Analysis Dog

XIDI Zhijia's commercial vehicle autonomous driving track has achieved commercial deployment in multiple ports and mining areas, supported by domestic demand for embodied intelligent infrastructure.

Paradigm Intelligent's industrial AI robots are closely integrated with factory digitalization, with strong downstream customer stickiness.

Dobot's collaborative robots have entered the medical and light industrial sectors and have reached the scale-up stage.

Black Sesame's automotive-grade AI chips are the core of local substitution for intelligent driving computing power. The autonomous driving narrative has regained attention this year as tech sentiment recovers post-ceasefire, but the timeline for the profitability inflection point still needs to be observed😪

Recently, space concept stocks have suddenly taken off collectively. These cold tickets like SPCE, LUNR, RDW, ASTC are getting more and more aggressive, which is really confusing. Honestly, space stocks once felt abandoned by the market, and now they suddenly get a new lease on life. It's really hard to understand 😥

$Virgin Galactic(SPCE.US) $Intuitive Machines(LUNR.US) $Redwire(RDW.US) $Astrotech(ASTC.US)

IBM is indeed still moving at the pace of an old-timer, steady as a rock every day, with gains being just that little bit, making my heart that yearns for overnight riches restless only to be slapped back to reality... On the other hand, Intuit has been quite eye-catching these past two days, +3 points, giving some comfort to the faith of someone like me who just wanted to add some defensive stocks at the beginning of the year. Fintech still has some room for imagination, but seeing it rise also makes me doubt if I bought too early... Let's just hold the portfolio with a Zen mindset, no more tinkering, slowly endure🤔

These 2x leveraged oil and gas ETFs have been really volatile lately. On one hand, UCO fell nearly 2%, while the short ETF SCO went in the opposite direction and rose over 2%. Over in natural gas, BOIL is up again. Combined, it's like riding a rollercoaster.

Recently, the news flow for crude oil and natural gas has been too chaotic, swinging back and forth, chasing price levels. For those of you playing with leverage, always remember your survival line. Don't get knocked out by a big green or red candle overnight 🙏

PayPal, Cloudflare, and CrowdStrike all plummeted today. After holding for a week, it feels like all that effort was for nothing. It seems the market just doesn't favor these "former growth stars" anymore... I'm genuinely worried this kind of stock will slowly become marginalized, but the thought of cutting losses is really hard to accept 😰

The market today was truly surreal: Ganfeng Lithium, Mingming Hen Mang, and East Buy all surged collectively, like stepping hard on the accelerator, while Dazhong Public Utilities took a nosedive in the opposite direction. It can only be said that capital in the past two days went straight for concepts and liquidity. China Tourism Group Duty Free was extremely zen, not moving a muscle... Today was another day witnessing faith and missing out on the rally 🙈

The market has seen a slight pullback again over the past two days. Even those 'auntie-level' ETFs like $VG S&P 500(VOO.US) and $iShares Core S&P 500(IVV.US) have followed suit and dropped. Dividend-focused ones like $Schwab US Div Eq(SCHD.US) and $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ.US) couldn't hold up either. It seems no matter how diversified your U.S. stock portfolio is, no one can escape when the market hammers down. Ironically, the most stable performers turned out to be those 'lying flat' short-term U.S. Treasury bond ETFs like $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US), which rise little but fall even less... Don't ask. Right now, it just feels like 'gaining on the index but not making money.' All the returns come from just holding on passively.

These areas like chips, interconnects, manufacturing, and semiconductors have been really exciting lately. $Amphenol(APH.US), $Seagate Tech(STX.US), and $Celestica(CLS.US) are all dropping like this today, each one making my heart race more than the last. I'm getting burned and can only watch. On the other hand, $Corning(GLW.US) can hold up and even rise against the market trend. Is glass really a necessity after all? Seeing Corning pull up in the final trading session makes me want to go all in to relieve the boredom, but I'm afraid it would just be another self-inflicted humiliation. This market situation right now is: those who are up watch the show, those who are down reflect on themselves... Ah, only the data cable is eternal. Stay still like a mountain, hold positions with a Zen-like attitude.

Today, watching $Tradr 2X Long Lite Daily ETF(LITX.US) and $GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF(INTW.US), these 2x leveraged tech and semiconductor ETFs get hammered, I feel quite calm inside. After all, leveraged stocks have been a rollercoaster lately; whoever chases gets hurt.

$T-REX 2X Long BMNR Daily Target ETF(BMNU.US) also followed Bitcoin down on its knees. Consider it a mental exercise... Meanwhile, $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US) rose a bit, but capital is fleeing. This wave of market sentiment: overtly fearful, covertly competitive.

$GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF(CONI.US) shorting $Coinbase(COIN.US) making money would be a blessing, but who dares say they can consistently catch the right direction now? As the saying goes, to get rich quick in this environment, you first have to withstand massive losses.

The AI sector is insanely competitive. $TTM Tech(TTMI.US) and $Seagate Tech(STX.US) keep hitting new highs one after another. Missing out on this rally feels worse than being trapped in a losing position. I hesitated and didn't chase TTM last time, and now a big green candle slaps me in the face. Seagate is almost robbing a bank... With this collective surge in the AI hardware chain, who dares to say hard drives are obsolete anymore? I've noticed that as long as I hold back from buying, they just keep rising. It's so tempting to watch, but I'm afraid to jump in for fear of a pullback. The market is merciless, the anxiety of holding positions is draining—it's a lose-lose situation.

$COSCO SHIP HOLD(01919.HK) has become a bit interesting again recently. Any movement from Trump's side can affect port freight rates. Honestly, such short-term stimulus, purely chasing rallies based on news, is a bit too much for the heart, but it really hurts to miss out on this wave. However, shipping is still a cyclical stock. The right approach is probably to trade less and watch more.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) and $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) have been moving in such a funny way recently. The leveraged TMF barely budges; it feels like the faith of Treasury bulls is almost worn out. It's unbearable that the Dow keeps hitting new highs every day, dragging $Cboe Volatility Index(.VIX.US) down to the ground. Risk-hedging ETFs like $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US) and $Pro Vix Shrt Fut(VIXY.US) keep falling, and my portfolio is all red. Honestly, with the market being so fearless, it's better to just keep a small core position for peace of mind. Don't expect a big win; stability is enough. Buying volatility now is like fighting the trend head-on. Short-term trading is really easy to get depressed about; for the long term, just consider it tuition.

GOOX has also been a tough story lately. Google's earnings report brought no surprises, and the 2x ETF directly followed the sell-off. Tech stocks really haven't had smooth sailing this year. Honestly, I was just thinking about adding to my position a while ago, but luckily I held back. The market turned on a dime these past two days, and my mentality almost broke. The US stock market also switches between bull and bear faces; if you're not careful, you'll be left holding the bag (lit. become all green). Let's wait and see, don't let emotions dictate your trades.

Several semiconductor/optical companies had a rough night, with Tianyue Advanced and Innoscience continuing to fall. It seems the semiconductor sector hasn't fully heated up yet, but the faithful fans are holding strong. On the other hand, Sunny Optical's profit alert + buyback this round is truly enviable—the FOMO feels so real. I'm basically just passively watching Cambridge Technology's paper gains now, hoping the AI sector can show some strength. As for Foxconn Interconnect Technology's insider selling—utterly ridiculous. Working folks are exhausted.

Haven't bought $Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares(NVDU.US) yet, seeing the crazy turnover of leveraged ETFs makes me nervous. NVDA's rise is tempting, but double volatility seems too risky for beginners 😭

Why have U.S. stocks continued to decline recently, while the consumer and healthcare sectors stand out?

Hong Kong stocks: have risen significantly, but valuations remain very low; the issue is that they have always been low. U.S. stocks: valuations are very high, which may contain risks.

The outlook is not very bearish: the reason is that costs are controllable (will decrease year by year), but it may affect the short-term stock price trend.

Tianfeng: Core business valued at 27 times PE, automotive sector at 3 times PS, totaling 1.04 trillion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of 41.7 yuan.

The proportion of private enterprises in total exports is 64.9% (foreign enterprises account for 27.4%); the total market value of private enterprises accounts for 37%.

And Baidu once dropped by 7.5%

PS: Driven by DeepSeek, the AI boom continues and propels the semiconductor industry to thrive. Source: Tianfeng Securities. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) The company's market value recently plummeted by $60 billion, indicating the significant impact of DeepSeek on the industry. Although Nvidia has established a reputation for leading AI hardware development with advanced chips, DeepSeek has demonstrated that significant progress can be made even without substantial computing resources. This achievement challenges the long-held belief that "hardware advantages determine market success"...

Recently, $BYD(002594.SZ) $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK) announced at the intelligent strategy launch conference that all models will be equipped with the "Eye of God" intelligent driving solution to promote the popularization of intelligent driving functions. Core viewpoints: Strong data and R&D capabilities support the rapid iteration of the intelligent driving system. Data foundation: BYD has data from over 4 million L2 and above level vehicles, as well as China's largest vehicle cloud database, providing strong support for large model training. R&D capabilities: A team of over 5,000 intelligent driving engineers, with an annual investment of 100 billion in R&D...

$BLOKS(00325.HK) is not subject to trading restrictions

$MINIEYE(02431.HK)

Youjia Innovation is set to become the fourth "smart driving unicorn company" to enter the capital market within two months, following Horizon Robotics, WeRide, and Pony.ai, and will also be the last smart driving IPO project of the year.

