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由於油價回落以及印度央行的干預,盧比創下了兩個月來的最大單日漲幅

Business Standard
2026年5月29日 早上06:30
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印度盧比在兩個月內錄得最大單日漲幅,收於每美元 95 盧比,主要受到原油價格下跌和印度央行干預的推動。國有銀行可能出售美元以抵消到期的非交割遠期合約(NDF)頭寸的需求。由於美國與伊朗停火的希望,布倫特原油價格下跌近 2%。與此同時,由於黃金重估損失和外匯資產下降,印度的外匯儲備降至一年低點,達到 6813.8 億美元

The rupee posted its sharpest single-day gain in nearly two months on Friday, since April 2, on the back of a decline in crude oil prices and likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), dealers said.

The rupee settled at 95 per dollar, its highest level since May 8, up 0.73 per cent from the previous close of 95.70 per dollar. The Indian unit was the best-performing Asian currency on Friday, followed by the Thai baht (0.37 per cent).

Brent crude prices fell nearly 2 per cent to around $91 per barrel on expectations of easing supply disruptions after reports suggested the United States and Iran could extend a ceasefire agreement and resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market participants said state-owned banks likely sold dollars on behalf of the RBI, helping offset pressure from elevated dollar demand linked to maturing positions in the non-deliverable forwards market.

“The RBI intervened ahead of market open, which led to the rupee opening stronger by around 20 paise compared to NDF levels,” said a dealer at a state-owned bank.

The rupee appreciated to as high as 94.96 per dollar during the day, its highest intra-day level since May 11. The local currency had fallen to a low of 96.96 per dollar during the previous week. However, after falling to its lowest level, the Indian unit was able to cut most of its losses. In May, the rupee was marginally down 0.09 per cent against the dollar.

The rupee has depreciated almost 10 per cent in the last one year. In 2026, it has fallen 5.4 per cent against the dollar.

“The Indian rupee outperformed its Asian peers, bolstered by falling crude oil prices and suspected interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI),” said Dilip Parmar, research analyst, HDFC Securities.

“The currency also recorded its largest single-day gain since April 2, driven by aggressive central bank action and market optimism surrounding a tentative US-Iran ceasefire extension. From a technical perspective, spot USDINR is expected to trend lower towards the 94.50 to 94.30 levels, with immediate resistance holding at 95.70,” Parmar added.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a more than one-year low of $681.38 billion during the week ended May 22, the lowest since the week ended April 11, 2025.

The total reserves fell on the back of a decline in gold reserves and foreign currency assets during the reported week.

Foreign exchange reserves have declined by $47.11 billion from the record high of $728.49 billion touched in the week ended February 27 of the current year.

Gold reserves fell by $4.5 billion during the reported week on the back of revaluation losses. Gold prices fell by 0.68 per cent to $4,509/oz.

Foreign currency assets fell by $2.87 billion to $543 billion during the reported week.

“The fall was because of revaluation losses due to the fall in gold prices,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, economist at IDFC First Bank. “The RBI could have sold around $1 billion, and the rest is a revaluation loss,” she added.

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