Anthropic

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Dolphin Research

Anthropic sell-side briefing: key disclosures; is expectations mgmt underway?

On Nov 10, two sell-side analysts from $Anthropic(ANT.US)'s IPO syndicate (one covering software, one internet) hosted a Q&A. Although some key figures were their own estimates, the timing suggests a degree of management endorsement, making it a useful read-through for Anthropic's near- to mid-term growth outlook. Dolphin Research's takeaway: soft near term but more upbeat over the medium to long run (vs. already-trimmed expectations), underscoring a company with bold monetization ambitions.

ANTHRO OP IC
Anthropic Sell-side Call: Key Numbers ($) Item Figure Note Oct 2026 ARR ohim $81
ARR Is a Peak-Month Print, Not a Floor: Q4 Guide Runs ~5% Below October esearch
Anthropic's~$1tn Compute Commitments: Who Gets Paid ($bn) Disclosed buckets (9/3+2
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Dolphin Research

Anthropic: From 'cash burner' to 'house-poor'; the trillion-dollar journey is still far off

On Oct 26, $Anthropic.US finally filed its prospectus. The opening page reads like a study in contrasts. Dolphin Research wrote in Jan in 'Deep Dive on Minimax and Zhipu: Large Models...'

On one hand, Q2 revenue was $11.56 bn (+14x YoY). It posted GAAP operating profit for the first time.

On the other hand, over the past ten months it signed compute contracts totaling nearly $1 tn. That equals 22x its annualized revenue.

ANTHROPV
渠道与客户:一半走云厂商,增长由大企业客户驱动 Go-to-Market: Half Through the Clouds, Growth Led by Lar
收入同比15倍、算力费用4倍:2Q26首次经营盈利(十亿美元) Revenue Grew 15x YoY While Compute Grew 4x: Firs
推理毛利85%,被训练和渠道吃掉:2026年上半年按功能口径的利润表 Serving Is Highly Profitable; Training and Di+6