<p>海通國際發佈報告稱，古茗 (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%) 空頭頭寸為 5103 萬美元；比例為 35.012%。該公司最近召開了 2026 年合作伙伴大會。該券商認為，公司短期內高基數壓力逐漸顯現，但中長期增長戰略明確，擴展空間充足。在近期運營方面，整體表現仍在正常範圍內，但同店壓力客觀存在。5 月至 8 月的時期將是關鍵，公司將採取多項措施控制同店銷售的下降。從 4 月到 5 月，由於天氣因素和外賣需求下降速度超出預期，同店增長環比放緩，加盟商利潤略有下降。然而，通過迴歸堂食策略和通過提高線上價格縮小外賣價格差距，公司改善了線上線下渠道的有效收入收集。加盟商利潤仍然可觀。外賣需求下降速度快於預期，外賣佔總銷售額的約 50% 至 55%。</p>
<p>在產品類別方面，咖啡已成為一個重要的增量細分市場。在 2026 年第一季度，咖啡佔總杯數銷售的 15% 至 20%，每家門店的日均銷售量之前約為 60 到 80 杯，目前約為 80 到 90 杯。年末目標為每家門店每天 120 杯。早餐場景也是一個純增量業務。該券商認為，第六代門店的推出與消費者習慣的變化及公司的未來商業戰略相一致。</p>
<p>在成本方面，油價以及倉儲和物流的短期干擾仍在可控範圍內。原材料結構相對多樣化，茉莉花等某些原料的成本下降，加上持續的降本增效，可以幫助抵消壓力。為了推動年度三大業務舉措，公司計劃將 2025 年的加盟折扣和裝修支持、外賣促銷、咖啡擴展以及新產品發佈和活動的補貼從人民幣 2.3 億元增加到 2026 年的 3 億元。品牌推廣和用户增長投資將從 2025 年的 3 億元上升到 2026 年的 4 億元。全年利潤指引保持穩定。</p>
<p>關於行業競爭，茶飲行業繼續呈現多層次價格和品牌共存的局面，領先企業之間的競爭相對穩定。中檔品牌從千家門店擴展到萬家門店將面臨更大的供應鏈管理、區域擴展和運營挑戰。該券商預計 2026 年將是咖啡競爭加劇的第一年。雖然咖啡價格在短期內不太可能反彈，但整體市場將擴大，產品供應將更加多樣化。公司在咖啡細分市場已經具備一定的先發優勢。</p>
<p>該券商基本維持 2026-2028 年的收入預測，分別為人民幣 165 億元、205 億元和 245 億元，年增長率為 28%、24% 和 20%。調整後的淨利潤預計為人民幣 32.4 億元、40.1 億元和 50.1 億元，年增長率為 26%、24% 和 25%，調整後的淨利潤率為 19.6%、19.6% 和 20.4%。維持 2026 年 20 倍市盈率估值，相應的合理目標市值為 736 億港元。目標價從 30.8 港元上調至 31.7 港元，維持跑贏大市評級。(ha/da)(香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026 年 5 月 21 日 16:25。)</p>

古茗

<p>海通國際已將古茗的目標價格從 30.8 港元上調至 31.7 港元，維持 “跑贏大市” 評級。報告強調，儘管面臨短期壓力，古茗仍有明確的中長期增長戰略。公司計劃增強特許經營支持並擴展咖啡業務，預計在 2026-2028 年間實現穩定的利潤指引和顯著的收入增長</p>

