<div id="readability-page-1"><div>Following Japan's ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe's disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 2023)...<img width="500" height="222" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/0%20-%202026-05-21T064123.819.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/0%20-%202026-05-21T064123.819.jpg"/>...with prices surging...<img width="500" height="222" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/0%20-%202026-05-21T064227.718.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/0%20-%202026-05-21T064227.718.jpg"/>All eyes are on the US 'soft' survey data for signs of divergence (or contagion).With US 'hard' data improving notably, the preliminary soft survey data for May was mixed with improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector.<ul><li>Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 50.9 (April: 51.0). 2-month low.</li><li>Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (April: 54.5).48-month high.</li></ul><img width="500" height="310" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmF12E.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmF12E.jpg"/>Source: Bloomberg“The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the business surveys,&#34; according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence:<blockquote>&#34;The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook. </blockquote>Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter...<img width="500" height="332" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026-05-21_06-48-52.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026-05-21_06-48-52.jpg"/>However, Williamson notes that even this subdued pace of growth may not last.<blockquote>&#34;On average, over the past three months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever. </blockquote>Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices. <blockquote>&#34;Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the economy cools.”</blockquote><img width="500" height="321" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026-05-21_06-52-38.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026-05-21_06-52-38.jpg"/>Finally, while the composite numbers are not that encouraging, on a relative basis, US looks dominant...<img width="500" height="310" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm2F78_0.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm2F78_0.jpg"/>Maybe trump was right about the impact of the war on everyone else? (Just don't tell anyone who drives!)</div></div>

標普全球

美國製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）達到 48 個月來的最高點 55.3，而服務業 PMI 降至 50.9，顯示出經濟信號的混合。標普全球的首席商業經濟學家指出，成本上升和通貨膨脹正在壓縮需求，預計第二季度國內生產總值（GDP）增長將難以超過 1%。儘管面臨挑戰，美國經濟相較於日本和歐洲顯得相對強勁，後者正面臨顯著的經濟下滑

US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink

- 日本和歐洲 PMI 指標表現不佳，關注美國軟數據的分歧跡象。  
- 美國製造業 PMI 上升至 48 個月最高，服務業 PMI 略降至兩個月低點。  
- 中東戰爭對經濟影響明顯，企業活動增長乏力，通脹壓力持續。

美國 PMI 引領全球，製造業達到四年來的高點，而服務業則出現下滑