Youjia Innovation plans to issue 39,190,000 H shares in this IPO, with a subscription range of HKD 17.00 to HKD 20.20 per share. Based on the upper limit of the subscription range, Youjia Innovation could raise approximately HKD 790 million through this IPO.

It is worth noting that Youjia Innovation has introduced two cornerstone investors in this issuance: Kang Cheng Heng International Investment Co., Ltd. and Horizon Together Holding Ltd., with a total subscription exceeding HKD 540 million. Among them, Horizon Together Holding Ltd. is actually Horizon Robotics (9660.HK).

Prior to the IPO, Youjia Innovation had already received investments from well-known institutions such as NavInfo, Zeyi Investment, National Development Fund for Manufacturing Transformation, CICC Capital, Yuanjing Capital, Harvest Investment, PwC Capital, Dongfang Fuhai, Cathay Capital, and Boyuan Capital.

Founded in 2014, Youjia Innovation is a Chinese supplier of smart driving and smart cockpit solutions, covering key aspects of the driving experience, including navigation, parking, and in-cabin functions, and gradually developing smart driving solutions with increasing automation levels from L0 to L4.

As of June 30, 2024, Youjia Innovation has engaged in mass production with 29 automakers for 94 vehicle models, including seven of the top ten domestic automakers by sales; as of December 10, 2024, Youjia Innovation has cumulatively engaged in mass production for 35 automakers.

According to data from ZhiShi Consulting, based on revenue from L0 to L2+ solutions in 2023, Youjia Innovation ranks fourth among all emerging technology companies in China. Additionally, Youjia Innovation is also developing and testing L4 autonomous driving capabilities, which are expected to deliver the iRobo solution in the first quarter of 2025.

It should be noted that Youjia Innovation's progressive development route from L0 to L4 provides it with a differentiated competitive advantage, allowing it to quickly meet customer needs and effectively achieve the scalability and mass production of solutions—for example, Youjia Innovation obtained the point of contact for an L2+ solution for a high-end coupe from an automaker in 2021, which went into production in 2023. Subsequently, Youjia Innovation obtained a new point of contact for L2 and L2+ solutions for a medium SUV model from the same automaker, with the L2 solution going into production in 2024. In addition, Youjia Innovation obtained points of contact for four models in an automaker's product line, first providing an L2+ solution for its compact crossover in 2022, followed by L2 and L2+ solutions for its medium SUV and compact SUV models in 2023, and recently providing L2 and L2+ solutions for its new SUV model in 2024.

It is noteworthy that while continuously strengthening its domestic market efforts, Youjia Innovation's globalization strategy is also advancing—as of June 30, 2024, Youjia Innovation's solutions have been selected by six automakers for 15 export models under development, and have achieved SOP for 21 export models for four automakers, with these export models being sold to regions including the EU, Australia, the UK, and Southeast Asia.

In fact, since its inception, Youjia Innovation has focused on the forefront development of overseas laws and regulations and proactively carried out R&D activities. It is also the only smart driving solution supplier in mainland China to be awarded the "2023 Supplier Innovation Award" by ZF Group. In November of this year, Youjia Innovation assisted one of its automaker clients in obtaining EU General Safety Regulation (GSR) Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW) system certification and Driver Fatigue and Attention Warning System (DDAW) certification. According to data from ZhiShi Consulting, Youjia Innovation is one of the first suppliers of Driver Monitoring System (DMS) solutions in China to successfully help automakers obtain EU GSR ADDW and DDAW certifications.

In terms of financial data, from 2021 to 2023, Youjia Innovation's revenue was RMB 175 million, RMB 279 million, and RMB 476 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 64.9%. In the first half of this year, Youjia Innovation's revenue increased by 44.5% from RMB 164 million in the same period of 2023 to RMB 237 million.

From 2021 to 2023, Youjia Innovation's gross margin was 9.7%, 12.0%, and 14.3%; in the first half of this year, Youjia Innovation's gross margin increased nearly 6 percentage points from 8.3% in the same period of 2023 to 14.1%.

Additionally, thanks to the synergistic development of its three major businesses—smart driving, smart cockpit, and vehicle-road collaboration—and the improvement of gross margins in its core business, Youjia Innovation's adjusted net loss rate significantly decreased from 74.8% and 73.7% in 2021 and 2022 to 38.8% in 2023, and narrowed by about 40 percentage points from 74.2% in the same period of 2023 to 34.8%.

In fact, the smart driving solution industry in China is rapidly growing, and domestic suppliers are gaining market share through rapid product iteration and strong product adaptability. According to data from ZhiShi Consulting, the market share of domestic smart driving solution suppliers increased from 6% in 2019 to 18% in 2023.