Gary Black Tracker
2025.03.20 22:02

$耐克(NKE.US) -4.6% AH (no position) after giving a dismal 4Q outlook as new CEO Elliott Hill reset revenue and gross margin expectations lower while re-focusing Nike’s marketing message on the athlete.

3Q actuals:

- Rev $11.27B (-9% YoY) vs $11.03B (-11% YoY) est

- Gross margin 41.5% vs 41.9% est

- EPS $.54 vs $.28 est

- Repurchased just $499M shares vs $1,050M avg over the past 4 qtrs.

4Q guidance:

- Revs mid-teens decline vs -12% exp

- Gross margin -400bp to -500bp vs -340bp exp

FY’26 (starts June 2025):

- Same 4Q headwinds continuing into FY’26 (vs WS rev 0% est growth, gross margins expected to grow 80bp in FY’26)

- Digital traffic double digit declines vs direct to consumer rev growth -1.5% exp

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