<p>Haitong International issued a report stating that GUMING (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%)  Short selling $51.03M; Ratio 35.012%  recently held its 2026 Partner Conference. The broker believes the companys short-term high base pressure is gradually emerging, but its medium- to long-term growth strategy is clear with ample room for expansion. In terms of near-term operations, overall performance remains within a normal range, while same-store pressure objectively exists. The period from May to August will be critical, and the company will adopt multiple measures to control the decline in same-store sales. From April to May, due to weather factors and a faster-than-expected decline in food delivery demand, same-store growth slowed on a QoQ basis, and franchisee profits saw a slight decrease. However, through a return-to-dine-in strategy and narrowing delivery price gaps by raising online prices, the company improved effective revenue collection across online and offline channels. Franchisee profits remain considerable. Delivery demand has declined faster than previously expected, with delivery accounting for about 50% to 55% of total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海通國際發佈報告稱，古茗 (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%) 空頭頭寸為 5103 萬美元；比例為 35.012%。該公司最近召開了 2026 年合作伙伴大會。該券商認為，公司短期內高基數壓力逐漸顯現，但中長期增長戰略明確，擴展空間充足。在近期運營方面，整體表現仍在正常範圍內，但同店壓力客觀存在。5 月至 8 月的時期將是關鍵，公司將採取多項措施控制同店銷售的下降。從 4 月到 5 月，由於天氣因素和外賣需求下降速度超出預期，同店增長環比放緩，加盟商利潤略有下降。然而，通過迴歸堂食策略和通過提高線上價格縮小外賣價格差距，公司改善了線上線下渠道的有效收入收集。加盟商利潤仍然可觀。外賣需求下降速度快於預期，外賣佔總銷售額的約 50% 至 55%。</p>
</div><p>In terms of product categories, coffee has become an important incremental segment. In 1Q26, coffee accounted for 15% to 20% of total cups sold, with daily sales per store previously at about 60 to 80 cups and currently around 80 to 90 cups. The year-end target is 120 cups per store per day. The breakfast scenario is also a purely incremental business. The broker believes the rollout of sixth-generation stores aligns with changes in consumer habits and the companys future business strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在產品類別方面，咖啡已成為一個重要的增量細分市場。在 2026 年第一季度，咖啡佔總杯數銷售的 15% 至 20%，每家門店的日均銷售量之前約為 60 到 80 杯，目前約為 80 到 90 杯。年末目標為每家門店每天 120 杯。早餐場景也是一個純增量業務。該券商認為，第六代門店的推出與消費者習慣的變化及公司的未來商業戰略相一致。</p>
</div><p>On the cost side, there are short-term disruptions from oil prices and warehousing and logistics, but these remain manageable overall. The raw material structure is relatively diversified, and declining costs of certain ingredients such as jasmine flowers, along with ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, can help offset pressures. To drive its three main business initiatives for the year, the company plans to increase subsidies for franchise discounts and renovation support, delivery promotion, coffee expansion, and new product launches and campaigns from RMB230 million in 2025 to RMB300 million in 2026. Brand promotion and user growth investment will rise from RMB300 million in 2025 to RMB400 million in 2026. Full-year profit guidance remains stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在成本方面，油價以及倉儲和物流的短期干擾仍在可控範圍內。原材料結構相對多樣化，茉莉花等某些原料的成本下降，加上持續的降本增效，可以幫助抵消壓力。為了推動年度三大業務舉措，公司計劃將 2025 年的加盟折扣和裝修支持、外賣促銷、咖啡擴展以及新產品發佈和活動的補貼從人民幣 2.3 億元增加到 2026 年的 3 億元。品牌推廣和用户增長投資將從 2025 年的 3 億元上升到 2026 年的 4 億元。全年利潤指引保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>Regarding industry competition, the tea beverage sector continues to feature multiple price tiers and brands coexisting, with relatively stable competition among leading players. Mid-tier brands expanding from over one thousand stores to ten thousand stores will face significantly greater challenges in supply chain management, regional expansion, and operations. The broker expects 2026 to mark the first year of intense competition in coffee. While coffee prices are unlikely to rebound in the short term, the overall market will expand and product supply will become more diverse. The company already has a certain first-mover advantage in the coffee segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於行業競爭，茶飲行業繼續呈現多層次價格和品牌共存的局面，領先企業之間的競爭相對穩定。中檔品牌從千家門店擴展到萬家門店將面臨更大的供應鏈管理、區域擴展和運營挑戰。該券商預計 2026 年將是咖啡競爭加劇的第一年。雖然咖啡價格在短期內不太可能反彈，但整體市場將擴大，產品供應將更加多樣化。公司在咖啡細分市場已經具備一定的先發優勢。</p>
</div><p>The broker largely maintains its 2026-2028 revenue forecasts at RMB16.5 billion, RMB20.5 billion and RMB24.5 billion, representing YoY growth of 28%, 24% and 20%, respectively. Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB3.24 billion, RMB4.01 billion and RMB5.01 billion, representing YoY growth of 26%, 24% and 25%, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 19.6%, 19.6% and 20.4%. Maintaining a 20x PE valuation for 2026, the corresponding reasonable target market capitalization is HKD73.6 billion. The TP is raised from HKD30.8 to HKD31.7, with an Outperform rating maintained. (ha/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-21 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該券商基本維持 2026-2028 年的收入預測，分別為人民幣 165 億元、205 億元和 245 億元，年增長率為 28%、24% 和 20%。調整後的淨利潤預計為人民幣 32.4 億元、40.1 億元和 50.1 億元，年增長率為 26%、24% 和 25%，調整後的淨利潤率為 19.6%、19.6% 和 20.4%。維持 2026 年 20 倍市盈率估值，相應的合理目標市值為 736 億港元。目標價從 30.8 港元上調至 31.7 港元，維持跑贏大市評級。(ha/da)(香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026 年 5 月 21 日 16:25。)</p>
</div>

海通國際將古茗的目標價上調至 31.7 港元，並維持其跑贏大市的評級