本情景現在指向 7 月，當前對黃金的宏觀逆風，如高實際利率和強勢美元，預計將減弱，黃金價格可能會觸底反彈。</p>
<p>在霍爾木茲海峽更長期關閉和能源價格持續高企（非基本情景）的情況下，市場擔憂可能會從 “通脹無衰退” 轉向 “滯漲”，這是任何中央銀行面臨的最壞情況，因為高頻美國經濟數據仍然普遍強勁。在滯漲時期，股票和債券的回報歷史上通常為負，而貴金屬則提供了強勁的正回報。世界黃金協會最新的 2026 年第一季度數據顯示，黃金條和金幣的需求強勁，珠寶需求韌性十足，中央銀行需求回升。同時，全球最大的兩個黃金消費市場中國和印度由於當地政策變化和貨幣走勢相反，需求趨勢出現分歧。</p>

花旗

山東黃金

<p>花旗對短期黃金趨勢持謹慎態度，原因是通脹壓力和霍爾木茲海峽關閉導致投資者購買減少。儘管中國的黃金進口仍然高企，但印度需求下降引發擔憂。該銀行預計美聯儲可能加息，這將對黃金價格產生負面影響。花旗設定未來三個月黃金價格目標為每盎司 4,300 美元，並預計在風險規避時期可能出現更低價格。從長期來看，他們預計一旦宏觀逆風減弱，黃金將會反彈</p>

<p>Citi issued a report maintaining a cautious stance on the short-term trend of gold, as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and surging energy prices have led to reduced investor buying. The market is concerned about risk-off sentiment triggering selling pressure, which is consistent with historical precedents for gold. Supported by resilient investment demand and a stronger RMB, Chinas spending on gold imports has remained near a historical high of around USD300 billion per year, helping gold prices stay at elevated levels by historical standards. However, this has not altered the key negative shift of declining investment demand, particularly in India. The bank speculates that retail markets outside China may be experiencing a similar trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗發佈報告，對黃金短期趨勢保持謹慎態度，因為霍爾木茲海峽的持續關閉和能源價格飆升導致投資者購買減少。市場擔心風險規避情緒引發賣壓，這與黃金的歷史先例一致。在強勁的投資需求和人民幣走強的支持下，中國的黃金進口支出仍保持在每年約 3000 億美元的歷史高位，幫助黃金價格維持在歷史標準的高位。然而，這並未改變投資需求下降的關鍵負面轉變，特別是在印度。該銀行推測，中國以外的零售市場可能正經歷類似趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Inflation pressure stemming from the prolonged stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz has fueled market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, thereby exerting pressure on gold prices through higher real interest rates and a strong USD. Citi maintains a cautious view on gold in the short term and sets a zero- to three-month gold price target of USD4,300 per ounce. In the event of a major risk-off episode, gold prices could fall well below this level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽長期僵局帶來的通脹壓力加劇了市場對美聯儲將加息的預期，從而通過更高的實際利率和強勢美元對黃金價格施加壓力。花旗對黃金的短期看法保持謹慎，設定零至三個月的黃金價格目標為每盎司 4300 美元。如果出現重大風險規避事件，黃金價格可能會遠低於這一水平。</p>
</div><p>Citi stated that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially or largely closed, it will stay cautious on gold, at least until the market fully digests this factor. Nevertheless, the bank ultimately seeks to buy over a longer horizon. When tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eventually ease with Citis new base case now pointing to July current macro headwinds for gold, such as high real interest rates and a strong USD, are expected to moderate, and gold prices are likely to bottom out and rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗表示，只要霍爾木茲海峽部分或大部分關閉，至少在市場完全消化這一因素之前，將對黃金保持謹慎態度。然而，該銀行最終尋求在更長的時間範圍內進行買入。當霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢最終緩解時，花旗的新基本情景現在指向 7 月，當前對黃金的宏觀逆風，如高實際利率和強勢美元，預計將減弱，黃金價格可能會觸底反彈。</p>
</div><p>Under a scenario of a more prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and persistently higher energy prices (a non-base case), market concerns may shift from &#34;inflation without recession&#34; as high-frequency US economic data remain broadly resilient to &#34;stagflation,&#34; the worst-case scenario for any central bank. Historically, during stagflationary periods, returns on equities and bonds have been negative, while precious metals have delivered strongly positive returns. The World Gold Councils latest 1Q26 data showed robust demand for gold bars and coins, resilient jewelry demand, and a rebound in central bank demand. Meanwhile, the worlds two largest gold consumption markets China and India have seen divergent demand trends due to differing local policy changes and opposite currency movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在霍爾木茲海峽更長期關閉和能源價格持續高企（非基本情景）的情況下，市場擔憂可能會從 “通脹無衰退” 轉向 “滯漲”，這是任何中央銀行面臨的最壞情況，因為高頻美國經濟數據仍然普遍強勁。在滯漲時期，股票和債券的回報歷史上通常為負，而貴金屬則提供了強勁的正回報。世界黃金協會最新的 2026 年第一季度數據顯示，黃金條和金幣的需求強勁，珠寶需求韌性十足，中央銀行需求回升。同時，全球最大的兩個黃金消費市場中國和印度由於當地政策變化和貨幣走勢相反，需求趨勢出現分歧。</p>
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花旗銀行表示，通脹壓力提高了市場對加息的預期；同時對短期黃金走勢保持謹慎態度